我国煤炭价格与原油价格关系的协整研究

运用单位根检验和协整检验方法,研究我国2007—2011年6月煤炭价格和原油价格的时间序列特征以及两个市场价格之间长期关系。研究发现,我国煤炭价格和原油价格均为非平稳时间序列,但两者之间不具有协整关系。     

我国煤炭需求与应急煤炭储备

今年以来全国煤炭需求总体旺盛，目前仍在高位运行。煤炭工业协会预计今年全国煤炭产量34亿吨、消费量在35亿吨以上，加上净进口量，从数据上看，煤炭供求基本平衡，但国内资源分布不均、煤电体制不顺、运力瓶颈制约等矛盾比较突出，加上近年来极端天气频发等不确定因素，四季度煤炭有效供应难度较大。     

煤炭产量与经济增长——基于山西面板数据协整模型的实证分析

运用协整理论的方法,通过对山西1989-2008年间的煤炭产量与山西国内生产总值之间的关系进行研究,得出如下结论：山西煤炭产量与山西GDP之间存在协整关系;误差修正模型表明二者之间存在长期均衡关系,且误差修正项ECMt-1的系数表明5.15%左右的偏离均衡部分会在一年内得以调整,调整的幅度相对较小;同时,二者具有双向的格兰杰因果关系。本文根据以上结论提出了几条建议,这对经济发展的相关政策制定有一定的理论指导意义。     

2014年我国进口煤炭2.9亿吨下滑10.9%

我国进口煤炭在经历了五年高速增长后,由于一系列限制政策,进口量在2014年出现了较大幅度的下滑。海关总署统计数据显示,我国2014年煤炭进口2.9亿吨,下滑10.9%,同期煤炭价格也下跌15.2%。自2009年中国一举由煤炭净出口国转变成为净进口国,煤炭进口量一路攀升,在2013年再次刷新中国煤炭进口量的新高。     

当前煤炭能源供应紧张的原因及对策

文章从需求过快增长、煤炭供给难以适应、煤炭工业的结构性矛盾引发供给不足、煤炭运输能力的增加仍然滞后、煤炭与电力价格关系不合理等几个方面分析了当前煤炭供应紧张的原因,并提出了相应的对策.     

我国煤炭价格影响因素研究

煤炭是我国最重要的能源,它是国家制定经济政策和企业进行资源配置及生产经营决策的重要基础之一。本文在深入分析煤炭价格影响因素的基础上,以1999年-2008年煤炭年平均售价为因变量,以煤炭年产量、煤炭需求量（选用我国钢铁产量作为替代变量）、全国煤炭铁路运量、全社会煤炭库存量和国际煤炭市场价格5个因素作为备选自变量,利用多元线性回归模型分析方法对煤炭价格进行了分析,收到了比较好的拟合效果,表明了该方法的有效。     

2006年下半年煤炭供需形势预测

2006年下半年煤炭需求增速继续减缓，进口增多出口减少是主要因素；煤炭产量稳步增加，规模企业产出是主要增长动力；煤炭运输能力稳步提高．库存总量持续增加且分布日趋合理，供需形势继续好转．但区域性供需压力仍存。计划电煤供应有所保障且价格稳定，市场煤价将继续高位平稳运行，期间煤炭价格仍有上涨趋势，但上升空间不大。     

内生变量分析视角下的煤炭开采和洗选业效益研究——以山西省为例

为揭示与山西省煤炭开采和洗选业关联的其他行业污染物对煤炭开采和洗选业效益的影响,克服EKC假说只分析收入对环境单向影响的缺陷,研究各变量的内生性;通过协整检验、脉冲响应等检验手段研究煤炭开采和洗选业效益对环境污染的内生性影响,环境污染对收益的反作用,得出其长短期均衡关系和影响力度;从排废水、排废气、排废渣的与煤相关行业和煤炭市场入手,提出了山西煤炭开采和洗选业的发展路径。     

煤企遭遇回款难手握“白条”3300亿

低迷的需求使得今年前7个月,中国煤炭产量和销量同比均出现下降。同时,持续下行的煤炭价格已经让国内多家大型煤炭企业难以承受,出现较大面积的亏损,且亏损面仍在增加。8月19日,中国煤炭工业协会副会长兼秘书长姜智敏在1—7月经济运行通报会上介绍,前7月,全国煤炭产量21.3亿吨,同比减少7800万吨,下降3.5%;全国煤炭销量20.7亿吨,同比减少8400万吨,下降3.9%。并且,与进口煤同比大增14.1%相比,     

我国煤炭及天然气消费与经济增长关系研究

文章以我国煤炭消费指数、天然气消费指数分别与经济增长指数关系为研究对象。首先进行消费收入弹性分析,其次结合我国GDP指数建立协整与误差修正模型,从长短期两个方面探究能源消耗与经济增长之间的联系,并进行Granger因果关系检验。结果显示,两种能源矿产的消费指数均与经济增长之间存在长期均衡关系,而短期均衡则显示经济增长对于煤炭消费的依赖程度大幅度减弱,而对于天然气消费的依赖度则趋于平稳。另外,格兰杰检验结果显示近几年我国经济增长与煤炭消费、天然气消费互相没有格兰杰因果联系。说明替代能源对于经济增长的支撑作用目前还没有形成,而传统矿产资源消费对经济增长的助力和支撑力在逐渐减弱。     

How Aid Tying Can Impose Additional Cost on Aid Recipients: Evidence on Ghana

Abstract: This study investigates the prices of tied foreign aid imports by estimating the price differentials between tied aid imports and non‐aid imports from bilateral sources to Ghana. The study finds a significant mark‐up on the prices of tied aid imports relative to non‐aid imports, which translates into substantial cost to Ghana. Several reasons, both in Ghana and in the donor countries, could be found for the estimated price differentials. Ghana needs to take steps to improve its investment climate, as a way of reducing investment risk, which in turn will enhance the confidence of export financiers to reduce the incentive to mark up prices of tied commodities. On the part of donor countries, there may be need to examine the market for the supply of aided commodities towards the liberalization of such markets. It is suggested that although the higher costs on tied imports may be a necessary price Ghana had to pay to obtain aid, the associated cost provides a case for the cancellation of the bilateral aid debt to Ghana.     

An Investigation of the Effects of Prices and Exchange Rates on Trade Flows in East Asia

This paper investigates the dynamic response of imports and exports to changes in domestic prices, foreign prices and real effective exchange rates for Korea, the Philippines, Singapore and Thailand. A vector autoregressive model and cointegration analysis are used to study the long-run relationships and the short-run dynamics of these variables. The vector error-correction model indicates that in almost all cases, domestic and foreign prices have a larger impact on the trade flows than the real effective exchange rates. We cannot find any significant difference in the response time of import demand to shocks in prices and exchange rates; however, the response time for export supply varies among countries.     

United States Demand for Indonesian Plywood 1

Indonesia's exports of plywood are the largest in the world and a leading source of foreign exchange earnings. Although the industry's growth has been rapid, several studies indicate that it has been subsidised both directly and indirectly. What are the prospects for Indonesia to offset these subsidies by raising plywood prices as its share of key import markets grows? This paper sheds light on this question by analyzing econometrically the United States' imports of Indonesian plywood from July 1979 to December 1986, using a monthly import demand model. The results suggest that Indonesia's rapid expansion into the US plywood market has been due primarily to its low plywood prices, and that attempts to raise prices relative to those of competing export regions would result in significant reductions in market share.     

煤炭价格下降对我国宏观经济的影响

煤炭在我国能源结构中居于主体地位,由于产能过剩和进口煤大量冲击,煤炭价格下降幅度较大。而煤炭价格已经接近完全市场化,电力价格仍然受政府管制,中央财经领导小组已经定调推动能源体制革命,电价市场化将是我国全面深化改革的重要内容,因此研究电价市场化和受政府管控下煤炭价格下降对宏观经济的影响具有重要的意义。论文利用CGE模型研究了两种情境下我国煤炭价格波动对我国宏观经济的影响,对不同的煤炭价格冲击进行情景模拟并进行了分析,结论表明两种情境下煤炭价格波动对宏观经济变量和21个产业影响是不同的,并据此提供一些政策建议。     

Trade Policy Versus Competition Policy: Substitutes or Complements?

This paper deals with the difference between trade policy and competition policy for domestic prices, wages, and employment when product and labour markets are imperfectly competitive. We show that in the presence of country-specific institutions like trade unions, trade policy and competition policy are no longer substitutes in disciplining product and labour market distortions. While both domestic entry and foreign imports affect domestic price-cost margins, they differ in their effectiveness and their impact on the domestic labour market. The results in this paper suggest that enforcement of competition policy without a sufficient degree of openness to imports is typically not a first-best outcome. While domestic entry increases union welfare, foreign imports reduce it. Competition policy in the presence of labour unions is insufficient to reduce labour market distortions, while international competition reduces both labour and product distortions.     

Freedom and management in primary commodity markets: US imports from developing countries

New US data are employed to ascertain the share which intra-firm transactions make up of US primary commodity imports. This share is frequently very high and, for many commodities, well above the average for total US imports. An attempt to explain divergences between intra-firm prices and average prices by differential tax rates and foreign exchange controls yielded only weak results in the cases of bananas, iron ore, rubber and tea but strong ones in that of coffee. Analysis of transfer pricing behaviour is clearly very important in many commodity markets but requires more data than could here be brought to bear.     

我国煤炭价格影响因素实证研究

我国煤炭价格的影响因素一直存在认识上的模糊性和不确定性。文章基于近年来煤炭价格影响因素的现实性数据进行实证性的研究,揭示了下游产品需求量、国际煤炭市场价格、煤炭年产量、铁路运力、煤炭储存量等五个因素是目前影响我国煤炭价格的主要原因。     

燃料乙醇产业的经济学分析

中国经济发展凸显能源问题,作为一种新型可替代能源,燃料乙醇产业的发展令人瞩目,国内燃料乙醇产能扩大已经成为无法阻挡的趋势。中国燃料乙醇的生产技术、原料、供应、产业开发、政府扶持政策等方面都有了初步起色,具有乐观的经济前景。     

Trade in information technologies and changes in the demand for occupations

I use data from the World Input-Output Database and show that trade in information technologies (IT) has a significant contribution to the growth in foreign intermediate goods in the 2001–2014 period. China has strongly contributed to the rise in trade in IT and has become one of the major foreign suppliers of IT. I merge these data with the EU KLEMS database and EU Labour Force Survey and obtain a dataset of 12 European countries and 2001–2007 period. I show that IT imports from China are associated with lower IT prices in European countries. The fall in IT prices has increased the demand for high wage occupations and reduced the demand for medium wage occupations. Nearly 25% of the variation in the demand for occupations can be attributed to the trade with China.     

福建省经济发展和进出口贸易的研究

回顾了国内外学者对经济增长与对外贸易的关系所进行的研究,利用福建省1981-2007年国内生产总值、出口总额、进口总额的数据进行协整分析和Granger因果检验。实证分析的结果表明：①福建省国内生产总值、出口总额、进口总额之间存在长期稳定的关系。②福建省的经济增长、出口增长、进口增长之间不存在Granger因果关系。