Gains from Trade in a Differential Game Model of Asymmetric Oligopoly

This paper revisits a classical topic of trade gains in a differential game model of oligopoly in which Home and Foreign firms differ in the number and cost. After deriving the feedback Nash equilibrium, we provide examples to consider how the difference in the number of firms or costs affects gainfulness of trade. We prove that feedback strategies can result in implications for trade gains which are sharply different from the open-loop case.     

国际贸易中的两国关税博弈--兼论加入WTO后我国的关税对策

本文主要利用博弈论中纳什均衡的原理讨论在完全信息情况下，两国在国际贸易中的关税对策问题，并给出了关税对策的最优解。根据最优解讨论了关税增减对两国关税收入的影响，通过案例分析说明了我国加入WTO以后应采取的关税对策。     

外国技术授权策略与本国关税政策之探讨

本文将以一个拥有技术优势，且将其产品输往本国寡占市场中的外国厂商为对象，探讨其对本国厂商的最适技术授权策略，以及该策略是否受关税保护贸易政策之影响。在本文的研究结论中，我们可以发现下列三点：（1）在自由贸易条件下，当外国企业可授权国内二家厂商时，其最适授权策略，会选择同时授权于国内二家技术劣势厂商。当外国厂商仅可授权国内一家技术劣势厂商时，若市场规模相对较小，国外技术优势厂商之最适单位权利金订定为存在内部解，且会受市场规模的影响，市场规模值愈大，权利金愈高。当市场规模相对较大时，则国外技术优势厂商之最适单位权利金恰等于其技术创新所能节省的成本幅度。（2）在关税政策条件下，国外技术优势厂商可同时授权国内二家厂商时，其授权策略不受关税政策影响。在可授权国内一家技术劣势厂商时，若市场规模相对较大，其授权策略不受关税政策影响。若市场规模相对较小，在自由贸易条件下外国厂商的授权权利金将高于采取关税政策条件下的水准。（3）在本国政府的最适关税政策下，不论是当外国厂商可授权本国二家厂商之Nash均衡或可授权本国一家厂商之Nash均衡，皆有助于本国福利水准的提升。     

Transboundary Pollution in a Dynamic Game Model

We consider a dynamic game model in which N countries produce a single product that is not traded. Production results in emissions that accumulate a stock of pollution in each country. Households in each country derive utility from consuming the product but face costs depending on the level of the country-specific stock of pollution as well as the pollution stocks of the other countries. We distinguish three different cost scenarios. For all three, we show the existence of a Markov perfect equilibrium (MPE) and derive the collusive outcome. The MPEs are associated with the case where countries fail to coordinate their policies, while the collusive solutions correspond to the coordinated policy.
JEL Classification No.: C73.     

Endogenous Timing in a Strategic Trade Policy Game: A Two-Country Oligopoly Model with Multiple Firms

This paper examines strategic trade policy games where the number of firms in the importing and exporting countries differs and all firms play as Cournot oligopolies. Under the assumption of linear demand and constant marginal cost, we show that, if the number of firms in the exporting country exceeds that in the importing country by more than three, the government of the exporting country chooses to move as a leader, imposing an export tax on firms. The government of the importing country then becomes a follower and imposes an import tariff. This lies contrary to the previous study, which assumed that there is only one firm in each country.     

International Duopoly, Tariff Policy and the Superiority of Free Trade

This paper addresses the effectiveness of tariff policy in the long-run production framework in which decisions must be made about plant size and the level of output to be produced by foreign duopolists competing with each other in the importing country's market. We consider two types of tariff regime, discriminatory and uniform, and show that the importing country's welfare is unambiguously higher in the uniform tariff case. We consider free trade in the same production framework and show that, as the long-run capacity decision becomes increasingly relevant relative to the short-run quantity decision, free trade dominates tariffs in welfare rankings.
JEL Classification Number: F1.     

差异伯川德模型下战略性贸易政策的实验研究

采用经济学实验的方法,本科生作为被试,货币作为激励手段,研究Eaton和Grossman（1986）提出的差异伯川德竞争方式下一国政府的最佳贸易政策理论。实验设计时考虑实验参与者间交互作用的特性以及被试对＂政策＂与＂征税＂的各种可能的反应,设计了四个设置的实验,对实验数据从被试的决策动机、被试决策时的考虑因素进行分析,运用数学及统计软件进行分析。实验结果显示政府不愿干预国际贸易,不会对本国产品征收出口税;同时分析了本实验研究的现实意义。     

环境保护政策选择的演化博弈分析

从演化博弈的角度出发,针对政府不同的环境政策,即政府减污经济激励政策和政府控制命令政策,建立了排污企业群体之间的博弈模型以及企业与政府、企业与环保部门博弈的复制动态方程,并对动态方程作了分析,得出了企业群体和政府、监管部门博弈的演化稳定策略。通过政府职能,促进企业排污达标的力度,从而体现出政府对市场进行干预和调控的必要性。     

Trade and Indeterminacy in a Dynamic General Equilibrium Model

This paper introduces sector-specific externalities in the Heckscher-Ohlin two-country dynamic general equilibrium model to show that indeterminacy of the equilibrium path in the world market can occur. Under certain conditions in terms of factor intensities, there are multiple equilibrium paths from the same initial distribution of capital in the world market, and the distribution of capital in the limit differs among equilibrium paths. One equilibrium path converges to a long-run equilibrium in which the international ranking of factor endowment ratios differs from the initial ranking; another equilibrium path maintains the initial ranking and converges to another long-run equilibrium. Since the path realized is indeterminate, so is the long-run trade pattern. Therefore, the Long-Run Heckscher-Ohlin prediction is vulnerable to the introduction of externality. Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: E13, E32, F11, F43.     

Strategic Trade and Industrial Policy Towards Dynamic Oligopolies

We characterise optimal trade and industrial policy in dynamic oligopolistic markets. If governments can commit to future policies, optimal first-period intervention should diverge from the profit-shifting benchmark to an extent which exactly offsets the strategic behaviour implied by Fudenberg and Tirole's 'animal spirits' taxonomy of business strategies. Without government commitment, there is an additional basis for intervention, whose sign depends on the strategic substitutability between future policy and current actions. We consider a variety of applications (to R&D spillovers, consumer switching costs, etc.) and also extensions to constrained second-best policies.     

The Nonequivalence of Tariffs and Quotas in a Dynamic Trade Model

The paper provides a novel (and old) argument for the nonequivalence of tariffs and quotas, based on the famous paper by Hotelling published in 1931. Unlike tariffs, quantitative restrictions are inherently dynamic. As long as the foreign exporter earns positive marginal profits, he raises their present value by frontloading sales. As a result, unlike a tariff, equilibrium with a quota exhibits quantity and price dispersion over time. The dispersion may be significant even with small discount rates.     

业务运营监管策略互动的动态博弈模型分析和政策建议

对金融企业业务运行的监管是规范金融市场、控制金融风险的一个主要的途径。随着市场化金融监管程度的不断提高,我们有必要研究金融监管机构策略选择和金融企业之间策略选择的相互影响关系,特别是金融企业形成良好的业务运营预期所需要的约束条件。本文试图通过动态博弈模型的建立、分析来研究上述问题,并对金融监管改革时期的策略取向提出建议。     

Tariff Liberalization and Trade Integration of Emerging Countries

This paper investigates how tariff liberalization has affected exporting at the product‐destination level in emerging countries. We use a highly disaggregated (six‐digit level of the harmonized system—HS—classification) bilateral measure of market access to compare tariffs applied in 1996 and 2006, which includes the timing of the Uruguay Round and episodes of bilateral liberalization. Our econometric estimations consider impacts of tariff cuts on three components of the trade margins: extensive margin of entry (new trade relationships at the product‐destination level), extensive margin of exit (disappearance of existing relationships) and intensive margin of trade (deepening existing relationships). Our main estimates indicate that a reduction of bilateral applied tariffs of 1 percentage point increases the extensive margin of entry by 0.1% and the intensive one by 2.09%, while it reduces the extensive margin of exit by 0.25%.     

US Ethanol Trade Policy: Pollution Reduction or Domestic Protection

To mitigate dependence on fossil fuel and reduce pollution, the US government has undertaken several policies—an import tariff, tax credit, and mandate—to augment domestic ethanol production and increase ethanol in the fuel supply. This study uses a general equilibrium model to analyze the effects of the US ethanol import tariff on welfare by internalizing the externality and incorporating US fuel and ethanol policies and to determine the optimal tariff. The results show that because of the environmental benefits of imported ethanol, the adverse effects of domestic ethanol on the environment, the need for the imported ethanol to boost the blended gasoline production, and the economy‐wide interactions of various markets, the optimal trade policy may call for subsidizing rather than taxing ethanol imports.     

Pollution Control in Open Economies: Implications of Within-period Interactions for Dynamic Game Equilibrium

This paper examines a two-country, dynamic game model of pollution control in the presence of economic interactions between countries within a period, as well as the environmental interaction between periods (i.e., a change in the stock of global pollution). These economic interactions emerge because of changes in the terms of trade of polluting goods or the market share of domestic polluting industries. It is shown that if within-period externalities exist, a noncooperative equilibrium may result in a smaller stock of global pollution in the steady state than does international cooperation. Moreover, the properties of equilibrium paths depend on the direction and size of such externalities. In addition, trigger strategy equilibria that achieve the outcome of the collusive solution are examined.     

政府主导下的土地流转路径模型——一个动态博弈的视角

本文通过建立一个政府土地政策制定与农民土地流转决策的两期动态博弈模型,先后探讨了在平均分配土地的配给规则以及最大化农业劳动人口的土地配给规则下的土地流转路径,并比较了两种配给规则下土地流转速率的大小,得出土地流转的根本原因是农民劳动能力不同以及政府行为前后不一致,从而揭示了影响土地流转速率的内在机制:农民的劳动能力存在差异,为土地流转提供了可能,政府因此可以制定使农民激励相容的土地政策,推动土地整合集中到劳动能力高的农民手中;非农工资水平、农业补贴等外部因素对土地流转的影响主要体现在土地收敛速率上,并不改变土地流转的方向和最终均衡结果。在此引入劳动力市场冲击之后,本文提出了以产量甄别农民劳动能力的方法,改进政府进行农业定向采购的方式。     

The Welfare Effects of Differential Tariff Rates

This paper considers a two-country, three-good economy in which one country imposes tariffs on import goods at a uniform rate, while the other country engages in free trade. In such an economy, we examine the welfare effects of changing tariff rates toward differential tariffs from uniform tariffs.     

A Stackelberg Game Model of Trade in Renewable Resources with Competitive Sellers*

We model international trade in renewable resources between a single buyer and competitive sellers as a Stackelberg differential game. The buyer uses unit and ad valorem tariffs to indirectly encourage conservation of the renewable resource under study. First, we show that the efficacy of these trade policy instruments in promoting conservation depends fundamentally on whether harvesting costs are stock dependent or independent. When harvesting costs are stock independent, the optimal open‐loop tariffs are dynamically consistent. In contrast, when harvesting costs are stock dependent, the optimal open‐loop tariffs are dynamically inconsistent. Secondly, we point out that whether the terminal value of the resource stock is higher with the stock independent or the stock dependent cost function cannot be resolved unambiguously. Thirdly, we show that it does not make sense for the buyer to use both tariffs simultaneously. Finally, we discuss the implications of these and other findings for renewable resource conservation in general.     

内部货币与我国最优关税政策研究

本文将内部货币引入一个包含两国两商品的纯交换经济,在考虑贸易关税的情形下,将此拓展成一个Nash关税博弈模型。我们用2005年中国与世界其他国家(ROW)的产出和双边贸易数据对该贸易模型进行数值分析,考察一般经济均衡条件下内部货币的引入对我国与ROW最优关税政策的影响。研究表明:(1)内部货币对贸易双方关税博弈的Nash均衡有显著影响,即相对于无内部货币的情形,内部货币的存在将削弱我国在关税博弈中的关税报复力量。(2)中国在2005年的实际关税接近于不考虑ROW关税报复时的最优关税水平及Nash均衡关税,而ROW当时的实际关税却远低于其最优关税和Nash均衡关税水平,这说明我国在2005年所采取的关税政策合乎本国利益。     

A Two-Country Dynamic Trade Model with Multiple Groups

The paper addresses a dynamic interdependence between economic growth and trade patterns within a multi-group framework. The labor force of each country is classified into two groups, according to human capital and preferences. We show how difference in preferences and human capital of the four groups affect trade patterns and the world economy. [F11, 041].