OIL CURSE AND INSTITUTIONAL CHANGES: WHICH INSTITUTIONS ARE MOST VULNERABLE TO THE CURSE AND UNDER WHAT CIRCUMSTANCES?

This article extends recent analyses linking the alleged oil curse to a broader set of institutions (13 in number) than democracy, the institution that has received the most attention in the literature. It does so using panel data for over 100 countries between 1975 and 2005, wherever possible, and compares the effects obtained with several different measures of both the importance of oil and experience in the industry and of the interactions between them. Most importantly, instead of simply examining the effect of oil and experience in the industry on the contemporary levels of these various institutions, this study focuses on the effects on changes in the various institutional indicators from one decade to another. While not surprisingly our results reveal considerable sensitivity in the effects of oil resources, oil experience, and interactions across different specifications, they also suggest a number of important findings. The most robust of these are the significant negative effects of oil rents on bureaucratic quality and on socioeconomic conditions. We also find that the number of years since peak oil discovery has a positive effect on government stability, but a negative one on bureaucratic quality. When interactions are allowed for, still more negative effects on institutions are identified, at least partially re‐enforcing several of the institutional links in the oil curse hypothesis. (JEL O13, P16)     

INSTITUTIONAL CHANGES NOW AND BENEFITS TOMORROW: HOW SOON IS TOMORROW?

This paper investigates the timing of the impact of changes in checks and balances on macroeconomic efficiency in a panel of countries. Using Battese and Coelli's one-stage approach, we find that increasing checks and balances results in greater efficiency. Furthermore, the impact of institutional changes on efficiency is delayed, with a full effect showing after five to six years. This finding remains robust after distinguishing developed and developing countries, including country-fixed effects and using alternative functional forms of the production frontier and alternative measures of checks and balances. The relation is also robust to controlling for endogeneity.     

IS THERE A CURSE OF RELOCATION? ANALYSING THE CAUSAL LINK BETWEEN OFFSHORING AND THE INNOVATION PERFORMANCE OF (SMALL) FIRMS

We analyse the empirical link between offshoring activities and different dimensions of innovation performance at the firm‐level. In order to identify causal effects running from offshoring to innovation, we use a quasi‐experimental comparison group approach by means of (conditional) difference‐in‐difference estimations applied to German establishment‐level data for firms that conducted offshoring activities in the period 2007–13. We find that the international relocation of business functions has a negative impact on the firms’ propensity to be innovative in terms of product and process innovations as well as product improvements. While for larger firms the reduction in process innovations is most striking, potentially due to a lack of resources, stagnation in expertise and a reduction in intra‐organizational learning‐by‐doing associated with the relocation of some business activities, for small and medium‐sized enterprises we particularly observe a reduction in product innovations after the offshoring activity has taken place. When interpreting this ‘pessimistic’ picture on the link between offshoring and the innovation performance of firms, the reader should note that our findings for German establishments have to be assessed through the lens of a global economy in economic recession after 2008, which may have intensified the negative impact of offshoring on the firms’ innovation performance.     

BREST,EUROPEAN CAPITAL OFMARINE SCIENCES AND TECHNIQUES

WELCOMETOBREST,THEGATEWAYTOEUROPEBrest''AtthewesternmosttipofBrittany,thestrategic10cationofagustport,shetteredaconeoftheworldslovelietbays.BrestisthemainconurbationofwestemBrittany(220000inhabitants)andoftheFinistereregion(850000inhabi-tauts).Itoffersvariedlandscapes,livingresources,industrial,culturalandrecreationalactivities,withhighlydevelopedfacilitiesandorganisationsrelatedtothesea.AbitofhistoryFromthe17thcenturyonward,Brest'sexceptional10canoninadeepandprotectedbaygaveri…     

STRATEGIC TRADE AND DELEGATED COMPETITION WITH ENDOGENOUS QUALITY CHOICE: IS EXPORT POLICY NEEDED?

This paper introduces the relative‐performance contract into a vertically differentiated product market and examines how the optimal trade policy and quality choice respond to the incentive mechanism. We find that the high quality firm makes better use of the delegation than the low quality firm in a cross‐border decentralized model. The main difference between the present paper and the strategic trade theory literature is that in this paper the optimal policy is free trade, which does not depend on whether firms compete by prices or quantities, and on whether the goods are substitutes or full complements.     

WHERE IS THE MISSING CREDIT CARD DEBT? CLUES AND IMPLICATIONS

I create comparable estimates of aggregate credit card use based on household data from the Survey of Consumer Finances (SCF) and industry data. The two sources match up well on credit card charges and fairly well on account totals. But the SCF always yields much lower estimates of revolving debt. My estimated lower bound for the discrepancy in 2004 is half of the revolving credit card debt total implied by industry data. There is no obvious source for this remaining discrepancy and some evidence that the discrepancy has grown over time. Such growth is worrisome because it parallels substantial changes in credit card use and in the pool of credit card users, suggesting that the discrepancy could be driven by household underreporting that is correlated with unobserved heterogeneity. This correlation could confound inference on the relationship between credit card borrowing and outcomes of interest like household financial condition, consumption paths, and portfolio choice. Given this possibility it is critical to continue developing evidence on whether and why household surveys undercount credit card borrowing.     

WHEN IS FREQUENT FACE-TO-FACE CONTACT NECESSARY IN INNOVATION? A COMPARATIVE STUDY OF TWO DISTRIBUTED PRODUCT DEVELOPMENT PROJECTS

This paper combines the concept of technological modularity from the product-development literature with the concept of brokers from literature about communities of practice to explain why some innovation project teams require frequent face-to-face interactions to efficiently co-create new technologies, whereas others do not. The explanation is explored through a comparative case-study analysis of two distributed product-development projects in the European software and telecommunications industries. These case-study projects traversed several geographical sites in Norway, Germany, Greece, England and the Netherlands as well various communities of practice related to a number of distinct technological specialisations. The method involved participative observations and 40 in-depth interviews with key project members, managers and consultants.     

OLD‐AGE PENSION AND EXTENDED FAMILIES: HOW IS ADULT CHILDREN'S INTERNAL MIGRATION AFFECTED?

This article makes use of the most recent social pension reform in rural China to examine whether receipt of the pension payment equips adult children of pensioners to migrate. Employing a regression discontinuity (hereafter RD) design to a primary longitudinal survey, this article overcomes challenges in the literature that households eligible for pension payment might be systematically different from ineligible households and that it is difficult to separate the effect of pension from that of age or cohort heterogeneity. Around the pension eligibility age cutoff, results reveal large and significant increase among adult sons (but not daughters) to migrate out of their home county. Meanwhile, adult children are more likely to migrate out if their parents are healthy. Our Fuzzy RD estimations survive a standard set of key placebo tests and robustness checks. (JEL H55, I38 J14, J22)     

IS CORRUPTION REALLY PERSISTENT?

Theoretical and empirical research on corruption generally concludes that corruption is persistent. However, using International Country Risk Guide data for the period 1984–2008 for 101 countries, we find strong evidence that corruption changes over time. In the present study, corruption levels of many countries decline, whereas those of other countries rise over the same period. We find that this convergence process is not continuous: there is an improvement in world corruption in the first part of our sample period, but a worsening in the second half.     

WILL GERMAN BANKS EARN THEIR COST OF CAPITAL?

In recent years, the German banking sector has overcome major challenges such as the global financial crisis and the European debt crisis. This paper analyzes a recent development as a particular determinant of the future outlook for the German banking sector. Interest rates are at historically low levels and may remain at these levels for a considerable period of time. Such levels pose a specific challenge to banks which are heavily dependent on interest income, as is the case for most German banks. We consider different interest rate scenarios and analyze the extent to which they cause a further narrowing of the interest rate margin. Our results indicate that a projected decline in this margin will result in no more than 20% of German banks earning a cost of capital of 8% by the end of this decade. However, we show that this decline is alleviated by the fact that German banks can apply a special feature of German accounting standards by using hidden and open reserves. We discuss how these income smoothing tools will provide a cushion that supports short‐ and medium‐term adjustments through a buffer effect. (JEL G21, G28)     

IS WAL-MART TOO POWERFUL?

AtWal-Mart,“everydaylowprices”ismorethanaslogan;itisthefundamentaltenetofacultmas-queradingasacompany.Overtheyears,Wal-Marthasrelentlesslywrungtensofbillionsofdollarsincostefficienciesoutoftheretailsup-plychain,passingthelargerpartofthesavingsalongtosho…     

RETAKING IN HIGH STAKES EXAMS: IS LESS MORE?

Placement, both in university and in the civil service, according to performance in competitive exams is the norm in much of the world. Repeat taking of such exams is common despite the private and social costs it imposes. We develop and estimate a structural model of exam retaking using data from Turkey's university placement exam. Limiting retaking results in all agents gaining ex ante and most gaining ex post. This result comes from a general equilibrium effect: Retakers crowd the market and impose negative spillovers on others by raising acceptance cutoffs.     

GROWTH AND VARIABILITY OF SCHOOL DISTRICT INCOME TAX REVENUES: IS TAX BASE DIVERSIFICATION A GOOD IDEA FOR SCHOOL FINANCING?

School districts in Ohio have the option of diversifying their revenue base by adopting income taxes. Using a panel of Ohio school districts that adopted a local income tax from 1990 to 2008, we find that revenues are procyclical and fluctuate only mildly. The estimated short‐ and long‐run income elasticity of school district income tax revenues is 1.05 and 1.04, respectively. We also find that the school district tax base fully adjusts to its long‐run equilibrium within 2 years. Finally, we show that school district income tax adoption does not provide more stability to total school district tax revenues in the short or the long run. (JEL H71, H75)     

ENTREPRENEURSHIP AND INCOME DISTRIBUTION DYNAMICS: WHY IS THE INCOME SHARE OF TOP INCOME EARNERS ACYCLICAL OVER THE BUSINESS CYCLE?

In the United States, the income share of the top 5% income group is acyclical over the business cycle. This study attempts to explain the cyclical behavior of the income distribution over the business cycle, particularly focusing on the top 5% income earners' share, using a heterogeneous agent model featuring a choice to become an entrepreneur. The model economy successfully reproduces the acyclical behavior of the income share of the top 5%. During expansions, relatively more people become entrepreneurs at the top, which offsets the decline in the income share of the high‐income earners from workers' side.     

WHAT DRIVES THE TIME‐SERIES AND CROSS‐SECTIONAL VARIATIONS IN BANK CAPITAL RATIOS? EVIDENCE FROM JAPAN

This paper documents the time‐series and cross‐sectional variations in bank capital ratios and investigates their underlying driving forces using listed Japanese bank data from 1977 to 2009. We derive an overall framework in the form of a present‐value model to decompose the variation in bank capital ratios into changes in expected future stock returns, profitability and leverage ratios. Moreover, we use the variance decomposition approach to examine the relative importance of these factors. We find that the expected future stock returns dominate the time‐series variation in bank capital ratios, and that the expected future profitability also plays an important role as the expected stock returns in the cross‐sectional variation.     

BANKING UNION IN EUROPE: HOW MUCH CENTRALISATION IS NEEDED?

We examine the efficiency of banking regulation in a federation with two tiers of government and highly integrated banking systems. We assume that policy makers have incomplete information about banks’ true health, and banking sector turmoil can generate cross‐border spill‐over effects. We show that, in such an environment, the decentralisation of policy responsibilities for the regulation of banks can achieve the first‐best allocation and ensure financial stability. While national governments design banking regulations, the federal policy maker authorises inter‐regional income redistribution payments throughout the federation. Our results suggest that strengthening national responsibilities in banking regulation and supervision in the course of the further development of the European banking union may be advisable.     

U.S. EXTERNAL ADJUSTMENT: IS IT DISORDERLY? IS IT UNIQUE? WILL IT DISRUPT THE REST OF THE WORLD?

This article focuses on the historical experience with U.S. external adjustment, that is, narrowings of the trade deficit. Using data from the past 35 years, we compare economic performance in episodes during which the U.S. trade balance declined against episodes during which it rose. We find that trade balance adjustment has been generally benign: U.S. real gross domestic product growth tended to fall but not to a statistically significant extent; housing construction slumped; inflation generally rose modestly; and although nominal interest rates tended to rise, real interest rates fell. The article then compares these outcomes to those in foreign industrial economies. We find that the economic performance of the United States during periods of external adjustment is remarkably similar to the foreign experience. Finally, we also examine the performance of the foreign industrial economies during the periods when the U.S. trade deficit widened and narrowed. Contrary to concerns that U.S. adjustment will prove injurious to foreign economies, our analysis suggests that the foreign economies fared reasonably well during past periods when the U.S. trade deficit narrowed. ( JEL F32, F41)     

SPORTS,EXERCISE, AND LENGTH OF STAY IN HOSPITALS: IS THERE A DIFFERENTIAL EFFECT FOR THE CHRONICALLY ILL PEOPLE?

This paper examines the effects of sports and exercise on hospital stays for males and females by various chronic conditions using a panel dataset from Canada. The results suggest that moderately active and active individuals have shorter hospital stays than inactive individuals. On average, individuals with moderate to higher amount of physical activity stay 36% to 39% less than inactive individuals. Physical activity has consistent impact on hospital stays for the entire population as well as subgroup of people with or without chronic conditions. However, its effect is substantially larger for people with chronic conditions, especially for those who have diabetes, cancer, high blood pressure, heart disease, and stroke. The paper also suggests that additional exercise once moderate level of exercise is achieved does not generate substantially large benefits in the form of shorter hospital stays. Hence, it provides additional evidence to support the recent physical activity guidelines for adults that highlight health benefits of moderate amount of regular physical activity. (JEL I1)     

GLOBALIZATION AND WOMEN'S PAID WORK: EXPANDING FREEDOM?

In Development as Freedom , Amartya Sen takes expanding freedom to be the primary end and the principal means of development. I discuss his emphasis on women's agency as central to development theory and practice and the strategies he advocates for enhancing it. Recent work in feminist economics and postcolonial studies tests Sen's complex account of freedom. Further levels of complexity need to be added when we examine how global forces of power interact with local systems of oppression in ways that often limit women's freedom. This argument rests on an analysis of how globalization affects a domain of freedom that is a central concern for Sen, that of increasing women's freedom to work outside the home as a way of strengthening their agency. Attending to elements missing in Sen's account will enhance freedom in women's lives.