房产基建类企业贷款的现状与风险

近年来,中央定调稳定住房消费,多轮金融信贷政策发力改善市场环境,各地也因地制宜出台了一系列宽松政策,促进需求入市。数据表明,2016年上半年93家上市房地产与基建类企业共实现营收4 687.57亿元,相比2015年同期的3 436.48亿元增加36.41%,净利润率合计下降11.6%。在国内房地产行业以及基建行业营收有所回暖、但是净利润率则有明显回落的情况下,银行向两行业贷款余额却逆市上升,因此银行业在应对快速增长的资金需求同时也面临着潜在的系统性风险,文章对房产基建类企业贷款的现状与风险进行了研究。     

我国房地产行业IPO发行抑价对比分析

本文以上市的IPO公司为样本,对比房地产行业和所有行业的一级市场抑价现象,同时将公司规模、公司年龄、市盈率作为解释变量对比解释结果发现,房地产行业抑价情况相较于所有行业较轻,对于公司规模、公司年龄等变量较敏感。     

Monetary policy and real estate prices: a disaggregated analysis for Switzerland

Most empirical studies found that monetary policy has a significant effect on house prices while stock markets remain unaffected by interest rate shocks. In this paper we conduct a more detailed analysis by studying various sub-segments of the real estate market. Employing a new dataset for Switzerland we estimate vector autoregressive models and find positive interest rate shocks to have adverse effects on house and condominium prices on the one hand and rental prices on the other. Commercial property prices as stock markets do not react on interest rate variations.     

是土地供应量与房地产税赋提高了房价吗

自分税制实施后,“土地财政”成为我国地方政府获取收入以支撑财政支出的主要选择,而与此同时房价也在不断上涨。中央政府从民生角度要求地方政府对房价实施调控,地方政府则主要通过调整土地供给量和房地产税税赋来施加影响。土地供应量和税赋会影响供需双方从而影响房价,反过来房价又会影响税收收入及开发商对土地的需求,进而影响社会民生。本文对我国东、中、西部地区住房价格和土地供给量、房地产税税赋之间的关系进行分析,探讨各地区的住房价格上涨原因。通过构建住房价格和土地供给量、房地产税税赋之间的PVAR模型,利用格兰杰因果检验、脉冲分析和方差分解方法来透视地方政府行为对住房价格的影响。分析结果显示,地方政府行为和房价之间存在着联动关系,但在推动住房价格上涨的原因上存在着区域差异：在东部地区,土地供应量影响房价;中部地区,二者联合推动了房价上涨。而在西部地区,房地产税税赋对房价的影响明显。在政策建议上,对地价推动房价的地区要从丰富住房来源和数量入手,而税赋影响房价的地区则要完善相关税制改革。     

Fundamentals and the volatility of real estate prices in China: A sequential modelling strategy

In a similar way to the stock market, the housing market in China has often been portrayed as highly speculative, giving rise to “bubble” concerns. Over the last decade, residential prices increased every year on average by double digits in Beijing or Shanghai. However many observers and researchers argue that fundamentals of the housing sector, both sector-specific and macroeconomic, may have been the driving force behind housing price volatility. While existing empirical work exclusively relies on the government housing prices which may suffer from the well-documented downward bias, this paper uses original high frequency unit price as well as transaction series for the residential resale housing markets of Beijing and Shanghai between January 2005 and December 2010 to test alternative hypotheses about housing prices volatility.We propose a sequential strategy in five steps integrating several techniques previously developed in a piecemeal and scattered way. First, we construct daily hedonic prices. Second, in order to search for the possible presence of bubbles on such high-frequency data, we propose using recently developed tests of an explosive root as an alternative to the unit root hypothesis. The third step is generated by the necessity of handling microstructure noise present at a daily frequency, thus filtering the raw data to extract a random walk component. The fourth step extracts a slowly changing monthly volatility component from the filtered daily hedonic real estate data. Finally, in so far as the presence of bubbles does not seem to characterize the residential housing market in major Chinese cities, such as Beijing and Shanghai, in a fifth step we show that fundamentals are able to explain slowly changing volatility, as well as transaction volumes in these first‐tier cities.     

Bank lending and real estate in Asia: market optimism and asset bubbles

This paper investigates the Asian real estate price run-up and collapse in the 1990s. We identify financial intermediaries’ underpricing of the put option imbedded in non-recourse mortgage loans as a potential cause for the observed price behavior. This underpricing is due to behavioral causes (lender optimism and disaster myopia) and/or rational response of lenders to market incentives (agency conflicts, deposit insurance, or limited liability of bank shareholders). The empirical evidence suggests that underpricing occurred in Thailand, Malaysia, and Indonesia. Consequently, these countries experienced a more severe market crash than Hong Kong and Singapore, where underpricing was kept under control by strong government intervention and/or more appropriate incentive mechanisms.     

银行房贷 创新中的风险

银行个人房贷的创新产品越来越多，房贷市场一片繁荣景象。但同时，过度竞争也为各银行埋下隐患     

Asset price fluctuations in Taiwan: evidence from stock and real estate prices 1973 to 1992

This paper studies the observed price fluctuations from 1973 to 1992 of two major assets in Taiwan: real estate and stocks. Equity prices are found to Granger-cause real estate prices. I then ask under which transmission channel do Taiwan’s asset prices play a more important role. Bank loans are found to be much more significant than interest rates in predicting the movements of both asset prices. This suggests that Taiwan’s asset price fluctuations support the theory that emphasizes the importance of balance sheet position and collateral value to credit-constrained firms. Finally, an experimental simulation suggests that even the rational bubble theory cannot fully explain the acceleration of asset prices during mid-1988 and 1990:Q1.     

征收不动产税打击炒楼

提高对第二套、第三套住房的税收,这样才能真正打击房地产市场上的投机者目前,我国房价高企已成为重要的经济和社会问题。作为房价的组成部分,房地产税收毫无疑问是政府调控房价的重要手段之一。中央财经大学税务学院副院长刘桓表示,无论是去年的“国八条”,还是今年的“国六条     

商业银行房地产贷款风险成因及其防范对策分析

一、商业银行房地产贷款风险产生的原因分析1.部分商业银行和其他金融机构存在经营行为不理性和不规范问题。由于商业银行普遍把房地产信贷作为一种“优良资产”大力发展,在经营业务时容易产生急功近利、放松信贷条件的倾向。例如,在发放房地产贷款过程中,为了竞争客户,有的商业银行降低客户资质等级评定的门坎,将审查手续简化,将审查速度加快。再如,有的商业银行对政府担保项目盲目乐观,而忽视了这些项目所具有的风险性。同时,我国个人住房消费信贷的潜在违约风险不可小视。我国的个人住房信贷业务是最近三年才发展起来的,基数较小且发展较…     

我国中小企业融资窘境及对策

本文从现代物业管理的机制、特点、发展方向等角度阐述了现代物业管理工作中要实施“公关与社交”手段的必要性 ,并联系实际 ,对在现代物业管理工作中如何强化实施“公关与社交”提出了对策与建议。     

利用房地产证券化化解房地产危机

进入2000年以来，房价急剧上涨的现象从宁波、上海等地迅速蔓延至全国，眼下已造成了房地产市场的危机四伏。     

香港银行住宅按揭贷款市场发展的经验与启示

香港经过多年发展，巳形成了一个成熟的银行住宅按揭贷款市场。我们认为，香港银行业住宅按揭贷款的迅速发展建立在信用制度、市场开放和竞争、风险控制、中介服务体系，以及政府调控五个关键因素基础之上的。香港银行住宅按揭贷款市场的发展为我们提供了经验和有益的启迪。     

地产剑客现象思考

地产剑客是指经常在互联网上发表关于房地产开发与经营管理方面意见并有一定影响力的网络作者,是近年来在深圳地产行业出现的一种新现象。本文通过分析地产剑客现象产生的原因和发展特点,指出地产剑客言论具有公共物品的性质,它对于减少房地产消费领域的信息不对称问题和规范开发商的行为有积极的意义;但同时地产剑客又有寻租的动机,其提供信息的可信度需视其服务的对象不同而区别对待。地产剑客现象值得推广,但只有通过提高剑客队伍自身专业素质,并加强行业自律和合理引导,才能更充分地发挥地产剑客的积极作用。     

关于旅游住宅地产的十点提示

<正> 中国房地产业在经历了一系列风风雨雨的考验后,近年来顺应国民经济快速发展和人民生活迅速提高的需要,走进了强势增长的通道,走进了城市运营和泛地产时代,其中,旅游房地产成为最为关注的开发方向之一。我们有足够的理由相信,中国的旅游房地产开发具有广阔的前景,因为这个独特的开发方向已为市场所普遍认同。正是由于市场认同,越来越多的房地产商们在旅游房地产领域抢滩屯兵,跃跃欲试;也正是由于这种跃跃欲试的大量出现,促使我宁愿在一股热浪中给业界一点理性的提示,目的是希望中国旅游房地产发展得更加健康一些、规范一些、快速一些。     

关于不动产统一对照体系的研究

建立不动产统一登记制度是我国经济社会发展的必然要求。受长期多部门登记弊端的影响,不动产统一登记在实施的过程中,面临着种种的困难和挑战。文章指出数据资源作为不动产统一登记的基础,多规多源不动产登记数据的采集、控制、查询、交互、整合等工作是不动产统一登记建设工作中的重中之重。灌南县不动产统一登记信息平台在建设工作中,汲取前期相关试点单位的建设经验,提出了基于不动产统一对照体系的数据兼容模式,有效降低了多规多源数据的采集、控制、查询、交互、整合难度,提升了登记效率和安全性。     

房地产开发商之间博弈分析

本文以房地产开发商之间的价格竞争为切入点,从竞争和合作视角,建立理论模型,分析房地产开发商之间的博弈问题。研究发现:在房地产开发商之间合作带来的利润优于竞争,但博弈的均衡点是(竞争,竞争),博弈中的房地产开发商处于囚徒困境之中。最后本文针对研究中出现的囚徒困境问题向提出房地产企业管理者提出合理的建议。     

Real estate prices in Beijing, 1644 to 1840

This paper provides the first estimates of housing price movements for Beijing in late pre-modern China. We hand-collect from archival sources transaction prices and other house attribute information from the 498 surviving house sale contracts for Beijing during the first two centuries of the Qing Dynasty (1644–1840), a long period without major wars, political turmoil, or significant institutional change in the Chinese capital. We use hedonic methods to construct a real estate price index for Beijing for the period. The regression analysis explains a major proportion of the variance of housing prices. We find that house prices grew steadily for the first half-century of the Qing Dynasty and declined afterwards in both nominal and real terms through the late eighteenth century. Nominal prices grew starting in the late eighteenth century and declined from the early nineteenth century through 1840. But these price changes occurred with contemporaneous price changes in basic measures of the cost of living: there was little change in real terms to the end of our period.     

房地产股权化的可行性思考

一、房地产股权化的设计思路 近年来我国房地产业蓬勃发展，但最近3年的房价涨幅过大使得不少买房者望房兴叹。那么有没有一种方法能使得买房者规避这种涨价的风险，并使一般投资者分享房地产价格上涨的收益而免去各种繁杂的交易手续和高昂的交易费用呢？我的设想是成立一家股份公司REIPV（Real Estate investment Purpose Vehicle）．把房地产基础资产装入REIPV。但房地产基本上都是特定物，具有个别性，如自身的设计风格、外形规格、     

人民币升值对房地产业的影响分析

人民币正在承受越来越大的升值压力,美、日、欧等世界主要经济体已纷纷要求中国尽快扩大人民币汇率浮动区间,香港一年期人民币无交割远期汇率合约贴水不断创出年内新高,5月18日报出4600点,市场预期一年后人民币兑美元将较即期汇价升值5.6%。在愈来愈强的升值预期下,海外资金加速流入国内房地产市场,已经对国内宏观调控和人民币汇率构成极大的影响和挑战。一、货币升值导致房地产价格上升的传导过程从理论上来说,任何产品在供给与需求的作用下,市场价格会很快达到均衡状态,但房地产价格从长期趋势来看总是上涨的,而且发展中国家房价上涨的速…