应对新冠疫情冲击的货币政策国际协调

新冠疫情冲击了世界经济增长和金融市场稳定。很多国家推出极度宽松货币政策应对危机。从经典货币政策国际协调的博弈理论来看,应对本次疫情冲击的各国货币政策协调性不足,“以邻为壑”的非合作均衡效果明显。为数不多的货币政策协调也存在执行力不足、深度与广度不够、新兴市场国家话语权低等问题。在世界经济紧密联系、货币政策溢出效应加强的背景下,为了应对疫情冲击,国际组织需要创设协议和合作剩余分配机制,寻找货币政策刺激效果和防止国际资产泡沫之间的平衡,加强政策沟通和信息共享,提高新兴市场国家话语权,建设有效的应对危机的货币政策国际协调机制。中国应在“一带一路”倡议的框架下建立长期货币政策协调机制,在现有的IMF和G20等平台上发挥发达国家与新兴市场国家之间的协调桥梁作用,通过持续开展央行间技术性合作等措施参与和推进协调进程。     

Terrorism and international economic policy

We add to the ongoing discussion regarding the policy consequences of terrorism by analyzing the effect of terrorism on international economic policy for a panel of 170 countries between 1970 and 2016. We find that countries resort to less liberal international economic policies when facing the threat of terrorism. This effect is especially relevant to smaller (less populated) countries. Our main finding is robust to an instrumental-variable approach. We argue that governments pursue less liberal international economic policies in response to terrorism to interrupt the organization and financing of terrorism, limit capital flight, stabilize public finances and signal political resolve.     

国外产学研合作模式比较研究及启示

以何种模式进行合作是产学研合作过程中的一个重要问题,各国在产学研合作的实践过程中都形成了不同的模式。本文介绍了6个典型国家的产学研合作模式,并作了对比分析,分析结论对我国高校产学研合作创新提供了一些启示：高校应摆脱传统科研体制的观念束缚,消除产学研合作的传统边界,加快产学研合作的开放性与国际化;充分整合高校的各种社会资源,探索全方位、多元化、深层次的产学研合作模式;改革新形势下产学研合作的制度环境,变被动合作为主动合作。     

后危机时代中国金融国际化发展趋向展望——基于金融安全的视角

2007年爆发的美国次贷危机逐步演变为全球性金融危机。在此背景下,金融国际化备受质疑。面对危机,应该客观地看待金融国际化与金融安全之间的关系。在后危机时代,为夯实国家金融安全基础,防范金融危机,中国不仅不应放慢金融国际化的步伐,反而应主动融入金融全球化的浪潮,进一步推进社会信用体系的国际化演进进程,以缩小国间制度落差;借世界金融格局变革之机,积极参与后危机时代的国际金融秩序重构,提升话语权;在遵循一定协调原则的前提下,主动参与货币政策的国际协调;强化金融监管的国际合作,联手防范金融风险的国际传递;紧跟国际监管趋势,宏观与微观审慎监管并举,构筑国家金融安全的监管防线。     

Globalisation,indigenous innovation and national strategy: comparing China and India's wireless standardisation

This comparative case study investigates the contrasting approaches to telecommunications standard-setting adopted by two developing countries, China and India, using the 3G standard as a case study. Despite facing comparable opportunities in the form of fast-growing markets, and comparable challenges in terms of meeting consumer demand and fostering industrial development, the two countries adopted sharply different standards strategies, with China investing heavily in its home-grown Time Division Synchronous Code Division Multiple Access standard, and India allowing operators to choose any international standard. In this paper, we trace the antecedents of this divergence to the different policy approaches that the two countries adopted to their respective electronics industries in the early to mid-1990s.     

The high road and the low road to international competitiveness: Extending the neo‐Schumpeterian trade model beyond technology

Extending the neo‐Schumpeterian trade model, we estimate a ‘social‐gap’ model for a group of 17 OECD countries over the period 1975–1995. We find that government spending on social protection, employment protection regulations, union density, strike activity, and income security in the labor market (all measured in ‘gap’ form) are statistically significantly related to changes in international competitiveness. Specifically, we find some support for a Calmfors–Driffil, nonlinear, relation between cooperative labor relations and social spending patterns on the one hand, and international trade (and inward foreign investment) competitiveness on the other, implying that countries with relatively stronger institutional arrangements have better international economic performance than countries in the middle of the scale of conflict and cooperation. Our results indicate that models focusing solely on innovative effort are misspecified, and may suffer from an omitted variable bias caused by the absence of consideration of other institutional factors influencing international trade and investment.     

南南合作?南北合作?--发展中国家在国际区域经济一体化中的选择

国际区域经济一体化是当今世界经济发展的新潮流,也是发展中国家面临的国际发展环境。参与国际区域经济一体化已经成为促进发展中国家经济发展的重要途径。发展中国家应选择哪些国家作为经济联盟伙伴,西方发展经济学界的激进主义反对南北合作而主张南南合作,近年来世界银行的经济学家的研究结果却表明,对于发展中国家来说,南北合作优于南南合作。多元化地选择联盟国家是发展中国家在国际区域经济一体化中的基本战略。     

Optimal investment strategies in an international economy with stochastic interest rates

We investigate how investors should optimally choose to invest in a dynamically complete international market. We find closed-form solutions for the optimal investment strategy and for the wealth loss an investor suffers from not investing internationally. Theoretically, we show that the gain from international investment is due to the speculative investment only, and why it is important for an investor from a large economy to invest in a small economy. In a numerical example we compare the wealth losses investors from Denmark and the U.S. suffer due to home bias.     

Politically influenced counterterrorism policy and welfare efficiency

The paper examines how two targeted countries strategically deploy their counterterror forces when lobbying defense firms influence counterterror provision. For proactive measures, lobbying activities in a single targeted country lessen underprovision, raise overall counterterrorism, and reduce terrorism. Welfare decreases in the lobbied country but increases in the other targeted country owing to enhanced free riding. Lobbying influence on the targeted countries' welfare is tied to terrorists' targeting preferences and how the lobbied government weighs citizens’ welfare. Lobbying in both targeted countries may result in the first-best equilibrium. International policy coordination may lead to less efficient outcomes than the noncooperative equilibrium.     

From free oil to ‘freedom oil’: terrorism,war and US Geopolitics in the Persian Gulf

Oil has been a major driving force behind foreign interests, regional and domestic balance of power, and territorial conflicts in the Persian Gulf. As a result of the ‘9/11’ terrorist attacks debates on oil and the United States' security agenda have significantly shifted. If on one side, those opposing US military interventionism have argued that the ‘war on terror’ provided one more convenient cover for a renewed ‘imperialist oil grab’ in this region; on the other, links between oil and terrorism pointed at problems of governance in oil-producing countries. As the ‘war on terror’ became justified as a ‘war of liberation’ against oil-funded dictators, the US portrayed its foreign policy as shifting from ensuring free access to oil for the world market, to ensuring that oil is delivering ‘freedom’ to local populations. Although engaging the crucial issue of oil governance, there is yet little evidence given the number of war victims and potential vested interests that a US policy shift from ‘free oil’ to ‘freedom oil’ is genuine and viable.     

Environmental protection without loss of international competitiveness

We develop a two‐country Cournot oligopoly model with product differentiation across countries and production‐generated pollution. The abatement of pollution by the firms in response to emission taxes is endogenous, and the number of firms can be fixed or there may be free entry and exit of firms in both countries. We propose particular unilateral and multilateral piecemeal policy reforms of emission taxes and production subsidies such that domestic industries will not suffer any loss of international competitiveness (defined in terms of either market share or profits), emission levels will be lower, and welfare could be higher in both countries.     

国际产业转移平台与技术转移探析——兼论中国促进技术转移的对策

国际产业转移的过程也伴随着技术的转移。后进国家可以利用先进技术的转移引导本国产业结构的快速升级。笔者通过研究依托国际产业转移的技术转移机制,并对新一轮国际产业转移的特点以及其对中国实现技术转移的影响进行了分析,提出了应对新一轮产业的国际转移要采取完善国内投资环境、促进国际技术合作与提高中国企业的技术吸收能力和自主研发、创新能力等对策,促进我国产业结构的快速健康升级。     

伊犁河流域综合开发的国际合作

遵循联合国宪章、国际水法,履行合作开发权利和义务,协调并满足各国的用水利益,是伊犁河流域水资源分配、利用及管理的基本原则。中哈两国利益冲突的焦点:水资源短缺与用水不断增长的矛盾;水资源污染与生态环境保护;分水、用水不均及相关利益协调与补偿等。中方大规模水土开发、水利水电工程,特别是向南北疆跨流域调水将改变流域水资源的分配格局和利益分配模式。在国际合作层面,中哈石油合作对实现两国政治安全、经济安全、能源安全及区域安全等根本利益具有重大影响,伊河开发应服务于中哈能源合作,与中哈两国区域一体化战略保持一致。     

DEMOCRACY AND GLOBALIZATION

The relationship between democracy and globalization has been a subject of both scholarly and policy debate. Some argue that the two go hand in hand – that unrestricted international transactions encourage political accountability and transparency and that politically free societies are least likely to restrict the mobility of goods and services. But others argue that democracies, in which special interests that suffer from foreign competition have voice, are more likely to have closed markets, and vice versa. Our analysis differs from its predecessors in three ways. We seek to uncover general patterns by considering as long a period as possible and all countries with the relevant data. We consider multiple dimensions of globalization, analyzing both trade liberalization and capital account liberalization. And we estimate these relationships using an instrumental variables strategy that allows us to confront the issue of simultaneity. Our findings support the existence of positive relationships between democracy and globalization.     

International coordination of debt rules with time-inconsistent voters

In this study, we investigate the international coordination of debt rules in an economy consisting of several countries with varying degrees of present bias. A case wherein each country sets its own uncoordinated debt rules is compared with a case wherein all countries have common coordinated debt rules. Countries with weak present-biased preferences increase their debt issuance and suffer from welfare losses by participating in coordination. In contrast, countries with strong present-biased preferences reduce their debt issuance and can enjoy welfare improvement by participating in coordination. The contrasting results suggest the possibility that countries with weak present-biased preferences have little incentive to follow the coordinated rule.     

On enhanced cooperation

We analyze the issues relative to the formation of sub-unions in a federation, called enhanced cooperation agreements in the European Union. When centralization is not politically feasible, an agreement among a subset of countries may allow such countries to exploit benefits from coordination that would otherwise be lost. Other countries in the federation may object to the sub-union because it changes the status quo; if cooperation at the federal level becomes convenient in the future, the change in the status quo may adversely affect the countries which remained initially outside the sub-union. We show that as long as the countries can commit to coordinate on a policy which takes into account the utility of the excluded countries, sub-union formation may be optimal. The relative advantage of a sub-union towards immediate centralization increases when transfers are costly. On the other hand, if commitment is not possible then the excluded countries may be penalized. We use the results to discuss the newly introduced rules for enhanced cooperation agreements in the European Union.     

International policy coordination mechanism with respect to the moral hazards of financial intermediaries

This paper examines the impact of cross-border financial externalities on moral hazards of the banking sector, and an international policy coordination mechanism to reduce the moral hazards of the banking sector considering cross-border financial externalities. We demonstrate that the moral hazard of banking, such as reducing the monitoring efforts, is aggravated by cross-border financial externalities, while the introduction of an international policy coordination mechanism might reduce the moral hazard caused by these externalities. Moreover, international policy coordination is less likely to be sustained when the policy maker is short-sighted and the banking sector has greater political influence. However, when the distortionary cost of a liquidity aids policy is lower with high administrative transparency, and cross-border financial externality is greater, the coordination mechanism is more likely to be sustained. The results imply that efforts to launch an effective international financial coordination mechanism should start with countries with higher administrative transparency, more political stability, and enhanced financial integration.     

Worldwide impact of IMF policies during the Asian crisis: who does the IMF help,creditors or crisis countries?

This paper examines the effects of International Monetary Fund (IMF) policy announcements on financial markets worldwide. We investigate reactions from stock, bond, foreign exchange and futures markets and banking and financial companies during the Asian crisis. We explore the impact of IMF bailouts not only on crisis countries, but also on main creditor countries. We study the impact of local governments’ and public responses in crisis countries to account for interaction between the IMF and local parties. We show IMF involvement and local governments’ co-operation actually helps crisis countries but not creditors. We show that in crisis countries, financial markets generally react unfavourably to their governments’ initial demands for IMF assistance, while compliance of the crisis countries with the IMF policy action is commonly perceived as good news. Financial markets in crisis countries react negatively to prolonged negotiations and government actions against IMF policy. Creditor countries’ financial markets are not responsive to IMF actions in crisis countries. We discuss policy implications of findings.     

Export cartel and consumer welfare

The purpose of this paper is to show that export cartels are not necessarily harmful for consumers in the importing countries. Using a strategic trade policy model, we show that, contrary to the harmful effect, product‐market cooperation benefits consumers by affecting the trade policies. We further show that consumers in the importing countries are affected adversely if cooperation is among the governments of the exporting countries, instead of the exporting firms.     

中国和八国集团经济政策协调的经济基础分析

为研究中国和八国集团(G8)是否存在经济政策协调的经济基础,文章以国际经济政策协调理论为依据,从经济相互依存度考察政策协调的基础。通过选取衡量经济体相关性和趋同性的标准,对中国与八国集团中七个主要发达国家间的经济相互依存度进行比较。贸易的相关性和部分政策变量指标的趋同性,说明中国和七国已表现出一定的经济政策协调基础。但是,运用VAR模型对影响经济波动的深层因素——供给和需求冲击进行对称性分析,却显示中国与七国冲击对称性尚不显著,表明中国与七国相比参与政策协调的成本会比较大。所以,中国目前可不急于全面参与G8的政策协调,而应先利用当前的对话机制,加强同发达国家的经济联系,逐步探索未来协调的步骤和领域。