基于低碳视角的辽宁经济发展与环境污染关系研究

基于低碳经济的视角探讨了辽宁经济发展与环境污染之间的关系,利用1990-2010年辽宁省环境污染各项指标与人均GDP、产业结构、人口密度和环境污染治理投资的样本数据进行实证分析。结果表明:辽宁省的环境质量与人均GDP之间的库兹涅茨假说成立,同时产业结构、人口密度和环境污染治理投资会对环境污染各项指标产生不同的影响。     

Engels’ pause: Technical change, capital accumulation, and inequality in the british industrial revolution

The paper reviews the macroeconomic data describing the British economy from 1760 to 1913 and shows that it passed through a two stage evolution of inequality. In the first half of the 19th century, the real wage stagnated while output per worker expanded. The profit rate doubled and the share of profits in national income expanded at the expense of labour and land. After the middle of the 19th century, real wages began to grow in line with productivity, and the profit rate and factor shares stabilized. An integrated model of growth and distribution is developed to explain these trends. The model includes an aggregate production function that explains the distribution of income, while a savings function in which savings depended on property income governs accumulation. Simulations with the model show that technical progress was the prime mover behind the industrial revolution. Capital accumulation was a necessary complement. The surge in inequality was intrinsic to the growth process: technical change increased the demand for capital and raised the profit rate and capital’s share. The rise in profits, in turn, sustained the industrial revolution by financing the necessary capital accumulation. After the middle of the 19th century, accumulation had caught up with the requirements of technology and wages rose in line with productivity.     

江苏造纸业经济增长与环境污染关系的实证分析

文章基于EKC(Environmental Kuznets Curve)计量模型,运用"十五"以来江苏省纸和纸板产量以及造纸业工业废水排放量、工业废气排放量、工业源SO2排放量、工业烟(粉)尘排放量和CO2排放量等特征污染物排放数据,对江苏造纸业经济增长与环境污染之间的关系进行了实证分析。结果表明:江苏造纸业主要特征污染物排放量随着纸和纸板产量的增加呈现出"N"型的曲折波动。究其原因,"十一五"以来快速增长的产业规模及其能耗总量,是推动江苏造纸业污染物排放重拾升势的主要原因。因此,优化能源结构、提高能源效率,加大对能耗和特征污染物排放的总量控制,以及加快绿色新产品开发等,将是促进江苏造纸业经济与环境协调发展的可行途径。     

典型城市工业污染排放演变及驱动因素分析——以无锡为例

描述无锡2001—2020年工业废水、废气与烟(粉)尘排放量时空演变后,运用LMDI模型对其影响因素展开分析。研究表明：样本期内,工业废水与烟(粉)尘排放量总体下降,废气排放量数倍增加;当前,市区与江阴污染排放量较多,尤其是废水与废气。经济规模导致工业污染排放量增加、产业结构使其减少、技术水平作用方向不同,且3个因素对不同污染物影响效应存在显著差异;从地区角度看,市区与江阴贡献较大,4个时段不同污染排放量增减方向与驱动主因(因素贡献与地区贡献)也不同。     

基于产业关联视角的湖南省水环境污染经济分析

利用湖南省2007年、2012年和2015年的水污染排放数据与2007-2012-2015年投入产出接续表,通过区域经济环境投入产出模型分析了2007-2015年湖南省经济发展与水污染排放的成因及其变化。结果表明,湖南省水污染排放总体虽有一定改善,但各行业排放仍处于不稳定状况。随着经济发展一些支柱产业作为隐形排放源值得重视。因此,湖南省要实现经济发展与环境保护双赢的关键是加快产业结构转型升级,加强污染物治理技术运用,加大水污染物排放制度约束力度。     

中国经济增长与环境污染之间关系的理论解释与贝叶斯回归分析

环境污染在两个方面改变了经济增长模型,一方面它是产出的联合产品,另一方面它给消费者带来负效用。我们分析了以下几个问题：环境保护与经济增长是否相容;长期来看无污染积累的可持续增长是否可能;环境对经济增长的影响;如果引入环境因素,我们关注的关键变量如：收入、消费、资本以及环境污染的最优路径如何变化,据此可以推出哪些可驳斥的推断;观测数据与环境库茨涅茨曲线的理论推断特征是否相符。文章根据标准的经济学理论基础假设构建了一个理论模型,在设定了偏好、技术、禀赋、信息后,求出动态一般均衡解路径。使用环境污染的观测数据,附加关键参数的先验分布,运用贝叶斯推断求出参数的后验分布对理论模型的推断进行验证。文章的主要贡献是对环境库茨涅茨曲线采用了不同于传统回归分析的贝叶斯回归技术,并得出了有意义的分析结果。     

中国工业污染环境治理投资与经济增长关系的实证研究——基于10省市面板数据的分析

根据《中国统计年鉴》(2003-2012),选取了国内10个省市工业污染环境治理投资与省内生产总值的面板数据进行实证研究。论文通过建立工业污染环境治理投资与经济增长的长期均衡模型来说明工业污染治理在长期能作用于各种因素从而带动经济增长,并通过建立短期波动模型来体现不同省市在短期受内部和外部制约因素作用的差异,得出了各省市两者之间的长期趋势方程与短期波动方程。结果显示,长期来看,当治理投入增长较少时(增长低于一倍),对经济的增长有反作用;当治理投入增长较多时(增长高于一倍),对经济具有增长作用,但随着治理投入越大,所带来的经济增长效率呈现下降趋势。但是,由于每个省市所受的内外因素的影响不同,在短期内会对长期均衡方程有所偏离。这对于污染治理决策具有重要借鉴意义。     

Double-edged effects of the technology gap and technology spillovers: Evidence from the Chinese industrial sector

This paper proposes a new insight that the technology gap plays double-edged roles in the technology spillovers of foreign direct investment (FDI) through two channels, technology choice set and technology absorptive capability. Applying a multiple-threshold model, we examine the non-linear relationship between the technology gap and technology spillovers based on the provincial panel data of the Chinese industrial sector during 1993–2006. The empirical results support the hypothesis of two thresholds, which are 0.3071 and 0.5214 in terms of the technology gap respectively. The estimated thresholds indicate the sufficient absorptive capability is the premise for FDI technology spillovers. Moreover, it implies the marginal decrease of FDI technology spillover effects in the long run.     

Regional job-turnover and industrial policy. a note on a potential time pattern of regional industrial policies and their job effects - the case of the german city-state of bremen

Many regions have experienced long-run economic fluctuations generated by the life cycles of their dominant industrial clusters. During the downswings in the 1970s and 1980s, proactive structural policies were typically launched in German regions to combat job losses in their core clusters and to create new jobs in new industries. With respect to the German State of Bremen, this paper provides empirical evidence of: (1) a long-run regional downswing; (2) the potential job effects of proactive regional industrial policy programmes in terms of increasing regional employment, by safeguarding jobs in the regional core industries and creating new jobs in new growth industries; and (3) a time pattern in the job effects, which are related to the different generations of programmes.     

环境质量与中国城市发展沉浮:人力资本视角的解释

环境质量日益成为影响中国城市品质和高质量发展的重要因素。本文采用中国人口普查、夜间灯光和基于卫星反演的大气污染等数据,分析空气污染引致人力资本选择性流动,进而带来的城市长期经济增长效应。结果发现,空气污染并没有显著影响城市人口规模变化,但是降低了城市经济增速和增长质量。以PM_2.5和SO₂为代表的空气污染导致城市大学及以上学历人口显著流出,进而带来城市人均夜间灯光亮度值和GDP增长率的下降。本文进一步基于“两控区”政策,反向论证了环境规制政策能够带来空气质量改善,从而减缓高人力资本的流出,促进经济增长。本文从经验上分析了环境规制、环境质量、经济增长之间的关系,也为中国城市兴衰格局提供了一个基于环境视角的解释。     

浙江省小企业集群现象产生的历史与文化解释

本文从历史与文化的角度,试对浙江的专业化产业区产生原因给予解释,以期对人们理解经济现象和把握经济的运行规律有所帮助。     

研发强度、技术转移及能源消费:一个文献综述

基于环境方程与现代内生增长理论,采用1953～2009年的时间序列数据对CO2排放量的决定因素进行考察表明:我国CO2排放量与研发强度、技术转移和对外国先进技术的消化吸收能力显著负相关,同时也证实能源消费增长是CO2排放量增长的重要原因。     

The Impact of COVID-19 on Chinese trade and production: An empirical analysis of processing trade with Japan and the US

The COVID-19 pandemic severely disrupted international trade, leading countries to grapple with product shortages and firms to experience major supply chain issues. These challenges increased production costs and significantly contributed to lower trade and higher inflation. In this paper, we examine the impact of COVID-19 on Chinese trade through its two main trading partners: Japan and the US. By differentiating products by product type and processing status, we find evidence that products in the middle of the global supply chain were most affected by the pandemic and that the severity of the shock depends on the partner country’s role in the global supply chain. Additionally, we find that Chinese exports are more impacted than Chinese imports, regardless of processing status. These findings are largely consistent with economic theory. Understanding that the effects of global shocks vary by product and country will help guide policies that minimize supply chain disruptions.