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Marvin Adelson 《Technological Forecasting and Social Change》1981,20(3):257-267
Anticipating decision makers' attitudes (and behavior) in new decision situations (DS) is an essential prerequisite for realistic forecasting, but surprisingly enough there are still few methodological tools available for this purpose. Our aim is to describe a presumably new approach by using extensions of the so-called Hurwicz optimism-pessimism index criterion [9] for dynamic decision-making processes. Such a combination of searching, learning and subjective evaluative, and judgmental aspects of decision-making seems to offer a realistic framework for anticipating the intuitive attitudes of decision makers when faced with complex tasks in an unstable environment. 相似文献
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