Expenditure Inequality in Indonesia, 2008–2010: A Spatial Decomposition Analysis and the Role of Education

Based on the 2008–2010 Susenas panel data, this study examines expenditure inequality from spatial perspectives in Indonesia, using three decomposition methods: (i) a conventional Theil index decomposition; (ii) an alternative Theil index decomposition proposed by Elbers et al. (2008); and (iii) the Blinder?Oaxaca decomposition. Our results show that overall inequality in per capita expenditure increases between 2008 and 2010, which coincides with a rising trend in the official Gini coefficient. The contribution of inequality within urban and rural areas to total inequality is larger than that of inequality between urban and rural areas. Looking within urban and rural areas, urban inequality is significantly higher than rural inequality. Java‐Bali in particular records very high urban inequality. Overall, urban inequality increases, urban–rural inequality remains stable, rural inequality decreases, and inequality at the national level increases. Although urban–rural inequality has a relatively low share in overall inequality, the share is not small enough to ignore its impact. Furthermore, when using the alternative decomposition method, the contribution of urban–rural inequality increases substantially. The present study also found that educational differences appear to have played an important role in expenditure inequality within urban areas and between urban and rural areas.     

Feeling Richer or Poorer than Others: A Cross‐section and Panel Analysis of Subjective Economic Status in Indonesia*

This paper examines what makes us feel richer or poorer than others. It investigates cross‐sectional and longitudinal determinants of individuals’ subjective economic status in Indonesia. Using two waves of Indonesian Family Life Surveys, 1997 and 2000, I show that individuals’ perceptions of where they are on the economic scale are more dependent on a number of socioeconomic characteristics, as well as their attitudes towards their future economic status, than their current spending capacities would suggest. I also find significant, albeit weaker, expenditure and income effects on individuals’ subjective economic status once individual fixed effects are controlled for in the regression.     

Structural Changes and Regional Income Inequality in Indonesia: A Bidimensional Decomposition Analysis*

Using the bidimensional decomposition method of a population‐weighted coefficient of variation, this paper analyzes the changes in the determinants of interprovincial income inequality associated with structural changes in Indonesia from 1983 to 2004. The method unifies two inequality decompositions by regional groups and gross regional product components (industrial sectors) and, therefore, enables us to assess the contributions of gross regional product components to within‐region and between‐region inequalities, as well as to overall inequality. As the share of mining has decreased, the spatial distribution of manufacturing has played a more important role in the inequality of Sumatra and Kalimantan, while the primacy of Jakarta, with strong urbanization economies, facilitated by globalization and trade and financial liberalization, has determined much of the Java–Bali region's inequality and, therefore, overall inequality in Indonesia.     

Towards a Measure of Core Inflation using Singular Spectrum Analysis

This paper constructs a number of possible core measures of inflation using singular spectrum analysis (SSA). Annual changes in monthly inflation are decomposed into its trend, oscillatory and noise components in order to develop an understanding of the trend and cyclicality in South African headline inflation. Three cyclical components with differing amplitude and frequency are identified. The trend and cyclical components of inflation are found to be a good approximation of core inflation, the inertial part of inflation. These core measures are compared with other candidate core measures based on the properties of a good core inflation measure. Generally, the SSA measures outperform commonly used measures of core inflation based on both in‐ and out‐of‐sample performance.     

四川省城市经济高质量发展水平空间关联及其影响因素研究

在对四川省21市(州)经济高质量发展水平全面测度的基础上,通过修正的引力模型,从社会网络分析视角对其经济高质量发展水平空间关联网络结构及其影响因素进行实证研究。结果表明：四川省21市(州)经济高质量发展水平空间关联网络密度较低,呈现出“核心-边缘”分布,只有成都市和绵阳市发挥了明显的中介作用,各市(州)经济发展不平衡的问题突显;空间距离、产业结构、创新环境和城市活力会对四川省21市(州)经济高质量发展水平空间关联网络的形成产生影响。     

贵州省红、绿、古色旅游景区空间结构与相关性分析及优化

对贵州省3A级及以上高等级旅游景区为研究对象,按照景区主要属性将其划分为红、绿、古色旅游景区,运用最邻近指数、核密度分析以及空间自相关分析研究其空间分布特征。结果表明：(1)贵州省高等级红色旅游景区空间分布为随机型,绿、古色旅游景区空间分布为集聚型,其中古色旅游景区集聚程度最大;(2)贵州省各类型高等级旅游景区空间分布密度总体呈现“西北多东南少”的分布特征,红色旅游景区呈“一核两点”的分布特征,绿色旅游景区呈“两核多点”的分布特征,古色旅游景区主要围绕具有历史文化底蕴的城市分布;(3)贵州省各类型高等级旅游景区之间均存在较弱的空间自相关,热点区主要位于黔西北地区,黔西南、黔南、黔东南位于冷点区。最后,基于上述研究结果,从红、绿、古色专项旅游发展的角度提出贵州省各类型高等级旅游景区空间分布优化的建议。     

Endogenous,Intra‐household Decision‐making and its Impact on the Labor Supply of Couples in Rural India*

Using data for rural India, this paper analyzes households' labor supply decision‐making, taking into consideration non‐participation, endogenous intrahousehold bargaining and nutritional status. Analyses of unitary and collective models suggest that bargaining between household members forms the basis of households' decisions, and these decisions alter households' internal power balance. Analysis of households' internal bargaining process suggests that women's bargaining power increases when their wages are higher and they are better educated. The results indicate that it is crucial to account for the mechanics of decision‐making within households when studying the effects of changing labor market conditions or designing development policies to improve individual well‐being or to empower women.     

Does Trade,Technology, or Education Expel Traditional Sectors? Some Evidence from the Collapse of the Silk Sector in South Korea*

Rapid economic growth and development often drives out traditional activities. We determine how increased trade, technology, and access to education in South Korea led to the collapse of its silk sector. Results show that although the imports of silk yarn and fabric reduced domestic silk output and prices, trade liberalization was not the sole contributor to the collapse. Inelastic labor demand for unskilled workers, skill‐biased technology, and especially increased access to education all led to a sharp rise in the relative wage of unskilled workers, and the ensuing rise in production costs contributed to the silk sector's collapse.     

Human Capital and Hours Worked of Children in Cambodia: Empirical Evidence for Policy Implications*

This study uses data from the Cambodian Child Labor Survey 2001/02 (CCLS‐2001/02) to investigate the trade‐off between child labor and their human capital formation. It also investigates the determinants of child schooling and that of the income earned from child labor. This study finds that children's education is a significant determinant of their wage rate, which implicitly explains the logic behind the household's decision to allow a child to both work and study, and thus explains why parents keep investing in their children's education. We also find that non‐poor households and fathers’ and mothers’ education have statistically significant effects on child schooling. Finally, this study has found that if children's average working hours are below the threshold level of 22 h per week, then education is not affected. These research findings have policy implications for the human capital development of children, as well as for broader social policy in Cambodia.     

Re‐Examining the Role of Structural Change and Nonlinearities in a Phillips Curve Model for South Africa

Although studies generally find evidence of a Phillips curve‐type relationship in South Africa, uncertainty remains about the relevance of the model over a relatively long sample period, and whether conventional output gap measures are suitable proxies for demand pressure. This paper reviews research which shows that the Phillips curve model prevails over an extended sample, provided that the benchmark specifications include major structural changes in the balance‐of‐payments and labour market, and account for shifts in the root causes of inflation. When this is done, a linear specification with an output gap in levels correctly predicts the non‐trended inflation pattern over the period 1971(Q1)–1984(Q4), whereas a piecewise concave curve with an output gap in growth rates accurately forecasts the decelerating inflation pattern during 1986(Q1)–2001(Q2). A novel feature of the concave model is that it remains statistically robust and structurally stable when it is estimated until 2015(Q4). The concave model imparts a disinflationary bias, which suggests that monetary policy should be more expansionary during downswing phases of the business cycle and neutral during upswing phases. The analysis also considers how the shape of the Phillips curve might change if the balance‐of‐payments constraint on demand is relaxed in a significant way.     

Regional Competition in China under the Price Distortion of Construction Land: A Study Based on a Two‐regime Spatial Durbin Model

This study examines regional competition in China by considering the spatial correlation and spillover effect of construction land price distortion using a two‐regime Spatial Durbin Model to investigate the patterns and trends of the competition between 285 cities in China from 2006 to 2015. The study finds: (i) price distortion of construction land is a common phenomenon but the distortion index generally shows a declining trend; (ii) regional competition through construction land price distortion shows a weakly intensified pattern, although the competition patterns in the four regions of China varied; and (iii) the intensity of competition between regions was lower during the 12th Five‐year Plan compared to the 11th Plan. The intensity of competition between cities was also lower inside than outside urban agglomerations. These results provide policy implications for remedying the price distortion of construction land and promoting regional coordinated development.     

Spillovers in Exchange Rates and the Effects of Global Shocks on Emerging Market Currencies

This paper provides an investigation into the spillover effects of exchange rate returns and volatility for developed and emerging market currencies, using data from 1997 to 2011. The results suggest that spillovers in exchange rate returns have increased steadily over time, in moderate reaction to economic events. In contrast, spillovers in total observed volatility (measured by squared returns) react more strongly to economic events, and this transmission has remained at a relatively high level since the global financial crisis. Furthermore, over the course of time, global shocks would appear to account for a larger proportion of aggregate exchange rate volatility (and the relative importance of domestic shocks has declined). The paper also considers whether the increase in volatility spillover is due to sudden shocks, or whether it is due to changes in the stochastic trend of the underlying volatility process. The results suggests that in most cases, this increase is due to sudden shocks, however, in certain instances country‐specific events may perpetuate changes to the trend of the underlying volatility spillover.