Methodological individualism: True and false

I apply Hayek’s distinction between ‘true’ and ‘false’ individualism to methodological individualism. Hayek traced ‘false’ individualism to Cartesian rationalism; Hayek’s rejection of Mises’ praxeology was due to its rationalist underpinnings. The first half of this paper identifies praxeology’s foundational philosophical concepts, emphasising their Cartesian nature, and illustrates how together they constitute a case for methodological individualism: intuition and deduction; reductionism; judgement; dualism. In the second half of this paper, I draw upon philosophy and cognitive science to articulate ‘Hayekian’ (N.B. not Hayek’s) alternatives to these Cartesian concepts. The Hayekian alternative allows a ‘gestalt switch’ from the individual- to the system-level perspective. I therefore suggest that methodological individualism is both true and false: true, in that economic phenomena are grounded in the actions of individuals; false, in that certain problems might be reconceived/discovered at the system-level. I finish by suggesting three avenues of research at system-level: optimisation; stigmergy; computational complexity.     

在“郎顾斗法”的背后

在2004年的一桩惊动中国学术界和企业界的公案中,论辩双方各执一词,也有国家主管机关出面澄清相关问题。国资改革作为中国经济体制改革的重点难点,势必要在争论和不断的革新中推进和寻求突破。我们认为,争论是有益的,并且这种争论还将持续下去。本刊编发的这三篇稿件不属于同一声音,但体现的都是一种期待规范的初衷。     

Apportionment Behind the Veil of Uncertainty

Apportionment of representatives is a basic rule of everyday politics. By definition, this basic rule is a constitutional stage problem and should be decided behind the veil of uncertainty. To bring apportionment closer to quotas, we introduce f‐divergence for utilitarianism and Bregman divergence for consistent optimization. Even in our less restricted condition, we find that we must use α‐divergence for optimization and show that the minimization of α‐divergence induces the same divisor methods that correspond to the maximization of the Kolm–Atkinson social welfare function (or the expected utility function), which is bounded by constant relative risk aversion.     

Pareto’s methodological project

A man of realities. A man of facts and calculations. A man who proceeds upon the principle that two and two are four, and nothing over, and who is not to be talked into allowing for anything over. (Charles Dickens, Hard Times, 1854)     

小煤窑暴利的背后

在利益的驱动下。目前有一些乡镇煤矿，特别是私人煤矿，以大量破坏资源、损害生态环境、减少安全生产投入、压低工人工资为代价去谋取暴利。如果把治理污染、保护资源、修复生态的费用计算在内。这些小煤窑对经济增长的贡献很可能是负数。     

关于云南省绿色经济建设的思考

本文认为云南省提出的建设绿色经济强省的设想和规划是云南改革开放和现代化建设迈向新的重要历史时期的重大战略抉择,勇于开拓创新,符合云南实际,是云南在２１世纪初期经济社会发展的基本思路。这个战略抉择具有鲜明的时代特征。它将对云南省乃至中国２１世纪的区域分工格局和经济社会发展产生深远的影响。     

Schumpeterian dynamics : Some methodological notes

The main purpose of this paper is to define ‘Schumpeterian dynamics’ and to indicate how it can serve as a basis and starting point for studies in development economics irrespective of how Schumpeter used his general approach and what kind of hypotheses he launched. Schumpeterian dynamics is characterized by its focus on economic transformation. This implies that the main interest is in causal chains outside the scope of macroeconomic growth analyses, namely in disequilibria and chain effects created inter alia by entrepreneurial activities, market processes and competition as a dynamic force. The micro underpinnings of such analyses therefore differ from those of growth models which deal with aggregates, such as investments and saving, productivity, income distribution, wage shares in value added, and capital/output ratios. Seen through Schumpeterian glasses, the micro units have no well-defined generalizable ‘propensities’, and they are not fully informed calculators reacting in a mechanical way to prices that they cannot influence. Instead, firms continuously seek new information and often search for projects which, if carried out, exert transformation pressure on the markets. Consumers can also actively influence firms and markets and do not only passively react to supply prices. Transformation analyses should not replace macroeconomic growth models, but a change of roles is called for. Such analyses have too long and too often been regarded as empirical complements to growth analyses and therefore as belonging mainly to the domain of economic historians. The stress on ‘complement’ instead of ‘alternative’ implies that some sort of a synthesis should be sought in theoretical as well as in empirical research.     

Institutional individualism and institutional change: the search for a middle way mode of explanation

After noting the lack of enthusiasm of several well-known scholarsconcerning the adoption of both methodological holism and methodologicalindividualism in its several versions, this paper shows thatinstitutional individualism is a different mode of explanationfrom both of these and also that it is not the same thing asthe so-called Popperian programme of situational analysis. Institutionalindividualism is a mode of explanation that yields non-systemicand non-reductionist explanations at the same time as it allowsfor the incorporation into economic theories and models of themany formal and informal institutional aspects surrounding allhuman interactions, whether these interactions take place withinstable structures of legal rules and social norms or whetherthey attempt to change the said rules and norms. Finally, thepaper shows that it is possible for old institutionalists tomake institutional individualist analyses of institutional changeswhile retaining the remaining methodological assumptions ofthe school. The same is true for new institutionalists. Someexamples are offered from both camps.     

企业可持续成长的动因解密

企业各种成长理论从不同视角对企业持续成长的机制进行了解释,但企业持续成长的动因至今存在争论,没有统一的结论,其成长机理也并不清楚,长期来企业持续成长的机制问题成为一个黑葙.本文试图从企业动态能力的研究视角阐述导致企业可持续成长的动因和机理,揭秘企业可持续成长的黑箱,从企业动态能力的角度提供一个企业可持续成长机制的整合分析框架,并为测度企业可持续成长性奠定相关理论基础.     

The methodological worth of the Delphi forecasting technique

Focusing on the general issues of reliability and validity, several specific problems evident in reported applications of the Delphi method to forecasting are discussed. Reliability threats, which are noted in a number of procedural aspects of the method, arise from ill-considered procedural variations and lack of standardization. While validity threats are also found in several procedural aspects of the tool, they arise principally from pressures for convergence of predictions. This feature of the method, along with certain structural characteristics, is found to undermine critically its forecasting ability. Having discussed in some detail the nature of these difficulties, the paper closes with consideration of the reasons for the continued use of Delphi in spite of its shortcomings and with comments on alternative approaches.     

Forecasting nonstationary time series—Some methodological aspects

The Box-Jenkins approach to time series analysis, which is an efficient way of analyzing stationary time series, recommends differencing as a general method for transforming a nonstationary time series into a stationary one. This paper gives a methodological discussion of some other ways of transforming a nonstationary series, in particular removing linear trends. It is argued that in many cases removing trends is superior to differencing in several respects. For example, when the process generating the time series is an ARMA(p,q) process added to a linear trend, differencing will produce an ARMA(p,q + 1) process that violates the invertibility conditions and is therefore difficult to estimate. The discussion is extended to time series with seasonal patterns.     

我国可再生能源发展的经济学分析——基于租金理论视角

在常规能源资源逐步耗竭,生态环境日益恶化的背景下,可再生能源逐步替代常规能源成为大势所趋.但是目前我国可再生能源不仅没有与经济同步发展,甚至出现了常规能源对可再生能源的反替代.试图通过租金理论,分析我国可再生能源发展滞后的经济学原因,从而为我国加快发展可再生能源提出一些有针对性的政策建议.     

Estimation in sequential decisionmaking models: A methodological note

The purpose of this note is to develop an appropriate model of behavior and a statistical technique for estimating it for individuals who make sequential decisions under uncertainty. The distinctive aspect of this model is that differences among individuals are reflected in their behavior rather than being swept into the error term.