Need,Merit, or Self‐Interest—What Determines the Allocation of Aid?

Previous studies of aid allocation have concluded that foreign aid is allocated not only according to development needs but also according to donor self‐interest. We revisit this topic and allow for donor‐ as well as recipient‐specific effects in our analysis. In addition to comments on the statistical significance of our results we assess the relative economic importance of recipient need, merit, and donor self‐interest. Our results indicate that all bilateral donors allocate aid according to their self‐interest and recipient need. However, most bilateral donors seem to place little importance on recipient merit. Less than 1% of the variance of aid is accounted for by merit, ceteris paribus. The UK and Japan are exceptions: they allocate more aid to countries with higher growth, higher democracy scores, and fewer human rights abuses.     

HOW IMPORTANT ARE TERMS‐OF‐TRADE SHOCKS?

According to conventional wisdom, terms‐of‐trade shocks represent a major source of business cycles in emerging and poor countries. This view is largely based on the analysis of calibrated business‐cycle models. We argue that the view that emerges from empirical structural vector autoregression (SVAR) models is strikingly different. We estimate country‐specific SVARs using data from 38 countries and find that terms‐of‐trade shocks explain less than 10% of movements in aggregate activity. We then estimate key structural parameters of a three‐sector business‐cycle model country by country and find a disconnect between the importance assigned to terms‐of‐trade shocks by theoretical and SVAR models.     

Can Capital Income Taxes Survive? And Should They?

The article surveys some main results in the theory of capitalincome taxation in the open economy; reviews recent trends ininternational taxation and discusses alternative blueprintsfor fundamental capital income tax reform from the perspectiveof an open economy faced with growing mobility of capital incometax bases. (JEL code: H21, H25)     

Is the Age Gradient in Self‐Reported Material Hardship Explained By Resources,Needs, Behaviors,or Reporting Bias?

Older people report much less hardship than younger people in a range of contexts, despite lower incomes. Hardship indicators are increasingly influential, so the source of this age gradient has considerable policy implications. We propose a theoretical and empirical strategy to decompose the sources of this relationship. We exploit a unique feature of the Household, Income and Labour Dynamics Australia (HILDA) survey, which collects reports of hardship from all adult household members. This facilitates within‐couple estimates, allowing us to identify age‐related reporting bias. The majority of the raw age–hardship gradient is explained by observed resources, particularly wealth and home ownership. One third of the relationship is explained by unobserved differences between households, which we interpret as age‐related behavioral choices. Reporting error does not appear to contribute to the age gradient.     

Does public‐sector employment fully crowd out private‐sector employment?

Employment matters for development because it can raise household income, lower inequality, promote economic growth, and contribute to political stability. Many countries have high rates of public employment, but what effect does this have on overall employment and unemployment rates? This paper investigates if and to what extent public‐sector employment crowds out (reduces) private‐sector employment. In particular, we estimate regressions of unemployment or private‐sector employment on two measures of public‐sector employment. The study uses an especially assembled dataset, which is novel for its coverage of a large sample of developing countries as part of a panel of rich and poor countries. Our results point to full or just about full crowding‐out for the entire sample. Unlike previous cross‐country studies, which were restricted to advanced economies, we are able to show that these results also apply to developing countries, although crowding‐out may not be quite as high as in advanced economies. The results mean that high rates of public employment have an offsetting large negative impact on private employment rates and do not reduce overall unemployment rates. With the qualifier that government activities may help the economy in other ways, our results imply that, rather than creating public‐sector jobs, scarce fiscal resources could be better spent on other developmental needs.     

What makes a successful export? Evidence from firm‐product‐ level data

Abstract We analyse a very rich and unique panel database that provides information on exports at the firm‐product level. Motivated by the recent theory of multi‐product firms, we investigate what determines the survival of products in the export mix to find that, in export dynamics, characteristics of the product as well as that of the firm matter. In particular, firm productivity as well as product scale and tenure are associated with a higher export survival rate. This suggests, in line with theory, that there are firm‐ as well as firm‐product‐specific competencies that are important for shaping firms’ export mix.     

Is high‐tech care in a middle‐income country worth it?

How much does a dramatic increase in technology improve healthcare quality in an upper middle‐income country? Using rich vital statistics on infant health outcomes, this study evaluates the effect of introducing technologically advanced perinatal hospitals in 24 regions of Russia on infant mortality during the period 2009–2013. A 7‐year aggregate panel dataset reveals that opening a perinatal centre corresponds to infant mortality reduction by 3.8 percent from the baseline rate, neonatal (0–28 day) mortality by 7 percent and early neonatal (0–6 day) mortality by 7.3 percent. We find that the perinatal centres help to save 263 additional infant lives annually, ranging from 3 to 25 lives in regions with different birth rates. However, we further find that an average cost per life saved is 52 million rb (or 2.6 million 2014 PPP USD), which is much higher than the cost of similar interventions in the United States.     

DO BALANCED‐BUDGET RULES INCREASE GROWTH?

This study tests the hypothesis that balanced‐budget rules (BBRs) that restrict public borrowing to investments in public infrastructure increase growth by increasing the productivity of debt, either because investments in public infrastructure are more productive than other uses for which states borrow funds or because BBRs lower borrowing costs. Results are based on data at 5‐year intervals for 49 US states over the period 1957–2007. The tests strongly support the hypothesis that BBRs increase growth by increasing the productivity of debt and withstand a variety of robustness checks, including alternative lags, exogeneity tests, GMM estimation, a placebo test, and the influence of outliers.     

DOES NEAR‐RATIONALITY MATTER IN FIRST‐ORDER APPROXIMATE SOLUTIONS? A PERTURBATION APPROACH

This paper studies first‐order approximate solutions to near‐rational dynamic equilibrium models. Under near‐rationality, agents' subjective beliefs are distorted away from rational expectations via a change of measure process which fulfills some regularity conditions. In most applications, the beliefs distortion process is also directly observed by (a subset of) the decision‐makers – e.g., ambiguity‐averse households or policy‐makers with a concern for robustness – and therefore included into their optimization problems. We investigate conditions for existence and local uniqueness of solutions under endogenous distortions, as well as the relation with their rational expectations counterparts. We show that linearly perturbed solutions may well be affected by the presence of distorted beliefs, depending on the underlying model economy. In particular, while directly affecting first‐order decision rules, near‐rationality may also induce failure of the certainty equivalence principle. Moreover, the martingale representation of distorted beliefs might prove non‐unique, pointing to a subtle form of equilibrium indeterminacy.     

Are sequential round‐robin tournaments discriminatory?

I examine sequential round‐robin tournaments with three and four symmetric players. Each player is matched once with each other player and each match is organized as a Tullock contest. A single prize is allocated to the player with the most matches won. I show that, depending on the position of their matches in the sequence of the tournament, the players' ex ante winning probabilities and expected payoffs differ. Compared to tournaments with matches organized as all‐pay auctions, however, discrimination is weaker and partially reversed. Moreover, aggregate effort in tournaments with suitable Tullock contests is larger than in tournaments with all‐pay auctions. The fairness of round‐robin tournaments may be improved by an endogenous sequence of matches or the requirement that players fix their effort ex ante.     

Do South‐South trade agreements increase trade? Commodity‐level evidence from COMESA

Abstract .  South-South trade agreements are proliferating. Yet the impact of these agreements is largely unknown, as existing North-North and North-South micro-level studies are likely to yield misleading predictions for South-South trade agreements. This paper estimates the impact of COMESA on Uganda's imports between 1994 and 2003. Detailed import and tariff data at the 6-digit Harmonized System level are used for more than 1,000 commodities. Based on a difference-in-difference estimation strategy, the paper finds that – in contrast to evidence from aggregate statistics – COMESA's preferential tariff liberalization has not considerably increased Uganda's trade with member countries, on average, across sectors. The effect, however, is heterogeneous across sectors. Finally, the paper finds no evidence of trade-diversion effects.     

Do German Welfare‐to‐Work Programmes Reduce Welfare Dependency and Increase Employment?

Abstract. During the last decade, many Western economies reformed their welfare systems with the aim of activating welfare recipients by increasing welfare‐to‐work programmes (WTWP) and job‐search enforcement. We evaluate the short‐term effects of three important German WTWP implemented after a major reform in January 2005 (‘Hartz IV’), namely short training, further training with a planned duration of up to three months and public workfare programmes (‘One‐Euro‐Jobs’). Our analysis is based on a combination of a large‐scale survey and administrative data that is rich with respect to individual, household, agency level and regional information. We use this richness of the data to base the econometric evaluation on a selection‐on‐observables approach. We find that short‐term training programmes, on average, increase their participants' employment perspectives. There is also considerable effect heterogeneity across different subgroups of participants that could be exploited to improve the allocation of welfare recipients to the specific programmes and thus increase overall programme effectiveness.     

LA POLITIQUE BUDGÉTAIRE ÉVINCE‐T‐ELLE L’INVESTISSEMENT PRIVÉ AU BÉNIN?

RESUME : Cet article analyse les effets de la politique budgétaire sur l’investissement privé au Bénin à l’aide de deux modèles économétriques (l’approche par le flux d’investissement public et l’approche par le capital public), estimés en utilisant les outils d’économétrie avancée tels que les tests de racine unitaire et de cointégration et en appliquant la procédure en deux étapes suggérée par Engle et Granger (1987) . Nos résultats indiquent que la politique fiscale mais aussi le stock permanent de capital privé et le crédit au secteur privé favorise l’investissement privé. Cependant, la formation de capital public et les dépenses de consommation publique évincent l’investissement privé.     

DOES BEHAVIOUR‐BASED PRICE DISCRIMINATION FOSTER FIRMS’ DIFFERENTIATION?

We study the impact of behaviour‐based price discrimination on the incentive of the firms to differentiate their products. We consider both ‘standard’ and ‘extreme’ behaviour‐based price discrimination: the latter always reduces the incentive to differentiate with respect to uniform pricing, while the former fosters differentiation if the consumers are sufficiently forward‐looking and/or the firms are sufficiently myopic.     

WILL TAX‐BASED HEALTH INSURANCE REFORMS HELP THE SELF‐EMPLOYED STAY IN BUSINESS?

The self‐employed face a tax‐induced disadvantage relative to wage and salary workers when it comes to the payment of health insurance premiums. This paper uses a panel of individual tax return data to test whether lower health insurance premium costs because of an expanded tax incentive result in longer periods of self‐employment. The results suggest that households claiming the deduction are indeed less likely to exit self‐employment. Equalizing the treatment of health insurance premiums for the self‐employed and wage workers by allowing full deductibility from Self‐Employment Contributions Act (SECA) taxes would result in a 7% decrease in the probability of exit. (JEL H32, I18, L26)     

ARE COOPERATIVES MORE PRODUCTIVE THAN INVESTOR‐OWNED FIRMS? CROSS‐INDUSTRY EVIDENCE FROM PORTUGAL

We analyse empirically whether cooperatives and investor‐owned firms differ in terms of productive efficiency. Using rich Portuguese panel data covering a wide range of industries, we apply two different empirical approaches to estimate potential differences in productive efficiency. The results from our benchmark random‐effects model show that cooperatives are significantly less productive, on average, than investor‐owned firms, both at the aggregate level and for most of the industries considered. However, the results derived from a System‐GMM approach, which is our preferred empirical strategy, are much less conclusive, and we cannot conclude that cooperatives are generally less efficient that investor‐owned firms. With either approach, though, we find no evidence that cooperatives are more productive than investor‐owned firms in any industry.     

IS MARKET‐ORIENTED REFORM PRODUCING A ‘TWO‐TRACK’ EUROPE? EVIDENCE FROM ELECTRICITY AND TELECOMMUNICATIONS

ABSTRACT: The European Commission has formally recognized that adequate provision of basic household services, including energy, communications, water and transport, is key to ensuring equity, social cohesion and solidarity. Yet little research has been done on the impact of the reform of these services in this regard. This article offers an innovative way to explore such questions by analyzing and contrasting stated and revealed preferences on citizen satisfaction with and expenditure on two services, telecommunications and electricity, in two large countries, Spain and the UK. We find evidence that in telecommunications, but not in electricity, reform has led to a ‘two‐track’ Europe, where citizens who are elderly, not working or the less‐educated behave differently in the market, with the result that they are less satisfied with these services than their younger, working, better‐educated, counterparts.