Endogenous Financial and Trade Openness

The authors study the endogenous determination of financial and trade openness. They construct a theoretical framework leading to two-way feedbacks between financial and trade openness and identify these feedbacks empirically. They find that one standard deviation increase in commercial openness is associated with a 9.5% increase in de facto financial openness (% of GDP). Similarly, an increase in de facto financial openness has powerful effects on future trade openness. De jure restrictions on capital mobility have only a weak impact on de facto financial openness, while de jure restrictions on the current account have a large adverse effect on commercial openness. The authors investigate the relative magnitudes of these directions of causality using Geweke's (1982 ) decomposition methodology. They conclude that in an era of rapidly growing trade integration, countries cannot choose financial openness independently of their degree of openness to trade. Dealing with greater exposure to turbulence by imposing restrictions on financial flows is likely to be ineffectual.     

金融开放的测度

现有文献对干金融开放的测度主要从资本账户开放和金融市场开放两个层面展开。资本账户开放测度一直是金融开放测度的重点,其包括两个方法,基于资本跨境交易法律法规等限制措施的名义测度和基于实际资本流动的事实测度,其以各国政府为中心,侧重于金融开放的宏观层面;金融市场开放测度主要衡量金融服务部门的对内和对外开放水平,也可以分为名义承诺开放水平和实际开放水平,其以金融市场和金融中介为中心,侧重于金融开放的微观层面。在金融开放的实际测度中,应结合两种测度方法以求反映金融开放的全貌。     

Financial Openness in Turkey

The purpose of this paper is to analyse the effects of financial liberalization on the financial and real sectors of the Turkish economy. The process of liberalization began over 15 years ago simultaneously with a stabilization programme that had been designed according to neoclassical model. The implementation addressed first foreign trade, then the domestic financial market and finally foreign capital movements. Contrary to theoretical expectations, the opening of the capital account induced adverse effects on financial intermediation, savings, investment, growth and foreign debt.     

我国金融开放和贸易开放的互动渠道研究

将新贸易理论的技术效应、规模经济、产业转移一起视为我国现阶段贸易开放和金融开放的互动渠道,计量发现仅有产业转移渠道在我国的贸易开放和金融开放的互动中起到显著正向作用;规模效应仅与贸易开放有显著正向互动;技术效应则仅与贸易开放存在反向互动,亦不能担当两者互动的中介作用。基于结构向量自回归的方差分解发现产业转移在贸易开放和金融开放的方差波动的解释能力中都占据重要地位,大于技术效应和规模效益之和。     

发展中国家金融开放与我国金融安全思考

在经济金融全球化不断发展背景下．通过对新加坡、墨西哥和泰国金融开放实践的比较分析，从中得到一定的经验和教训，从经济学视角解释了金融开放的影响，面对中国金融业的国际开放，我国既要抓住金融发展的大好机遇。加快金融的国际化发展增强金融竞争内，同时需要严格金融监管防范金融风险。     

Financial Openness,Aggregate Consumption and Threshold Effects

We analyse the influence of financial openness on the level of aggregate consumption, a research question that has been left surprisingly unexplored by the previous literature. We construct a complete and balanced panel data set of 88 countries for the period 1980–2010, and then differentiate between four groups of countries. Models for non‐stationary heterogeneous panels, as well as panel threshold regression models, are used to estimate the determinants of aggregate consumption. The core finding of the paper is that the financial openness effect on consumption changes in the course of economic development, with the level or per capita income acting as a threshold which is consistently estimated within the model. The openness effect is non‐homogeneous across groups, stronger for low levels of per capita income and diminishes as income rises. These findings provide new insights into the welfare effect of financial liberalization.     

Capital Openness and Financial Crises: A Financial Contagion Model with Multiple Equilibria

Abstract

This paper explores the effects of capital openness on financial crises and contagion. In the model, we analyze four channels of contagion involved in the process of financial crisis: monsoon effects, spillovers, self‐fulfilling expectations and new information. We empirically test the data from China, an economy with capital account controls, and find that the fundamentals of China (PRC) are now in a vulnerable area which yields multiple equilibria. Consequently, the Chinese economy is easily affected via the channels discussed in this paper. Finally we suggest that the capital account of China should be opened gradually.     

财政分配要增加透明度

一、我国现行财政分配的公开性与透明性分析长期以来，我国财政实行集权机制下的隐性分配机制，即财政分配由政府说了算，有关预算分配情况被视为机密资料，公众没有知情权。政府认为财政分配无需公开、透明，社会公众也没有公开、透明的要求。实行市场化改革后，政府财政的“幕后”分配逐渐被摆到了明处，财政参与分力，集中多少，怎样分配才能符合社会公众的利益，越来越受到市场力量的约束，而不是一切由政府说了算。同时，公众要求政府财政分配公开透明的呼声也日益高涨。但总的来说，这种变化是一个不自觉的过程，财政分配必须公开、透…     

Internationalization of the RMB,Capital Market Openness and Financial Reforms in China

This paper provides an overview of Chinese financial and trade integration in recent decades, and the challenges facing China in the coming years. China had been a prime example of export‐led growth, benefiting from learning by doing, and by adopting foreign know‐how, supported by a complex industrial policy. While the resultant growth has been spectacular, it comes with hidden but growing costs and distortions. The Chinese export‐led growth path has been challenged by its own success, and the global financial crisis forced China toward rebalancing, which is a work in progress. Reflecting on the internationalization of the CNY, rapid acceleration of the commercial internationalization of the CNY is expected. In contrast, there are no clear‐cut reasons to rush with the full CNY financial internationalization: the gains from CNY financial internationalization are overrated.     

我国金融服务贸易竞争力和开放度的关系研究

随着改革开放的不断深入,服务行业的国际化正成为我国改革和开放的重点,金融服务业也在开放的同时面临着竞争和挑战。本文通过对金融服务贸易竞争力的计算、金融服务贸易开放度的计算以及二者之间关系进行实证分析的基础上,研究在开放环境下我国金融服务贸易的竞争力状况,以及金融服务贸易的开放对我国金融服务业竞争力的影响。     

金融开放测度方法与指标体系述评

作为衡量一国金融开放程度的定量化指标,金融开放度的构建或选取是研究所有金融开放问题的基础性问题。合理、有效的测度指标有助于准确把握一国金融开放的实际情况,更是后续的理论研究和实证分析的基础。本文从金融开放的名义测度和实际测度两个视角出发,追踪溯源,对国内外若干具有较大影响力的金融开放测度方法和指标体系进行了梳理。通过对其各自优缺点和适用性的探讨,本文发现,由于出发点和侧重点的不同,以及受理论、方法或数据等因素的制约,各金融开放测度指标都有其独特的适用性和不足之处,但总体而言,名义开放度指标和实际开放度指标又有其固有的内在机理和特性。针对几种主要的名义开放度指标的优缺点,本文尝试性地提出了一种指标改进方案,以期对后续研究有所启发。     

Emigrants' remittances and Dutch Disease in Cape Verde

Abstract

Emigrants' remittances have increased rapidly over the past two decades. While earlier studies have focused on their microeconomic effect on incomes and poverty in recipient countries, the present study concentrates on the macroeconomic impact of remittances on the real exchange rate in Cape Verde. A main conclusion is that remittances give rise to a sort of Dutch Disease effect and thereby have an adverse effect on the competitiveness of the tradable sector. The magnitude of this effect in Cape Verde is not that large, however. The changing orientation of official aid to more growth-oriented aid, combined with a more export-oriented domestic policy, has contributed to limiting the adverse impact of emigrants' remittances on the competitiveness of the Cape Verdean economy.     

资源诅咒传导机制之“荷兰病”——理论模型与实证研究

荷兰病指一个国家或地区的资源产业突然繁荣往往会通过要素、产品和货币市场的一系列反应挤出当地制造业,使之逐渐衰退,或者难以起步,它是典型的资源诅咒传导机制之一。本文首先简单介绍了荷兰病产生的原因和危害,然后借助模型分析详细解释其背后的原理,继而通过实证和案例分析说明在我国,荷兰病具有相当的普遍性,并且不同于荷兰、挪威等发达国家,我国荷兰病的主要症结在于挤出制造业固定资产投资,而非提高劳动力雇佣成本。最后,以现实为基础提出如何改变我国资源富集地区产业单一化和初级化的政策建议,目的在于充分发挥这些地区的资源优势,缩小东西部差距。     

中国式“荷兰病”与中国区域经济发展

文章从实证角度深入探讨了中国式"荷兰病"通过"支出效应"、"资源转移效应"和"人民币汇率效应"等渠道,对中国区域经济发展特别是对西部大开发的影响.文章建议适时扩大人民币汇率浮动区间,加大中央政府对中西部地区在政策和资金等方面的支持力度,以及鼓励中西部内陆地区更积极主动地改善投资环境和培育优势产业,从而减少中国式"荷兰病"对中国区域经济发展的不利影响,促进我国区域经济的协调发展.     

金融开放对中国银行业绩效的影响研究

文章以中国40家具有代表性的商业银行作为研究样本,从金融业开放对商业银行绩效影响的角度进行实证分析.结果 发现,金融业开放对银行业绩效有正向的促进作用,但由于实际开放度远远不够,容易引起商业银行经营效率下降,导致法定金融开放度的促进作用大于事实开放度,并且金融开放对于国有银行经营绩效的促进作用要大于股份制商业银行和城商行.因此,应加快金融业开放进程,根据实际经济发展水平,提高事实开放度与官方承诺水平的协调性,同时要加强金融监管水平,防止发生系统性金融风险.     

金融开放对中国银行业绩效的影响研究

文章以中国40家具有代表性的商业银行作为研究样本,从金融业开放对商业银行绩效影响的角度进行实证分析.结果 发现,金融业开放对银行业绩效有正向的促进作用,但由于实际开放度远远不够,容易引起商业银行经营效率下降,导致法定金融开放度的促进作用大于事实开放度,并且金融开放对于国有银行经营绩效的促进作用要大于股份制商业银行和城商行.因此,应加快金融业开放进程,根据实际经济发展水平,提高事实开放度与官方承诺水平的协调性,同时要加强金融监管水平,防止发生系统性金融风险.     

Remittances and the Dutch Disease: Evidence from the Republic of Moldova

This paper analyzes the linkage between exports, real effective exchange rates, and workers’ remittances in the Republic of Moldova based on impulse response functions through a vector autoregressive model. We find that an inflow of remittances leads to an appreciation of real exchange rate and a decline of exports, but the magnitude is small. Another finding is that the exchange rate appreciation does not affect remittance transfers for the first three-quarters.     

Early Warning for Currency Crises: What Is the Role of Financial Openness?

The paper explores whether financial openness—capital account openness and gross capital inflows—makes countries vulnerable to currency crises. A quarterly dataset on 46 advanced and emerging market economies (AEs and EMEs) during 1975Q1–2011Q4 is used, with the period after Q2 2007 used for out‐of‐sample testing. The key findings are: (1) capital account openness is associated with lower probability of currency crises, but less so for EMEs; (2) surges in gross capital flows are associated with increased risk of currency crises; and (3) the model performs well out‐of‐sample, confirming that early warning models are helpful in judging relative vulnerability.     

Dutch Disease in the Labor Market: Women, Services, and Industrialization

The light manufacturing export industries have been a springboard for sustained growth in many newly industrializing countries. Women have played an important role in those industries. The author presents a theory linking women's work and industrialization. The theory fits the observation that, in low-growth developing countries, women work mostly in household services, while, in higher-growth developing countries, women work in manufacturing. In the model, the existence of a services equilibrium or an industrialization equilibrium, or multiple equilibria, depends on an economy's endowment of land relative to labor.