The role of macroeconomic policy in rebalancing growth

The aftermath of the global financial crisis of 2007–2009 has called the export-led growth model of many Asian economies into question. This paper describes the contribution that macroeconomic policy can make to promote a rebalancing of growth away from dependence on exports to developed economies to a more sustainable pattern of growth centered on domestic and regional demand. This represents a significant departure from the traditional uses of macroeconomic policy to stabilize the economic cycle and achieve stable and low inflation. The evidence suggests that macroeconomic policy can successfully contribute to growth rebalancing. Policy measures not only can affect aggregate demand directly, but can also affect it indirectly via their “microeconomic” impacts on private sector behavior such as the household savings rate. Although in the long-term fiscal policy should be balanced to maintain government debt stability and avoid crowding out of private investment, there may be substantial scope to expand monetary and fiscal policy in the medium-term to offset the deflationary effects of an appreciating currency during periods of current account reversal. Previous experience suggests that most of the needed stimulus can be provided by monetary policy, with only a supplementary role to be played by fiscal policy. Moreover, Asian economies with large current account surpluses tend to have sufficient fiscal space.     

Global rebalancing: Effects on trade and employment

A sustained reduction of global current-account imbalances must include a decline in the share of household consumption in aggregate demand in the United States and the opposite development in China. Accordingly, import demand would decline in the United States and increase in China. Given non-homothetic demand preferences, the resulting change in the income distribution of global import demand affects both the intensity and pattern of other countries’ exports. Simulations suggest that, for the world economy, the net effect of this shift would be a decline in industrial exports, especially from labor-intensive sectors producing consumer durables. A multilaterally coordinated rebalancing that would also include an increase in the share of household consumption in aggregate demand of developed country surplus economies would reduce these adverse effects on trade and employment. Apart from the countries undertaking rebalancing, developing countries in East and South-East Asia face the greatest adjustment pressure from global rebalancing.     

亚洲“四小龙”的崛起

西方国家认为,第二次世界大战后,每个年代都出现经济“奇迹”：50年代出现了西德;60年代出现了日本;70年代相继出现了被誉为亚洲“四小龙”的新加坡、韩国、中国香港和台湾省;到了80年代,印度尼西亚、马来西亚、菲律宾和泰国在经济上又崭露头角,他们以惊人的发展速度,引起了世界关注,名噪于世,被称为亚洲的新“四小龙”,……     

金融危机的区域应对——东亚外汇储备库

在当前全球金融危机的背景下,东亚外汇储备库的筹建和增资一方面有助于进一步增强东亚地区资金救助能力,更重要的是体现了东亚区域加强合作、应对危机的信心和决心。本文研究东亚外汇储备库的缘起、基础和成立过程,对东亚外汇储备库的意义和制度安排等相关问题进行了分析,最后得出中国的对策选择。     

亚洲的新“恐慌”意味着什么？

就在今年2月,新加坡内阁资政李光耀先生还在说,尽管东南亚其它国家陷入了困境,但新加坡的前景仍然很好,并乐观地估计今年新加坡的出口增长率可能达到5％到7％。然而他没想到,几个月后新加坡就随同美国和整个世界经济的严重衰退而陷入了负增长。到了9月,李光耀年初的好心情已一扫而光。他在结束对马来西亚为期4天的访问后对记说,新加坡与日本达成自由贸易协定对于应付入世后的中国所构成的挑战十分重要,他同时还敦促东盟国家效仿新加坡,缔结双边自由贸易协定,以对付中国与日俱僧的影响。     

东亚参与全球经济治理的发展前景

东亚地区已经成为全球经济体系中的重要力量,对维护全球经济秩序稳定和健康发展承担着越来越大的责任。东亚地区的最大两个经济体中国和日本参与全球经济治理的进程充分说明,国家经济实力与全球治理能力和话语权之间并不存在必然的正相关关系,东亚地区对全球经济治理的规范选择及其影响力仍然有限,东亚参与全球经济治理的发展前景仍存在一定的不确定性。     

中亚能源地缘战略格局与多边能源合作

中亚这一能源热点地区的多边能源合作尚处于起步阶段,主要原因是中亚地区的能源地缘国家相互的地缘观点在很大程度上影响了中亚的能源地缘格局,具体表现在中亚-里海地区油气管线走向的博弈。能源地缘国家相互之间在地缘上的认知分歧成为这一地区实现多边能源合作的最大挑战。中亚多边能源合作的前景取决于各参与国为改变相互地缘认知所作出的外交努力。     

A contribution to Norwegian urban history

Abstract

Norwegian historians have for decades concerned themselves with the study of problems pertaining to Norwegian towns in the middle ages, what needs they fulfilled, how extensive were their socio-economic functions.     

South Asia's Integration with the Rest of Asia: a survey

While there can be unforeseen difficulties, developments of the recent past point to the gradual integration of South Asia with the dynamic economies of East and Southeast Asia. Two modes of integration have been taking place: the expansion of existing subregional free trade agreements and ASEAN's initiatives as a bridge between the regional groups of Asian economies. While the present endeavours of these economies are resulting in a shallow form of integration—which may not suddenly turn towards deep integration—onward movement along the same path is certainly possible.     

青年学者对中国旅游研究的贡献

本文回顾1960～1969年间出生的20位青年学者,分析其对中国旅游研究所做出的主要贡献,并对中国旅游学术界未来的发展提出希望。     

美国次级债危机及其对东亚经济的影响与对策

世界美元本位下,美国放纵的经济政策是美国次级债危机产生和对世界经济产生重大影响的深层次原因。东亚经济体为世界美元本位提供了最重要的支撑,而美元本位也放大了次级债危机对东亚经济的影响。加强东亚区域间货币合作是削弱美元本位、应对类似次级债危机的美国资产泡沫破灭对东亚经济冲击的根本之策。     

Export Performance in Africa and Asia's Manufacturing: Evidence from Firm-level Data

Asia's share of manufacturing export to gross domestic productin the 1990s was more than five times that of Sub-Saharan Africa.While explanations abound in the literature as to why Africahas failed, recent empirical work suggests that the reason forAfrica's dismal export performance lies in a low skill-to-landratio, which causes its comparative advantage to lie in primaryexports. This result is derived from a basic 2 x 2 Hecksher–Ohlinmodel. However, the aggregation inherent in the industry ornational level data sets that are used for testing this theoryhides substantial heterogeneity. Input intensity heterogeneityviolates the assumptions of the factor proportions frameworkand casts doubts on the reliability of estimation results. Moreover,measurement error on the skill variable at the aggregate levelcauses biases in Ordinary Least Squares estimation. This paperuses a combined micro- and macro-level data set for investigatingthe determinants of export performance in Asia and Africa'smanufacturing. Tobit estimations find no robust associationbetween skill intensity and export performance in the textileand garment industries in Ghana, Kenya and India. Africa andAsia's significant performance gap might be better explainedby there being poorer institutions in Africa as measured bythe Knack and Keefer (1995) index and Kaufman et al.'s (1999)‘rule of law’ composite index.     

THe dynamics of agricultural contribution to economic growth

More than twenty-five years ago, Simon Kuznets formulated some procedures to measure the contribution of the agricultural sector to economic growth and development. This article provides a view of the experience of various countries at different stages of economic development to examine how they fare individually in terms of Kuznets’s suggestions. A major objective is the exploration of relationships between the levels of income and agricultural product and labor contribution to economic growth. It was found, as Kuznets perceived, that the contribution declines as the level of income rises.     

邓小平对马克思主义经济理论的主要贡献

一、邓小平提出特色社会主义经济理论的理论依据社会发展阶段问题,是确定经济社会发展路线、方针、政策的基本前提,是全局性的问题。正确地认识我国的国情有一个曲折过程。邓小平以实事求是的科学态度和无产阶级革命家的胆略,对中国社会发展阶段问题作了马克思主义的最新回答。