Firm behaviour under uncertainty: a simple parametric model

In this paper, we model production technology in a state‐contingent framework. We assume that all the firms use the same stochastic technology, but they may have different risk attitudes and information sets, and ex post they may operate in different production environments. Firms maximise ex ante their preference function subject to a stochastic technology constraint; in other words, they are assumed to act rationally, thereby leaving no room for either technical or allocative inefficiency. We provide a simple parametric functional form to represent the state‐contingent technology. Using simple numerical examples, we illustrate how optimal input–output choices are dramatically affected when firms have different preferences and information sets. Thus, we show that the observed disparateness of production choices among different firms can actually be attributed to the stochastic nature of the decision environment.     

Measuring technical efficiency of dairy farms with imprecise data: a fuzzy data envelopment analysis approach

This article integrates fuzzy set theory in the data envelopment analysis (DEA) framework to compute technical efficiency scores when input and output data are imprecise. The underlying assumption in conventional DEA is that input and output data are measured with precision. However, production agriculture takes place in an uncertain environment, and, in some situations, input and output data may be imprecise. We present an approach of measuring efficiency when data are known to lie within specified intervals and empirically illustrate this approach using a group of 29 dairy producers in Pennsylvania. Compared to the conventional DEA scores that are point estimates, the computed fuzzy efficiency scores are interval bound allowing the decision maker to trace the performance of a decision‐making unit at different possibility levels.     

An application of IDEA to wheat farming efficiency

Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) is a nonparametric approach to evaluating the relative efficiency of decision making units (DMUs) that use multiple inputs to produce multiple outputs. An assumption underlying DEA is that all the data assume the form of specific numerical values. In some applications, however, the data may be imprecise. That is, all the input and output data cannot be exactly obtained due to the existence of uncertainty. They are only known to lie within specified intervals. A DEA model with imprecise data or, more compactly, an Imprecise DEA (IDEA) model proposed in this article to evaluate efficiency for each DMU. The article is illustrated with an application to Iranian wheat producer provinces.     

Efficiency analysis under uncertainty: a simulation study

We model production technology in a state‐contingent framework assuming that the firms maximise ex ante their preference function subject to stochastic technology constraint; in other words, firms are assumed to act rationally. We show that rational producers who face the same stochastic technology can make significantly different production choices. Further, we develop an econometric methodology to estimate the risk‐neutral probabilities, efficiency scores and the parameters of stochastic technology when there are two states of nature and only one of which is observed. Finally, we simulate noiseless data based on our state‐contingent specification of technology. Our state‐contingent estimator recovers technology parameters and other economic quantities of interest without any error. But, when we apply conventional efficiency estimators to the simulated data, we obtain biased estimates of technical efficiency.     

A Parametric Approach to Estimating Eco‐Efficiency

The concept of eco‐efficiency is becoming increasingly popular as a tool to capture economic and environmental aspects of agricultural production. The literature to date has exclusively used the Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) approach to measure producers’ eco‐efficiency. We show that it can also be estimated using a Stochastic Frontier Analysis (SFA) approach. Our approach not only allows controlling for random noise in the data but also permits an analysis of the potential substitutability between environmental pressures. We provide an empirical application of our model to data on a sample of Spanish dairy farms.     

State‐contingent analysis of farmers’ response to weather variability: irrigated dairy farming in the Murray Valley,Australia

The agricultural sector is commonly regarded as one of the most vulnerable to climate change. Current understanding of the impact of climate change on this sector relies on the underlying assumptions about farmers’ possible responses to weather variability, including changes in crop choice, input combinations and land management practices. Many previous analyses rely on the implicit (and restrictive) assumption that farmers operate under a fixed technology set across different states of nature. This assumption, represented through stochastic production or profit functions, is commonly made but seldom tested and may understate farmers’ responses to climate change if state‐contingent production technologies are, in reality, more flexible. The potential for farmers to adapt production technologies in response to unforeseen events is at the core of the state‐contingent approach. Advanced in Chambers and Quiggin (2000), the theory contends that producers can manage uncertainty through the allocation of productive inputs to different states of nature. In this article, we test the assumption that farmers’ observed behaviour is consistent with the state‐contingent production theory using farm‐level data from Australia. More precisely, we estimate the milk production technology for a sample of irrigated dairy farms from the southern Murray–Darling Basin over the period from 2006–2007 to 2009–2010.     

山东省渔业生产效率及其变动趋势的测算与分析

论文采用1997～2008年山东省及我国渔业生产投入和产出数据,运用数据包络分析以及Malmquist指数方法,对山东省渔业生产效率及其构成的变动趋势进行了测算。研究结果表明：山东省渔业生产虽总体发展趋势较好,但仍存在着技术效率低下、粗放式经营等问题。论文针对这些问题提出了建议和对策,以期为山东省渔业生产效率的改善提供参考。     

基于DEA方法的广东林业投入产出效率分析

运用了DEA分析方法,对广东21个城市的林业4个投入指标和3个产出指标进行分析,得出各个城市的林业投入产出效率值、纯技术效率值、规模效率值和规模效益,进而对广东林业投入产出效率的区域平均值进行比较分析,结果表明,增加林业投入可以有效提高广东林业投入产出效率非有效城市的林业投入产出效率,而对于清远、韶关和梅州3个城市来说,提高其林业投入产出效率的主要手段应为提高该城市的林业技术效率。     

基于DEA模型的我国淡水养殖生产效率实证研究

通过运用DEA模型,以年份为决策单元,对我国2000～2007年淡水养殖生产投人和产出数据进行了实证分析,并且衡量和比较了我国淡水养殖的综合效率、技术效率和规模效率。结果表明,我国淡水养殖生产效率总体低下,非DEA有效单元的表现既有投入要素的不合理,又有产出结构不合理的原因。在2001～2003年,表现为物质费用投入过多和成本收益率产出不足;在2005～2007年,表现为劳动力投入过剩和成本收益率产出不足。文章又通过投影对非DEA有效单元进行分析,提出了相应的建议和措施。     

A Cost Approach to Economic Analysis Under State-Contingent Production Uncertainty

This article explores the economics of input decision under production uncertainty. The article develops a methodology to specify and estimate cost-minimizing input decisions under a state-contingent technology. The analysis is applied to time series data on U.S. agriculture. It finds strong empirical evidence that expected output alone does not provide an appropriate representation of production uncertainty. The results provide empirical support for an output-cubical technology. This indicates that an ex post analysis of stochastic technology appears appropriate. The analysis also provides evidence that the cost of facing production risk has declined in U.S. agriculture over the last few decades.     

基于DEA方法的农户林地经营效率分析

在通过问卷调查获取福建省南平、三明、龙岩三地市农户杉木林地经营相关数据的基础上,用产出导向的DEA分析法对农户杉木林经营效率进行测算与评价分析的结果显示:福建集体林区农户林地经营效率水平差异较大,林地经营效率整体水平不高。同时,对农户杉木林经营效率之间的相互关系及其投入要素对效率的影响进行Pearson相关性分析和探讨。     

Production economics in the presence of risk*

This paper provides an overview of the literature on production under the influence of risk. Various specifications of stochastic production function such as models with additive and multiplicative uncertainty, Just and Pope model, output‐cubical, state‐allocable and state‐general models are discussed. Further, criteria determining optimal producer behaviour are derived for deterministic production technology and for various kinds of state‐contingent technologies such as output‐cubical, state‐specific, state‐allocable and state‐general technologies. Finally, a brief discussion is presented about the drawbacks of each of these specifications of technology.     

广东省县域农业生产效率分析——基于2015-2019年揭阳市5县域DEA模型为例

农业生产效率提升是实现农业现代化的重要手段。本文以《揭阳市统计年鉴(2015-2019)》的农业相关数据,从县域的视角研究揭阳市农业生产效率,运用DEA模型对揭阳市5个县域的3个投入指标和1个产出指标进行实证分析。结果显示,2015-2019年揭阳市农业生产效率均属于DEA无效,总体效率提升并不明显,且各县域呈现发展不平衡的状态,仅惠来县位于生产前沿面上,普宁市的农业生产效率最低,规模报酬属于递减态势。因此,恰逢“十四五”谋划之时,对揭阳市各县域农业生产效率做出分析研究,为现阶段提升揭阳市农业生产效率提出有参考价值的建议,为广东省县域农业生产效率分析提供范本。     

Technical efficiency and impact of environmental regulations in farrow-to-finish swine production in Taiwan

This article demonstrates how technical efficiency and the impact of environmental regulations of Taiwanese farrow‐to‐finish swine production can be estimated in the presence of undesirable outputs. The issue of measuring technical efficiencies while considering undesirable outputs has been addressed by past studies. But the proper method of including undesirable outputs has always been a subject of debate. This article develops a data envelopment analysis (DEA)‐based model that includes undesirable outputs. The technologies of desirable output production and undesirable output control are considered simultaneously. This allows one to transform undesirable output into desirable output, whereby a traditional Shephard distance function can be used to measure technical efficiencies. An approach to measuring the impacts due to environmental regulations is then derived. Empirical results show that larger farms are more technically efficient than small‐sized farms, but no clear conclusions can be reached for the measures of regulatory impact among farms with different sizes. On average, the sample farms incurred an opportunity cost due to environmental regulations equivalent to 9.8% of market value. Opportunity costs rise with efficiency.     

What Do Farmers Want From Agri‐Environmental Scheme Design? A Choice Experiment Approach

Agri‐environmental schemes (AES) have had a limited effect on European agriculture due to farmers’ reluctance to participate. Information on how farmers react when AES characteristics are modified can be an important input to the design of such policies. This article investigates farmers’ preferences for different design options in a specific AES aimed at encouraging nitrogen fixing crops in marginal dry‐land areas in Spain. We use a choice experiment survey conducted in two regions (Aragón and Andalusia). The analysis employs an error component random parameter logit model allowing for preference heterogeneity and correlation amongst the non‐status quo alternatives. Farmers show a strong preference for maintaining their current management strategies; however, significant savings in cost or increased participation can be obtained by modifying some AES attributes.     

江苏省生产用水利用效率分析

采用三阶段DEA法对江苏省2010—2017年生产用水的相关数据进行研究,选取生产用水量、劳动力和产业部门固定资产投入作为投入指标,地区生产总值作为产出指标,年降水量、水功能区达标率和人均水资源拥有量作为环境变量。研究表明:第一阶段中有5年为非DEA有效,主要是资源配置不合理影响了生产用水的利用效率;经过第二阶段剔除环境变量、管理无效率和随机干扰项等因素的影响后,第三阶段的效率值有所提高,环境变量主要对投入中的生产用水量产生影响。一、三阶段的生产用水利用效率虽有不同,但整体变化趋势相同,在2011—2015年间生产用水利用效率有不同程度的下降,在2015年后逐年上升,2017年达到利用的最佳状态。最后提出了提高江苏省生产用水利用效率的几点建议。     

Estimation of input-oriented technical efficiency using a nonhomogeneous stochastic production frontier model

Technical inefficiency can be modeled as either input‐oriented (IO) or output‐oriented (OO). However, in the estimation of parametric stochastic production frontier models which use maximum likelihood method only the OO measure is used. In this article we consider a simple nonhomogeneous production function and estimate it with both IO and OO specifications. A sample of 80 Spanish dairy data (1993–1998) is used to estimate both models. We consider one output (liters of milk) and four variable inputs (viz., number of cows, kilograms of concentrates, hectares of land, and labor [measured in man‐equivalent units]). We find that returns to scale (RTS) and technical efficiency results derived from these models are different because either estimated technologies are different, or they are evaluated at different points. Using a Monte Carlo analysis we show that if RTS is close to unity differences in the estimates of RTS and technical efficiency are smaller. This holds true for estimates of both RTS and technical efficiency.     

开发区土地利用对市域社会经济发展有效性分析--以江苏省为例

研究目的:研究江苏省开发区土地利用对市域社会经济发展的有效性.研究方法:利用DEA(Data EnvelopmentAnalysis)数据包络模型,选取输入指标开发区占市域土地面积比重、开发区生产总值指数、开发区地均财政收入指数、开发区地均固定资产投资指数,选取与市域社会经济发展相关指标体系为输出指标.研究结果:(1)区域差异:苏南有效性大于苏中,苏中有效性大于苏北地区;(2)无效原因:以开发区土地比重和开发区地均财政收入指数为主;(3)工业化的联动发展机制趋势尚不明显;(4)江苏省开发区对区域经济社会的发展主要集中表现为对市域生产总值和财政收入的贡献.研究结论:DEA模型分析开发区对市域社会经济发展的有效性具有可行性.     

环境约束下畜牧业经济发展效率研究——基于三阶段方向距离函数

目的 文章采用三阶段DEA模型对2009—2018年四川省21个地市州的畜牧业经济发展水平进行投入产出效率分析,旨在测算和提高环境约束下畜牧业经济发展效率。方法 区别于传统的DEA模型,该研究重点在第一阶段和第三阶段都使用方向距离函数测算加入非期望产出后的效率值,也是环境约束的体现,且在第二阶段剔除了环境因素和随机误差干扰,可以更加准确地对效率值进行测算和评价。结果 四川省畜牧业经济发展效率在逐步提高,分区域而言,攀枝花、阿坝藏族羌族自治州、南充等地处于纯技术效率前沿面上,成都、德阳、广元、遂宁、乐山等地处于规模效率前沿面上;提高农民人均纯收入会改善粮食总产量、畜牧业劳动力数量和畜牧业资本投入相对过剩问题,增加畜牧业机械总动力有利于改善畜牧业劳动力和畜牧业投资额的过剩情况。结论 21个地市州之间畜牧业经济发展效率异质性较明显,部分地市州的效率较低且提升进程较缓慢,也有部分地市技术效率呈逐步上升趋势,且提升速度较快;在提升畜牧业经济发展效率方面,除了要参考目前的效率值,加大技术投入与推广力度或者扩大经营规模,还要注重环境因素对投入的影响。     

Using Spatial Analysis to Study the Values of Variable Rate Technology and Information

For adoption of variable rate technology to increase, more knowledge of how crop yields respond to inputs is needed. As the necessary agronomic research involves approximating site‐specific yield response functions, data used inherently lend themselves to spatial analysis. We discuss the different types of spatial analyses that may be appropriate. Then we present a taxonomy for the discussion of the economics of technology and information, and use it to review studies that have contributed significantly to the literature over the past few years. We contend that longer‐term, multilocation agronomic experiments are needed for the estimation of site‐specific ex ante optimal variable input rates, and of expected profitability of variable rate technology and information.