Migration and Wage‐setting: Reassessing the Labor Market Effects of Migration*

In this paper we employ a wage‐setting approach to analyze the labor market effects of immigration into Germany from 1980 to 2004. This enables us to consider labor market rigidities, which are prevalent in Europe. We find that the elasticity of the wage‐setting curve is particularly high for young workers. Moreover, natives and foreigners are imperfect substitutes. The wage and employment effects of immigration depend on the skill structure of the immigrant workforce. Because the foreign labor supply shift has mainly affected the high‐skilled labor market segment, the 4 percent increase of the workforce through immigration has not increased either aggregate or foreign unemployment.     

Technology, trade, and adjustment to immigration in Israel

In the early 1990s Israel experienced a surge of immigration from the former Soviet Union. Russian immigrants had high relative education levels. There is little evidence that the immigration shock put downward pressure on Israeli wages. We examine two mechanisms through which Israel may have absorbed labor-supply changes related to the Russian immigration: Global changes in production technology and national changes in output mix. Global changes in production techniques, which appear consistent with skill-biased technical change, were sufficient to more than offset Israel's change in relative factor supplies. Changes in output mix did not help Israel absorb changes in relative factor supplies.     

Do Australian Qualifications Help? The Effect of Host Country Qualification on Migrant Participation and Unemployment*

The current Australian migration program rewards applicants for possessing Australian tertiary qualifications. This study examines whether such qualifications help mitigate the labour market disadvantages faced by immigrants in Australia. The effect of host country qualification on labour market assimilation is estimated by comparing the labour force participation and unemployment of natives with two groups of migrants: those holding foreign qualifications and those holding Australian qualifications. Controlling for factors such as level of education and experience, there is no evidence that Australian qualifications result in better labour market outcomes for migrants.     

Labor Market Effects of Economic Integration: The Impact of Re-Unification in German Border Regions

Abstract. This paper exploits the significant reduction in impediments to labor mobility in the process of German re-unification in order to identify labor supply shocks in the West German labor market. The focus is on the quasi-experiment of the border removal in the regions situated at the German–German border that faced a massive increase of cross-border labor supply. The results indicate that despite a gain in employment, the border removal was accompanied by a decline in wages and an increase in unemployment relative to other West German regions.     

The microeconomic determinants of emigration and return migration of the best and brightest: Evidence from the Pacific

A unique survey which tracks worldwide the best and brightest academic performers from three Pacific countries is used to assess the extent of emigration and return migration among the very highly skilled, and to analyze, at the microeconomic level, the determinants of these migration choices. Although we estimate that the income gains from migration are very large, not everyone migrates and many return. Within this group of highly skilled individuals the emigration decision is found to be most strongly associated with preference variables such as risk aversion and patience, and choice of subjects in secondary school, and not strongly linked to either liquidity constraints or to the gain in income to be had from migrating. Likewise, the decision to return is strongly linked to family and lifestyle reasons, rather than to the income opportunities in different countries. Overall the data suggest a relatively limited role for income maximization in distinguishing migration propensities among the very highly skilled, and a need to pay more attention to other components of the utility maximization decision.     

The fiscal impact of high-skilled emigration: Flows of Indians to the U.S.

What are the fiscal consequences of high-skilled emigration for source countries? This paper develops methodologies for inferring these consequences and applies them to the recent sizable emigration of high-skilled workers from India to the U.S. This wave of emigration from India to the U.S. is shown to be unusually concentrated amongst the prime-age work force, the highly educated and high earners. In order to calculate the fiscal losses associated with these emigrants, estimates of their counterfactual earnings distributions are generated using two distinct methods and integrated with a model of the Indian fiscal system to calculate fiscal consequences. Conservative estimates indicate that the annual net fiscal impact to India of high-skilled emigration to the U.S. is one-half of 1% of gross national income (or 2.5% of total fiscal revenues). The sensitivity of these results to the method of predicting counterfactual incomes and the implications of these estimates for other developing countries is discussed in detail.     

Psychological Traits and Earnings Differentials among Men: A Study of Second‐generation Immigrants in Sweden*

The purpose of this study is to analyse the impact of psychological traits on earnings differentials between second‐generation immigrants and individuals with native‐born parents. The study is based on a cohort of men born in 1973 and residing in Sweden in 1990. In this paper, we use an indicator of psychological ability measured in connection with the military enlistment test in Sweden. The results show that the measure of psychological traits is an important determinant of earnings at the age of 30. Using an Oaxaca–Blinder decomposition, we find that earnings differentials between second‐generation immigrants and individuals with native‐born parents are explained, to a large degree, by differences in endowments of psychological traits.     

Determinants of Labor Market Participation and Wages of North Korean Female Refugees in South Korea

This paper uses data from a survey on 289 North Korean female refugees who arrived in South Korea in 2007 to understand the determinants of their economic adaption in the South Korean labor market. More specifically, we look at the effects of job finding channels and government policies on the labor market participation and wages of these women. We find that job finding through both personal contacts and public employment networks increases the probability of finding employment, but the former, especially job finding through contacts with South Koreans, is the most effective route to finding employment. In addition, jobs with higher wages are acquired in employment attained from South Korean referrals, followed by South Korean government agencies and those from North Korean refugee contacts. We further find that labor market participation is negatively affected by both public benefits and private transfers possibly because of increases in the reservation wages of job seekers.     

Winners and losers: a micro-level analysis of international outsourcing and wages

Abstract.  Our paper investigates the link between international outsourcing and wages utilizing a large household panel and combining it with industry-level information on industries' outsourcing activities from input-output tables. This approach avoids problems such as aggregation bias, potential endogeneity bias, and poor skill definitions that commonly hamper industry-level studies. We find that outsourcing has had a marked impact on wages. Applying two alternative skill classifications, we find evidence that a 1 percentage point increase in outsourcing reduced the wage for workers in the lowest skill categories by up to 1.5%, while it increased wages for high-skilled workers by up to 2.6%. This result is robust to a number of different specifications.     

Patterns of Welfare Dependence before and after a Reform: Evidence from First Generation Immigrants and Natives in Germany

This paper studies the patterns of welfare dependence among first generation immigrants and natives in Germany before and after a substantial recent reform of the welfare system. Using data from the German Socio‐Economic Panel Study, the analysis presents life cycle trajectories of transfer receipt for immigrants and natives and studies the correlation between contextual factors and transfer receipt. We find no statistically significant differences in the probability of transfer receipt between immigrants and natives once socioeconomic characteristics are taken into account. Being a single parent, labor market status, and human capital are most closely correlated with the incidence of transfer receipt for both natives and immigrants. Interestingly, recent welfare reforms did not reverse prior patterns of welfare dependence.     

Accounting for United States Household Income Inequality Trends: The Changing Importance of Household Structure and Male and Female Labor Earnings Inequality

Using a shift‐share analysis on March CPS data, this paper estimates the degree to which changes in labor earnings, employment, and marriage patterns account for household income inequality growth in the United States since 1979. The factors contributing to the rapid rise in income inequality in the 1980s differ substantially from those contributing to its slower increase since that time. Unlike findings for the 1980s when changes in the correlation of spouses' earnings accounted for income inequality growth, this factor is no longer a major contributor toward its continued increase. Additionally, the 2000s business cycle is the first full business cycle in at least 30 years where changes in earnings of male household heads accounted for declines in income inequality. Instead, the continued growth in income inequality in the 2000s was accounted for primarily by increases in female earnings inequality and declines in both male and female employment.     

The impact of the credit crisis on poor developing countries: Growth,worker remittances,accumulation and migration

We show that the credit crisis of OECD countries has a negative impact on the growth of the world economy according to an error-correction model including China and Australia. This causes negative growth effects in poor developing countries. The reduced growth has a direct or indirect impact on the convergence issue, aid, remittances, labour force growth, investment and savings, net foreign debt, migration, tax revenues, public expenditure on education and literacy. We estimate dynamic equations of all these variables using dynamic panel data methods for a panel of countries with per capita income below $1200 (2000). The estimated equations are then integrated to a dynamic system of thirteen equations for thirteen variables that allows for highly non-linear baseline simulations for these open economies. Then we analyze the effects of transitional shocks as predicted by the international organizations for the OECD and world growth for 2008 and 2009. Whereas growth rates return to the baseline scenario until 2013 with overshooting for China and Australia, the level of the GDP per capita shows permanent effects, which are positive only for China. In the poor countries, investment, remittances, savings, tax revenues, public expenditure on education, all as a share of GDP as well as literacy and the GDP per capita, are reduced compared to the baseline until 2087 where our analysis ends. Investment, emigration and labour force growth start returning to baseline values between 2013 and 2017. GDP per capita and tax revenues start returning to baseline around 2040. Education variables do not return to baseline without additional effort.     

Returns to Education and Skills in the Labor Market: Evidence from Japan and Korea

This study investigates the determinants of skill proficiency, and the impact of adult skills on earnings, in Japan and Korea. Using the Program for the International Assessment of Adult Competencies survey data, it shows that Japanese adults perform better than Korean respondents, on average, on skill proficiency tests. A decomposition analysis shows that the score gap in literacy, numeracy, and problem solving skills between the two countries is mostly due to different returns to individual characteristics such as upper‐secondary and tertiary education. Adult skills have a positive and significant impact on individual earnings and employment probability, in both countries. In Japan, the returns to literacy, numeracy, and problem‐solving skills increase significantly with experience, and tend to fall with formal education, suggesting employer learning or human capital accumulation through career progression. In contrast, in Korea, the returns to literacy and numeracy skills do not seem to increase with experience.     

Using a Microeconometric Model of Household Labour Supply to Design Optimal Income Taxes*

With regards to empirical applications of optimal taxation theory, analytical expressions are typically adopted for optimal taxes, and then numerical values are imputed to their parameters by calibration or by using previous estimates. We aim to avoid the restrictive assumptions and possible inconsistencies of this approach. In contrast, we identify optimal taxes by iteratively running a microeconometric model, based on 1994 Norwegian data, until a given social welfare function is maximized, given the public budget constraint. The optimal rules envisage monotonically increasing marginal rates (negative on very low incomes) and – compared to the current rule – a lower average rate, lower marginal rates on low incomes, and higher marginal rates on very high incomes.     

Income comparisons and attitudes towards foreigners - Evidence from a natural experiment

We exploit a natural experiment related to the German re-unification to address whether disutility from income comparisons affects attitudes towards foreigners. Our empirical approach rests upon East German individuals with West German relatives and friends. We use the exogenous variation of wealth of West Germans shortly after the fall of the Berlin Wall as an instrument to identify the effect of disutility from income comparisons on East Germans’ attitudes. We find robust evidence that East Germans express more negative attitudes towards foreigners, particularly from low-wage countries, if they worry about their economic status compared to better-off West Germans.     

Temporary Disability Insurance and Labor Supply: Evidence from a Natural Experiment*

Most developed countries have compulsory insurance programs for temporary disability, that is, cash benefits for non‐work‐related sickness. Despite the economic significance of these programs, little is known about their effects on work absenteeism or labor supply. We exploit a policy reform that consisted of the abolishment of a waiting day together with an increase of cash benefits for short sick leaves. We find that the total number of days of sickness absence was reduced by the reform, which is likely due to the fact that the abolishment of the waiting period made it less costly for workers to be absent for short periods.     

Long-run costs of piecemeal reform: Wage inequality and returns to education in Vietnam

In this paper, we examine changes in wage structure and wage premia during Vietnam’s transition from command to market economy. Relative to other work in this literature, our paper is unique in that we identify the policies that lead to such changes. By examining skill premium trends along the two dimensions of particular importance to the transition—state or non-state firms, and traded or non-traded industries—we are able to separate the contribution of external liberalization to wage growth and rising skill premia from that of domestic labor market reforms, and to examine potential interactions between the two types of reform. The results point to the high cost of incomplete reform in Vietnam. Capital market segmentation creates a two-track market for skills, in which state sector workers earn high salaries while non-state workers face lower demand and lower compensation. Growth is reduced directly by diminished allocative efficiency and reduced incentives to acquire education, and indirectly by higher wage inequality and rents for workers with access to state jobs.     

Inflation Adjustment and Labour Market Structures: Evidence from a Multi‐country Study*

The impact of labour market structures on the response of inflation to macroeconomic shocks is analysed empirically. Results based on a 20‐country panel show that if labour market coordination is high, the effect on inflation of movements in unemployment, import prices, tax rates and productivity is dampened, both on impact and dynamically. In contrast, monopoly power in labour supply, measured by the percentage unionisation of the workforce, appears to amplify the response of inflation to its reduced‐form determinants. These findings are attributed to the behaviour of wages following movements in demand‐ and supply‐side conditions.