THE DISTANCE PUZZLE AND LOW‐INCOME COUNTRIES: AN UPDATE

The ‘distance effect' measuring the elasticity of trade flows to distance has been found to be rising since the early 1970s in a host of studies based on the gravity model, leading observers to call it the ‘distance puzzle'. However, this puzzle is regularly challenged by new developments in the specification of the gravity equation or in its estimations. We propose an original survey on the existing methods used to quantify the distance puzzle – basically the computation of an average distance of trade, a meta‐analysis on existing gravity papers and the implementation of recent econometric developments, all on a well‐specified gravity equation both in cross‐section and panel data. We apply all these methods to a unique large database (124 countries from 1970 to 2006). It appears that if all these new developments can change the amplitude of the increase in the trade elasticity to distance, none solve the distance puzzle. We confirm the existence of this puzzle and identify that it only applies to low‐income countries which exhibit a significant rising distance effect on their trade of around 18% between 1970 and 2006 while the distance ‘puzzle' for trade within richer countries disappears.     

BRIDGING TRADE THEORY AND LABOUR ECONOMETRICS: THE EFFECTS OF INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION*

Abstract This paper surveys current theoretical and empirical research on international migration with a particular emphasis on the links between trade theory and labour empirics.     

ELECTRONIC CURRENCY IN AFRICA: M‐PESA AS PRIVATE INSIDE MONEY

Electronic monies such as Bitcoin and mobile money have become popular in recent times. However, unlike with bitcoin, attempts to classify M‐Pesa theoretically have been rare. This article classifies M‐Pesa as a privately issued inside money, which evolved as an entrepreneurial response to the lack of traditional monies. It describes the institutional framework within which M‐Pesa and other monies evolved while highlighting how competitive forces led to mutual acceptance of competing inside monies, lower prices as well as greater choice for consumers. The case of M‐Pesa and other electronic monies illustrates the potential even today for entrepreneurial and market processes in money given the right institutional setting, especially in developing countries.     

FINANCIAL CRISIS RESOLUTION – THE STATE AS A LENDER OF LAST RESORT?

What is the theoretical basis for spending billions of dollars to fight the financial and economic crisis? Neither the model of an omnipotent state nor that of a welfare‐maximising state seems appropriate. We propose a model of a contractual state resulting from an exchange of protection against systemic risks against regulation of the banking sector. During the years of globalisation governments have neglected to install institutions to reduce systematic risks and currently pay the price for their laxity. We evaluate what can be undertaken in both the short and long run and how far a framework can be enforced internationally.     

EMBODIED CARBON IN TRADE: A SURVEY OF THE EMPIRICAL LITERATURE

This paper critically reviews the literature on embodied carbon in trade and evaluates our present empirical understanding of these flows. A careful comparison of quantitative results from this literature exposes significant inconsistencies. For instance, estimates for emission embodied in world trade in 2004 range between 4.4 Gt and 6.2 Gt CO2, the difference corresponding to around half of Europe's annual emissions. A few consistent themes do nevertheless emerge from the literature. Most importantly, emissions in trade constitute a large and growing share of global emissions. Uncertainty about country‐level embodied emissions remains large, however, which presents severe limitations for the practical application of embodied carbon principles in climate policy.     

THE DEBATE ABOUT THE REVIVED BRETTON‐WOODS REGIME: A SURVEY AND EXTENSION OF THE LITERATURE

This paper surveys the literature dealing with the thesis put forward by Dooley, Folkerts‐Landau and Garber (DFG) that the present constellation of global exchange‐rate arrangements constitutes a revived Bretton‐Woods regime. DFG also argue that the revived regime will be sustainable, despite its large global imbalances. While much of the literature generated by DFG's thesis points to specific differences between the earlier regime and revived regime that render the latter unstable, we argue that an underlying similarity between the two regimes renders the revived regime unstable. Specifically, to the extent that the present system constitutes a revived Bretton‐Woods system, it is vulnerable to the same set of destabilizing forces – including asset‐price bubbles and global financial crises – that marked the latter years of the earlier regime, leading to its breakdown. We extend the Markov switching model to examine the relation between global liquidity and commodity prices. We find an evidence of commodity‐price bubbles in both the latter stages of the earlier Bretton‐Woods regime and the revived regime.     

THE EURO'S TRADE EFFECT: A META‐ANALYSIS

Many studies have estimated the trade effect of the euro, but their results vary greatly. This meta‐analysis collects 3323 estimates of the euro effect along with 28 characteristics of estimation design from almost 60 studies and quantitatively examines the literature. The results show evidence of publication bias, but they also suggest that the bias decreases over time. After correcting for the bias, the meta‐analysis shows that the literature is consistent with an effect ranging between 2% and 6%. The results from Bayesian model averaging, which takes into account model uncertainty, show that the differences among estimates are systematically driven by data sources, data structure, control variables, and estimation techniques. The mean reported estimate of the euro's trade effect conditional on best‐practice approach is 3%, but is not statistically different from zero.     

THE CLIOMETRICS OF INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION: A SURVEY

Abstract This is a survey of some of the key studies in the literature on international migration in history that may be described as cliometric. This literature uses the concepts and approaches of applied economics to investigate a range of historical issues and there are strong parallels with the questions that have been addressed in the literature on contemporary migrations. Here I focus on the period 1850–1940 and chiefly on migration from Europe to the New World. The survey is organized around six themes that include the forces driving migration, over time and across space; the assimilation of migrants and their effects on wages and income distribution in source and destination countries; and the evolution of immigration policy. Although this literature has drawn heavily on the tool kit of applied economists it also provides a wider perspective on many of the issues that concern migration today.     

RISE OF THE THERAPEUTIC STATE: NEW CHALLENGES FOR TWENTY‐FIRST‐CENTURY MEDICINE

In recent history, the politics of health has drifted inexorably towards a paradigm in which it is the responsibility of the state rather than of individuals to manage their health. What were once considered private health matters for individuals are now attributed with society‐wide importance. This has given rise to a strident ‘therapeutic state’ which pays obsessive interest in its citizens’ eating, drinking, smoking, exercise and sexual habits. However, many of the therapeutic state's own recommendations are poorly evidenced and doctrinaire. The lack of accountability and adverse incentives which creeping state intrusiveness brings will ultimately disconnect the health system from the needs of citizens and treat their personal information with inexcusable carelessness.     

GLOBAL VALUE CHAINS: A SURVEY OF DRIVERS AND MEASURES

Global value chains (GVCs) emerged as the paradigm for the international organization of production. For most goods and services production is nowadays vertically fragmented across different countries and this reality gave rise to a significant new strand of research in international trade. This article starts by discussing the major driving forces of GVCs in recent decades. Next, it surveys the main measures of GVCs, accounting for their different scopes and required data sets. The article highlights the timing of the contributions to the literature, signalling their sequential nature and the trend toward more accurate and data‐demanding indicators.     

FROM THE CLASSICAL ECONOMISTS TO EMPIRICISTS: A REVIEW OF THE TERMS OF TRADE CONTROVERSY

Contrary to the classical position, the works of Prebisch and Singer in the middle of the last century launched the controversial hypothesis of a long-term decline in the terms of trade of primary products vis-á-vis manufactured goods and a corresponding decline in the terms of trade of developing countries vis-á-vis advanced ones. The present study traces the origin and evolution of the hypothesis and reviews the related statistical debate. It also reviews the theoretical support for the Prebisch–Singer hypothesis. It is an exercise in the history of economic thought to trace how the controversies surrounding the terms of trade have evolved over time, specifically noting that, with the development of the field of econometrics, the central thesis of the argument got lost somewhere in the realm of hi-tech statistical debates.     

Macro‐integration with inequality constraints: an application to the integration of transport and trade statistics

Macro‐integration is the process of combining data from several sources at an aggregate level. We review a Bayesian approach to macro‐integration with special emphasis on the inclusion of inequality constraints. In particular, an approximate method of dealing with inequality constraints within the linear macro‐integration framework is proposed. This method is based on a normal approximation to the truncated multivariate normal distribution. The framework is then applied to the integration of international trade statistics and transport statistics. By combining these data sources, transit flows can be derived as differences between specific transport and trade flows. Two methods of imposing the inequality restrictions that transit flows must be non‐negative are compared. Moreover, the figures are improved by imposing the equality constraints that aggregates of incoming and outgoing transit flows must be equal.     

INTEREST RATE PASS‐THROUGH: A META‐ANALYSIS OF THE LITERATURE

The interest rate pass‐through describes how changes in a reference rate (the monetary policy, money market or T‐bill rate) transmit to bank lending rates. We review the empirical literature on the interest rate pass‐through and systematize it by means of meta‐analysis and meta‐regressions. Using the pass‐through to corporate lending rates as the baseline, we find systematically lower estimated pass‐through coefficients in studies that focus on the pass‐through to consumer lending rates and rates on long‐term loans. Also studies estimating the pass‐through by averaging all lending rates into one category report a lower pass‐through. Importantly, the interest rate pass‐through is significantly influenced by the country's macro‐financial environment. In economies with deepening stock markets, the estimated pass‐through strengthens significantly. Interestingly, after the global financial crisis, the pass‐through weakened across the board, including because of growing trade openness and supply chain financing, rising volatility and stock market turnovers, as well as declining central bank independence. Inflation targeting frameworks, if in place, helped diminish this pass‐through weakening.     

House price convergence in the euro zone: A pairwise approach

The adoption of the euro common currency was expected to lead to convergence for a number of economic and financial variables across national borders, including house prices. We apply a probabilistic pairwise approach to the question of whether home values converge across eight euro zone housing markets. Contrary to previous studies, we find only marginal evidence that euro housing markets converge. Moreover, for what convergence there appears to be, there is no evidence that the adoption of the euro itself played a role in creating such convergence. Finally, Germany, the largest and most dominant economy of the currency union, is rarely found to be convergent with other nations.     

INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION: A CASE AGAINST BUILDING EVER‐HIGHER FENCES

International migration, seen as a powerful force of truly global character that is shaping today's socio‐economic reality, is a highly controversial and politicised issue. This paper explores its ramifications in the context of a growing backlash against immigration across the rich world. Specifically, it argues that the free flow of people – like the free movement of goods and capital – is beneficial to developed and developing economies alike and, in doing so, shows how migration produces win–win outcomes. Thus the study, while admitting that inflows of foreign‐born workers pose challenges and entail trade‐offs, makes a case for the liberalisation of immigration policies. The paper deepens our understanding of the issues at hand and constitutes a voice in favour of liberal‐policy choices.     

BEHAVIORAL ECONOMICS AND BEHAVIORAL FINANCE: A BIBLIOMETRIC ANALYSIS OF THE SCIENTIFIC FIELDS

The aim of the study is to conduct a bibliometric analysis of the scientific field of Behavioral Economics and Behavioral Finance. The research was conducted using the Web of Science database, which returned 2617 articles, revealing that the amount of research within these fields has grown over time. Furthermore, the results also prove the relevance of the works of Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky for the field of Behavioral Economics and Finance, and Steven Hursh to Behavioral Economics. It is still possible to note that the field of Behavioral Economics encompasses subjects that connect human behavior with demand, consumption and price, with investments and with managerial decisions, as well as with the role played by heuristics and cognitive biases in decision‐making processes. In turn, the field of Behavioral Finance is more focused on the study of errors of judgment and of decision‐making characteristics in financial investments. Additionally, it is inferred that the field of Behavioral Economics is more wide‐ranging than the field of Behavioral Finance, as the latter is a byproduct of Behavioral Economics. Finally, a conclusion is then reached, demonstrating that the fields of Behavioral Economics and Finance have turned into an important field of study.     

RISE OF THE FIDUCIARY STATE: A SURVEY OF SOVEREIGN WEALTH FUND RESEARCH

We survey the literature documenting the rise of sovereign wealth funds (SWFs), which, with assets under management of over $5.4 trillion at year‐end 2014, are a major force in global finance. Research papers have analyzed the evolution of SWFs from stabilization funds to stand‐alone wealth management funds; we both survey this research and show that more than 25 countries have launched or proposed new SWFs since January 2008. The most salient and controversial feature of SWFs is that they are state‐owned; we survey the existing literature on state ownership and discuss what this predicts about the efficiency and beneficence of government control of SWF assets. We discuss the documented importance of SWF funding sources (oil sales revenues versus excess reserves from export earnings) and survey the normative literature describing how SWFs should allocate funds. We then summarize the empirical literature studying how SWFs actually do allocate funds—across asset classes, geographically, and across industries. We document that most SWF equity investments in publicly traded firms involve cross‐border purchases of sizeable minority stakes (median around 20%) in target firms, with a strong preference for investments in the financial sector. Next, we assess empirical studies examining the impact of SWF stock investments on target firm financial and operating performance, and find universal support for a positive announcement period stock price increase of 1–3%. This, however, is significantly lower than the 5% abnormal return documented for stock purchases by comparable privately owned financial investors in recent studies, indicating a “sovereign wealth fund discount.” We conclude by summarizing the lessons of SWF research and pointing out unresolved issues.     

THE INTERSECTION OF THE FIELDS OF ENTREPRENEURSHIP AND DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS: A REVIEW TOWARDS A NEW VIEW

Despite the popularity of promoting entrepreneurship and small and medium enterprises (SMEs) for economic development, there is little scientific basis on which policy makers can lean. The scholarly fields of entrepreneurship economics and development economics have been elaborated in isolation and only recently started to intersect. This growing intersection is, however, still fragmented, ad hoc, not based on a unifying theoretical approach and suffering from lack of proper measurement. Better policy making will hence benefit from the extension and deepening of the intersection of these fields. We contribute in this regard by providing a conceptual basis for the eventual elaboration of such a unified theoretical approach. We do so by providing an up‐to‐date review of the intersection of the two fields by noting the progress and gaps; by delineating the externalities associated with entrepreneurship in development and by proposing a synthesis definition of entrepreneurship.     

THE SPANISH EXTERNAL SECTOR: A POLICY OF TRADE OPENNESS

This paper describes the process of trade liberalisation experienced by the Spanish economy between 1960 and 2000. The path towards liberalisation involved progressive reductions of quantitative restrictions, which were replaced by border taxes. Over the period external openness grew, although along an irregular path.