经济集聚密度与劳动生产率差异-基于北京市微观数据的实证研究

地区间劳动生产率差异是普遍存在的经济现象,根据北京市2004年经济普查数据分析发现,市内各地区的劳动生产率差异非常显著,其差异程度不亚于各市间、各省间的差异水平。我们从经济集聚密度的视角对北京市内的劳动生产率差异进行解释,结果发现劳动生产率与经济密度之间存在显著的正向关系,劳动生产率对单位面积上产出和单位面积上就业的弹性分别为11.8%和16.2%,高于欧美的4%—5%的平均水平。这一分析结论验证了集聚经济效应的存在,也为解释我国地区间劳动生产率的差异提供了一个比较好的理论视角。     

EMPLOYMENT PROTECTION AND THE NON‐LINEAR RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE WAGE‐PRODUCTIVITY GAP AND UNEMPLOYMENT

This paper studies the relationship between the wage‐productivity gap and the unemployment rate in OECD countries between 1985 and 2007. In particular, we investigate whether differences in the employment protection across countries affect the link between these two variables. We show that the elasticity of unemployment with respect to the wage‐productivity gap is non‐linear and that it switches from a positive to a negative value with stricter employment legislation. From a theoretical point of view, we argue that this result is related to a set of labor market reforms introduced in many OECD countries, which affected the relative strictness of institutions.     

A three state model of worker flows in general equilibrium

We develop a simple model featuring search frictions and a nondegenerate labor supply decision along the extensive margin. The model is a standard version of the neoclassical growth model with indivisible labor and idiosyncratic productivity shocks and frictions characterized by employment loss and employment opportunity arrival shocks. We argue that it is able to account for the key features of observed labor market flows for reasonable parameter values. Persistent idiosyncratic productivity shocks play a key role in allowing the model to match the persistence of the employment and out of the labor force states found in individual labor market histories.     

Employment and Productivity Growth in Europe and North America: The Impact of Labor Market Institutions

In this paper, we examine long-run employment and productivity growth in the major economies of North America and Europe from 1960 to the early 1990s. We develop a model in which output growth is determined by the growth of aggregate demand, and the relative contributions of employment and productivity growth to the growth of output depend on country specific labor market institutions. We find that institutions that promote collective bargaining, employment security and social protection have roughly equal and opposite effects on employment growth (negative) and productivity growth (positive), giving rise to an inverse relationship between these variables. The welfare implications of this finding are that labor market deregulation could result in more work and greater inequality and insecurity for workers, without significantly increasing the rate of economic growth.     

ON‐THE‐JOB SEARCH,PRODUCTIVITY SHOCKS,AND THE INDIVIDUAL EARNINGS PROCESS*

Individual labor earnings observed in worker panel data have complex, highly persistent dynamics. We investigate the capacity of a structural job search model with on‐the‐job search, wage renegotiation by mutual consent, and i.i.d. productivity shocks to replicate salient properties of these dynamics, such as the covariance structure of earnings, the evolution of individual earnings mean, and variance with the duration of uninterrupted employment, or the distribution of year‐to‐year earnings changes. Structural estimation of our model on a 12‐year panel of highly educated British workers shows that our simple framework produces a dynamic earnings structure that is remarkably consistent with the data.     

学习就业是历史发展的必然要求——论就业结构转换

本文从分析生产力的基本职能出发，揭示出随着生产力的发展，劳动生产率的提高会越来越多地释放出生产就业者，日益发达的生产能力会生产出超过人们购买能力的产品（含服务品）。这里主张将这些剩余的人力物力用于学习就业，反过来学习就业又可以进一步推动生产力发展，形成互为促进的积极意义。然而，市场经济并不能自动将这些剩余的人力物力配置到学习就业上，以改革传统的财政收入方式，增强社会再分配能力来发展学习就业事业就成为我们可供选择的路径。     

Agricultural productivity,the real effective exchange rate,and structural change: Some evidence from Africa

Agriculture is thought to play a number of roles in the early development process. All of these roles involve fostering non‐agricultural development, in particular manufacturing. It is argued in this paper that agriculture plays a role that has hitherto been ignored. Specifically, if agricultural labor productivity increases faster than manufacturing labor productivity, the real effective exchange rate will depreciate. This depreciation of real effective exchange rate occurs because in very poor countries agriculture makes up the dominant share of both GDP and employment. The depreciation also makes it easier for a country to expand the production of tradables relative to nontradables, with manufacturing being the main tradable. This proposition, which as agricultural labor productivity increases relative to manufacturing labor productivity the real effective exchange rate depreciates, is tested using data drawn from 10 sub‐Saharan African countries.     

部门间生产率差距、劳动力去工业化与结构性减速

基于中国劳动力就业结构出现过快和过早去工业化的迹象,本文从部门间生产率差距的视角,利用多部门一般均衡模型、数值模拟和计量实证分析方法研究发现：（1）理论上,当服务业劳动生产率增长慢于工业,部门间生产率差距将扩大,导致劳动力去工业化速率加快;且部门间生产率差距的存在使得劳动力去工业化对经济增长产生结构性减速效应。服务业部门生产率加快提升,部门间生产率差距将会缩小,从而减缓去工业化速率和降低结构性减速压力;工业部门生产率提升尽管会扩大部门间生产率差距从而加快劳动力去工业化,但在长期中起到均匀化经济增长速率的作用。（2）利用2001—2018年中国省级和城市级面板数据的计量实证分析发现,部门间生产率差距的存在导致劳动力去工业化的效应在全时段样本下显著,但劳动力去工业化对经济增长的结构性减速效应仅在2009—2018年区间样本下显著,表明近年来中国经济增长减速与部门间生产率差距及其导致的劳动力去工业化相关。（3）赶超成功与失败国家的经验比较也表明,工业与服务业部门劳动生产率的改善与协调是跨越中等收入陷阱以及跨越后实现持续赶超的关键。     

有效就业理论与宏观经济增长悖论

1997年以后,中国出现了经济高速增长,就业压力不减,物价走低的宏观经济增长悖论。奥肯定律失效,宏观经济关系扭曲,产出对就业和物价的影响无法正常传递,是造成两个悖论的宏观原因。有效就业理论认为,企业储备了大量的无效就业人员,有效就业率低,因而奥肯定律失效。释放或充分使用无效就业人员,企业有效就业率的提高带来劳动生产率的上升,企业有了产出扩张的激励。这是两个悖论的微观成因。较低的有效就业率源自于已有就业制度安排下劳动力的企业内部储备。     

为何改革没有提高国有企业的相对劳动生产率

本文用一个国有企业工资和就业决定模型为不同所有制企业间劳动生产率差距越来越大的现象提供了一个理论解释。本文认为,在国有企业的工资和就业决定受到管制的情况下,一些通常被认为有效的改革措施(如提高管理者固定收入和利润分成比率)反而会阻碍企业重构。另外,在改革过程中,国有企业的产值份额越来越小,但其就业份额却仍然非常之大,这就使得政府更加强调国有企业稳定社会的功能。因此,放松管制对于成功的市场化改革和企业重构而言是至关重要的。     

技术进步对建筑业劳动生产率的影响分析

以经典的柯布—道格拉斯函数和索洛经济增长模型为基础,建立劳动生产率增长函数模型,并以建筑业1995—2009年的统计数据为样本,分析技术进步和资本深化对劳动生产率增长的影响程度。结果显示:1995—2009年,技术进步对我国建筑业劳动生产率的增长起主要推动作用;建筑业劳动生产率实际年均增长率较低,促进建筑业持续快速发展需要进一步提升技术进步水平。     

Global Defeminization? Industrial Upgrading and Manufacturing Employment in Developing Countries

Globalization has for decades been associated with a rise in the female share of employment or feminization. This study finds that since the mid 1980s, export growth in developing countries is associated with feminization in some countries and a defeminization in others. Focusing on Southeast Asia and Latin America, it uses a fixed-effects econometric model to test whether the technological conditions of production (labor or capital intensity) rather than export growth account for shifts in the female share of employment in manufacturing. It finds that the capital intensity of production, evidenced by shifts in labor productivity, is negatively and significantly related to shifts in the female share of employment in manufacturing, while exports are statistically insignificant. The study concludes that an anti-female bias exists in labor demand changes that result from output or employment shifts in developing countries when manufacturing becomes more capital intensive, a process likely related to industrial upgrading.     

产业集聚与地区间劳动生产率差异

本文从产业集聚、劳动生产率、地区差距相互的紧密联系出发,认为非农产业规模报酬递增地方化是产业集聚的源泉,并提高了该区域劳动生产率,进而对地区差距产生了持久的影响。利用中国2004年地级城市和副省级城市的数据,我们发现大陆地区非农产业劳动生产率对非农就业密度的弹性系数为8.8%左右,高于现阶段欧美国家5%左右的水平。同时这一集聚效应在省际之间有存在差异和没有差异两种情况,在非农产业分布极不平衡的情况下,这都扩大了劳动生产率在各省之间的趋异,将地区差距维持在较高的水平上。     

Technology shocks around the world

This article investigates the effects of a permanent technology shock on labor input in the major seven developed countries. The recent empirical literature which uses Structural Vector Autoregressions (SVAR) with long-run restrictions has argued that technology shocks lead to a persistent and significant decline in employment in most of the G7 countries. We claim that the international transmission of shocks prevents the use of existing SVAR models, but also suggests alternative specifications to properly uncover their effects. We show in a quantitative two-country model that a measure of labor productivity aggregated across countries is more immune to persistent, if not permanent, shocks and allows to accurately identify the responses of the labor input to a technology shock. Using labor productivity at the G7 aggregate level, we find that the response of employment changes critically in most of the major seven developed countries.     

SKILL BIAS AND EMPLOYMENT FRICTIONS IN THE U.S. LABOR MARKET 1970–1990*

This article studies simultaneous changes in four labor market variables: the unemployment rates for college and high‐school graduates, the education wage premium, and the level of college participation. It develops an equilibrium search and matching model of the labor market where education is endogenously determined. Then the model is used to investigate quantitatively whether the change in the above labor market variables from 1970 to 1990 in the United States can be traced to changes in the environment. A skill‐biased change in technology together with an increase in employment frictions can explain much of the observed variation in these variables.     

集聚经济、公共基础设施与劳动生产率——来自中国城市动态面板数据的证据

文章采用2001-2007年中国城市面板数据实证检验了集聚经济、公共基础设施与城市非农劳动生产率的关系。结果表明:在控制住其他影响因素后,一个地区的就业密度和公共基础设施对其非农劳动生产率都有着显著为正的影响,但在忽略城市公共基础设施的情况下,集聚经济的估计值明显偏高了。     

How important is the intermediate input channel in explaining sectoral employment comovement over the business cycle?

This paper investigates both analytically and quantitatively the role of intersectoral linkages in explaining sectoral employment comovement over the business cycle. We use a multisector dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model calibrated to the 2-digit SIC level intermediate input-use and capital-use tables and sectoral productivity shocks. With indivisible labor implying constant marginal utility of leisure, intersectoral linkages at the disaggregated level generate strong employment comovement across sectors. With divisible labor, however, procyclical marginal utility of leisure can dominate intersectoral linkages, implying some negative comovement. It further requires some form of the difficulty in reallocating labor across sectors, so that the substitutability of labor supply across sectors is relatively low. With divisible labor, a limited substitution of labor hours across sectors is shown to generate strong employment comovement over the business cycle.     

出口、产业结构和生产率变动：来自制造业与生产者服务业的证据

经济转型需要生产和就业结构的根本改变。生产率提高带来资源尤其是劳动力资源的优化配置。然而,这种优化配置的出现在不同行业具有不同的特点,并且其影响因素也各不相同。本文利用2001-2007年的数据采用份额转换方法测定了制造业和生产者服务业的生产率变化以及劳动力资源的配置变化,然后,从多个层面分析了出口等因素对制造业和生产者服务业的影响,其中出口对资源配置的影响在中、高技术的制造业和生产者服务业中有较积极的影响。     

Evolution of Female Labor Force Participation in the United States: 1967 to 2003

This paper describes the changes in the employment choices of prime working-age women from 1967 to 2003. A neoclassical labor market participation model is presented and applied to data from the March Current Population Surveys (CPS). The paper provides a new insight: It highlights the different patterns of labor force participation by family-status categories. Also, the paper introduces the average annual unemployment rate at the state level as an explanatory variable to capture the demand-side constraint of the labor market. The results of the paper support the finding that since 1990, the increase in the participation of women in the labor force has slowed from previous decades.An earlier draft of this paper was presented at the 59th International Atlantic Economic Conference, London, England, March 9–13, 2005.