Study On Some Problems In Estimating China's Gross Domestic Product

This paper discusses the five main problems with current price estimates of China's Gross Domestic Product (GDP). These are the measurement of housing services, fiscal subsidies, welfare services provided within enterprises, rural industry and livestock products. The paper gives the possible ranges of error arising from problems in these areas and shows their quantitative impact on GDP estimates. The paper concludes that these problems have some impact on the structure of China's GDP, but limited impact on the total size of China's GDP. The official estimates, therefore, provide a reasonably accurate measure of the size of China's current price GDP.     

如何建立国内生产福利总值核算体系

从以人为本的科学发展经济价值目标角度看,GDP存在一定的缺陷。对此,本文提出以国内生产福利总值(GDPW)为核心的新价值模式,同时探讨国内生产福利总值的内涵与特征、核算基本框架与原则。     

贸易条件对实际汇率的影响——基于国际经验的对比分析

基于102个国家1995~2015年的面板数据,本文实证分析了贸易条件对实际汇率的影响,发现汇率制度和贸易开放度会影响贸易条件对实际汇率的效果。在浮动汇率制国家,贸易条件改善会导致实际汇率升值,而在非浮动汇率制国家贸易条件对实际汇率影响不显著。在贸易开放度低的国家,贸易条件改善会导致实际汇率升值;相反在贸易开放度高的国家,贸易条件改善会导致实际汇率贬值。因此,各国在制定贸易政策和汇率政策时要充分考虑本国汇率制度和贸易开放度的实际情况。     

实际威克塞尔效应与总量模型的有效性

“剑桥资本争论”对大量异质品加总后的总量模型提出了质疑,因为“技术再转换”和“资本倒流”的存在,总量模型在解释具有大量异质资本品的实际经济时出现了逻辑上的“悖论”。为阐明这种总量模型的有效性,实际威克塞尔效应为负被认为是一个十分重要的限定条件,只要保持实际威克塞尔效应为负,即在规则经济条件下,大量异质品加总后的总量模型才是有效的,否则,总量模型必然产生逻辑上的“悖论”。     

Commodity Prices and the Terms of Trade

On combining national terms-of-trade data for developing countries with world prices of internationally traded primary commodities, it is found that variation in the world prices of three or fewer key exported commodities account for 50% or more of the annual variation in the terms of trade of a typical developing country. A considerable fraction of the variation is specific to a particular commodity and, given that the overall importance of primary commodities differs across developing countries, it is possible to account for much of the heterogeneity across them. It is concluded that commodity price fluctuations should be central features of two related literatures: studies of business cycle transmission across developing and industrialized nations, and empirical work aimed at constructing perpetual claims on developing country incomes as suggested by Shiller in 1995.     

试论国内区际贸易与对外贸易利益的关系

对外贸易的发展理应建立在国内区际贸易充分开展的基础上。国内区际贸易的开展对对外贸易利益的取得具有重要的意义。我国改革开放过程中的国内市场分割现象,使得国内区际贸易滞后于对外贸易快速发展,并制约了对外贸易利益最大化的实现。本文的政策结论是通过加快改革逐步实现国内经济市场化和一体化以提高外贸利益。     

Primary Commodity Prices and the Terms of Trade*

This paper provides a survey of a range of issues involved in the analysis of primary commodity prices and the terms of trade. Particular emphasis is placed upon the long-run behaviour of the terms of trade between primary commodities and manufactures and the paper presents some new evidence regarding the long-run behaviour of Australia's terms of trade.     

On Terms of Trade and Capital Accumulation

This paper studies, within an OLG general equilibrium framework, the role of relative factor intensities in determining the relationship between the terms of trade and the capital stock. It shows that a diversified production equilibrium can be characterized by a positive association between these two variables if the investment sector is more labor-intensive and sector technologies are relatively dissimilar. Therefore, capital accumulation and terms-of-trade improvements do not require an import sector growing faster than the export sector when the latter is more capital-intensive. Large Stolper–Samuelson effects on factor incomes drive the results.     

Openness, Government Size and the Terms of Trade

This paper investigates the relationship between trade openness and the size of governments, both theoretically and empirically. We argue that openness can increase the size of governments through two channels: (1) a terms-of-trade externality, whereby trade lowers the domestic cost of taxation, and (2) the demand for insurance, whereby trade raises risk and public transfers. We provide a unified framework for studying and testing these two mechanisms. Our main theoretical prediction is that the relative strength of the two explanations depends on a key parameter, namely, the elasticity of substitution between domestic and foreign goods. Moreover, while the first mechanism is inefficient from the standpoint of world welfare, the second, instead, is optimal. In the empirical part of the paper, we provide new evidence on the positive association between openness and government size and we explore its determinants. Consistent with the terms-of-trade externality channel, we show that the correlation is contingent on a low elasticity of substitution between domestic and foreign goods. Our findings raise warnings that globalization may have led to inefficiently large governments.     

国际贸易与国内制度框架

正式的国际贸易理论不能完全解释发展中国家扩大出口带来的经济增长。作者运用制度分析的方法,考察了东亚的例证,分析了国际贸易在什么样的国内制度框架中才能成为推动经济发展的积极因素。     

对外贸易与国内地理布局

在这本书(指《空间经济:城市、区域和国际贸易》一书)中,我们将建立三种模型:一是区域模型,在此模型中工业制成品是可流动的而农产品是不可流动的;二是城市模型,在此模型中除了土地以外,其它要素都是可流动的;三是国际模型,在此模型中要素不可流动,但中间产品创造了前向联系和后向联系。当然,在本质上,它们可以混在一起。例如,借助中间产品在区域分割1中起作用。毫无疑问,在现实世界里我们的人为分类不起作用。     

Domestic Trade and Transport Costs in International Trade Theory

This paper examines the effects that domestic trade and transport margins have on international trade and the consequences for the central trade theorems. Specifically, the Heckscher-Ohlin-Samuelson model is expanded to include a third industry that produces the nontraded domestic services in transportation, warehousing, wholesaling and retailing required to market goods to final purchasers. It is found that the domestic margins probably impose substantial natural trade barriers and that they can cause the central trade theorems (factor-price equalization, Stolper-Samuelson, and Rybczynski) to fail. [F11]     

Technical Progress and the North–South Terms of Trade

In a classical world where prices of both northern manufactures and southern raw materials are determined by market demand and supply, technical progress in one region leads to a terms-of-trade improvement of the other region irrespective of whether technical progress is labor-saving or raw-material saving. But in a neo-Kaleckian framework characterized by surplus capacity, and an effective demand problem in the North and a capacity constraint in the South, the terms of trade would turn against the South even if the North experienced a higher rate of technical progress than that of the South.     

Cross-Border Pollution,Terms of Trade,and Welfare

We construct a two-good general equilibrium model of international trade for two small open economies where pollution from production is transmitted across borders. Governments in both countries impose emission taxes non-cooperatively. Within this framework, we examine the effect of changes in the degree of cross-border pollution on Nash emission taxes, emission levels and welfare. We do so under two scenarios: when changes in cross-border pollution do not affect domestic pollution (non-strategic) and when they do (strategic). We also examine the effect of changes in international terms of trade on pollution and welfare when cross-border pollution is non-strategic.      

论产品质量与扩大国内需求

解决“过剩经济”问题 ,当然应当主要从需求角度入手 ,但目前需求不足 ,原因很多 ,其中一个重要的原因是我国产品质量不过关 ,本文试图从如何处理不合格产品 ,以及如何提高产品质量的角度 ,来分析需求的扩大。     

出口产品多样化与贸易绩效——基于引力模型的分析

近年来,国际贸易的发展为中国开拓国际市场起到了重要作用.随着中国产品走向世界,我们从中发现了产品多样化对出口贸易存在着正效应,且对出口贸易有非常稳定的影响作用.把握选取产品多样化的方法,对企业合理、准确定位产品有重大意义,同时也能使中国工业产品结构更趋合理,从而达到在国际经济活动中获取更大利益的目的.     

贸易条件恶化论的发展及意义

本文通过对贸易条件恶化论进行全面的分析，得出了低技术层次出口商品相对于高技术层次出口商品存在着长期贸易条件的恶化，并且随着科技的进步，贸易条件恶化的范围越来越广，但一国可以通过持续的技术进步来改善贸易条件，从而得出要改变我国不利的贸易条件，其最佳途径是不懈的技术进步。     

论生活排污权交易制

当前城市生活污染已呈超过工业污染之势,城市环境保护工作面临着加快环保基础设施建设的紧迫任务。而与此同时,一大批致力于生活污染源头控制的环保技术和设备却得不到转化和应用。针对这一目前城市环境管理工作中的新矛盾,本文在借鉴工业排污权交易制的基础上,首次提出了生活排污权交易制的设想,并就生活排污权交易制的理论基础、运作模式以及急待解决的一些问题等方面展开了论述。     

关于内外贸一体化的再思考

加快内外贸一体化进程是发展社会主义市场经济的内在要求,内外贸一体化的目的就是要充分发挥流通的先导作用,充分拓展流通的功能.统筹国内发展和对外开放,需要统一管理职能,统一经营主体,统一内外市场.     

Entwicklungshilfe,technischer Fortschritt und Terms of Trade

Ohne ZusammenfassungMit 3 TextabbildungenDieser Aufsatz ist der erste Teil einer Studie über Entwicklungshilfe und internationale Wirtschaftsbeziehungen, deren zweiter Teil unter dem Titel Wirtschaftliches Wachstum und Entwicklungshilfe — dargestellt an einem Harrod-Domar-Modell im nächsten Heft dieser Zeitschrift erscheint. Dort sollen insbesondere die mit der finanziellen Hilfe zusammenhängenden Probleme untersucht werden.Für wertvolle Anregungen danke ich Herrn Professor Dr. Bernhard Pfister, Frau Professor Dr. Utta Gruber, Herrn Dr. Anton Konrad und Herrn Dipl.-Vw. Franz Holzheu. Ganz besonders danken möchte ich meinem verehrten Lehrer, Herrn Professor Dr. Hans Möller, ohne dessen Rat und hilfreiche Kritik die Arbeit wohl kaum möglich gewesen wäre. Professor Möller und Professor Franz Gehrels (Indiana University) haben dankenswerterweise diese Fassung (bzw. die §§ 1–3) gelesen; auf Grund ihrer Kritik habe ich noch mehrere Umformulierungen und Ergänzungen vorgenommen.