我国移动通信产业的竞争均衡分析

我国电信业在发展过程中,其市场结构产生了很大的变化,其基本的变迁路径为:垄断(1994年以前)一双寡头前提下的主垄断结构(1994-1998年)-寡头垄断(1999年至今).我国的移动电话业务主要有中国移动和中国联通.这方便我们建立双寡头模型来寻求市场的竞争均衡,但是移动通信产业不同于传统产业的一个显著特征是它的"网络效应",也就是网络外部性.网络效应在本质上是一种需求方规模经济,与传统的供给方规模经济有着很大的不同.传统的经济学理论难以对此做出合理的解释.因此必须从网络外部性视角采寻求我国移动电话行业的竞争均衡.本文扩展leffrey Rohlfs(1974年)考虑了网络外部性情况下来建立双寡头市场模型以期得到市场竞争均衡的解.     

网络外部性、商业模式与PC市场结构

本文基于PC市场规模经济和网络外部性的特点 ,构建了扩展的豪泰林模型 ,研究了PC市场结构的决定因素和形成机理及厂商的不同商业模式 :在规模经济明显和网络外部性强的PC互补品市场上往往呈现出双寡头竞争格局 ,先进入PC市场的厂商较传统产业享有更大的成本优势和网络外部性优势 ,后来厂商不得不强化传统的价格和产品差异化等竞争手段 ,采取不同的商业模式参与竞争 ;在规模经济不明显和网络外部性弱的PC互补品市场往往呈现出多家企业进行垄断竞争的格局 ,双寡头市场上的厂商则根据不同的比较优势与垄断竞争市场的相关厂商进行合作或竞争。     

具有网络外部性的创新产品赠样策略分析研究

具有网络外部性的创新产品要取得市场扩散的成功需要尽快建立具有吸引力的用户基础。本文讨论了具有网络外部性的创新产品的免费赠样策略问题,通过有关机理模型的建立,证明了免费赠样对创新产品扩散的确具有促进作用,同时针对免费赠样对象的确定和免费赠样数量确定问题进行了相应的讨论。     

网络外部性环境下的动态经济过程分析

本文主要分析了在网络外部性存在的条件下消费者的预期、协调和博弈过程以及厂商的标准、兼容等战略行为对扩散路径和市场的影响。     

互联网行业垄断会阻碍创新吗?——兼论熊彼特假说争论的新解释视角

垄断与创新的关系一直是产业组织领域重点关注的问题,而大型互联网企业的出现使两者的关系更加复杂。本文在总结互联网行业垄断与创新特征的基础上,借助定性比较分析方法,探讨了行业中企业规模、市场结构与创新之间复杂的因果关系。研究发现,在网络外部性、长尾效应等特征的作用下,互联网行业呈现出技术创新与商业模式创新并存、用户价值对创新影响显著、渐进式创新与激进式创新分野加剧等特征。在新的创新模式与机制下,互联网行业形成多条由不同规模企业主导的创新成功路径,这些不互斥的路径说明了互联网行业中的垄断对创新的阻碍作用有限,在理论上为熊彼特假说的相关争论提供了新的解释视角,在实践中,为数字经济中的反垄断执法提供了理论依据。     

展览产品定价模型及价格影响因素研究——基于双边市场理论视角

本文借鉴近年来兴起的双边市场理论对展览产品的定价模型及影响因素进行了理论研究。本文指出,展览市场是典型的双边市场,具有明显的网络外部性。本文通过建立垄断和竞争两种模型研究了展览产品的定价,并指出参展商和观众的需求价格弹性、一方消费者给另一方消费者带来的网络外部性、展览市场的竞争以及产品差异化都是影响展览产品定价的主要因素。     

大企业技术锁定效应与经济收敛研究

大企业利用资金、技术、组织与市场优势扩大规模与经营范围产生规模效应,利用大量产品与企业网络实现技术传播与扩散推动整个国家经济发展。文章以2002-2013年中国500强企业为样本,采用动态面板数据和系统广义矩方法研究大企业规模对地区经济增长的影响。研究结果表明,中国500强企业规模与地区经济增长具有显著的负效应,当选择较为发达的经济省份进行回归时发现这种负效应作用更加明显。分析认为大企业通过技术创新和溢出实现地区经济收敛,同时由于组织惯性与技术垄断导致技术锁定而产生"大企业陷阱",对地区经济增长产生负效应。     

网络效应市场的技术创新障碍及策略分析

在网络效应市场,技术创新对企业竞争力有着重要的影响。然而由于网络效应的作用,需求曲线发生改变,使市场均衡表现出"赢者通吃"的特征。这意味着,如果一项新技术的用户规模达不到临界容量,正反馈效应的存在将会使该技术被市场所抛弃。静态博弈和动态博弈的分析结果都表明,用户为了避免网络规模减小带来的效用损失,对新技术的采用往往采取观望态度,这将导致新技术难以达到最小网络规模要求的临界容量,也就无法取代旧技术的统治地位。为了加快新技术的扩散速度并成功战胜旧技术,企业在进行技术创新时应采取有效的技术创新策略:一是要采取合适的技术兼容策略;二是要鼓励和授权其他厂商使用自己的技术标准;三是要吸引辅助配套厂商共同进行技术研发。     

自然垄断行业规制的理论与改革

一、自然垄断行业规制的理论基础自然垄断是经济学中的一个传统概念。传统自然垄断理论将规模经济性作为判断自然垄断的根据。一般认为“所谓自然垄断,是指只要一家公司生产的全部产品的平均价格小于两家或两家以上的公司提供等量产品的平均之和,该行业便具有自然垄断性”。当一个产业的规模经济或广度经济相当强,以至只有一个厂商能够生存下来时,就会产生自然垄断。规模经济或广度经济所带来的成本劣加性使自然垄断获得了存在的理由。由于维持垄断可在技术经济上达到更高效率的结构因素,所以要通过参加规制来形成和维持垄断,通过价格规制和…     

货币的网络外部性及转换成本

1.货币的网络外部性。当一种产品对用户的价值随着采用相同产品或可兼容产品的用户增加而增大时,就出现了网络外部性。也就是说,由于用户数量的增加,在网络外部性的作用下,原有的用户免费得到了产品中所蕴涵的新增价值而无须为这一部分价值提供相应的补偿。网络的价值会随着网络用户数量的增加而增大,规模大的网络价值相对较大。同时,网络用户所能得到的价值分为两个不同的部分:一个部分叫做"自有价值",是在没有别的使用者的情况下,产品本身所具有的那部分价值,有时这部分"自有价值"为零;另一部分叫做"协同价值",就是当新的用户加入网络时,老用户从中获得的额外价值。     

A consumer-based model of competitive diffusion: the multiplicative effects of global and local network externalities

Competitive diffusion of two incompatible technologies, such as PC vs. Macintosh, VHS vs. Betamax and so on, is studied under the framework of a spatial game in which consumers are distributed on a two-dimensional square lattice network. The consumers play coordination-like games with their nearest neighbors and imitate the most successful strategy in their neighborhood in terms of aggregated payoffs after each round. The effects of global network externality are realized in the dynamic payoff matrix of the game, and the framework of spatial game provides the model with the effects of local network externality. These two types of externalities are set as multiplicative, that is, as nonlinear. Both simulations and mean-field approximation show that not only total but also partial standardization (robust polymorphic equilibrium) occurs depending upon the parameters and initial configurations, even when there are positive effects of both global and local network externalities. Moreover, effects of innovation factors that alter paths toward a lock-in situation are studied. It is shown that both the timing and the size of the innovation factors matter for a disadvantaged technology in order to overwhelm a market.JEL Classification: C7, D8, O3We are obliged to Professor John Paul Boyd at the University of California, Irvine and our anonymous referees for their constructive comments.     

The Installed Base Effect: Some Empirical Evidence From The Microcomputer Market

The penetration rate US network technologies is not only determined by the indigenous qualities of these technologies, but also by the adoption behaviour of other actors using the same network technology. This paper provides empirical evidence for the importance of network externalities and suggests that the econonmic consequences of network externalities - as they affect the diffusion speed of network technologies at an aggregate level - may be considerable.When the market offers incompatible network technologies, the relative share of previous adopters of the technologies plays a critical role in determining the diffusion speed of network technologies. This paper provides empirical evidence from the European microcomputer market between 1985 and 1994 which supports this hypothesis. Our analysis suggests that the diffusion speed of microcomputers at an aggregate level has varied with the relative order of magnitude of the network size of the two incompatible operating systems: a higher variation between the number of users of different microcomputers sold is positively relaled to a higher diffusion speed of microcomputers in general.     

Evolution of market shares with repeated purchases and heterogeneous network externalities

We investigate how market shares change when a new, superior technology exhibiting network externalities is introduced in a market initially dominated by an old technology. This is done under the assumption that consumers are heterogeneous in their valuation of technology quality and network externalities and that goods are not (perfectly) durable and thus have to be bought repeatedly. When both technologies are unsponsored, the old technology dominates when the quality difference is small, and it disappears when the quality difference is large. When the new technology is sponsored, the relationship between the quality difference and the long-run market share of the new technology is non-monotonic and the old technology always continues to exist.

When should firms choose a risky new technology? An oligopolistic analysis

How to choose technology type in a competitive environment is an important and challenging problem, which has received little attention from scholars. To fill this gap, this paper builds a game-theoretic model to examine whether a firm should choose to adopt a risky new technology or to adopt a safe new technology to reduce its marginal cost. I find that the result that each firm should always choose the risky technology in a duopoly may be invalid when more firms enter the market. In this scenario, some firms should adopt the safe technology for relatively high product substitutability because the advantage of employing the risky technology is threatened by the business stealing externality, finally forming heterogeneous equilibria in which both types of technologies are present. Furthermore, I show that the heterogeneous technology choice equilibria are more likely to arise when increasing number of firms enter the market, and that in these equilibria more firms always choose the risky technology than the safe technology. This study conveys relevant economic insights for competitive firms confronted with a dilemma between taking risks in pursuit of greater technology rewards and taking no risks for conservative technology returns.     

Multigeneration diffusion model for economic assessment of new technology

In the era of 21st century, development of emerging information technology is the essence of the advancement. This kind of new technology, however, often requires a great deal of amount of initial investment for both procedures of R&D and commercialization. As cost invested in developing the specified technology is increasing, investors are paying more attention to cost to benefit analysis (CBA). One of the basic elements of CBA for new technological development is the diffusion pattern of demand of such technology. Typically, it would be hard to presume the diffusion pattern of demand when the new product or the technology is under development. In this case, a simulation study is necessary. Many studies of technology evaluation have adopted a single generation model to simulate the diffusion pattern of demand. This approach, however, considers the diffusion of the new technology itself, not taking into account newer generation, which can replace the one just invented. In the real market situation, one must consider the competition and substitution phenomena between old and new technologies. In this paper, we show how multigeneration technology diffusion model can be applied for more accurate CBA for information technology. Additionally, Monte Carlo simulation is performed to find influential factors on the CBA of a cybernetic building system (CBS).     

Optimal product strategies in the presence of network externalities

A network externality exists when a user’s benefit from a product increases with the number of other users in the same network. We examine the possibility that a software firm may exploit network externalities by introducing a limited feature version of its commercially available software into the market. The two versions need not be perfectly compatible and network externalities are allowed to decline as the difference between the versions increases. We obtain conditions under which introducing a limited feature version is optimal.     

A study on the relationship between technology diffusion and new product diffusion

This study investigates the relationship between “technology diffusion” and “new product diffusion”. We define “technology diffusion” as a knowledge spillover process, which is represented by patent citation, and “new product diffusion” as the spread of a new product that has been developed by the application of patented technology. To investigate the relationship between the two types of diffusion, we use patent citation data of code division multiple access (CDMA) technology and market sales data of mobile phones in South Korea for the analysis. The results show that the diffusion of technology through patent citation could be successfully explained by empirical analysis, for which the Bass diffusion model was used. Moreover, we can find out if technology diffusion can be the leading indicator of a new product's diffusion before its launching; in other words, before the commercialization of the patent.