Business Cycle Properties of the Legitimate and Underground Economy in Australia

The business cycle characteristics of the legitimate economy have been examined quite extensively. In this paper we extend the standard business cycle analysis to the underground economy and compare it to the legitimate economy. Using National Bureau of Economic Research dating methodologies we find that classical cycles exhibit strong incidence of asymmetry while growth cycles appear relatively symmetric. We find that changes in legitimate activity lead to changes in underground activity but that the underground economy responds more to negative shocks in legitimate activity than to positive shocks. This implies that the underground economy is deepening economic downturns and increasing the volatility of the business cycle in general.     

Business Cycle Synchronization in EU: A Time‐Varying Approach

This article investigates the time‐varying correlation between the EU12‐wide business cycle and the initial EU12 member‐countries based on Scalar‐BEKK and multivariate Riskmetrics model frameworks for the period 1980–2012. The paper provides evidence that changes in the business cycle synchronization correspond to major economic events that have taken place at a European level. In the main, business cycle synchronization until 2007 had moved in a direction positive for the operation of a single currency, suggesting that the common monetary policy was less costly in terms of lost flexibility at the national level. However, as a result of the Great Recession of 2007 and the subsequent Eurozone Crisis, a number of periphery countries, most notably Greece, have experienced desynchronization of their business cycles with the EU12‐wide cycle. Nevertheless, for most countries, any questions regarding the optimality and sustainability of the common currency area in Europe should not be attributed to a lack of cyclical synchronization.     

经济周期协动性的影响因素分析——基于中国与其东亚贸易伙伴的实证研究

影响中国(大陆)与其贸易伙伴之间的经济周期协动性变化的因素主要包括双边贸易强度、产业内贸易、外国直接投资、金融开放度、产业结构相似度、财政政策协调、货币政策协调、汇率政策等。运用混合最小二乘法对1992-2009年中国(大陆)及其贸易伙伴共14个国家和地区的面板数据进行实证分析,结果显示:中国与其他亚洲经济体的协动性主要受到产业内贸易强度和产业结构相似度这两个因素的影响。因此,政府应该有针对性地调整相关政策以更好地应对外部冲击。     

FDI流量变化与世界经济周期的相关性分析

经济周期影响一切经济活动，以跨国公司为主体的FDI也必然受经济周期的影响。本文以实证方式利用世界FDI和世界GDP增长率的历史数据分析了FDI与经济周期的相关性，并作了相应解释。     

Inventories and the Business Cycle*

This paper examines the relationship between the inventory cy and the business cycle using both macroeconomic and survey da It is argued that over the past decade and a half, the changes inventory management have reduced the amplitude of the inventc cycle. The paper also argues that the behaviour of inventories consistent with demand shocks being an important source of business cycle fluctuations.     

Foreign Aid and the Business Cycle

This paper documents empirical regularities in the foreign aid flows to developing countries over three decades. In spite of a large body of literature on foreign aid and its impact on recipients, surprisingly little is known about its business cycle characteristics. The authors show that for the vast majority of African recipients, aid flows are a major source of income that is highly volatile and, most importantly, overwhelmingly procyclical. For recipients outside of Africa, there is a similar—if somewhat less pronounced—pattern of aid procyclicality. In contrast, there is little evidence of aid procyclicality with the business cycle of donors. In light of the very high volatility of output in developing countries, the procyclicality of foreign aid flows from the recipients' perspective raises serious questions related to their welfare and growth.     

我国财政政策作用机制与经济周期波动的相关性研究

我国积极财政政策在总需求管理过程中起到了重要作用.通过判断我国财政政策工具和财政政策规模与经济周期波动之间的关联,描述结构VAR模型中财政政策的作用和反馈过程,我们发现我国积极财政政策操作过程中体现出了一定程度的相机选择性和对经济周期阶段的依赖性,这意味着在我国经济增长已经出现"软扩张"的经济周期态势下,应当适当调整财政政策的期限结构和政策工具,加强货币政策的组合作用,继续保持积极财政政策对国内产出的作用方向.     

东亚货币合作问题及实现途径研究

本文从经济政策协调与监督、区域融资便利和紧急救援机制、东亚汇率制度安排和区域内单一货币四个层面,深刻分析东亚货币合作的理论动因、新进展、制约因素及实现途径,认为东亚各国只有加强区域内各国信息沟通与政策协调、建立区域性紧急融资救援管理机构、构建东亚汇率合作机制和区域内单一货币,才能有效地进行东亚货币合作,最终实现东亚货币合作的目标。     

Economic growth and unemployment in East Asia

Barro and Sala-i-Martin （2004） analyzed the empirical determinants of growth. The data used in this paper consists of panel data of several macroeconomic variables observed for 55 years 0950-2004） in six East Asian countries and regions. Following the implications of semi-endogenous growth theory, the author regressed output growth on the determinants of steady-state income. The estimation and test results suggest the existence of significant relationship between steady-state income and （trend weighted） R ＆ D input both in Japan and South Korea. In addition, following Cellini （1995）, the author also considers cointegration and error-correction methods as the growth regression of East Asian countries. Meanwhile, Chang, et al （2004） derived the conclusion that the decreases in reallocation shocks are main factor in a downward trend in natural rate of unemployment for South Korea. The author extends this analysis using structural VAR to other Asian countries and regions, Japan and Taiwan region. Impulse responses show that the growth of production in Korea and Taiwan reduce unemployment, but, in Japan, this raises unemployment.     

Unorthodox Ownership and Governance Structures in East Asia

MOCT-MOST: Economic Policy in Transitional Economies -     

Optimal Subsidization of Business Start‐Ups

This paper studies efficient allocation of resources in an economy in which agents are initially heterogeneous with regard to their wealth levels and whether they have productive ideas or not. An agent with an idea can start a business that generates random returns. Agents have private information about (1) their initial types, (2) how they allocate their resources between consumption and investment, and (3) the realized returns. I show that, under informational frictions, a society that targets productive efficiency should subsidize poor agents with ideas, and choose the amount and timing of subsidies carefully in order to ensure that other agents do not mimic poor agents with ideas and receive subsidies. Then, I provide an implementation of the start‐up subsidies in a market framework that resembles the U.S. Small Business Administration's Business Loan Program.     

技术冲击与中国经济周期波动

本文基于一个较为一般的动态一般均衡框架,从理论上探讨了技术冲击的长期影响。以此为基础,我们使用SVAR方法识别出导致中国经济周期波动的技术冲击,并且估计了它们对产出和通胀的动态影响,以及对二者波动的贡献率。结果发现,技术冲击虽然是中国经济周期波动的主要成因,但其贡献要远小于现有的其他实证结果。     

Australia's Engagement with Asia, 1990–2010

Asia has emerged as an industrial powerhouse. Australia has a once‐in‐a‐generation opportunity to position itself at the vanguard of a significant change in the global economic architecture. In this article, we examine the dynamics of Australian–Asian relations using a unique multi‐indicator index of ‘engagement’ which incorporates components of trade, investment, education, tourism, research and business development, migration and humanitarian assistance. Our analysis suggests that engagement between Australia and Asia has grown at a much faster rate since 1990 than that between Australia and the rest of the world.     

政府换届、经济政策与政治经济周期

在梳理政治经济周期理论的基础上,比较中西方国家该理论前提、内在逻辑的差异,并从实际出发提出相关命题,建立计量模型,运用中国1953年～2008年的年度数据进行实证研究.结果表明,"两会"召开周期 (中央政府换届)与经济波动周期之间存在较显著的相关性;中央政府换届导致地方政府交流周期,政绩考核晋升机制使地方政府产生纵向、横向上的竞争,并形成周期性的经济发展举措,进而加大了对经济周期的影响;中央政府政治周期使财政政策、货币政策具有一定的顺周期特征,地方政府通过财政项目竞争、软预算约束以及货币信贷倒逼机制,扩大了财政政策、货币政策的顺周期性;在受到国际经济危机异常冲击时,我国财政政策、货币政策表现出平稳经济波动的特征.     

经济周期定期方法与研究进展

经济波动一直是宏观经济分析与预测中的经典问题,而经济周期拐点的及时识别对政府前瞻性经济政策的制定和企业投资经营战略的调整具有重要意义。鉴于我国目前尚没有权威机构对经济周期进行实时监测和发布,因而在划分经济周期和拐点识别时,往往局限于一种方法,不同方法有效性的比较缺乏一个基准参考。文章对国内外研究经济周期及其周期拐点定期的方法进行梳理和分析,依据经济周期定期方法的研究脉络,对主流的方法进行评述,并对我国经济周期定期进行展望,希望能在分析中国宏观经济波动特征和经济走势预测方面提供一些方法论参考和借鉴。     

实际经济周期理论及其对中国的启发

基德兰德与普雷斯科特共同开创的实际经济周期理论(RBC理论)获得2004年诺贝尔经济学奖.RBC理论无论其理论本身还是思想方法都对传统理论提出了严峻的挑战,不但改变了宏观经济学的发展方向,也影响了一些国家宏观经济政策的制定.在从经济波动的根源、传导机制、理论模型、政策含义及其所采用的分析方法等方面概述了该理论的主要内容,并在总需求总供给模型框架下将RBC理论与其他宏观经济理论做出了相应比较,最后指出RBC理论在经济周期研究和制定稳定经济政策等方面对我国的启发.