Why does the peso-dollar exchange rate show a depreciation trend? The role of productivity differentials

Over the last three decades, Mexico's macroeconomic policy has been driven by a sound orthodox strategy: an open economy via many trade agreements signed since the mid-1980s, a nominal exchange rate under a flexible regime since 1994, central bank autonomy, and responsible fiscal policy, among other benchmarks. Nevertheless, the exchange rate has continued on a path of depreciation against the US dollar. In this paper, we show that although an equilibrium relationship exists between the exchange rate and prices in Mexico and the US (its main commercial partner), there are other forces affecting the former. The main factor in this relentless long-term depreciation is the loss of productivity in Mexico relative to the US. In addition, we show that the extraordinary liquidity supplied by the US during the 2008 crisis caused the Mexican peso to appreciate against the dollar.     

Effects of the Mexican Apple Tariff on the World Apple Market

In response to the USA blocking Mexican trucks from traveling to the inland part of the USA, Mexico imposed tariffs on US fresh apple exports. This study analyzes the impacts of the Mexican tariff on USA, Mexican and world apple markets by using theoretical analysis and developing a spatial equilibrium trade model. The results show that this tariff increases apple prices in Mexico, to the benefit of Mexican producers but harming Mexican consumers. Even though Mexico collects revenues from its tariff, the overall welfare impact is negative because consumers' loss outweighs producers' gain and tariff revenues. Since the USA exports less to Mexico, its prices and production decline, but consumption increases. To mitigate the export market loss to Mexico, the USA redirects its exports to other importing countries, displacing other apple exporting countries' trade with these importing countries.     

The Unexpected Effects of Criminal Violence along the Mexico-Texas Border

The violence and insecurity that Mexico suffered during former President Calderon’s war on the Mexican drug cartels have come at a grave economic cost to many cities. The criminal violence had an impact on interdependent borderlands, which are geographic areas that have a symbiotic link between cities and communities of adjoining territories. Mexican business people and consumers that live in cities along the shared border with the United States have the ability to shift their economic transactions away from their insecure environments and to US border communities. In addition, US residents that would normally travel south for economic transactions would decide to avoid violent areas and therefore conduct business on the northern side. This research demonstrates that increased violence in Mexico produced a positive economic effect on the US side of the Mexico–Texas interdependent borderlands. Specifically, our time series analysis (2002–2014) shows that increased homicides, kidnappings and extortions in adjacent Mexican cities are strongly associated with higher gross total sales in the Texas communities while controlling for economic and demographic factors. We also found that the increases in the three crime categories were not associated with the arts, entertainment and recreation sector, nor the accommodation and food services sector performance. However, there was a positive relationship with the retail sales sector.     

North–South Integration and the Location of Foreign Direct Investment

We investigate how North–South integration affects the location of foreign direct investment (FDI) between the two regions. The theoretical analysis suggests that integration affects the incentives of partner and nonpartner Northern countries to locate in the South differently and may lead to investment diversion from the Northern partner. We test our propositions using data from the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), the first major North–South integration scheme. We find that NAFTA partner FDI in Mexico has increased since the inception of NAFTA above what is implied by other determinants of FDI and the global upward trend during this time. Other countries have not increased their use of Mexico as an export platform. We also find no evidence that inward US FDI has been diverted. The results are robust to a number of different model and econometric specifications as well as the skill data used.     

Causes of Growth and Decline in Mexico’s Maquiladora Apparel Sector

Under the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) beginning in 1994, the maquiladora sector was the dynamic manufacturing sector in Mexico, and its apparel subsector was especially so, more than quadrupling in employment from December 1993 to July 2000. Yet NAFTA’s influence on apparel employment is hard to find in a careful time series econometric analysis. Instead, much of employment growth is explained for 1980 to the present by changes in US demand as measured by real US gross domestic product or by real US apparel spending, by US/Mexico relative labor cost as proxied by the real peso‐dollar exchange rate, and by the relaxation of quotas on US apparel imports from Mexico in 1988–1990. In equations including these variables, tests for a structural break at the time of NAFTA find an effect which is either insignificant or else quite small and in some models negative. Possible explanations for this surprising result are discussed, along with the implications for cost–benefit analysis of free trade agreements.     

北美自由贸易区经济周期协动性的实证研究

自《北关自由贸易协议》签订并实施以来,美国、加拿大、墨西哥三国间的经贸联系日益密切。三国间经贸投资联系的加强必然会作用于三国宏观经济波动的传导,并改变北美自由贸易区内美、加、墨三国经济周期协同的特点。本文首先探讨了《北美自由贸易协议》对美国、加拿大、墨西哥三国间贸易与投资的积极效应,然后对三国在北美自由贸易区成立前后的经济周期协动性变化的特征事实进行了分析,最后考察并检验了《北美自由贸易协议》对三国间经济周期协动性的影响。     

USA,Japan and the Euro Area: Comparing Business‐Cycle Features

There has been much discussion of the differences in macroeconomic performance and prospects between the USA, Japan and the Euro area. Using Markov‐switching techniques, we identify and compare specifically their major business‐cycle features and examine the case for a common business cycle, asymmetries in the national cycles and, using a number of algorithms, date business‐cycle turning points. Despite a high degree of trade and financial linkages, the cyclical features of USA, Japan and the Euro area appear quite distinct. Documenting and comparing such international business‐cycle features can, for example, aid the development of business‐cycle models and inform policy making.     

Trade agreements and international comovements: The case of NAFTA (North American Free Trade Agreement)

Business cycles correlation between Mexico and the US changed from being on a downward sloping path before 1992 to an upward sloping path after that. This paper suggests that the North American Free Trade Agreement could be the explanation. NAFTA generated not only an increase in the volume of trade but also a change in the elasticity of substitution between imports and exports. The paper tests this hypothesis using the neoclassical business cycles model. Although there are still some discrepancies between the theory and data in the degree of correlation, the direction of change in the model corresponds to the one in the data.     

The effect of NAFTA on internal migration in Mexico: a regional economic analysis

Trade facilitates growth in some regions of a country while shrinking others, and therefore to benefit from trade, labour may need to be able to migrate. This mobility is particularly crucial in a developing country with high income inequality like Mexico. We seek to answer the following questions: What characteristics facilitate or hinder that internal migration? Has trade liberalization changed the pattern of internal migration in Mexico? We first predict regional economic growth resulting from changes in Mexico-US tariffs by sector. We find that trade liberalization appears to have largely benefited the manufacturing sector. Next, using a spatial gravity model of migration, we find that while economic growth from trade openness drew workers to urban regions in the northern Border States of Mexico, much of the trade-driven migration occurred before NAFTA. Second, contrary to popular belief, migration from largely rural states appears to have decreased since NAFTA. We also find evidence that migration to the United States increased after NAFTA. Last, we find that income disparity in both the destination and origin region deters migration and that this effect increases after NAFTA. Thus, we see evidence that within-region income disparity can hinder migration, potentially exacerbating income disparity among regions.     

Trade liberalization and the Mexican steel industry

The impact of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) on the competitive positions of Mexican and U.S. steel producers is investigated employing a translog cost function with four inputs (capital, labor, domestic intermediate goods, and foreign intermediate goods) to examine scale characteristics and input substitution in Mexican steel production. Results are consistent with diseconomies of scale at high levels of output and with substitute relationships between all input pairs except labor and domestic intermediate goods. Thus, output growth will likely result in cost reductions for Mexican producers only if the industry reaps significant benefits from substitution of foreign inputs for domestic. Recent increases in Mexico's imports of finished steel have much exceeded those of steel industry inputs, and it therefore does not seem likely that a Mexican cost advantage over steel producers in the United States will soon emerge as a result of economies of scale.     

On business cycle fluctuations in USA macroeconomic time series

This study employs eighteen USA macroeconomic time series variables to investigate possible existence of asymmetries in business cycle fluctuations in the series. Detection of asymmetric fluctuations in economic activity is important for policymakers since effective monetary policy relies on asymmetric business cycle fluctuations in all the series. The asymmetric deviations from the long-term growth trend in each of the series are modeled using regime switching models and artificial neural networks. The results based on nonlinear switching time series models reveal strong evidence of business cycle asymmetries in most of the series. The results based on in-sample approximations from artificial neural networks show statistically significant evidence of asymmetries in all the series. Similar results are obtained when jackknife out-of-sample approximations from artificial neural networks are used. Thus, the study results show statistically significant evidence of asymmetries in all the series which indicates that business cycle fluctuations in the series are asymmetric, thus alike. Therefore, the impact of monetary policy shocks on the output and the other macroeconomic variables can be anticipated using nonlinear models only. The results on asymmetric business cycle fluctuations in real GDP are in line with recent studies but in sharp contrast with Balke and Fomby (1994).     

On the real effects of inflation and inflation uncertainty in Mexico

We estimate an augmented multivariate GARCH-M model of inflation and output growth for Mexico at business cycle frequencies. The main findings are: (1) inflation uncertainty has a negative and significant effect on growth; (2) once the effect of inflation uncertainty is accounted for, lagged inflation does not have a direct negative effect on output growth; (3) However as predicted by Friedman and Ball, higher average inflation raises inflation uncertainty, and the overall net effect of average inflation on output growth in Mexico is negative. That is, average inflation is harmful to Mexican growth due to its impact on inflation uncertainty. (4) The Mexican Presidential election cycle significantly raises inflation uncertainty both during the year of the election and the year following the election which has correspondingly negative effects on output growth.     

Business Cycles, the Exchange Rate, and Demand for Antidumping Protection in Mexico

Antidumping actions in the US and EU are known to be linked to macroeconomic conditions. In part, this is because positive injury findings may be easier to make in a downturn, increasing the chance of success for complainants. We explore the evidence for Mexico, one of the main “new” antidumping regimes. Injury determination is also critical in Mexico’s antidumping policy, as a majority of unsuccessful complaints have been rejected because of negative injury findings rather than negative findings of dumping. Working with data from 1987 to 2000, we provide evidence for a relationship between macroeconomic factors and antidumping complaints, including current account and exchange rate movements, and both local and global general macroeconomic conditions.     

Emigration and wages in source countries: Evidence from Mexico

This paper examines empirically the effect of Mexican emigration to the United States on wages in Mexico using data from the Mexican and US censuses from 1970 to 2000. The main result in the paper is that emigration has a strong and positive effect on Mexican wages. There is also evidence for increasing wage inequality in Mexico due to emigration. Simple welfare calculations based on a labor demand–supply framework suggest that the aggregate welfare loss to Mexico due to emigration is small. However, there is a significant distributional impact between labor and other factors.     

The Scope and Limits of a Public–Private Hybrid: Dispute Settlement under NAFTA Chapter 19

Globalisation is often depicted as having led to an increase in private authority at the expense of that of the state. It is important to correctly specify the scope that private authority has achieved and the capacity of states to push back and limit that authority. This article grounds these theoretical issues in a discussion of the hybrid, public–private dispute settlement mechanism set up in the original Canada–US Free Trade Agreement (CUSTFA), and later extended into Chapter 19 of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). It finds that privatising the enforcement process did make a difference. Trade experts on panels saw things differently to judges and in ways that were more sympathetic to exporters. This favoured Canadian and Mexican interests. However, the arrangement lacked deep roots. It was a late-stage compromise in trade negotiations. This rendered it vulnerable to a US counterattack once panels began to rule in favour of Canadian and Mexican challenges to US trade determinations. The transfer of quasi-judicial authority to a public–private hybrid proved contingent, partly on the hegemonic state's ongoing level of comfort with the arrangement, as well as on a lack of business consensus within the United States.     

Oil price uncertainty and the business cycle: Accounting for the influences of global supply and demand within a VAR GARCH-in-mean framework

ABSTRACT

This article reinvestigates the influence of oil price uncertainty on real economic activity in the United States using a four-variable VAR GARCH-in-mean asymmetric BEKK model. In contrast to previous studies in this area, the analysis focuses on business cycle fluctuations and we control for global supply and demand factors that might affect the real price of oil, its volatility as well as the US economy. We find that – even after accounting for these factors – oil price uncertainty still has a highly significant negative influence on the US business cycle. Our computations show that the effect is economically important during several periods, mostly after a significant variance shift in the mid-1980s. We simultaneously estimate the effect on the global business cycle but find that it is comparatively weak. Finally, significant spillover effects in the GARCH model suggest that oil price volatility is a gauge and channel of transmission of more general macroeconomic shocks and uncertainty. These linkages are particularly strong in case of unexpected bad news.     

中国经济周期波动的典型化事实:一个基于CF滤波的研究

从宏观时间序列经验特征中概括经济周期波动的典型化事实是经济学研究的一项重要课题,也是当前中国经济周期波动研究的欠缺所在.本文采集23个主要宏观经济变量数据,运用新近提出的CF滤波,分解得到它们的周期性成分,并计算这些周期性成分的标准差、自相关系数以及它们之间的时差相关系数.在此基础上,分析了中国经济周期波动的经验特征,总结出中国经济周期波动的典型化事实,并与美国的研究结果加以对比,揭示出中国经济周期波动经验特征和典型化事实的一般性和特殊性.本文的研究进一步验证了Lucas(1977)命题,也有助于为相关理论发展和宏观调控操作提供参照和借鉴.     

Managed trade: The US–Mexico sugar suspension agreements

Under the 1994 North American Free Trade Agreement, Mexican sugar producers were ultimately granted free access to the US sugar market, while all other suppliers, including US refiners, were subject to supply quotas. Following a surge in imports of Mexican sugar, the American Sugar Coalition initiated anti‐dumping and countervailing duty (ADCVD) proceedings against Mexico in early 2014. In December 2014, the ADCVD cases were halted as a result of two suspension agreements negotiated between the US and Mexico. This paper contributes to a small number of empirical studies that have estimated the impact of suspension agreements. We measure the impacts of the ADCVD filings and the suspension agreements on US domestic raw and refined prices, the raw‐to‐refined margin and the quantity and composition of sugar imports from Mexico. Results suggest US raw sugar prices increased by 3¢ per lb. (14%) under ADCVD proceedings, equivalent to an ad valorem tariff between 40% and 50%, while the suspension agreements increased US raw sugar prices by 5¢ (70% tariff equivalent). US refined sugar prices increased by similar amounts under the ADCVD proceedings and the suspension agreements (4.5¢ per lb.). Ultimately, both the ADCVD proceedings and the suspension agreements significantly reduced sugar imports from Mexico. US sugar refiner economic welfare hinges critically on the quantity and composition of raw sugar imports. As such, refiner revenue, following the ADCVD filings and suspension agreements, is estimated to have declined by 16%, relative to a free trade environment.     

Learning,parameter variability,and swings in US macroeconomic dynamics

Recent studies show that the estimated parameters of rational expectations dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models of the business cycle are largely time-varying. This paper shows that assuming adaptive learning (rather than rational expectations) strongly reduces the estimated parameter variability of standard models (by around 75%). Moreover, the reduction in parameter variability induced by adaptive learning is much stronger for the subsets of parameters that control nominal price and wage rigidity and the subset of policy rule parameters (at 98% and 83%, respectively). Furthermore, our estimation results suggest that adaptive learning helps to explain the recent swings in the comovements between real and nominal US macroeconomic variables, but the swing in the relative weight of supply and demand shocks seems to be the most important driving force.     

Pervasive inattentiveness

In this paper we analyze how inattentiveness in capital investment decisions shapes business cycle dynamics in a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model with inattentiveness. We find that the model with pervasive inattentiveness matches several business cycle moments much better than an otherwise identical model without informational frictions in investment. These findings reinforce the need for pervasive stickiness to mimic the inertia found in macroeconomic data.