The frequency of wars1

Wars are increasingly frequent, and the trend has been steadily upward since 1870. The main tradition of western political and philosophical thought suggests that extensive economic globalization and democratization over this period should have reduced appetites for war far below their current level. This view is clearly incomplete: at best, confounding factors are at work. Here, we explore the capacity to wage war. Most fundamentally, the growing number of sovereign states has been closely associated with the spread of democracy and increasing commercial openness, as well as the number of bilateral conflicts. Trade and democracy are traditionally thought of as goods, both in themselves, and because they reduce the willingness to go to war, given the national capacity to do so, but the same factors may also have been increasing the capacity for war, and thus its frequency.     

Adult vocational training and government policy in France and Britain

Provision of continuing vocational training is subject to severalmarket failures: capital-market imperfections (credit constraints),risk arising from variability of future values of skills, mismatchof costs and returns owing to worker mobility, and general positiveexternalities of human capital. In the light of these marketimperfections we evaluate the contrasting French and Britishsystems of adult training. French policy is interventionistand includes an employer training levy. British policy has abandonedlevies and emphasizes individual initiatives by workers andemployers. Despite contrasting policies, the character of trainingprovision is similar in both countries, being mainly arrangedand financed by employers. Differences are that the French systemoffers both higher public subsidy and cost-sharing between trainingand non-training employers. Training provision is higher inFrance and occurs earlier in the working life-cycle. We concludeBritish policy could usefully reconsider employer levies forsolving training under-investment.     

Macroeconomic impact of monetary policy shocks: Evidence from recent experience in Thailand

This paper investigates the monetary transmission mechanism in Thailand, employing a VAR approach. It is found that the Bank of Thailand has leverage over the real interest rate in the short run due to inflation inertia. It is also found that the Thai monetary transmission mechanism has important international dimensions. More specifically, monetary contraction has stronger negative effects on import demand in the short run even though import prices fall.     

Macroeconomic policy and output comovement: The formal and informal sectors in India

Is the informal sector different from the formal sector? We present an aggregative analysis of the formal and informal sectors in India to investigate the extent to which the two can be viewed as broadly homogeneous. Using a macroeconometric framework, the paper analyzes over past three decades the behavior of the two sectors with respect to each other and several government-related policy variables. It is found that the formal and informal sectors display markedly different attributes in terms of their relationship to policy variables. Furthermore, the informal sector appears to be decoupled from the rest of the economy.     

试析英国“青年新政”计划

青年人的失业问题一直是困扰世界各国的严重社会问题,英国政府自1998年后大力推行了旨在降低青年失业率、促进青年人就业的“青年新政”计划,不仅在就业领域取得了显著的成效,还对国民经济的发展起到了重要的推动作用,获得了较好的经济效益与社会效益。     

Macroeconomic factors of growth of Russian cities and town planning policy objectives

This paper was prepared for the 70th birthday of Oleg Sergeevich Pchelintsev, but he did not live to see it in print. For memorials of O.S. Pchelintsev, see www.demoscope.ru Nos 243–244 of April 17–30, 2006. The paper analyzes the channels and ways by which macroeconomic policy impacts the development of urban settlement and individual groups of cities. Its findings are used to validate new directions and measures of urban policy     

Reversal of fortune: Macroeconomic policy, International Finance, and Banking in Japan

This essay provides an introduction and overview for a symposium on macroeconomic policy, international finance and banking in Japan. The symposium consists of thirteen papers. Nine of the papers including most of those on macroeconomic policy and international finance appear in this issue. The remaining papers including one on macroeconomic relations within the Asia-Pacific region and three on Japan's banking system will appear in a special section of the next issue of this journal.

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Macroeconomic policy,output, and inflation in the former Czechoslovakia: Some evidence from the VAR analysis

Both macroeconomic policy and structural adjustment factors influenced the dynamics of output and inflation in the former Czechoslovakia during the first phase of its transition from central planning to markets. The results of VAR analysis indicate that, following price liberalization, the impact of structural adjustment processes on the level of output was somewhat stronger than the impact of macroeconomic policy. Moreover, it seems likely that a "looser" macroeconomic policy—advocated by many as a countermeasure to a large decline in industrial production—would only worsen the situation, bringing both higher inflation and a larger decline in industrial production.     

Macroeconomic policy, wage setting, and employment - what difference does the EMU make?

The likely impact of the EMU on the variability and level ofemployment is analysed. The major conclusions are as follows.(i) Although an inflation-target regime will constrain monetarypolicy of a non-participant in the EMU, it still leaves considerablescope for exchange-rate changes in the case of country-specificdemand shocks, provided that there is some nominal price andwage flexibility. (ii) Variations in payroll taxes can be usedas a substitute for exchange-rate changes in the EMU, but itwill be an imperfect substitute. (iii) Money-wage flexibilityis likely to be larger inside than outside the EMU, but probablynot by much. (iv) There are various mechanisms through whichthe EMU may affect the incentives for labour-market reform toreduce equilibrium unemployment, but the net impact is highlyuncertain.     

我国要素市场扭曲与经济失衡之间的互动关系研究

文章研究了劳动力、资本、能源三种生产要素价格扭曲与经济失衡之间的互动关系.为实现研究目标,建立了超越对数生产函数,估算改革开放以来我国劳动力、资本、能源三种生产要素价格的绝对和相对扭曲程度.继而建立VAR模型,考察各内生变量之间的脉冲响应关系.研究表明:要素价格扭曲和宏观经济失衡之间存在相互强化的互动关系.应从调整供给结构、增加政府民生支出、改革要素价格形成机制、提高生产效率等多方面着手,实现宏观经济再平衡.     

Macroeconomic stabilization through monetary and fiscal policy coordination: Implications for European Monetary Union

In a two-country model, we consider the implications of monetary and fiscal policy coordination for macroeconomic stabilization. We show that the optimal regime is one of monetary and fiscal policy coordination under flexible exchange rates. In the context of the European Community, this suggests that the desire to fix exchange rates may not be costless. In addition, we show that fiscal coordination requires a relatively high degree of flexibility in fiscal policy. This result suggests that limits on the flexibility of fiscal policies, as suggested in the Delors Report, may hinder macroeconomic stabilization.