WHY ARE SOME PLACES RICH WHILE OTHERS ARE POOR? THE INSTITUTIONAL NECESSITY OF ECONOMIC FREEDOM

We survey perspectives on the economic differences between countries and argue that economic freedom is the key to prosperity. We close by outlining the policy implications. Specifically, removing obstacles to the exercise of economic freedom is an important step towards prosperity.     

ARE OFFICIAL POVERTY STATISTICS NECESSARY?

Caritas Switzerland has recently criticised the country's lack of official poverty statistics in strong terms, and called for the introduction of internationally accepted poverty measures. However, the fact that these measures are widely used is not a testimony to their reliability, which is more than questionable. It appears that Caritas Switzerland is actually seeking some empirical support for the interventionist social policies it supports. Given the success of Switzerland's decentralised social policies, the recommendation that the country should abandon its tradition and become a conventional European social democracy is surprising.     

DEVELOPMENT THROUGH FAIR TRADE: CANDOUR OR DECEPTION?

Proponents of development through Fair Trade allege the movement can seek out the most disadvantaged in ways an impersonal market cannot. While in theory Fair Trade could provide these qualities in a market‐based framework, the evidence herein shows the current Fair Trade movement is failing when measured against these objectives.     

WHICH AGGLOMERATION EXTERNALITIES MATTER MOST AND WHY?

This paper revisits the ongoing discussion on the importance of agglomeration externalities – specifically specialization, diversity and competition effects – that may contribute to innovation, productivity and urban employment growth. Previous meta‐analyses suggested that the evidence on agglomeration externalities is strongly context‐specific. Expanding an earlier analysis of 31 articles, we seek to draw in this paper more robust conclusions by means of the statistical evidence for agglomeration externalities presented in 73 scientific articles, all building on the seminal work of Glaeser et al. (1992). Our results confirm that the heterogeneity among studies is huge and can only be partially accounted for by means of an ordered probit analysis. Additionally, some evidence of publication bias is found. We conclude that the conventional lines of inquiry in this literature may now have reached strongly diminishing returns. New lines of inquiry, using rich micro‐level data on firms and workers, dynamic general equilibrium models at the macro level, more attention for spatial and temporal variation in the impacts of agglomeration, and further investigations into the spatial scope of externalities are promising avenues for further research that can enhance our understanding of how agglomeration externalities continue to fuel our increasingly urbanized world.     

ARE EMPIRICAL MEASURES OF MACROECONOMIC UNCERTAINTY ALIKE?

Abstract There is a plethora of time series measures of uncertainty for inflation and real output growth in empirical studies but little is known whether they are comparable to the uncertainty measure reported by individual forecasters in the survey of professional forecasters. Are these two measures of uncertainty inherently distinct? This paper shows that, compared with many uncertainty proxies produced by time series models, the use of real‐time data with fixed‐sample recursive estimation of an asymmetric bivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity model yields inflation uncertainty estimates which resemble the survey measure. There is, however, overwhelming evidence that many of the time series measures of growth uncertainty exceed the level of uncertainty obtained from survey measure. Our results highlight the relative merits of using different methods in modelling macroeconomic uncertainty which are useful for empirical researchers.     

WHY EUROPE? A CRITIQUE OF INSTITUTIONALIST AND CULTURALIST ECONOMICS

Abstract Economists have recently started to discuss the roles of institutions and cultural beliefs in explaining the performance of civilizations. This paper investigates two views, ‘institutionalist economics’ and ‘culturalist economics’, with regard to the question of why Europe rose economically a few centuries ago, while other regions of the world lagged behind. These two views share a common platform raised on two pillars. First, both regard institutions/beliefs as extra‐economic – as primordial entities that ultimately stand independent of economic performance. Second, both regard economic performance as fully determined by institutions/beliefs – i.e. normative causality in the sense that institutions/beliefs determine performance. Douglass North's (2005) analysis of economic performance, for example, is based on both pillars. Concerning the primordial pillar, he attributes ‘the mystery’ of the rise of Europe to primordial beliefs, viz. ‘Christian dogma’ and English ‘individualism’. Concerning the normative pillar, he presumes that such beliefs have almost one‐to‐one correspondence with economic performance. This paper, though, maintains that the two pillars (primordial analysis and normative causality) are rather fragile: Advocates of the first pillar fail to recognize that institutions/beliefs are endogenous. Advocates of the second pillar fail to recognize that institutions/beliefs can give rise to diverse economic performances.     

WHY DO WE LIE? A PRACTICAL GUIDE TO THE DISHONESTY LITERATURE

Over the last decade, a massive body of research has been devoted to uncovering human dishonesty. In the present paper, we review more than a hundred papers from this literature and provide a comprehensive overview by first listing the existing theoretical frameworks, and then covering the common empirical approaches, synthesizing the demographic and personal characteristics of those who cheat, identifying the behavioural mechanisms found that affect dishonesty and finally we finish by discussing how the empirical evidence fit theory. Overall, the review concludes that many people behave dishonestly, but also that it is a highly malleable behavior sensitive to elements such as decision contexts, behaviour of others, state of mind and depletion. The review can be used as an overview of the dishonesty literature or as a guide or work of reference for selected topics of interest.     

TRADE DIVERSIFICATION,INCOME, AND GROWTH: WHAT DO WE KNOW?

This paper surveys the empirical literature on export and import diversification and its linkages with growth. We review widely used measures of diversification and the evidence about their evolution focusing on how export diversification relates to trade liberalization and economic development. We also discuss the linkages between trade diversification and productivity at the firm and industry level, highlighting new advances on the linkages between import diversification and productivity.     

HOW EFFECTIVE ARE UNEMPLOYMENT BENEFIT SANCTIONS? LOOKING BEYOND UNEMPLOYMENT EXIT

This paper provides a comprehensive evaluation of the effects of benefit sanctions on post‐unemployment outcomes such as post‐unemployment employment stability and earnings. We use rich register data which allow us to distinguish between a warning that a benefit reduction may take place in the near future and the actual withdrawal of unemployment benefits. Adopting a multivariate mixed proportional hazard approach to address selectivity, we find that warnings do not affect subsequent employment stability but do reduce post‐unemployment earnings. Actual benefit reductions lower the quality of post‐unemployment jobs both in terms of job duration as well as in terms of earnings. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

ARE ALL ECONOMIC FACTS GREATLY EXAGGERATED? THEORY COMPETITION AND SELECTIVITY

Abstract ..There is growing concern and mounting evidence of selectivity in empirical economics. Most empirical economic literatures have a truncated distribution of results. The aim of this paper is to explore the link between publication selectivity and theory contests. This link is confirmed through the analysis of 87 distinct empirical economics literatures, involving more than three and a half thousand separate empirical studies, using objective measures of both selectivity and contests. Our meta–meta‐analysis shows that publication selection is widespread, but not universal. It distorts scientific inference with potentially adverse effects on policy making, but competition and debate between rival theories reduces this selectivity and thereby improves economic inference.     

WHY IS THERE A LACK OF EVIDENCE ON KNOWLEDGE SPILLOVERS FROM FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT?

Empirical analyses of knowledge spillovers from foreign direct investment (FDI) offer mixed results; they find positive, neutral and negative FDI spillover effects. This lack of evidence mainly comes from the results of firm‐level panel data analysis. This is important since this approach seems to be the most appropriate for estimating FDI spillovers. The paper takes a look at recent substantive and methodological developments in FDI spillover analysis, which have brought some more optimistic results with regard to FDI spillovers, and can help in further development in this field. The main substantive development relates to the introduction of a broad variety of sources of firm heterogeneity (foreign affiliates as well as local firms) in the analysis. Others include differentiation between vertical (inter‐industry) and horizontal (intra‐industry) spillovers, and host country absorptive capacity for knowledge spillovers. Methodological developments relate to distinguishing between technological/knowledge and productivity spillovers, improvement of modelling and estimation methods, and an increased amount and quality of data.     

HOW SENSITIVE ARE RETIREMENT DECISIONS TO FINANCIAL INCENTIVES? A STATED PREFERENCE ANALYSIS

We study the effects of financial incentives on retirement decisions using stated preference data. Dutch survey respondents were given hypothetical retirement scenarios describing age(s) of (partial and full) retirement and replacement rate(s). A stylized model is estimated in which utility is the discounted sum of within‐period utilities that depend on employment status and income. Parameters of the utility function vary with observed and unobserved characteristics. Simulations show that the income and substitution effects of pensions as a function of the retirement age are substantial and larger than according to studies using data on actual retirement decisions in the Netherlands. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A LITERATURE REVIEW OF CLUSTER THEORY: ARE RELATIONS AMONG CLUSTERS IMPORTANT?

Having reviewed 1259 papers on cluster theory, we find that current cluster studies primarily discussed cluster phenomena from either a microlevel or mesolevel. We argue that studying relations among clusters would increase our understanding of clusters, and such a research topic is worth becoming a new research orientation for cluster theory.     

FROM INSTITUTIONS TO FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENT AND GROWTH: WHAT ARE THE LINKS?

This paper presents an integrated overview of the literature linking institutions, financial development, and economic growth. From the large body of research on institutional development, the paper first selects those contributions that make it possible to study the role of institutional arrangements in ameliorating/worsening the information frictions and transaction costs that characterize the development of financial markets. The paper then investigates the theoretical mechanisms by which these specific frictions affect economic growth and presents the stock of empirical evidence quantifying the impact of institutions on growth through financial development.     

RETURN TO EXPERIENCE AND INITIAL WAGE LEVEL: DO LOW WAGE WORKERS CATCH UP?

This paper estimates the relationship between initial wage and return to experience. We use a Mincer‐like wage model to non‐parametrically estimate this relationship allowing for an unobservable individual permanent effect in wages and unobservable individual return to experience. The relationship between return to experience and unobservable individual ability is negative when conditioning on educational attainment, while the relationship between return to experience and educational attainment is positive. We link our findings to three main theories of wage growth, namely search, unobserved productivity and learning, and human capital. We devise several empirical tests in order to separate the theories. We find evidence in favor of the unobserved productivity and learning model and mixed evidence regarding the search model. We find no evidence in support of the human capital model. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

WHITHER PANAMA? CONSTRUCTING A CONSISTENT AND BALANCED WORLD SUT SYSTEM INCLUDING INTERNATIONAL TRADE AND TRANSPORT MARGINS

This paper extends work done within the World Input–Output Database project (WIOD), which compiled supply and use tables (SUTs) for 40 countries, covering about 85% of the world economy, by adding SUTs for the “rest of the world” (RoW), the approximately 15% of the world economy not covered by the 40 countries included in the WIOD database, ensuring a consistent and balanced world SUT system. The term “consistency” means that at the world level, all flows of goods and services balance, properly accounting for trade and transport services used in international trade (the “cif-fob difference”). This results in SUTs for the RoW which, together with bilateral trade matrices for all commodities (and together with the 40 national SUTs from the WIOD project), describe a consistent SUT system at the world level.     

HOW DID PAUL KRUGMAN GET IT SO WRONG?1

This article is a response to Paul Krugman's New York Times Magazine article, ‘How Did Economists Get It So Wrong?’ Krugman's attack on modern economics – and many adhominem attacks on modern economists – display a deep and highly politicised ignorance of what economics and finance is really all about, and a striking emptiness of useful ideas.