Monetization and financial development in Southeast Asia before the Second World War

Using new statistics, this article analyses financial development in Southeast Asia over the seven decades 1870–1939. The region experienced substantial, and in some instances rapid, vent-for-surplus economic growth based on a narrow range of primary commodities. But in 1939 all Southeast Asian countries still had relatively undeveloped financial infrastructures dominated by metropolitan interests, considerably reliant on informal finance, and geared towards primary commodity exports. The article suggests that a lack of opportunities and a variety of country-specific considerations were more important explanations than weak financial development for an absence of greater industrialization and agricultural modernization in Southeast Asia.     

浅析“东盟方式”

东盟自成立以来,经过不断的发展,成为在东亚地区一体化程度最高的组织。"东盟方式"是对东南亚国家之间合作方式的一个总结,它为东盟的发展和壮大做出了巨大贡献。对它进行研究对于构建一种普适性的地区一体化理论具有重要意义,本文在考察东盟历史发展的基础上,对"东盟方式"的内涵、形成原因、主要特征及其意义做一个系统分析。     

Book Reviews

Book reviewed in this articles:
Technological Change in China Conroy, Richard
Agriculture and Trade in the Pacific: toward the twenty-first century William T. Coyle, Dermot Hayes and Hiroshi Yamauchi (eds)
Australia's Business Challenge: Southeast Asia in the 1990s
Agricultural Research in China: its institutional development and impact , Shenggen Fan and Philip G. Pardey
Labor and Economic Growth in Five Asian Countries: South Korea, Malaysia, Taiwan, Thailand and the Philippines , Walter Galenson
Informal Finance: some findings from Asia Prabhu Ghate et al.
The Agrarian Origins of Commerce and Industry: a study of peasant marketing in Indonesia Yujiro Hayami and Toshihiko Kawagoe
Chinese Enterprise Management: reforms in economic perspective Sukhan Jackson
The Challenge of Reform in Indochina Bøje Ljunggren (ed.)
Resources and Environment in Asia's Marine Sector James Barney Marsh (ed.)
The Population of Modern China Dudley L. Poston Jr and David Yaukey (eds)
Employment generation through private entrepreneurship in Vietnam Per Ronnås
Development Planning in Asia Somsak Tambunlertchai and S. P. Gupta (eds)
Race to the Swift: state and finance in Korean industrialization Jung-en Woo
Indonesia: health planning and budgeting     

The making of a fiscal state in Song China, 960–1279

In light of the Schumpeterian paradigm, this article explores the rise of the tax state in eleventh‐century China and its further transition towards a fiscal state until the Mongol conquest in 1279. By the late eleventh century in the Song dynasty, two‐thirds of state revenues came from taxing non‐agricultural sectors, especially from the collection of excise. The Song state became the first sustainable tax state in global history, as manifested in three major aspects: monetization; indirect taxation; and centralization and professionalization in the tax administration. The boundary of the Song tax state was largely confined to urban settlements. In rural areas, the state gave up the collection of commercial taxes by farming out this right to local elites. In the twelfth century, as traditional tax revenues fell far short of supporting military defence, the Song administration utilized credit instruments. Around 1200, the amount of redeemable promissory notes first exceeded that of annual tax revenues. This shift from tax‐based public finance to credit‐based public finance completed the transition towards a fiscal state. Nonetheless, this development in the fiscal state was still at an early stage and proved to be unstable. Toward the end of the Southern Song, hyperinflation caused by the over‐issuance of promissory notes seriously threatened the economy.     

Economic integration in northeast Asia: Preconditions and possible trajectories

When in November 2001, the leaders of the Southeast Asian and Northeast Asian states met for the “ASEAN (Association of South East Asian Nations) plus three (China, Japan and Korea),” President Kim Dae‐Jung of South Korea proposed the exploration for an East Asian Free Trade Area (EAFTA) and thereby opened a new chapter of East Asian integration. The special Northeast Asian perspective on regional co‐operation became clear by the simultaneous decision to hold annual meetings of finance and trade ministers of China, Japan and Korea. At the same time, bilateral agreements, like a free trade area between Japan and Singapore, the tentative large free trade area between ASEAN and China and the work‐in‐progress on a Korean‐Japanese Free Trade Area, show the devotion and sometimes even obsession of current policy‐making with reaching regional trade agreements. Regional integration, it seems, is finally on the Northeast Asian agenda. In this paper, the preconditions and perspectives of economic integration in Northeast Asia will be explored. Since economic integration is in various ways linked to political factors, the second section discusses the geo‐political situation of Northeast Asia today. The third section deals with the economic perspectives of different forms of trade integration, followed by an analysis of various attempts for greater macro‐economic and financial co‐operation and a short conclusion.     

农村社会资本变迁下的农村合作金融发展研究

农村合作金融制度的效率体现在什么地方？面对农村经济与社会的变化，农村合作金融该如何发展？本文借助社会资本理论，从社会资本角度对这两个问题进行解答，认为农村合作金融制度的效率在于：可以满足农户资金需求的工具性目的、降低农户的金融交易成本、实现国家发展农村经济的目的；在农村社会资本从传统向现代过渡的过程中，农村合作金融的发展途径应是合法化和规范化。     

The geographic extent of global supply chains: evidence from Southeast Asia

We study the extent to which inter‐firm relationships are locally concentrated and what determines firm differences in geographic proximity to domestic or foreign suppliers and customers. From micro‐data on self‐reported customer and supplier data of firms in Indonesia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam, we measure the distances between firm pairs, that is, the distance to the main supplier and the distance to the main customer for the surveyed firms. The distances to suppliers and customers are shorter for indigenous firms in these Southeast Asian countries; but the arm's length differs across countries. The distance between firm pairs differs widely across firms within narrowly defined industries and countries. We find that both firm‐level transaction costs and capabilities affect the distances between customers and suppliers. The distance to suppliers is longer for firms that have accepted guest engineers from the main supplier to maintain production processes. Further, we find that the distances to suppliers and customers are longer for firms that have undertaken organisational change or improved marketing practices.     

Exporting National Champions： China＇s Outward Foreign Direct Investment Finance in Comparative Perspective

We examine the extent to which Chinese development banks have financed the globalization of China＇s ＂national champion ＂firms： specifically, through outward foreign direct investment （OFDI）. We create a database of Chinese fnance for OFDI and compare our results to the existing literature and available data on Japan, Korea and other Asian nations. We estimate the total value of China＇s OFDI finance from 2002 to 2012 at US$14Obn. As a percentage of total OFDI, China＇s lending is roughly three times higher than Japan ＇s, the previous global leader in OFDl finance. We identify two major reasons for China＇s high （31 percent） ratio of OFDl lending to total OFDI. First, China has a greater incentive to give OFDI loans than Japan or Korea ever did because its borrowers are statelowned so it can more easily channel funds to targeted areas. Second, China has a greater capacity to give OFDI loans because it has significantly higher savings and foreign exchange reserves than Japan and Korea.     

Women and empowerment through the ‘economy of affection’ in KwaZulu‐Natal: Its significance for sustainable development

This article is an attempt to demonstrate how, in the absence of infrastructural requirements for development in the rural areas, the interpersonal relationships of women articulated through their households, kinship networks and community structures serve as indispensable mechanisms for their survival. These mechanisms are seen as part of an indigenous socio‐economic framework that is referred to here as the ‘economy of affection’. This framework is presented, through ethnographic data, as a means of facilitating moral, social and economic support among the indigent rural people in KwaZulu‐Natal. Taking cognisance of local organisational forms and resources is the best possible way to reconstruct South Africa's vast hinterland against the background of a history of development patterns, where rhetoric has played a more important role than actual substantive contributions to development of the rural poor, and where capital investments, technology and expertise of a post‐industrial nature are unlikely to spread.     

新农村金融体系重构与金融服务创新问题研究

新农村建设离不开金融的大力支持,但目前农村金融机构萎缩、服务水平低下,与"三农"发展的需求不相适应。本文提出了重塑农村金融体系、创新农村金融服务与产品等政策性建议,以促进新农村建设和发展。     

我国财政支农投资政策的演变与创新

当前中国的主要问题是“三农”问题,“三农”在我国的经济发展过程中具有十分重要的作用。本文研究我国财政支农投资政策的演变过程,并对这一演变过程进行分析,结合我国当前国情,探索我国财政支农投资政策优化的创新思路。     

Public Policy Environment and Entrepreneurial Activities: Evidence from China

What determines the effectiveness of government entrepreneurship policies on the regional development of entrepreneurial activities in China? Using panel data analysis, this study develops a comprehensive framework that examines the effects of various factors, including government efficiency and government support for business, finance and technology, on facilitating the creation of new ventures. Based on provincial data collected between 2009 and 2014, we find that the level of infrastructure development, government incubators and venture capital‐guided funds have positive and significant effects on entrepreneurial activities. The findings of our study suggest that local government efficiency is a fundamental precondition for entrepreneurship policies to effectively boost the regional economy.     

Entrepreneurship and innovation in development finance institutions for promoting the clean development mechanism in Africa

This article demonstrates how entrepreneurship and innovation can help promote the clean development mechanism in Africa through development finance institutions. If DFIs do not have sufficient knowledge of how to enhance entrepreneurship and innovation they will have only a limited impact in promoting innovative financial instruments for achieving environmental benefits. Supporting innovation and entrepreneurship will enable DFIs to create opportunities for adaptive learning and creativity, to adjust to emerging CDM innovative financial instruments and to play a key role in promoting CDM in Africa. It will make DFIs more knowledge based and enhance their ability to provide monetary incentives through their project financing activities, to encourage and facilitate partnerships to support the CDM, and to provide technical advice and support to clients for project design, planning and implementation.     

数字金融、家庭财富与共同富裕

文章使用2017年中国家庭金融调查(CHFS)数据,实证研究了数字金融对家庭财富积累、财富不平等的影响。研究发现:(1)在考虑了内生性问题的影响后,数字金融能够显著促进家庭财富积累,经过使用多种方法进行稳健性检验,该结论依然成立。(2)创业和配置风险金融资产是数字金融影响家庭财富的重要渠道。(3)财富规模越小的家庭,使用数字金融产生的创富作用越大,并且老年人、低教育程度、低收入水平、农业户口群体家庭和农村居民家庭使用数字金融能够产生更大的创富作用。总的来说,财富是富裕的题中之义,数字金融能够在提升家庭财富总体水平的基础上缓解财富不平等,从而有利于实现共同富裕。文章的研究发现为推动共同富裕提供了政策参考依据。     

Globalization, industrialization and urbanization in Pre-World War II Southeast Asia

This article uses new data to analyze the impact on Southeast Asian urbanization of globalization and industrialization in the world economy's core countries between the 1870s and World War II. Dramatic falls in transport costs and free trade, enforced, if necessary, by colonial rule, combined to open vast frontier areas throughout Southeast Asia to global commerce and create a handful of large urban centres. These cities, through linking Southeast Asian primary commodity exporters to world markets, grew predominantly as part of the global economy. Our econometric analysis shows that measures of globalization — in particular industrial production in the world core and international transport costs — are much better predictors of the size of Southeast Asia's main cities than domestic factors such as total population, GDP per capita, land area or government expenditure.     

Japan's Policy Stance on East Asian Neo-Regionalism: From Being a “Reluctant”, to Becoming a “Proactive” State

Abstract

This article is a theoretically grounded empirical contribution aimed at shedding light on Japan's policy stance on East Asian neo-regionalism. It aims to examine the recent region-building process in East Asia. The dynamics in East Asia suggest that regional institutionalization, brought about by norm diffusion based on the idea of neo-regionalism, is likely to follow a progressive and evolutionary trajectory through the institutionalization of the Association of Southeast Asian Nation (ASEAN)?+?3 (South Korea, Japan and China). It provides a wide spectrum of regional-integrationist perspectives in order to offer as full a picture as possible of Japan's role in promoting regional integration in East Asia. The key finding of this article is that Japan has changed from a being “reluctant”, to becoming a “proactive” state in the context of regional collaboration in East Asia.     

数字经济发展、数字鸿沟与城乡居民收入差距

在借鉴测度数字经济的国际权威体系的基础上,文章从六个维度构建了数字经济发展指标,形成2012-2018年省级平衡面板数据,探讨了数字经济发展对城乡居民收入差距的影响。实证研究发现,数字经济发展与城乡居民收入差距之间存在U型关系,即数字经济发展初期会降低城乡收入差距,但数字经济的进一步发展会拉大城乡收入差距,产生数字鸿沟问题。该结论在一系列稳健性检验后依然成立。机制检验发现,数字经济发展通过影响城镇化和城乡居民相对创业水平来影响城乡居民收入差距,在数字经济发展早期,数字经济发展能够促进城镇化以及更多提升乡村的创业水平,但数字经济发展后期,其会导致"逆城镇化"以及更多提升城市的创业水平。进一步研究发现,农村基础设施建设的推进和农村金融发展水平的提升都可以显著地调节数字经济发展与城乡居民收入差距之间的U型关系,加强数字经济初始发展阶段对于缓解城乡收入差距的积极作用,抑制数字经济发展后期拉大城乡收入差距的消极作用。文章的研究结果表明加大农村基础设施投资力度和加快农村金融发展是确保数字经济发展惠及农村居民的重要保障,由此形成推动我国数字经济包容性发展的政策建言。     

乡村振兴背景下互联网使用对农民创业的影响及机制研究

乡村振兴是新时代"三农"工作的总抓手，而互联网则是助力实现乡村振兴的重要抓手。文章基于2016年中国家庭追踪调查数据，论证了互联网使用对农民创业的影响与机制。研究发现：互联网使用与农民创业呈显著正相关；采用替代变量法进行稳健性检验及工具变量法与倾向得分匹配法处理内生性问题之后，互联网使用依然具有"创业效应"；机制分析表明，信息渠道效应、社会资本效应与风险偏好效应是互联网使用影响农民创业的重要渠道。"产业兴旺、生活富裕"是乡村振兴战略的两大要求。在乡村振兴背景下，全面推进互联网进村入户，提高农民互联网使用率，有助于发挥互联网服务农民创业的功能。另外，应继续优化农民创业环境，不断释放农民创业潜力，加速乡村振兴战略目标的实现。     

制度范式下的中国农村金融制度变迁与改革路径研究

现阶段,由于我国的农村金融受到政府、金融机构和外部环境等多种力量的制约,表现出严重的金融抑制。主要表现为农村金融供给机制不健全,资源分配不公,正规金融供给不足,商业性金融在农村金融领域内的功能严重弱化,政策性金融功能不全,合作性金融由于自身条件的限制,难以适应农业和农村经济发展的新变化,非正规金融所具有的制度缺陷也严重影响了它金融支持作用的充分发挥。所有这一切,都需要从全新的视角来审视今天的农村金融制度安排,要从根源上把握农村金融制度创新的方向,创新农村金融制度,加速金融深化,推进农村金融市场良性发展。     

中国“三农”创新创业政策的历史演进：基于中央一号文件的语料库研究

创新创业成为中国解决"三农"问题的重要途径，而"三农"创新创业与国家相关政策的引导和支持密不可分。学者们对"三农"创新创业关注颇多，但尚未对相关政策进行系统的历时梳理，难以从整体上把握"三农"创新创业政策的发展脉络。文章基于话语历史分析框架、运用语料库研究方法对历年中央一号文件进行话语分析，以此透视中国"三农"创新创业政策的历史演进。研究发现，随着历史阶段的逐步推进：（1）中央一号文件始终围绕"农村"和"农业"的主题，对"创新"、"创业"及其部分同义词的提及率逐步甚至迅速上升，这在话语上佐证了政府日趋重视"三农"创新创业；（2）中央一号文件中"农民"的关键性有所降低，对其他创新创业主体和形式的提及率逐步上升，表明"三农"创新创业的主体趋于多元化、内容逐渐丰富；（3）中央一号文件政策话语中的政策态度从"加快"、"实行"逐步过渡到"稳定"与"完善"，说明"三农"创新创业政策体系已逐步形成。研究揭示了社会历史演进情境下"三农"创新创业政策的发展规律，深化了人们对核心"三农"政策及相关创新创业活动的历时性认识，而本研究对话语历史分析及语料库分析方法的引入也为政策话语分析提供了新的研究思路。