POLICY UNCERTAINTY,ELECTORAL SECURITIES,AND REDISTRIBUTION*

This article investigates how uncertainty about the adoption of a redistribution policy affects political support for redistribution when individuals can trade policy‐contingent securities in the stock market. In equilibrium the support for redistribution is smaller than where no “policy‐insurance market” is available. This implies that in economies with well‐developed financial markets redistribution decreases with the level of participation in these markets and with income inequality. Furthermore, the existence of a policy‐insurance market may lead to a less equal distribution of income than where no insurance is available even if a majority of individuals are redistributing resources through private transfers.     

Strategic Complementarity in Direct Investments

The paper investigates a three‐country duopoly model. Two developed countries have large markets and one developing country has a cost advantage. The author finds that strategic complementarity in location choice yields multiple equilibria. One is a cost‐oriented agglomeration of firms in the developing country and the other is a market‐oriented equilibrium where each firm locates in its developed home country. Also, private incentives for the cost‐oriented location are excessive (resp. insufficient) from the viewpoint of world welfare if firms choose their locations non‐cooperatively (resp. cooperatively).     

Mena Stock Markets Integration: Pre and Post Global Financial Crisis

This paper examines the short‐ and long‐run linkages in pre and post global financial crisis among Middle East and North Africa (MENA) stock markets, between MENA and Chinese stock markets and also between MENA and developed (United States and United Kingdom) stock markets. Results indicate that both long‐run co‐integration relationships and short‐run causal linkages among MENA stock markets increased in post‐crisis than that in pre‐crisis sub‐period. The degree of integration between MENA and Chinese stock markets increased in post‐crisis than pre‐crisis. We also find that the degree of integration between MENA and developed (United States and United Kingdom) stock markets increased in post‐crisis than that in pre‐crisis. The presence of increased linkages among MENA markets, and between MENA and Chinese stock markets and also between MENA and developed (United States and United Kingdom) markets has important implications for portfolio investors and policy makers.     

Strategic Privatization in Developing Countries

Privatization of state‐owned enterprises may have important welfare implications, in particular in less developed economies where markets are small and domestic firms are typically relatively weak, both technologically and financially. In these environments, a high‐tech foreign investor acquiring the state‐owned assets may end up dominating the local market, thereby harming local consumer and producer interests. A foreign investor, however, is likely to be both willing and able to offer a higher bid for the assets than local investors. This paper addresses the trade‐off for local governments between privatization revenues and foreign market power. The authors find that there may be an incentive to privatize “strategically” by selling the state‐owned firm to a local (less advanced) investor at a lower price in order to achieve a more competitive post‐privatization market structure.     

THE ROLE OF HOUSE PRICES IN THE MONETARY TRANSMISSION MECHANISM ACROSS EUROPEAN COUNTRIES

This paper provides a discussion of the ‘housing market’ channels of the monetary transmission mechanism and offers some evidence of institutional differences in the European housing and mortgage markets. Using a number of Vector Autoregressive models, estimated individually for nine European countries over the pre‐EMU period, we find that house prices are significantly affected by interest rate shocks. The relative role of these interest‐rate‐induced fluctuations in house prices for private consumption is then investigated. We show that house prices may enhance the effects of interest rate shocks on consumer spending in those economies where housing and mortgage markets are relatively more developed and competitive.     

Global Investment Environment of the Post‐Quantitative Easing World: The ‘new‐old’ and ‘new‐new’ Normal

Global markets since late 2007 are not ‘normal’, where normal means market conditions we would expect to observe going forward in the absence of any new economic shocks. Financial markets have been dominated by extraordinary central bank policies that were created to deal with challenging market conditions reflecting heightened risk aversion and illiquidity. Markets in the future will have some characteristics that look more like the market conditions observed in the pre‐crisis period, which I call the ‘new‐old normal’ and other conditions that differ from the past, which I call the ‘new‐new normal’. I first review what happened during the financial crisis in terms of developments in three asset classes, equities, fixed income and currencies, to place the forward‐looking view in proper context. Then the transition period from the quantitative easing (QE) era of exceptional monetary policy to post‐QE markets is discussed. Post‐transition, we will see some features of the post‐QE world that will resemble pre‐crisis market conditions, the ‘new‐old normal’ with higher policy interest rates, wider cross‐country interest differentials, lower cross‐asset return correlations and a resurgence of the importance of cross‐country differences in fundamentals in international investing. However, some features of the post‐QE investment environment will be unlike anything observed in the past: the ‘new‐new normal’ with reduced liquidity and more days of exceptionally large volatility and asset price moves due to regulatory effects resulting in a reduced ability of market‐makers to provide inventory buffers for counterparties and electronic trading venues that shut down trading in high volatility periods; low inflation; flatter yield curves; and emerging markets providing less opportunity for diversification gains as they converge to developed financial market characteristics.     

Third‐degree price discrimination in the presence of congestion externality

This paper analyzes third‐degree price discrimination of a monopoly airline in the presence of congestion externality when all markets are served. The model features the business‐passenger and leisure‐passenger markets where business passengers exhibit a higher time valuation, and a less price‐elastic demand, than leisure passengers. Our main result is the identification of the time‐valuation effect of price discrimination, which can work in the opposite direction as the well‐known output effect on welfare. This time‐valuation effect clearly explains why discriminating prices can improve welfare even when this is associated with a reduction in aggregate output.     

Impacts of Institutional Intervention on Price Transmissions: The Case of the Ethiopian Commodity Exchange

In the aftermath of the market liberalization reforms, interventions in developing countries shifted toward building institutions. One of such interventions is the introduction of commodity exchanges. The theoretical justification is that commoditization reduces the high transaction costs associated with the information and enforcement problems characterizing agricultural markets of these countries. However it is not known whether these potential gains are transmitted to the various markets along a value chain. By taking the Ethiopian Commodity Exchange (ECX) as a case, this paper examines the impacts of the introduction of the commodity exchange in transmitting price signals along the coffee value chain (world‐export‐auction‐producer prices). We found that both the speed and symmetry of transmission remains weak even after the launch of ECX. At each level, the market chain was found to favor buyers. This implies that not only the country's gains from export are sub‐optimal, the cumulative burden is on the millions of smallholder farmers who are located at the bottom of the chain. In a context where local agricultural markets remain traditional and export markets barely competitive, the introduction of the commodity exchange will have limited impacts in improving the performance of markets in transmitting price signals. Other policy measures to further liberalize both local and export markets are required.     

The Second Welfare Theorem in Economies with Non‐Walrasian Markets

The standard version of the second welfare theorem assumes that market operations produce Walrasian outcomes. Therefore, if there are individuals who can manipulate prices, the conclusion of the second welfare theorem is questionable. In this paper, we address the decentralization of a Pareto‐optimal allocation, when markets are non‐Walrasian. Our objective in this paper is to develop a game which can implement Pareto‐optimal allocations as Nash equilibria of strategic exchange in markets. In this way, we develop a version of the second welfare theorem for economies where markets are strategic.     

Product Choice and Market Competition: The Case of Multiproduct Electronic Plants in Taiwan*

We examine the strategies of multiproduct plants in the Taiwanese electronics sector by introducing two new measures of product dissimilarity to capture the technological gaps of product pairs within the plant. The plant‐level index is used to analyze product mix decisions of plants. We find that plants whose products have large technological gaps are more likely to give up product lines. The product‐level index is used to show that, with increased competition, multiproduct plants exit markets where production technologies are farthest away from their core products and they also perform better than plants that continue to produce a wider range of products.     

An Incomplete Markets Explanation of the Uncovered Interest Rate Parity Puzzle

A large literature attributes failure of uncovered interest rate parity (UIP) to the existence of a time‐varying risk premium. This paper presents a mechanism in a simple two‐country two‐good endowment economy with incomplete markets that generates sizeable deviations from UIP. In a parameterization where international wealth effects are important, liquidity constraints on an internationally traded bond and agents’ strong resulting precautionary motives successfully generates a time‐varying risk premium: countries that have accumulated large outstanding external positions have, being closer to the constraints, stronger precautionary motives and their asset carries a risk premium.     

Foreign News and Spillovers in Emerging European Stock Markets

We analyze foreign news and spillovers in the emerging EU stock markets (the Czech Republic, Hungary, and Poland). We employ high‐frequency five‐minute intraday data on stock market index returns and four classes of EU and US macroeconomic announcements during 2004–07. We account for the difference of each announcement from its market expectation and we jointly model the volatility of the returns accounting for intraday movements and day‐of‐the‐week effects. Our findings show that intraday interactions on the new EU markets are strongly determined by mature stock markets as well as the macroeconomic news originating thereby. We show that strong contemporaneous links across markets are present even after controlling for macroeconomic announcements. Finally, in terms of specific announcements, we are able to show the exact sources of macro news spillovers from the developed foreign markets to the three new EU markets under research.     

The emergence of convergent price clusters in China

This paper reports new evidence on the existence of both large and small price divergent clusters for China's energy markets, 2000–2009. The largest convergent price clusters suggest that the coal and gasoline markets are well integrated, however, small convergent price clusters suggest that electricity and diesel markets are proving harder to integrate. The paper argues that the traditional approach to price convergence analysis should be applied with caution, especially in a transitional economy such as China where questions to be asked should relate to the ‘degree of market‐orientation’ and not simply whether it is a market‐based economy or not.     

Heterogeneous Mortgage Markets: Implications for Business Cycles and Welfare in the EMU

This paper evaluates business cycle effects of asymmetric cross‐country mortgage market developments in a monetary union. By employing a two‐country New Keynesian DSGE model with collateral constraints tied to housing values, we show that a change in institutional characteristics of mortgage markets, such as the loan‐to‐value (LTV) ratio, is an important driver of asymmetric developments in housing markets and economic activity. Our analysis suggests that the home country where credit standards are lax booms, while the rest of European Monetary Union faces a negative output gap. Overall welfare is lower if LTV ratios are higher.     

Domestic and Foreign Price/Marginal-cost Margins: an Application to Spanish Manufacturing Firms

The authors investigate the differences in margins of export and domestic markets for Spanish manufacturing firms in the period 1990 to 1997. They estimate jointly a multiproduct cost function, a variable factor share equation, and two price/marginal‐cost margin equations. The results indicate that the marginal cost of production sold in export markets is slightly greater than in domestic markets. At the same time, the price/marginal‐cost margins in export markets are smaller than in domestic markets. There is also strong evidence that margins are procyclical in domestic markets, but this evidence is less clear in foreign markets.     

On the Coexistence of Banks and Markets*

We examine the coexistence of banks and financial markets by studying a credit market where the qualities of investment projects are not observable and the investment decisions of entrepreneurs are not contractible. Standard banks can alleviate moral‐hazard problems, while financial markets operated by investment banks can alleviate adverse‐selection problems. In competition, standard banks are forced to increase repayments, since financial markets can attract the highest‐quality borrowers. This, in turn, increases the share of shirkers and may make lending unprofitable for standard banks. The coexistence of financial markets and standard banks is socially inefficient. The same inefficiency may occur with the entrance of sophisticated banks, operating with a combination of rating and ongoing monitoring technologies.     

Wage Discrimination in India's Informal Labor Markets: Exploring the Impact of Caste and Gender

Although there has been considerable interest in wage discrimination in India, available studies have largely dealt with formal rather than informal markets that are of little relevance for the poorest people. Focusing on India's informal labor markets leads to three findings of interest. First, gender wage discrimination is larger in informal than in formal labor markets, resulting in losses that are larger than receipts from one of the country's most important safety‐net programs. Second, economic growth will not make gender discrimination in wage labor markets disappear. Finally, contrary to what is found for gender, the hypothesis of no significant wage discrimination based on caste cannot be rejected.     

CHOOSY SEARCH AND THE MISMATCH OF TALENTS*

This article proposes a multi‐sector matching model where workers have (symmetric) sector‐specific skills and the search market is segmented by sector. Workers choose the range of markets they are willing to participate in. I identify a composition externality: Workers do not take into account the impact of their choice on sector‐specific mean productivity among the pools of job‐seekers. Consequently, workers prospect too many market segments, and there is room for public policy even when the so‐called Hosios condition holds.     

Strategic Product Line Choice under Asymmetric Demand Structure

We examine strategic product line choices of manufacturers in a stylised duopoly model where products have asymmetric and interdependent market conditions. We characterise the optimal product line decisions and show that manufacturers always prefer to have head‐to‐head competition (and never segment markets) when product line setup cost is small relative to profitability of the products. When setup costs are high, symmetric manufacturers may prefer to have asymmetric product lines or market segmentation. We show that high setup costs lead to the market segmentation outcome only if there is no significant market size difference and the level of product substitutability is moderate.     

The Impact of a Disorderly Resolution of Global Imbalances on Global Wealth

Partly reflecting structural advantages such as liquidity and strong investor protection, foreigners have built up extremely large positions in US (as well as other dollar‐denominated) financial assets. This paper describes the impact on global wealth of an unanticipated shock to US financial markets. For every 10 per cent decline in the dollar, US equity markets, and US bond markets, total wealth losses to foreigners could amount to about 5 percentage points of foreign GDP. Four stylized facts emerge: (i) foreign countries, particularly emerging markets, are more exposed to US bonds than to US equities; (ii) over time US exposure has increased for most countries; (iii) on average, US asset holdings of developed countries and emerging markets (scaled by GDP) are very similar; and (iv) based on their reserves position alone, wealth losses of emerging market governments could on average amount to about 2¾ percentage points of their GDP.