Life cycle management: Integrated approach towards corporate environmental issues

An integrated approach towards environmental management, the concept of life cycle management, is presented. Life cycle management consists of three parts: (i) integrating environmental issues into the decision-making process of the company; (ii) optimizing the environmental impact caused by the product system during its life cycle; and (iii) creating a new organizational culture to support the decision-making process. The concept was developed during the compilation of an environmental management handbook for Finnish industry. The model combines a market-oriented environmental management approach, a circular value chains approach and an organizational culture approach.     

The Effectiveness of Portfolio Risk Diversification: An Additive Approach by Project Replication

This article proposes a probabilistic approach to project operational risk and project portfolio risk diversification. The analysis rests on a fundamental distinction between a fractional and an additive approach for constructing portfolios. Since the additive approach excludes variance as a measure of risk, the project's operational risk is defined by its probability of loss. Paradoxically, the effectiveness of any firm's portfolio risk diversification process will be negatively related to the operational risk of its representative project. We also present the conditions under which risk management and efficiency management can contribute to the firm's strategic imperative of lowering its operational risk.     

Diversified behavioral portfolio as an alternative to Modern Portfolio Theory

The traditional mean–variance approach has been complemented by alternative theories that use risk measures different from standard deviation of returns or involve additional distributional features of returns like skewness and kurtosis. We propose a portfolio choice model that combines different distributional characteristics of the returns in the decision-making making process, considering preferences of investors which are modeled as non-statistical uncertainties of investors using fuzzy theory. We use 20 stocks of the S&P500 from January 2013 to December 2017. We assess the obtained portfolios’ performance, and the diversified behavioral portfolios outperform than the mean–variance portfolio. This methodological proposal can be seen as a strong managerial tool to make investment portfolio decisions.     

Buyer perceptions of supply disruption risk: A behavioral view and empirical assessment

As supply chains become more complex, firms face increasing risks of supply disruptions. The process through which buyers make decisions in the face of these risks, however, has not been explored. Despite research highlighting the importance of behavioral approaches to risk, there is limited research that applies these views of risk in the supply chain literature. This paper addresses this gap by drawing on behavioral risk theory to investigate the causal relationships amongst situation, representations of risk, and decision-making within the purchasing domain. We operationalize and explore the relationship between three representations of supply disruption risk: magnitude of supply disruption, probability of supply disruption, and overall supply disruption risk. Additionally, we draw on exchange theories to identify product and market factors that impact buyers’ perceptions of the probability and magnitude of supply disruption. Finally, we look at how representations of risk affect the decision to seek alternative sources of supply. We test our model using data collected from 223 purchasing managers and buyers of direct materials. Our results show that both the probability and the magnitude of supply disruption are important to buyers’ overall perceptions of supply disruption risk. We also find that product and market situational factors impact perceptions of risk, but they are best understood through their impact on perceptions of probability and magnitude. Finally, we find that decisions are based on assessments of overall risk. These findings provide insight into the decision-making process and show that all three representations of risk are necessary for fully understanding risky decision-making with respect to supply disruptions.     

Rational and intuitive decision-making in sourcing teams: Effects on decision outcomes

According to dual process theory, individual decision-making can be based on rational procedures and experience-based intuition, and the decision-making approach can influence decision outcomes. We investigate how the application of rational procedures and experience-based intuition affects the outcomes of supplier selection decisions taken by cross-functional sourcing teams. Specifically, we examine whether the selected supplier׳s cost and quality/delivery/innovativeness performance is higher when more team members use a highly rational and/or a highly experience-based decision-making approach. From data on 54 teams, we find that the use of rational procedures enhances cost performance. Conversely, when sourcing team members use their experience-based intuition, the decision is more likely to result in satisfactory supplier performance along all tested performance dimensions.     

基于实物期权的风险投资项目评价分析

风险投资项目与其他项目相比不确定性更大,在传统投资决策方法下,风险投资项目的不确定性使项目的投资价值更低,而实物期权方法作为一种新的投资决策方法为风险项目投资中不确定性问题提供了一种解决的思路。尝试把实物期权理论引入到风险投资项目评估中,并把传统方法与实物期权方法结合起来,旨在完善风险投资项目的评价方法。最后得出结论,实物期权方法为投资者继续投资提供了科学的依据,其在风险项目投资决策中的应用具有重要意义。     

税收非对称性与银行风险监管关系研究

通过将银行收入税的非对称性引入模型,分析银行在存在风险的情况下如何确定最优贷款期限以及收入税将如何影响银行决策者的决策过程,然后采用一个动态博弈的框架来讨论最优的银行监管政策。结果表明,非对称性的收入税对银行的贷款风险大小产生影响,它使得银行开始关心并减少风险,为银行业的监管和减少不良贷款提供了一个思路。     

When is escalation of commitment unstoppable in group settings? An iterative economic modeling approach to unveil the dark side of group decision-making

Escalation of commitment (EOC) has been usually studied from a psychological lens, and only recently have scholars approached EOC from an economic perspective. We contribute to this by focusing on iterative decision-making in group settings with a game theory approach. We study how the group members' strategic interaction may result in continuing failing courses of action. Drawing on the Byzantine generals' problem, our model considers an iterative decision-making process where committee participants vote based on private information to escalate or not. Our article demonstrates that if decision-makers reset their beliefs based on the committee's previous decision, then EOC becomes perpetual.     

Risky business: The role of risk in voluntary turnover decisions

One aspect of turnover decision-making that turnover models have not adequately considered is the risk associated with quitting one's job and the potential that research on risky decision-making has for advancing understanding of turnover. We define risk and present turnover as a risky decision; review previous applications of risk in turnover theory; review literature on decision-making under risk as it applies to turnover; integrate these literatures and provide propositions. Our analysis suggests that individual differences, frames of reference, the decision context, and social influences affect perceptions of the risk associated with quitting as well as the willingness to take risks in this particular situation. The implications of turnover risk perceptions and turnover risk propensity for turnover theory and research are discussed.     

Big data from dynamic pricing: A smart approach to tourism demand forecasting

Suppliers of tourist services continuously generate big data on ask prices. We suggest using this information, in the form of a price index, to forecast the occupation rates for virtually any time-space frame, provided that there are a sufficient number of decision makers “sharing” their pricing strategies on the web. Our approach guarantees great transparency and replicability, as big data from OTAs do not depend on search interfaces and can facilitate intelligent interactions between the territory and its inhabitants, thus providing a starting point for a smart decision-making process. We show that it is possible to obtain a noticeable increase in the forecasting performance by including the proposed leading indicator (price index) into the set of explanatory variables, even with very simple model specifications. Our findings offer a new research direction in the field of tourism demand forecasting leveraging on big data from the supply side.     

A nonlinear simultaneous probit-model for the investigation of decision-making processes: modelling the process of setting up a family in partnerships

This article proposes an approach for modelling the interactive influences of two (or more) actors in decision-making processes. We use a nonlinear simultaneous probit-model and show how the problem of identification for estimating the relative effects of the actors can be solved. The formal model will be applied to examine the decision-making process for setting up a family in partnerships. We model a trivariate distribution consisting of the wifes’ desire to have a child or disposition toward the generative decision, the husbands’ disposition and the joint generative decision. We show how the parameter can be used to assess the relative importance of both partners’ dispositions for the decision, the reciprocal influence of both partners’ dispositions within the interaction process, and the relevance of both partners’ biographical contexts in relation to their own disposition as well as to that of the partner. The analysis is based on a three-stage estimation strategy which is implemented in MECOSA 3 and we use data from the Bamberger married couple panel.     

A fuzzy group decision-making approach in quality function deployment

Quality function deployment (QFD) is comprised of two major group decision-making processes. One is to collect the customer requirements from a group of customers, whereas the other is to determine the relationship between customer requirements and technical measures by a cross-functional team. Generally, different and/or even subjective opinions are quite often in a group decision-making process due to the limitations of experience and impreciseness. Obviously, the importance of each customer requirement and the relationship between customer requirements and technical measures are determined by a group of people with imprecision and vagueness. Under such circumstances, a fuzzy group decision-making approach can be applied in QFD to deal with a group decision-making process when the information is imprecise and fuzzy. Moreover, an example is provided as well as the computational steps to show this fuzzy group decision-making approach can be effectively used in QFD to make decisions with imprecision and vagueness.     

顾客声音数据处理一致化映射关系研究

在顾客声音数据一致化处理过程中,原始客户需求信息容易丢失是企业营销决策难题。文中尝试用图形化形式描述顾客声音数据一致化转化过程,给出了一种面向群决策的三类不同顾客声音(效用值型的顾客声音、次序值型的顾客声音、语言短语型的顾客声音)的一致化映射方法。该方法是一种考虑企业知识背景等相关要素的非强制性数据转换方法,能最大限度地保证数据在转换的过程中不丢失,对支持企业营销决策具有重要理论意义及实用价值。     

公共政策过程中公众微博参与过程研究

公众利用微博参与公共政策的议题讨论是公共政策过程中的新现象和管理的新问题。研究以政治系统理论为基础,以劳动教养制度的废除为例,从输入、转化、输出三个阶段来探索公共政策过程中公众微博参与的具体过程,并构建了公共政策过程中公众微博参与的过程模型。模型结论对公共权力部门激励和引导公众微博参与公共政策过程,实现科学民主决策,提供了理论基础和实用指导。     

建筑设备更新最佳时点的动态决策研究

基于原有技术更新模型的基础,通过考虑资金的时间价值,引入净收益因素,提出并运用双倍余额工作量递减法进行折旧,给出了建筑设备更新的新模型,进而构建了一种基于多种因素影响的设备更新动态决策的新方法,通过实例验证对建筑设备更新决策是一种科学合理的方法。     

The effects of environmental risk information on auditors' decisions about prospective financial statements

This study tests a model of how auditors make decisions when presented with environmental risk information in the context of a task that requires their professional opinion on a company's forecasted information. Auditing provided a small-world context where declarative and procedural knowledge have been well documented in terms of the rules for analysing financial information. This research uses a conceptual modelling approach to determine auditors' perceptions of environmental risk information and the effects on their judgement and decision choices when issuing an examination report supporting forecasted financial statements. Auditors were provided with environmental risk information that they had to process and integrate in their decision-making. The results demonstrated that auditors act on unfamiliar declarative knowledge using their standard procedural knowledge. The results from eighty-four senior auditors displayed evidence that auditors' perception of environmental risk information is downplayed compare to the traditional accounting information during their judgement and decision choice phases. When confronted with conflicting information, auditors tend to place more reliance on financial rather than environmental risk information. One of the implications of this study is that auditors should be trained to handle non-traditional information, such as environmental risk.     

Choosing between single and multiple sourcing based on supplier default risk: A real options approach

The selection of a given purchasing strategy is a central activity in risky environments. Single sourcing, a powerful approach in a stable environment, can amplify a firm's exposure to risk (e.g., supplier's default) in the presence of uncertainty. Multiple sourcing, however, presents higher costs due to the management of more than one supplier. A correct evaluation from a risk management perspective is needed. This paper proposes the Real Options approach for valuing the probabilistic benefits of multiple sourcing in managing the supplier default risk (to be compared with the related higher costs). A computational model, based on the Monte Carlo simulation, was developed. The results show the (probabilistic) advantages of adopting the multiple sourcing strategy in risky environments for a specific case. The proposed sensitivity analysis is aimed at identifying the impact of the most important transactional parameters on the differential benefits of the two sourcing strategies. Thus, the model and its managerial implications represent a valid support for the decision-making process in the presence of uncertainty.     

Towards right-shoring: a framework for off-and re-shoring decision making

Location decisions are crucial for manufacturing plants. While current research mainly stresses the cost considerations of location decisions, this research focusses on a more comprehensive decision-making process. Based on analyzing the motivations for off-and re-shoring, we present a decision-making framework which will help companies to ‘right-shore’. Through a multiple case study approach in the aeronautics industry, an industry known for its technical complexity and innovative nature, we will validate and broaden our initial decision-making framework based on literature. While analyzing this framework, it became apparent that the main motivation for offshoring in the aeronautic industry is far from being restricted to cost-cutting considerations. More specific, companies in this industry are willing to develop sustainable commercial partnerships in emerging countries to benefit from new capacities and resources. In the same vein, re-shoring decisions are grounded on long-term perspectives and are carefully balanced. While providing a comprehensive framework for offshoring and re-shoring decisions, our framework enables companies to make better informed decisions for choosing the right location for their plants.     

An empirical model of transfers within a federation, with an application to the European Union

We construct a stylized model of transfers within a federation and apply it to the European Union. Our approach differs from that of most of the existing literature in that we fix the preferences for redistribution of resources among a federation's members, rather than fix the current budgetary rules or modify them on the basis of assumed scenarios. The model is tested (successfully) by assessing its ability to predict the effects of the last (1995) enlargement on the European budget. We then use the estimated model to predict the reallocation of the Union's net transfers after the upcoming Eastern enlargement. Our estimates of transfers to the incoming member states exceed those of the rest of the literature. Our results can be interpreted in one of two ways: first, either the European Union, in its collective decision-making process (that in the future will include the five incoming countries as voting members), will institute new rules and programs to further reduce the regional disparities in income, or second, if the current rules and programs are maintained, then the Eastern enlargement would result in a reduction in the “depth” of the Union. The approach we introduce can be more generally applied to the analysis of other intergovernmental or international organizations.