Coalition Stability in Public Goods Provision: Testing an Optimal Allocation Rule

We test the canonical model of international environmental agreements (IEAs) in a laboratory setting with asymmetric agents. IEA participation represents coalition formation and public good provision where there are gains to cooperation, but an incentive to free-ride. We test four competing methods of dividing the coalition’s worth: a recently proposed optimal rule which accounts for subjects’ payoffs as a single free-rider, the Shapley value, the Nash bargaining solution, and an equal split. Each treatment generates the theoretically predicted coalition size more often than not. The shares of the potential gains to cooperation achieved by each rule are: 51, 36, 40 and 13%, respectively. These results highlight the importance of using an optimal rule to improve IEAs, and more broadly for voluntary public good provision.     

Debt Crises and Risk‐Sharing: The Role of Markets versus Sovereigns

Using a variance decomposition of shocks to gross domestic product (GDP), we quantify the role of international factor income, international transfers, and saving in achieving risk‐sharing during the recent European crisis. We focus on the subperiods 1990–2007, 2008–2009, and 2010 and consider separately the European countries hit by the sovereign debt crisis in 2010. We decompose risk‐sharing from saving into contributions from government and private saving, and show that fiscal austerity programs played an important role in hindering risk‐sharing during the sovereign debt crisis.     

Risk‐Off Episodes and Swiss Franc Appreciation: The Role of Capital Flows

During episodes of increased global risk aversion, or risk‐off episodes, safe haven currencies such as the Swiss franc tend to appreciate. The immediate impact of a risk‐off shock is an increase in net private inflows to Switzerland, mostly driven by a reduction in Swiss residents’ net purchases of foreign debt securities and reduced foreign exposure by Swiss banks. Given that the bulk of capital movements related to risk‐off episodes is driven by decisions of Swiss residents, capital flow management policies that discriminate based on the residency of the investor (capital controls) are not likely to be effective at reducing the impact of risk‐off episodes. However, prudential policies that limit leveraging or foreign exposure by Swiss banks may diminish the volatility of capital flows during risk‐off episodes.     

Round‐Robin Tournaments with a Dominant Player

We analyze the subgame perfect equilibrium of the round‐robin tournament with one strong (dominant) and two weak players, and we compare this tournament and the one‐stage contest with respect to the players' expected payoffs, expected total effort, and their probabilities of winning. We find that if the contest designer's goal is to maximize the players' expected total effort, then – if the asymmetry between the players is relatively low – the one‐stage contest should be used. However, if the asymmetry is relatively high, then the round‐robin tournament should be used.     

The Allocation of German Aid: Self‐interest and Government Ideology

We investigate the importance of geo‐strategic and commercial motives for the allocation of German aid to 138 countries over the 1973–2010 period. We find that geo‐strategic and commercial motives matter. When we relate them to the political color of the German government in general, and the Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development and the Federal Foreign Office in particular, we find their importance to be at least as strong under the socialist leadership. Socialist leadership decreases the amount of aid commitments, controlled for other factors.     

The Relationship between Australian Mutual Fund Fees and Risk‐Adjusted Performance in Differing Economic Conditions

We find that Australian mutual fund investors should avoid high fee funds as these funds generate relatively low after‐fee risk‐adjusted returns both unconditionally and in weak economic conditions. This result is different from some of the previous findings which showed that US mutual funds with relatively high expense ratios may generate relatively higher risk‐adjusted returns during recessions relative to non‐recessions, although their unconditional alphas may be negative. We find some support for the Glode hypothesis in surviving Australian wholesale funds. High‐fee surviving Australian wholesale funds perform relatively strongly in both weak economic conditions and unconditionally. High‐fee funds in other types of Australian mutual funds generally do not perform strongly either in weak economic conditions or unconditionally. Amongst low‐fee funds, we commonly find that those that perform well unconditionally and well in weak economic conditions do charge more than those that perform well unconditionally and poorly in weak economic conditions. Amongst low‐fee funds, it is often true that those that perform poorly unconditionally but well in weak economic conditions can charge more than those that perform poorly unconditionally and poorly in weak economic conditions.     

Pro‐girl Bias in Intra‐household Allocation in the Rural Philippines: Revisiting the “Adult Goods” Approach

This paper detects pro‐girl (age 5–15) bias in intra‐household allocation of consumption budget in the rural Philippines using Deaton's “adult goods” method. Based on additional checks (including those for endogeneity), the results appear to be robust. The paper also finds that a larger share of girls among household members is positively associated with a larger budget share on transportation, suggesting that parents pay more for girls' transportation, possibly because of safety concerns. The results also suggest that, despite some earlier results in the literature, the adult goods method is capable of detecting gender bias, although alcohol and tobacco may not be suitable for detecting gender bias.     

Need,Merit and Politics in Multilateral Aid Allocation: A District‐level Analysis of World Bank Projects in India

We assess the targeting of foreign aid within recipient countries by employing Poisson estimations on the determinants of the World Bank's allocation of project aid at the district level in India. The evidence of needs‐based location choices is very weak as long as the poverty orientation of overall commitments is taken as the yardstick. It is only for some sectors that we find stronger indications of needs‐based allocation when combining sector‐specific commitments with corresponding measures of need. The evidence for a merit‐based allocation of World Bank aid is even weaker. We typically do not find evidence that aid allocation is affected by political patronage at the state or district level. However, the World Bank prefers districts where foreign direct investors may benefit from projects related to infrastructure.     

New Evidence on Intra‐Household Allocation of Resources in Japanese Households

This paper examines intra‐household allocation of resources to gain insight into family relationships and gender bias in Japanese households. We take the Engel curve approach to examine how adult consumption is affected by the presence of a child, either a boy or a girl, in the family. Empowered by diary‐based high quality spending data from the Family Income and Expenditure Survey, our empirical results show that adult consumption is significantly reduced in households with children; furthermore, gender bias is not observed in total adult expenditures, while responses of adult clothing expenses to the presence of a child are significantly different between a boy and a girl: spending on a father's clothing is reduced when the child is a school‐aged daughter, while spending on a mother's clothing decreases when a school‐aged son is in the home. Our analysis also shows that after the early 2000s girls receive a larger share of spending for children's clothing as well as for high school education than boys.     

STOCK‐BOND CO‐MOVEMENTS AND FLIGHT‐TO‐QUALITY IN G7 COUNTRIES: A TIME‐FREQUENCY ANALYSIS

This paper examines co‐movement between stock returns and changes in 10‐year government bond yields as well as flight‐to‐quality behaviour in G7 countries. We conduct the wavelet squared coherence analysis to explore the dynamics in both time and frequency domain. Our results provide evidence of positive co‐movements, which vary over time and across investment horizon. The higher co‐movement is found to be more concentrated in the lower frequency bands. We further analyse the dynamic nature of the scale‐dependent wavelet correlations and find that the correlations are highly volatile and significantly increase across different time scales during the episodes of equity market turbulence. The increase in correlations reflects flights from stocks to safer bond investments as a result of dramatic changes in investor sentiment and risk aversion at times of market stress.     

CROSS‐BORDER M&As AND FIRM VALUE: A COMPARISON OF CHINA‐ AND US‐JAPAN M&As

We examine the effect of M&As conducted by U.S. and Chinese bidders (US‐Japan and China‐Japan M&As) on the stock prices of Japanese targets. We find that both types of M&As tend to increase the stock prices of the Japanese targets and that market reactions are significantly greater for US‐Japan M&As than for China‐Japan M&As. Additionally, capital participation produces greater market reactions to China‐Japan M&As than other structures, while acquisition produces this effect in US‐Japan M&As. Our results are consistent with previous research indicating that market reactions increase for bidders operating in a developed country with high‐quality institutions and corporate governance. (JEL G32, G34)     

TURNPIKE PROPERTIES OF A MONEY‐IN‐THE‐UTILITY‐FUNCTION MODEL*

This study establishes the global stability of a long‐run stationary state in a money‐in‐the‐utility‐function model. The major finding is that the constant money supply rule results in a stable allocation and price system if consumers discount their future utilities sufficiently weakly. Nominal and real interest rates will be in the neighbourhood of the inverse of the consumers’ discount factor β^‐1.     

OUTPUT–EMPLOYMENT RELATIONSHIP ACROSS SECTORS: A LONG‐ VERSUS SHORT‐RUN PERSPECTIVE

This paper investigates the nature of the output–employment relationship by using the Turkish quarterly data for the period 1988–2008. Even if we fail to find a long‐run relationship between aggregate output and total employment, there are long‐run relationships for the aggregate output with non‐agricultural employment and sectoral employment levels for seven of nine sectors that we consider. However, a further investigation for the output and employment relationship within a short‐run perspective does not reveal statistically significant relationships for either total employment or non‐agriculture employment, or eight of the nine sectors that we consider. Although there are various long‐run relationships between output and employment, the short‐run links between demand and employment are weak. The various implications of this for the economy and the labour market are discussed. As a result, maintaining high levels of output in the long‐run creating demand is essential for employment generation.     

Competition Among Italian Junior‐Secondary Schools: A Variance‐Decomposition Empirical Analysis

The public economic theory emphasizes the potential role of competition in fostering the performance of educational systems. The rationale for pro‐competitive policies in education (i.e. vouchers, charter schools, tax deductions) is that schools can improve their quality responding to ‘pressures’ from nearby competitors. The objective of this paper is to analyze the potential relationship between (i) competition among schools and (ii) students’ achievement in Italy. While previous studies used OECD‐Pisa data for this purpose, here a new dataset about Italian schools has been employed: about 19,000 students in 150 schools constitute the sample. The reference framework is the idea that the presence of more schools in a certain area, and/or the proportion of students enrolled in private schools, should raise the performance of schools operating in that area through a ‘competition effect’. A multilevel strategy, which allows separating between‐areas variance in achievement scores, is employed. The findings support the view that competition has an impact, albeit little, on students’ achievement, and such competitive pressure is due to the number of schools, no matter if public or private.     

Deprivation and the Dimensionality of Welfare: A Variable‐Selection Cluster‐Analysis Approach

We approach the problems of measuring the dimensionality of welfare and that of identifying the multidimensionally poor, by first finding the poor using the original space of attributes, and then reducing the welfare space. The starting point is the notion that the “poor” constitutes a group of individuals that are essentially different from the “non‐poor” in a truly multidimensional framework. Once this group has been identified through a clustering procedure, we propose reducing the dimension of the original welfare space using recent blinding methods for variable selection. We implement our approach to the case of Latin America based on the Gallup World Poll, which contains ample information on many dimensions of welfare.     

Old‐Age Income Insecurity in Singapore: A Problem of Non‐Inclusive Development

With a growing old‐age population, ensuring income security for the elderly is becoming an increasingly important element of public policy worldwide. The World Bank report proposed a three‐tier system to avert old‐age crisis, which was extended into a five‐tier system by Holzmann et al. Our analysis of Singapore's old‐age income security system in light of these two systems shows that it lacks the basic zero and first pillars of protection against old‐age hardships. We show that a budget allocation of less than half a percent of national gross domestic product (GDP) can ensure that no elderly citizen suffers from poverty in Singapore. As Singapore occupies the status of a developed country, a government‐financed pension system that is adequate, affordable, sustainable and robust is long overdue.     

汽车牌照配置的混合机制设计——对我国车牌配置机制改进的探讨

文章在分析中国各城市车牌配置机制所存在缺陷的基础上,基于考虑预算约束条件的多物品拍卖理论模型,提出了能够涵盖中国现行主要车牌配置机制的一类包含统一保留价格的序贯拍卖—摇号混合机制.文章进一步讨论了车牌配置机制中引人关注的公平性含义,并使用数值模拟的实验方法从效率、收入和公平性三个维度对包含统一保留价格的序贯拍卖—摇号混合机制了进行评价.最后,文章结合上海市车牌配置机制改革的现实背景,考虑了将二手车牌纳入拍卖平台的情形,对上述混合机制做了进一步扩展.文章的研究结论为汽车牌照配置机制的改进和选择提供了理论基础和政策参考.