Official bailouts,moral hazard and the ‘speciality’ of the international interbank market

We analyse the evolution of emerging market loan spreads at a more disaggregated level than other studies on the subject, providing statistical support to the assumption of the ‘speciality’ of the international interbank market, to the extent that the pricing of interbank credit is insensitive to the nature (public or private) of the borrower. In sharp contrast, the public or private nature of other borrowers, such as corporates or financial firms, causes significant differences in spreads. These results could be interpreted as evidence of the possible role played by implicit government guarantees in the international interbank market, which lower the incentives for participants to monitor counterpart risk very closely. Furthermore, the specificity of banks is witnessed by the fact that only spreads on loans to emerging market banks have clearly declined following the 1995 Mexican bailout, whereas evidence on the pricing of lending to corporates and financial firms is more ambiguous. Although, on the one hand, this might support the view that financial assistance from the IMF gives rise to moral hazard, on the other hand, contrary to expectations, spreads on loans to Asian banks, among the major candidates in the current policy debate on moral hazard, have been unaffected by the IMF's response to Mexico's crisis.     

信用风险缓释工具对商业银行贷款定价之影响

本文基于我国上市公司的银行贷款数据,就信用风险缓释工具对商业银行贷款定价的影响进行了多视角的研究,发现只有抵押贷款和非抵押贷款的风险溢价间存在显著差异,且信用贷款和保证贷款的风险溢价显著小于抵押贷款。我国商业银行似乎对更高质量的风险缓释工具执行了较高的贷款利率,表明信用风险缓释工具在其贷款风险定价中未能得到应有的体现与反映。我国商业银行对抵押等工具的风险缓释作用的漠视,是与其特定的风险定价与激励机制有关;同时,基于供应链小企业融资中的过程控制等结构化设计等,讨论了如何降低抵押贷款风险溢价的方式和方法。     

Shadow banking in Asia: Foreign versus domestic lending to real estate projects

We compare the types of loans and their rates of returns for domestic versus offshore small and mid-sized private real estate credit funds. The data indicate offshore private credit funds issue smaller and subordinated loans to residential projects. Offshore lenders prefer projects in developed Asian markets, and obtain higher rates of return even after controlling for other things such as loan size, seniority, and borrower location. Our findings suggest the presence of pronounced segmentation across real estate lending markets in Asia as offshore lenders are not a substitute for domestic capital.     

有违约风险贷款担保价值研究

在发达国家政府是贷款担保的主要担保人,对贷款担保定价研究的重要假设是担保人没有违约风险。在中国,绝大多数的贷款担保人有违约风险。本文研究了担保人有违约风险情况下提供担保和相互担保的财务特征和定价,对比分析了提供担保和相互担保行为对贷款担保人和银行价值的影响。研究表明,有违约风险担保的价值随着担保人公司价值和借款额的增大而增大,随着借款公司价值的增大而减少;银行的损失随着借款额的增大而增大,随着担保人公司价值和借款人公司价值的增大而减少。银行提供贷款时允许企业相互担保等于潜在为相互担保企业提供了免费的部分担保,随着借款人风险的增大,相互担保条件下的银行或有损失急剧增大,相互担保对于银行的价值有显著的负面影响。     

The process of female borrower discouragement

Recent entrepreneurial finance literature identifies ‘borrower discouragement’ as an important phenomenon explaining why female entrepreneurs hold less capital to grow their venture. But how do you become a discouraged borrower? We apply grounded theory to interviews with Tanzanian female entrepreneurs and model the process via which these entrepreneurs become discouraged. Our model suggests that entrepreneurs hold negative perceptions regarding loan application, allocation and payback procedures shaped by both internal and external information sources. We demonstrate that negative perceptions cause an unfavorable attitude towards formal loans which together with entrepreneurs' perceptions of societal norms lead to a low intention to apply.     

Impacts of the borrower's attributes,loan contract contents,and collateral characteristics on mortgage loan default

This paper explores the factors influencing mortgage loan default and default probability by using the data from the mortgage loans of a case financial institution. The results indicate that the borrower's gender, the borrower's job position, whether the regional codes of the borrower's present residence and registered permanent residence are the same, the degree of relationship between the borrower and the guarantor, the loan-to-value ratio, the use status of collateral, and the located region of collateral are significantly positively correlated with the default probability. However, the education degree and the loan amount are significantly negatively correlated with the default probability.     

Leverage made at home: Investors' margin loan usage and firm leverage

The “homemade leverage” conjecture by Modigliani and Miller (1958) implies that firm leverage and investors' leverage are substitutes. Using the data of margin loans by Chinese stock investors, we find that investors take significantly fewer margin loans on a stock when the company announces new bank loans. This effect is entirely driven by investors' margin loan repayment upon announcements, and is stronger for firms with higher institutional ownership or lower leverage. The findings suggest that investors undo the change in firm leverage by adjusting margin loans usage, supporting the “homemade leverage” conjecture.     

Effect of climate-related risk on the costs of bank loans: Evidence from syndicated loan markets in emerging economies

Based on a novel dataset that combined syndicated loans originated in the emerging market economies with greenhouse gas emission intensity data of borrowers, this study examines whether and to what extent banks in these emerging markets have factored in climate transition risk in their lending decisions. On loan pricing, our results suggest that banks in these emerging markets have started to price-in climate transition risk for loans to emissions-intensive sector since the Paris Agreement. This could reflect their increased awareness of a climate-transition risk towards such firms. The extent of the transition risk premium is also found to be dependent on the environmental attitude of banks. Specifically, green banks are found to charge a higher loan spread than other banks, when lending to the same brown firm after the Paris Agreement. Apart from pricing a transition risk premium in the loan spread, we find evidence that banks may also consider imposing more stringent non-pricing contractual terms, such as shortening loan tenor and imposing collateral requirement, on brown firms especially when the associated credit risk impacts on these firms are more uncertain.     

Consumer Credit Risk and Pricing

Previous academic studies viewed borrower rejection as a sign of market imperfections in the consumer credit markets, but this view was based upon the assumption that differences in the levels of borrower creditworthiness could not be accurately identified. Today, it is possible to differentiate between types of borrowers, and riskier borrowers can participate in credit markets if they are willing to pay relatively higher borrowing costs. Hence, a more critical issue concerning the performance of these markets should be whether loan prices correctly reflect the level of borrower credit risk. This paper reexamines consumer participation in credit markets looking specifically at issues related to the pricing of borrowers of different credit risk.     

软信息能否缓解P2P网贷市场中的羊群行为？

文章以“人人贷”网络借贷平台2011年8月15日至2014年8月20日交易数据为样本,通过Python编写网络爬虫程序抓取14936个有效借款订单,采用线性回归模型,按投标记录进行等时间段划分,分析借款人提供的借款陈述等软信息能否缓解P2P网贷市场投资者的羊群行为。实证表明,借款陈述的文本长度与羊群行为存在负相关关系,即借款描述等软信息的增加可适度缓解投资者的羊群行为。对此,建议国内网贷平台应借鉴国外P2P网贷平台的运行经验,提供更多的软信息以引导投资者合理决策。     

Credit Scoring and Loan Default

A metric of credit score performance is developed to study the usage and performance of credit scoring in the loan origination process. We examine the performance of origination FICO scores as measures of ex ante borrower creditworthiness using loan‐level data on ex post performance of subprime mortgages. Parametric and nonparametric estimates of credit score performance reveal different trends, especially on originations with low credit scores. The data suggest a trend of increased emphasis on higher credit scores accompanying a trend of increased riskiness in other origination attributes. Over time, this increased emphasis on credit scoring coincided with deterioration in FICO performance largely because of the fact that higher credit score originations of later cohorts were more likely to have riskier attributes. However, controlling for other attributes on originations and changes in economic conditions, we find that, as measures of borrower ranking, FICO performance on subprime loans over the years remains fairly stable.     

Potential Lending Discrimination? Insights from Small Business Financing and New Venture Survival

Previous literature provides potential lending discrimination evidence of disadvantaged women and minority entrepreneurs' high rate of business loan application denial and their unequal access to external and commercial credits in comparison with white business owners. This paper aims to expand the literature and discussions on small business loan discrimination from a new research direction, besides those on loan applications/denials and on loan terms, focusing on the consequences of small business loans in terms of new venture survivability. The proposed new research direction is consistent with similar research approaches in mortgage lending literature examining loan default rates and potential discrimination. The Kauffman Firm Survey data are used with appropriate hazards model for the analysis. Extensive creditworthiness and business survival determinants are applied for controlling for their influences across racial and ethnic groups. The main empirical finding is that after controlling for a wide variety of borrower, establishment, and regional characteristics, business closure rates for minority entrepreneurs are not higher than those for white business owners. This finding does not support the prediction of the model for lender bias against minority entrepreneurs.     

A Credit Score System for Socially Responsible Lending

Ethical banking, microfinance institutions or certain credit cooperatives, among others, grant socially responsible loans. This paper presents a credit score system for them. The model evaluates social and financial aspects of the borrower. The financial aspects are evaluated under the conventional banking framework, by analysing accounting statements and financial projections. The social aspects try to quantify the loan impact on the achievement of Millennium Development Goals such as employment, education, environment, health or community impact. The social credit score model should incorporate the lender’s know-how and should also be coherent with its mission. This is done using Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM). The paper illustrates a real case: a loan application by a social entrepreneur presented to a socially responsible lender. The decision support system not only produces a score, but also reveals strengths and weaknesses of the application.     

An analysis of bank stock price reaction to distressed borrowers: Taiwanese evidence

This paper investigates the impacts of a borrower's reorganisation plan confirmation on its lending bank's shareholder wealth. Earlier empirical research is completely silent on this research area. Using data from a sample of Taiwanese reorganised firms, this paper shows that the market discriminates among lending banks by making inferences based on their exposure to their reorganised borrower; that is, the lead lending banks experience negative wealth effects, whereas the second lending banks experience positive effects. The results also show that wealth effects are negatively related to loan collateral and rates charged on the loans as well as on corporate leverage. In addition, the reliability and robustness of the model are demonstrated by the receiver operating characteristic curves.     

Does Bank Consolidation Hurt the Small Business Borrower?

The recent wave of mergers in the commercial banking sector in the United States has led to tremendous industry consolidation. Some fear that such consolidation will leave the small business borrower with fewer opportunities to obtain bank credit. This study uses regression analysis to empirically determine if consolidation has caused larger banks to abandon relationship loans extended to small businesses over time. If so, this leaves small business borrowers with two distinctly different choices, a low interest rate loan from a large bank for those small business borrowers who qualify or a high interest rate loan from a small bank for those who do not. The results of this study support this theory, and find consolidation has raised small business loan rates at small banks and lowered rates at large banks, ceteris paribus.     

显性激励:最优信贷合约研究

本文运用委托代理理论,对银行信贷合约的最优条件进行了分析.文章将信贷合约抽象为由分配函数、审计域、担保率等要件组成,然后运用委托代理问题研究中的分布函数参数化模型方法,依次对最优分配函数、最佳审计域、最优担保率的特征进行了研究,得出了最优分配函数应当满足"莫里斯·霍姆斯特姆"条件等系列结论.     

P2P网络借贷市场信用风险识别

近年来,P2P网络借贷市场成为我国金融领域的重灾区,各类问题层出不穷,不仅损害了投资者利益,而且严重扰乱了我国的金融秩序,深入研究P2P网络借贷市场存在的问题具有重要现实意义。P2P网络借贷市场是信息不对称最为严重的市场之一,对借款人信用风险进行识别是P2P网络借贷的关键环节。根据信用风险定价理论,借贷利率应该充分反映违约风险,通过检验借贷利率与违约风险之间的关系可以验证借贷市场信用风险识别机制的有效性。基于“人人贷”平台公开的历史交易数据对P2P网络借贷市场的信用风险识别问题进行实证研究,结果表明:借贷利率能部分反映借款人的信用风险,但在相同的利率水平下,其他指标与违约风险也存在显著性关系,表明相同的利率未对应相同的信用风险,平台的信用风险识别机制部分有效。进一步研究表明,在缺乏成熟、易用的个人征信产品的情况下,无论借款人、P2P平台,还是投资者,对信用风险影响因素的判断与实际情况都存在一定的偏差,工作经验丰富的借款人付出了过高的借贷成本,平台在判断收入对信用风险的影响方面出现了偏差,投资者则忽视了借款人学历的价值。建议打破个人征信数据壁垒,丰富个人征信产品,保护居民信用数据安全,以保障借贷市场的持续发展。     

Bargaining power and information in SME lending

Small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) are informationally opaque and bank dependent. In SME lending, banks largely rely on soft information, because the scale and scope of hard information are limited. We analyze whether and how hard and soft information affects the borrower??s bargaining power vis-à-vis its bank. We use the fact that, for a given credit rating, certain borrowers obtain better loan terms than others to define measures of relative bargaining power. Using SME loan data from the USA and Germany, we find that more favorable soft information (management skills and character) increases borrower bargaining power. We also show that more favorable soft than hard information improves borrower bargaining power. The results are not driven by manipulation or statistical limitations of the credit ratings. Our study suggests that soft information represents an important and direct determinant of borrower bargaining power, affecting the outcomes of the loan contracting process.     

Lending Risk in MFIs: The Extreme Bounds of Microeconomic and Macroeconomic Factors

Using 1,234 microfinance firms in 106 countries, this study investigates the determinants of default on the microcredit debt obligation of borrowers. Using the variant of extreme bounds analysis that systematically tests the fragility of coefficient estimates, we examine the importance of 42 variables in explaining default risk. At the micro level, the results from the modeling of model uncertainty reveal that regulation, cost per loan/cost per borrower, loan balance, borrower per loan officer, and the number of loan officers are robust factors. From the macroeconomic context, the time required to start a business and human capital are the determinants of default on debt obligations.     

Do Binary Collateral Outcome Variables Proxy Collateral Levels? The Case of Collateral from Start-ups and Existing SMEs

This paper is designed to test whether the factors which affect the decision to collateralise business loans affect the level of collateralisation in the same manner. If the level of collateralisation does matter, the provision of collateral becomes more than a goodwill gesture to placate banks and more a device to ameliorate the risk of lending. We use a thitherto unseen dataset from a U.K. retail bank comprising 4,618 transfers and start-ups (TS group) who applied for business loans and overdrafts between January 1998 and January 2000. The control sample comprised 9,596 existing businesses from the same period. Our unique dataset permits an analysis of this kind for the first time because it contains a continuous variable for collateral unlike previous studies. Existing businesses exhibit a higher frequency (binary outcome) and level (tobit outcome) of collateral than the businesses who are start-ups or have transferred from another bank only when distortions within the data are not controlled for. These distortions negate the value of binary collateral variables. Factors such as business type and loan purpose are useful at explaining the likelihood of a borrower having his loan collateralised and the level of collateralisation for borrowers who provided collateral or not.