Federalism, education-related public good and growth when agents are heterogeneous

In this paper we use an endogenous-growth model with human capital and heterogeneous agents to analyse the relationship between fiscal federalism and economic growth. The results show that federalism, which allows education-related public good levels to be tailored to the local distribution of human capital, increases human capital accumulation. This in turn leads to higher rates of growth. The benefits of federalism are stronger, the larger the intra-jurisdiction variance of agents’ human capital.     

单一制国家财政联邦制的“中央-地方”财政关系

财政联邦主义是联邦主义政治理念在财政领域的应用。在单一制政治体制下实行财政联邦主义,中央和地方之间的财政关系有其特殊之处。文章通过构建两种异质群的演化博弈模型,采用系统动力学方法研究了中国"中央—地方"财政关系的演化特征。研究发现,当前的固定分权格局使中国的中央财政与地方财政之间处于一种失衡状态,存在"一放即乱,一收即死"的"治乱循环"。     

Decentralisation and income inequality in Central and Eastern European countries

This paper provides empirical evidence for the association between fiscal decentralisation and income distribution for a panel of 11 economies from Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) during 1992–2016. We focus on three research topics: the effect of decentralisation on income inequality; the effects of the structure of subnational government finance on income inequality; and the validity of the Kuznets hypothesis. The main findings from the empirical exercise are as follows: first, we provide firm evidence on the presumed favourable effects of fiscal decentralisation on income distribution in the CEE countries; second, our empirical model suggests that the effects of fiscal decentralisation on income inequality are dependent on the source of finance of subnational governments, i.e. intergovernmental transfers may have a role in income equalisation; third, we cannot confirm the validity of the Kuznets hypothesis in CEE countries.     

The role of Provincial Government Spending Composition in growth and convergence in China

China’s development policy since 1978 has differed across regions. With rapid aggregate growth has come widening regional inequality. The fiscal decentralisation reforms in 1994 shifted political pressure onto provincial officials to boost local growth through local public investments. These investments affect regional convergence by counteracting regulatory frictions in factor accumulation, and can also determine steady-state growth. However, the effect of public spending allocations across physical and human capital on growth and convergence processes is empirically unexplored for Chinese provinces. We take provincial time-series data on public spending by category, finding local public spending and its components augment convergence rates differently across regions. Spending on education and health contributes significantly more to growth and convergence than capital spending, confirming that the public capital-spending bias is not a local growth-optimising strategy. We suggest a policy of aligning local government promotion incentives to human capital targets to correct local resource misallocation.     

Fiscal federalism and the composition of public investment in Europe

We analyse the determinants of the composition of public investment in Europe, with a special focus on the role of fiscal decentralisation. The results suggest that fiscal decentralisation boosts economically productive public investment, notably infrastructure, and curbs the relative share of economically less productive investment, such as recreational facilities. While not readily reconcilable with the traditional theory of fiscal federalism, these findings can be interpreted in terms of the literature on fiscal competition, with not only tax rates but also the quality of public expenditure weighing in firms' location decisions.     

Immigration, fertility, and human capital: A model of economic decline of the West

I show how the influences of unskilled immigration, differential fertility between immigrants and the local indigenous population, and incentives for investment in human capital combine to predict the decline of the West. In particular, indigenous low-skilled workers lose from unskilled immigration even if the indigenous low-skilled workers do not finance redistribution, do not compete with immigrants in the labor market, and do not compete with immigrants for publicly financed income transfers. For the economy at large, high-fertility unskilled immigrants and a low-fertility indigenous population result in economic decline through reduced human capital accumulation and reduced growth of per-capita output.     

科技与金融结合对全要素生产率的影响——基于“促进科技和金融结合试点”准自然实验的经验证据

将科技和金融结合试点政策视为一项准自然实验,基于2005—2017年中国283个城市数据,采用双重差分法评估科技和金融结合试点政策对全要素生产率的影响。结果发现：①科技和金融结合试点政策对全要素生产率具有正向影响且通过了显著性水平检验;②科技和金融结合试点政策主要通过提高城市创新水平和融资能力等途径促进全要素生产率增长,创新水平、融资能力在科技和金融结合试点与全要素生产率间起中介作用;③科技和金融结合试点政策对全要素生产率的影响存在异质性,经济发展水平较高、金融发展水平较高的城市,科技和金融结合试点政策对全要素生产率的影响更大。由此建议,加大金融资源支持力度,缓解企业融资约束,加强政府对创新的支持。     

Education,labor-force participation,and fertility in the USSR

The effect of education on Soviet fertility and female labor participation is analyzed in terms of the neoclassical theory of the household. The hypotheses are tested by multivariate analysis of Soviet census data. The main findings are that the effect of education on urban fertility is opposite that in the West; in the USSR female education has a predominantly positive effect and male education a negative effect. Rural fertility is dominated by strong interaction between male and female education. A substantial portion of the total effect of education on fertility operates indirectly, through female labor participation. The results imply a backward-bending female labor-supply curve.     

分权与增长:中国的故事

过去十多年来,为了解释中国的经济转型与增长并更好地理解转型国家的增长差异,由CharlesTiebout发展起来的早期的分权理论被经济学家发扬光大了。新一代的财政分权或财政联邦主义的理论集结了经济学和政治学的元素,不再局限于公共财政的话题,而是将视野转向了地方官员在维护市场、促进竞争与推动经济增长中的激励和行为。本文以中国的中央地方关系的体制演进,尤其是1978年之后的财政分权的重要经验为依托,回顾和讨论了这个第二代财政分权理论的发展脉络与经验研究的成果,从一个角度讲述了转型与增长的中国故事。     

Fertility choice,mortality expectations,and interdependent preferences—An empirical analysis

We investigate the empirical relationship between child mortality and fertility across 46 low and middle income countries. Specifically, we model the effect of mortality expectations and interdependent fertility preferences on fertility. The direct marginal effect of mortality expectations on fertility is larger than zero but less than unity. This implies that a decrease in mortality rates leads to a decrease in children born but to an increase in the number of surviving children and hence the rate of population growth. Taking into account interdependent fertility preferences, whereby an individual's fertility choice affects the fertility decisions of others, the marginal effect of mortality expectations on fertility becomes one. Hence, if we allow for both mortality expectations and the amplifying effect of interdependent fertility preferences, a decrease in child mortality has no net effect on the rate of population growth.     

从美日经验看地方政府债券制度

地方政府债务风险已经成为威胁我国经济安全与社会稳定的巨大隐患。地方政府是制度变迁的主体,造成地方财政困境的根本原因在于地方政府事权、财权不对称,没有规范的制度化融资渠道。而只要存在中央与地方分权的财政联邦主义,就具备发行地方政府债券的前提。     

Life expectancy and economic development: Evidence from microdata

This study examines the effect of life expectancy on fertility, education, and labor force participation. Using birth and sibling histories from the Demographic Health Surveys conducted in sub‐Saharan Africa, I construct a time series of age‐specific birth rates and mortality rates at the country‐region level. I use these data to test the implications of a general equilibrium model linking life expectancy to fertility, human capital, and labor supply. My results suggest that increases in life expectancy reduce fertility, increase education, and increase labor force participation. Overall, my empirical results suggest that in sub‐Saharan Africa, increases in life expectancy will have a positive impact on growth through fertility, education, and labor supply but that the effect will be small. My results also rule out the possibility that recent shocks to adult mortality in high HIV prevalence countries will reduce fertility, increase labor productivity, and lead to faster growth.     

Italy’s demographic trap: Voting for childcare subsidies and fertility outcomes

In this paper we study how population aging impacts the age distribution of the voting electorate and voters’ choices over childcare subsidies. We build a computable general equilibrium framework populated by heterogeneous agents who, over the course of their life-cycle, make endogenous and age-dependent fertility choices. The model is calibrated to match economic and population outcomes of the Italian economy. Child support favors young and fertile cohorts but can also impact all population subgroups through changes in prices, income taxation and population growth. A probabilistic voting model is used to measure voting outcomes over a range of childcare subsidy levels and tax policies. Our findings show that childcare subsidies have a positive impact on the total fertility rate and are welfare improving when financed with both capital and labor income taxation and in combination with lower pension contribution rates. A 10 percent increase in the level of subsidies can increase the population growth rate by an average of 0.47–0.70 percentage points. We find that voting choices of different population subgroups, while depending on the tax used to finance new expenditure, lead to lower levels of childcare subsidies, lower fertility rates and to a demographic ‘trap’.     

Inflation and the finance–growth nexus

This paper re-investigates whether there exist inflation thresholds in the finance–growth linkage. By applying the Caner and Hansen's (2004) instrumental-variable threshold regression approach to the dataset of Levine et al. (2000), we find strong evidence of a nonlinear inflation threshold in the relationship, below which financial development exerts a significantly positive effect on economic growth, while, above which, the growth effect of finance appears to be insignificant. Furthermore, we also find a positive and significant relationship between finance and productivity for inflation rates below the threshold level, but no such relationship is detected for inflation rates above the critical level. This result suggests that finance influences growth mainly through the productivity channel.     

Money, endogenous fertility and economic growth

This paper analyzes the issue of money superneutrality through an intertemporal optimizing model of capital accumulation with endogenous fertility, i.e. endogenous population growth. Two elements of this setup invalidate money superneutrality: (i) a demand for fertility that depends on real money balances, and (ii) an inverse relation between capital–labor ratio and population growth. Higher monetary growth increases fertility, since it reduces its opportunity cost, and hence diminishes capital intensity, and per capita output. This reverse Tobin effect is matched by an increase in aggregate capital and output growth rates. In this framework, the optimal monetary growth rule is a “distorted Friedman rule”.     

土地财政制度对房地产价格的影响因素研究*

本文基于动态系统GMM模型,运用Stata软件和计量经济学方法,对2009—2015年中国15个大中城市房价水平的变化趋势进行研究。结果表明：（1）地方政府依靠土地财政和房地产维持地方财政,土地财政是导致房价上涨的根本原因。（2）在经济下行的背景下,地方政府和房企共同经营土地,地方政府试图通过做大土地财政拉动地方经济。（3）中央政府选择有利于中央政府效用水平增加的经济发展方式。所以中央政府、地方政府与房企会形成经济增长联盟共同推动房价上涨。（4）房企行为对土地财政导致的高房价具有放大效应,且作用效果在东部、中西部地区呈现明显的区域差异。本文的贡献是发现了房企行为与土地财政、房价上涨之间相互作用的逻辑关系,为找到缓解房地产价格上涨的措施提供了新的可能性。     

Fiscal decentralisation,local institutions and public good provision: evidence from Indonesia

Using data from the Indonesian Family Life Surveys, we study the impact of fiscal decentralisation in Indonesia on local public spending across communities characterised by different types of informal and formal institutions. Our results provide new evidence that fiscal decentralisation led to a significant increase in community spending on social infrastructure (health and education) in communities which observed strict adherence to customary laws and had a tradition of local democracy. We argue that investment in transport and communication facilitates exchange with outsiders and improves the outside options of community members, thus making it more difficult to sustain intra-community cooperation. Consequently, communities which enjoy a high level of cooperation in collective activities benefit less from investing in transport and communication and are more inclined to invest in social infrastructure.     

A tale of two federalisms: Germany,the United States and the ubiquity of centralization

This paper offers a comparison of government centralization in the United States and in Germany. After briefly laying out the history of federalism in both countries, we identify the instruments of centralization at work. It is argued that an initial constitutional framework of competitive federalism does not prevent the long-term centralization of competencies. Against a background of historical evidence, we discuss the political economics of government centralization. It is argued that formal institutions clearly have an effect on the pathways of government centralization, but not necessarily on the broader trend of centralization. The conclusion is reached that preservation of state and local autonomy may eventually hinge on informal political institutions.     

Remittances,financial development,and growth

Despite the increasing importance of remittances in total international capital flows, the relationship between remittances and growth has not been adequately studied. This paper studies one of the links between remittances and growth, in particular how local financial sector development influences a country's capacity to take advantage of remittances. Using a newly-constructed dataset for remittances covering about 100 developing countries, we find that remittances boost growth in countries with less developed financial systems by providing an alternative way to finance investment and helping overcome liquidity constraints. This finding controls for the endogeneity of remittances and financial development, does not depend on the particular measure of financial sector development used, and is robust to a number of robustness tests, including threshold estimation. We also provide evidence that there could be an investment channel trough which remittances can promote growth especially when the financial sector does not meet the credit needs of the population.     

数字金融发展能否在农村金融市场发挥“鲶鱼效应”*——来自中国农信机构的证据

本文从农信机构贷款支农的角度出发，探究数字金融能够在多大程度上促进市场竞争，进而在农村金融市场发挥“鲶鱼效应”。理论部分基于市场势力假说，分析了数字金融发展对农信机构放贷行为的影响；实证部分将北京大学数字普惠金融的县级指数与县域农村信用社、农村商业银行的贷款数据相结合，对理论假说进行了检验。结论如下：第一，数字金融发展能够激励当地农信机构提升涉农贷款和农户贷款的投放规模和增长速度，表明数字金融在农村金融市场上发挥了“鲶鱼效应”。第二，数字金融发展对农信机构支农力度的正向影响主要来源于竞争激励机制，而现阶段数字金融难以在技术上对农信机构起到示范作用。第三，进一步讨论发现，数字金融发展还有助于降低农信机构的贷款利率，让更多的涉农主体享受到利率更低的信贷服务，真正推动农村正规金融服务的“普”和“惠”共同实现。