Immigration Wage Effects by Origin

We estimate the direct partial wage effects of immigrant‐induced increases in labor supply, using the national skill cell approach with longitudinal records drawn from Norwegian administrative registers. The results show overall negative but heterogeneous wage effects, with larger effects on immigrant wages than on native wages and with native wages more responsive to inflows from Nordic countries than from developing countries. These patterns are consistent with natives and Nordic citizens being close substitutes, while natives and immigrants from developing countries are imperfect substitutes. Estimates are sensitive to accounting for effective immigrant experience, selective native participation, and variation in demand conditions and native labor supply.     

Assimilation to a Welfare State: Labor Market Performance and Use of Social Benefits by Immigrants to Finland*

This paper documents the economic performance of immigrants in a country characterized by an extensive welfare state and a short immigration history. Upon arrival, immigrants to Finland have substantially lower employment rates than comparable natives. While they experience rapid employment growth, only men from OECD countries catch up with natives. Despite the persisting employment and earnings differences between non‐OECD immigrants and natives, the differences in income transfers disappear in roughly 20 years. The immigrant–native employment gaps are larger in Finland than in Australia, Canada, or the US.     

Selection and network effects—Migration flows into OECD countries 1990-2000

This paper presents empirical evidence on immigration flows into the OECD countries during the period 1990-2000. Our results indicate that network effects are strong, but vary between different groups of welfare states and between countries according to the type of immigration policy being applied. Network effects seem to be less important in the Nordic countries which also seem to attract immigrants from the lowest income level source countries. We do not find clear evidence that selection effects measured by migration flows being sensitive to differences in public social expenditures have had a major influence on the observed migration patterns until now. This may partly be explained by restrictive migration policies which may have dampened the potential selection effects.     

Do Australian Qualifications Help? The Effect of Host Country Qualification on Migrant Participation and Unemployment*

The current Australian migration program rewards applicants for possessing Australian tertiary qualifications. This study examines whether such qualifications help mitigate the labour market disadvantages faced by immigrants in Australia. The effect of host country qualification on labour market assimilation is estimated by comparing the labour force participation and unemployment of natives with two groups of migrants: those holding foreign qualifications and those holding Australian qualifications. Controlling for factors such as level of education and experience, there is no evidence that Australian qualifications result in better labour market outcomes for migrants.     

Technology, trade, and adjustment to immigration in Israel

In the early 1990s Israel experienced a surge of immigration from the former Soviet Union. Russian immigrants had high relative education levels. There is little evidence that the immigration shock put downward pressure on Israeli wages. We examine two mechanisms through which Israel may have absorbed labor-supply changes related to the Russian immigration: Global changes in production technology and national changes in output mix. Global changes in production techniques, which appear consistent with skill-biased technical change, were sufficient to more than offset Israel's change in relative factor supplies. Changes in output mix did not help Israel absorb changes in relative factor supplies.     

Labor Market Effects of Economic Integration: The Impact of Re-Unification in German Border Regions

Abstract. This paper exploits the significant reduction in impediments to labor mobility in the process of German re-unification in order to identify labor supply shocks in the West German labor market. The focus is on the quasi-experiment of the border removal in the regions situated at the German–German border that faced a massive increase of cross-border labor supply. The results indicate that despite a gain in employment, the border removal was accompanied by a decline in wages and an increase in unemployment relative to other West German regions.     

Reinterpreting the performance of immigrant wages from panel data

Immigrants differ from the native born in terms of unobserved factors, such as motivation, and observed factors, including those related to the interruption of labour market activity and earning capacity, which may bias estimates of immigrant integration. Using panel data from the Survey of Labour and Income Dynamics, we show that using potential experience, rather than actual experience, exaggerates estimates of the disruption and recovery caused by immigration. More importantly, we find support for omitted variables bias, arising from unobserved fixed effects. Instrumental variable estimates for both pooled and separate samples of immigrant and native born men demonstrate a wage disadvantage for immigrants upon entry that persists through their lifetime. Standard estimates of a modest wage advantage for the children of immigrants also suffer from omitted variables bias arising from unobservables. Contrary to most of the literature to date, our instrumental variable estimates which allow for unobservable fixed effects suggest that immigrants never catch up to otherwise comparable native born workers, but their children do just as well. We would like to thank Statistics Canada for permitting access to the data and solving associated technical problems, the Prairier Centre for Research on Immigration and Integration for financial assistance, and Peter Schnabl for excellent research assistance. An earlier version of this paper was presented to the 10th International Conference on Panel Data in Berlin, July 5–6, 2002. The authors take sole responsibility for errors, omissions and interpretation of the data.     

Do Immigrants Affect Firm‐Specific Wages?*

We propose and test a novel effect of immigration on wages. Existing studies have focused on the wage effects that result from changes in the aggregate labour supply in a competitive labour market. We argue that if labour markets are not fully competitive, immigrants might also affect wage formation at the most disaggregate level – the workplace. Using linked employer?employee data, we find that an increased use of low‐skilled immigrant workers has a significantly negative effect on the wages of native workers at the workplace – also when controlling for potential endogeneity of the immigrant share using both fixed effects and instrumental variables.     

Income comparisons and attitudes towards foreigners - Evidence from a natural experiment

We exploit a natural experiment related to the German re-unification to address whether disutility from income comparisons affects attitudes towards foreigners. Our empirical approach rests upon East German individuals with West German relatives and friends. We use the exogenous variation of wealth of West Germans shortly after the fall of the Berlin Wall as an instrument to identify the effect of disutility from income comparisons on East Germans’ attitudes. We find robust evidence that East Germans express more negative attitudes towards foreigners, particularly from low-wage countries, if they worry about their economic status compared to better-off West Germans.     

The microeconomic determinants of emigration and return migration of the best and brightest: Evidence from the Pacific

A unique survey which tracks worldwide the best and brightest academic performers from three Pacific countries is used to assess the extent of emigration and return migration among the very highly skilled, and to analyze, at the microeconomic level, the determinants of these migration choices. Although we estimate that the income gains from migration are very large, not everyone migrates and many return. Within this group of highly skilled individuals the emigration decision is found to be most strongly associated with preference variables such as risk aversion and patience, and choice of subjects in secondary school, and not strongly linked to either liquidity constraints or to the gain in income to be had from migrating. Likewise, the decision to return is strongly linked to family and lifestyle reasons, rather than to the income opportunities in different countries. Overall the data suggest a relatively limited role for income maximization in distinguishing migration propensities among the very highly skilled, and a need to pay more attention to other components of the utility maximization decision.     

The mover’s advantage: The superior performance of migrant scientists

Migrant scientists outperform domestic scientists. The result persists after instrumenting migration for reasons of work or study with migration in childhood to minimize the effect of selection. The results are consistent with theories of knowledge recombination and specialty matching.     

Heaven's Swing Door: Endogenous Skills,Migration Networks,and the Effectiveness of Quality‐Selective Immigration Policies

A growing number of OECD countries are leaning toward the adoption of selective immigration policies, which are expected to raise the quality (or education level) of migrants. This view neglects two important dynamic effects: the role of migration networks, which could reduce the quality of migrants, and the responsiveness of education decisions to the prospect of migration. We propose a model of self‐selection into migration with endogenous education choices, which predicts that migration networks and the quality of migrants can be positively associated when destination countries adopt sufficiently selective immigration policies. Empirical evidence, presented as background motivation, suggests that this is indeed the case.     

Low‐inflation Targeting and Long‐run Unemployment*

The model of Akerlof, Dickens and Perry (2000) (ADP) predicts that low inflation may cause unemployment to persist at high levels. When applied to U.S. data, their results strongly rejected the conventional NAIRU model. We apply the ADP model to Swedish data. The fact that our Swedish data also reject the NAIRU model has a number of interesting implications for the Swedish economy and, potentially, for other European countries as well. The results indicate that raising the Swedish inflation target from 2 to 4 percent would bring long‐run unemployment down by several percentage points. The possibility of ADP‐type long‐run Phillips curves also across the euro countries may raise some concern about the EMU project. While detailed studies on other countries are needed, there is nothing to suggest that these non‐vertical Phillips curves would not differ considerably across the euro countries. Any single inflation level targeted by the ECB would then generate excess unemployment in individual member states.     

Migration,Unemployment, and Skill Downgrading

In this paper, we analyze the labor market impacts of immigration under flexible and rigid labor market regimes. A general equilibrium framework is developed, accounting for skill heterogeneity and labor market frictions, where unemployed medium‐skilled manufacturing workers are downgraded into low‐skilled service jobs, while low‐skilled service workers might end up unemployed. The analytical analysis shows that medium‐skill immigration decreases low‐skilled unemployment under the flexible regime, indicating a complementarity effect, while the rigid regime induces a substitution effect, leading to low‐skilled unemployment. Moreover, it leads to wage polarization. In a numerical analysis, the economic effects of different migration scenarios are quantified.     

Immigrant Selection in the OECD*

In this paper, we examine the determinants of educational selectivity in immigration using immigrant stock data for 70 source countries and 21 OECD destination countries, as observed in the year 2000/2001. We develop a variant of the Roy model to estimate the determinants of educational selectivity. Two key findings emerge. First, the effect of the skill premium, which is at the core of the Roy model, can be observed only after we take into account the poverty constraints operating in the source countries. Second, cultural similarities, colonial legacies, and physical distance are often more important determinants of educational selectivity than wage incentives or selective immigration policy.     

International migration and “educated unemployment”

This paper provides a novel explanation of “educated unemployment”, which is a salient feature of the labor markets in a number of developing countries. In a simple job-search framework we show that “educated unemployment” is caused by the prospect of international migration, that is, by the possibility of a “brain drain”. In addition, the analysis shows that a developing country may end up with more educated workers despite the brain drain and educated unemployment.     

Mismatches in the Spanish Labor Market: Education vs. Competence Match

The accuracy of the match between a workers talents, skills, and capabilities and those required by his or her job has seldom been addressed in the empirical literature. However, a number of analyses on the match between workers education levels and those required by jobs have been published over the last 10 years. Obviously, the level of formal education completed by workers is more easily observed than their levels of human capital competences. Indeed, the latter would be rather difficult to observe. Nonetheless, this approximation is not straightforward, since formal education is only a mean for the acquisition of some human capital competences. We cross-examine the education match and the competence match between the supply and the demand of labor in Spain with data from 1998. Our results suggest that both types of matches do differ in their incidence, determinants, and wage consequences.     

Employment, wages, and the economic cycle: Differences between immigrants and natives

In this paper, we analyse differences in the cyclical pattern of employment and wages of immigrants and natives for two large immigrant receiving countries, Germany and the UK. We show that, despite large differences in their immigrant populations, there are similar and significant differences in cyclical responses between immigrants and natives in both countries, even conditional on education, age, and location. We decompose changes in outcomes into a secular trend and a business cycle component. We find significantly larger unemployment responses to economic shocks for low-skilled workers relative to high-skilled workers and for immigrants relative to natives within the same skill group. There is little evidence for differential wage responses to economic shocks. We offer three explanations for these findings: an equilibrium search model, where immigrants experience higher job separation rates, a model of dual labour markets, and differences in the complementarity of immigrants and natives to capital.     

United States Immigration Policy: The 1965 Act and its Consequences

The United States Immigration Act of 1965 was followed by a steep upward trend in total immigration, and by a dramatic shift in the source‐country composition away from Europe and towards Asia and Latin America. In this paper I ask if and how the 1965 Act generated these unanticipated consequences. The result was partly because of the pre‐existing legislation and partly because of the admission of immigrants outside the terms of the Act. However, much of it was a result of the Act itself, and specifically because of family reunification effects that were larger, the poorer the source country.