刍议我国农产品贸易政策改革

在国际贸易领域内,农产品贸易一直处于极其特殊的地位。农业所具有的基础性地位使其关联着粮食安全、环境保护、国内政治等诸多问题。中国是一个农业大国,农业在国民经济中处于极其重要的地位。基于对上述问题的思考,以及长期以来对农业问题的关注和对农业经济学的兴趣,本文从农产品贸易自由化与农业政策变革之间的互动关系进行了分析。     

我国农业补贴制度改革与现代农业的发展

尽管世界在朝着更加自由开放的方向前进，尽管农业补贴引起了诸多的国际矛盾和争端，但在推动我国现代农业发展方面，农业补贴作为一项制度安排仍然是不可或缺的。     

Climate change impacts on China's agriculture: The responses from market and trade

China's food security has been facing several challenges, which are likely to be worsened due to climate change. The purpose of this paper is to provide an evidence on the impacts of climate change on China's agriculture, with particular attention to the market and trade responses. Using projected crop yield changes for China and its' main trading partners under changing climate, we employ an agricultural partial equilibrium model (CAPSiM) and a linked national and global equilibrium model (CAPSiM-GTAP) to assess the impacts on food production, price, trade and self-sufficiency of China. Our results show that climate change will have significant effects on crop production though with large differences among crops. Under the worst climate change scenario RCP 8.5, wheat yield in China is projected to decline by 9.4% by 2050, which is the biggest yield reduction among the crops. However, the market can also respond to the climate change, as farmers can change inputs in response to reduced yields and rising prices. As a result, production losses for most crops are dampened. For example, wheat production loss under RCP8.5 reduces to only 4.3% due to market response. The adverse impacts on crop production will be further reduced after accounting for the trade response as farmers adjust production to much higher prices in the more severely affected countries. The paper concludes that we need to learn more from farmers who optimize their production decisions in response to the market and trade signals during climate change. A major policy implication is that policymakers need to mainstream the market and trade responses into national plans for climate adaptation.     

美国的农业政策和我国农业发展中的选择

美国长时期对农业的保护和扶植政策给我们很多启示。借鉴美国和其它西方国家的成功经验并结合我国的实际,有助于中国农业的现代化。     

改革开放早期我国“三农”政策的转轨及其特点

改革开放早期,我国的"三农"政策实现了历史性转轨:所有制上向公有制经济为主体,多种经济成分并存发展的转轨;经营制度上向以联产承包制为主要形式的农业生产责任制的转轨;生产结构上向农工商综合经营、农林牧副渔全面发展的多种经营的转轨;分配制度上向按劳分配为主、多种分配方式并存的转轨;政策范围上向农业、农民、农村全面覆盖和促进协调发展的转轨。这是不断解放思想的历史产物,是在不断争论中形成的实践结晶,是以调动农民积极性和发展生产力为导向形成的正确结论。     

Structural change in Malawi since independence: Consequences of a development strategy based on large-scale agriculture

This paper investigates the nature of the structural change which has occured in the Malawian economy since independence and identifies key policies pursued by the government which it is argued have been decisive in shaping this development. The salient feature of structural change is shown to be the rapid growth of large-scale agriculture, associated with an equally rapid transfer of labour into wage employment and a decline in the importance of peasant production. The implications of these changes for living standards and future development and policy are considered.     

Assessing the effects of Japanese industrial policy change during the 1960s

This paper provides a systematic analysis of the effects of the industrial policy change in the 1960s in Japan. We utilize a panel of 227 manufacturing industries between 1960 and 1969. We find that on the one hand, the removal of de facto import quotas had significantly negative effects on real output, real output per establishment, and employment. On the other hand, for those industries where import quotas were removed, tariff protection was effective in maintaining real output and employment. However, this does not necessarily mean the success of industrial policy change because neither tariff protection nor the removal of quotas contributed to productivity growth. In that sense, the industrial policy change had limited effects.     

Short-term effects of policy reform on tourism and the macroeconomy in Zimbabwe: Applied CGE analysis

This article applies a short-term computable general equilibrium model for Zimbabwe to trace the direct and indirect effects of policy on the macroeconomy and tourism. The results show that the main reason why benefits from tourism are bypassing the country is because of poorly sequenced macroeconomic policies and a negative political climate. As and when the national political situation stabilises and the economy begins to grow again, an urgent macroeconomic thrust should be to implement a credible macroeconomic stabilisation programme, consisting in the main of reduced fiscal deficits, flexible foreign exchange markets and tight monetary policies to rein in inflation. However, because Zimbabwe is in arrears, there can be no programmes or lending with the International Monetary Fund and World Bank. Getting the budget in order without aid money will be very tough indeed, and the alternative is worse. It means debt deflation by means of hyperinflation.     

改革以来海南宏观经济运行特点及相应的政策效果

改革开放20年来,我国经济以年均9%以上的实际增长率调整增长,在这一背景下,海南经济也得以较快发展,特别是1988年海南建省办经济特区以后,国内生产总值以年均12.9%的增长率高速增长,为海南经济起飞和科技进步以及市场化改革打下了良好的基础.但是,作为全国经济的一部分,海南经济运行也一直处于不稳定状态,且起落幅度较大,呈现出独特的运行特点.     

The regional effects of Indonesia's oil and gas policy: options for reform

This paper analyses the effects on the regions of Indonesia's fuel policy. It discusses how the sharing of oil and gas revenue and taxes between the centre and the regions affects the sub-national fiscal position, and examines the distribution of fuel subsidies across regions. The paper also examines the recent proposals to discontinue subsidising gasoline for private vehicles or to eliminate fuel subsidies altogether, and shows how the regions would be affected if these suggestions were adopted. We argue that the proposals would increase efficiency and equity and should therefore be implemented.     

Productivity growth in Indonesian agriculture, 1961–2000

This paper uses an index number approach to measure total factor productivity (TFP) growth in Indonesian crop and livestock agriculture from 1961 to 2000. Tornqvist-Theil chain-weighted indices of output, input and TFP are developed to minimise biases that may result from relative changes in input and output price aggregation weights. The results indicate that agricultural TFP growth accelerated in the 1970s and 1980s but stagnated in the 1990s. Without new efforts to increase productivity in agriculture, Indonesia's goal of using agricultural growth to generate broad-based rural development and further reduce poverty may be undermined.     

《农产品协议》框架下我国财政支农政策调整及策略

选择合适的国内支持措施,对于应对加入世贸后的挑战至关重要。作为世界贸易组织(WTO)正式成员的中国,必须遵守WTO的有关规则及我国加入世贸协议中的有关承诺,财政支农政策与措施亦应如此。为此,我们必须在WTO《农产品协议》的框架下,结合我国的现实情况,探究如何充分利用财政手段,在有限的空间内对农业提供财力能及的支持,并由此逐步调整我国财政支农政策,以支持农业发展。     

Productivity growth, technological progress, and efficiency change in chinese agriculture after rural economic reforms: A DEA approach

This study applies a data envelopment analysis (DEA) approach to analyze total factor productivity, technology, and efficiency changes in Chinese agricultural production from 1984 to 1993. Twenty-nine provinces in China were classified into advanced-technology and low-technology categories. The Malmquist (1953) productivity measures were decomposed into two components: technical change index and efficiency change index. The results show that total factor productivity has risen in most provinces for both technology categories during the 1984–1993 period. Technical progress was mostly attributed to Chinese agricultural productivity growth after the rural economic reforms. The deterioration in technical efficiency in many provinces indicates China has great potential to increase productivity through improved technical efficiency. Enhancing rural education and research and development (R&D) in agriculture may also help farmers to improve technical efficiency and productivity in agricultural production.     

在改革中发展的中国老龄产业

人口老龄化是经济发展和社会进步的必然结果,是世界人口发展的普遍规律。进入21世纪,我国开始步入人口老龄化时代。发展老龄产业已成为我国社会经济发展的必然要求。老龄产业在我国的兴起和发展反映了我国改革开放的辉煌成就。     

我国贸易多样性的影响因素和生产率增长——基于内延边际与外延边际的考察

依据Feenstra等人的检验方法,本文测算了中国省份层面的初级品和制成品贸易多样性,结果发现,制成品进口多样性的地区区域出现扩散形态,而出口多样性走向区域趋同.在计算样本期我国省份TFP指数基础上,研究进一步考察了贸易多样性与生产率增长的双向关联,结果发现,除了科研投入,贸易多样性成为我国生产率提高的重要因素;就贸易...