我国遭遇反倾销的双边影响因素分析——基于面板数据的研究

基于1981-2006年对中国发起反倾销起诉最多的三个国家的统计数据,通过模型分析和实证研究表明进口国经济增长率和汇率与我国遭遇反倾销起诉的次数成负相关;对外直接投资流量与遭遇反倾销起诉的次数存在正相关性;而这些相关系数能否通过显著性检验在不同国家存在差异.经验研究的结论为我国政府制定反倾销政策提供了理论依据.     

Antidumping decisions and macroeconomic variables in the USA

This paper investigates the macroeconomic factors that explain antidumping decisions in the US International Trade Commission. Johansen's cointegration test results show that there is a long run equilibrium relationship between growth of the percentage of affirmative antidumping decisions and trade balance. The error correction model shows that there is a causality running from the latter to the former. Growth of the percentage of affirmative antidumping decisions is revealed to cause slowdown in economic growth. Partisan characteristics are observed in the Commissioners' antidumping decisions.     

Antidumping under International Fragmentation: Evidence from China

Applying a negative binomial regression model, this paper investigates how Chinese exports have reshaped the global value chain and the use of antidumping. We use trade in value‐added statistics to distinguish between Chinese exports of intermediate and final products to its main trading partners, including the USA, Mexico, South Korea, the UK, Germany, France and Italy, among others, and find that other countries welcome China as an intermediate producer, although not necessarily as a final good producer. We also find that a higher level of fragmentation reduces the likelihood of antidumping initiation and measures.     

Mexico's Business Cycles and Synchronization with the USA in the Post‐NAFTA Years

A number of papers have investigated the increasing macroeconomic ties between Mexico and the USA. These studies have relied on linear models, however, making their results suspect. Other papers have investigated nonlinearity over the Mexican business cycle, but have not studied the links between the Mexican and US economies. In this paper a Markov‐switching model is employed to investigate the changing macroeconomic effect of the USA on Mexico. The findings show that the USA indeed appears to have a much larger impact since the passage of the North Atlantic Free Trade Association (NAFTA) than in previous years. Results also indicate that the level of foreign exchange reserves has much less predictive power for the Mexican economy since NAFTA. This suggests that the greater synchronization with the US business cycle may be more attributable to better macroeconomic management in Mexico than to the closer trade links.     

Inventories and antidumping: the case of orange juice trade

The United States and Brazil are key players in the international market for orange juice, mainly frozen concentrated orange juice (FCOJ). The U.S. orange juice industry benefits from one of the highest levels of import protection in U.S. agriculture. Additional trade protection was recently added with a U.S. industry victory in an antidumping trade suit against Brazil. We study the impact of FCOJ imports from Brazil on U.S. prices using time series econometric models and find only a weak FCOJ domestic price response to imports from Brazil, because extremely large U.S. inventories mute the price impact of any fluctuation in imports. Our findings imply that the antidumping tariffs were unjustified based on a material injury argument.     

The effect of macroeconomic variables on the opening of antidumping measures: A robust analysis for Brazilian and Argentine economy

This paper analyzes the influence of macroeconomic factors on the introduction of antidumping (AD ) cases in Brazil and in Argentina. Since this type of research does not have large samples, the relevant variables were selected via Sala‐i‐Martin's (1997) test. The results, estimated using Poisson models, revealed that Brazil and Argentina are influenced by macroeconomic factors. However, the traditional (aggregated) models tend to minimize this influence on Brazil and overestimate it on Argentina. We also found that domestic and foreign income growth, exchange rate devaluation, and a reduction in domestic prices could reduce the number of AD cases in both countries. Therefore, there is evidence that these countries are using the AD law as a political tool, shifting it from its main objective of avoiding unfair trade.     

Partisanship and antidumping

This paper empirically examines the influence of political partisanship on antidumping protection, which has become the most frequently used contingent trade remedy in the last 20 years. First, we show that the number of antidumping initiations from the labor intensive industries increases when there is a left-wing government in power. In addition, the evidence on the governments' decision to impose antidumping duty demonstrates that the increase in the leftist orientation of the governments is associated with an increase in the likelihood of an affirmative antidumping outcome from the petitions of labor intensive industries. Although antidumping is an administrative protection which includes a set of necessary procedures and rules to follow, our findings clearly point out the political bias in AD actions in the form of partisan preferences.     

Trade liberalization, antidumping, and safeguards: Evidence from India's tariff reform

This paper is the first to use product-level data to examine empirically whether countries use antidumping and safeguard exceptions to unwind commitments to lower tariffs in the face of domestic political-economic pressure. We focus on the case of India, a country that underwent a major exogenous tariff reform program in the early 1990s and subsequently initiated substantial use of safeguard and antidumping import restrictions. We first estimate structural determinants of India's import protection using the Grossman and Helpman (1994) model and provide evidence from its pre-reform tariff data of 1990 that is consistent with the theory. We then re-estimate the model on the Indian tariff data after the trade liberalization is complete and find that the model no longer fits, a result consistent with theory and evidence provided in other settings that India's 1991-1992 IMF arrangement can be interpreted as resulting in an exogenous shock to India's tariff policy. However, when we re-estimate the model on data from 2000-2002 that more completely reflects India's cross-product variation in import protection by including both its post-reform tariffs and its additional non-tariff barriers of antidumping and safeguard import protection, the significance of the Grossman and Helpman model determinant estimates is restored. We interpret these combined results as evidence that India unwound its commitment to reduce tariffs through use of antidumping and safeguard protection in the face of political-economic pressure. The estimates are also economically important and provide one explanation for separate results in the literature that the magnitude of import reduction associated with India's use of antidumping is similar to the initial import expansion associated with its tariff reform. Finally, we interpret the implications of our results for the burgeoning research literature examining the effects of liberalization on India's micro-level development.     

DEBT NONNEUTRALITY,POLICY INTERACTIONS,AND MACROECONOMIC STABILITY*

We study the consequences of nonneutrality of government debt for macroeconomic stabilization policy in a sticky‐price model. Ricardian equivalence fails because debt has a negative impact on its rate of return and on private savings, which is induced by assuming transaction services of bonds. Under aggressive monetary policy regimes, macroeconomic fluctuations tend to be stabilized if nominal budget deficits are low. A smooth debt path limits inflation expectations, such that inflation variances can be reduced. Under a balanced budget policy, the central bank's output gap–inflation volatility trade‐off is improved relative to an environment where debt is neutral.     

THE WTO AND ANTIDUMPING IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES

Since the 1995 inception of the World Trade Organization (WTO), developing countries have become some of the most frequent users of the WTO-sanctioned antidumping (AD) trade policy instrument. This paper exploits newly available data to examine sector-level use of nine of the major "new user" developing countries, matching data on production in 28 different three-digit ISIC industries to data on AD investigations, outcomes, and imports at the six-digit Harmonized System product level. We present economically significant evidence consistent with theory that developing-country industries that seek and receive AD import protection are responding to macroeconomic shocks, exhibit characteristics consistent with endogenous trade policy formation, and face some changing market conditions consistent with requirements of the WTO Antidumping Agreement. However, the evidence also suggests substantial heterogeneity in determinants of AD use across developing countries, which highlights the flexibility of this policy as a protectionist tool responsive to many different types of political-economic shocks.     

Does antidumping use contribute to trade liberalization in developing countries?

Abstract .  Some supporters of antidumping have argued that this procedure serves as a kind of 'safety valve' for protectionist pressure. In this paper, we investigate whether there is empirical evidence that the use of antidumping actions has contributed to ongoing tariff reductions over the period 1988 to 2004 in a sample of 23 developing countries, some of which have become aggressive users of antidumping in recent years. The evidence is not supportive of the safety valve argument for these countries. Instead, evidence suggests that past use of antidumping may have led to less rather than more trade liberalization.     

Stylised facts and other empirical evidence on firm dynamics,business cycle and growth

In this paper, we bring together, in a systematised fashion, the scattered empirical evidence relating firm dynamics with both short-run and long-run macroeconomic dynamics. There are numerous studies that focus on firm-level data while controlling for macroeconomic conditions. From these studies a fairly robust set of empirical regularities pertaining to entry, exit, growth and the size distribution of firms has emerged. However, the literature that focuses explicitly on the interplay between firm dynamics and the business cycle is roughly confined to the US experience and to the cyclical properties of firm entry and exit, while the studies about the relationship between firm dynamics and economic growth are limited and unsystematic. We also give a brief account of the most recent theoretical literature on firm dynamics and macroeconomic dynamics, and try to relate it to the empirical findings.     

An Antidumping Law Can Be procompetitive

Home and foreign duopolists collude in the absence of an antidumping (AD) law because competition law makes renegotiation of collusion more costly than imposition of punishment for defection. Introduction of an AD law with a weak injury standard can undermine collusion by providing a low-cost mechanism for renegotiation. This induces dumping by the foreign firm and defection by the home firm. An AD law can be procompetitive, in contrast to recent literature suggesting that an AD law can facilitate collusion. The law is asymmetric, providing a greater incentive for home-firm than foreign-firm deviation.     

From Agreement to Application: An Analysis of Determinations under the WTO Antidumping Agreement

Although the World Trade Organization's (WTO) Antidumping Agreement includes rules that govern the application of antidumping duties, countries still have a great deal of latitude in how they decide whether to impose this form of protection. This research is one of the first papers to explore country-specific differences in the determinants of antidumping injury decisions. Using a series of probit regressions, I compare the leading determinants of injury determinations in nine of the largest users of antidumping protection at the WTO. The results prove that investigating authorities in one country may be swayed by a very different set of economic and political factors than their counterparts in other countries.     

The effects of inflation targeting on Okun’s law

This article provides the first empirical evidence that the adoption of inflation targeting (IT) matters for the extent of tradeoff between unemployment and output, that is Okun’s law. Our full sample results indicate that IT leads to a more negative Okun’s coefficient, suggesting that, for a given reduction of output, the introduction of IT is associated with a higher unemployment rate. Subsample analyses reveal that the whole sample results are mainly driven by the industrial subsample outcomes, not the developing counterparts. Our findings point out that IT not only influences macroeconomic variables per se but also affects the relationship between/among macroeconomic variables.     

基于KLR信号分析的美国对华反倾销预警研究

美国国际贸易委员会的关于反倾销产业损害的调查和裁决有相对稳定的程序和方法,因此基于产业损害调查的反倾销预警是可能的。本文将主要用于金融危机预警领域的KLR信号分析法引入美国对华反倾销预警研究,并通过引入显著性强的否决性指标,解决KLR分析法过多考虑系统稳健性,对突发因素不敏感的问题。通过对2003—2009年美国国际贸易委员会发起反倾销产业损害调查的大量案例进行分析,结合其他文献的研究结果,得到了8种预警指标,并计算得到了相应的阈值。从而形成了一套实用的预警方法。通过对2009年的三个案例进行验证性计算,结果表明这套预警方法具有良好的效果。     

美国实质性阻碍损害标准的立法演进与背景

损害认定是反倾销法中的重要因素,而损害认定中实质性阻碍国内产业建立标准,对于还存在大量未建立新兴产业的发展中国家来说更为重要.除了分析美国反倾销法中实质性阻碍标准立法发展之外,还需考察其在其他进口经济法律中的规定,以期为我国的反倾销立法提供有益的借鉴.     

On wage- and profit-led demand regimes: learning from the evidence

Abstract

This paper contributes to the empirical research around the “wage-led” or “profit-led” demand regimes. It first reviews how Kalecki, and then Steindl, approached the relationship between economic growth and income distribution. Then, empirical analysis carried out under the probabilistic approach to econometric modeling shows statistical evidence, estimated through cointegration analysis, that in the long run, in three very open economies—Mexico, France, and Korea—the wage share is positively associated with demand and output. It finally discusses the macroeconomic dilemma that almost all countries have to face, i.e., a positive effect of a high-wage policy on demand and employment may diverge from a negative effect on output compatible with external equilibrium.     

股权多元化、公司业绩与行业竞争性

以相对净资产收益率和主营业务利润率为被解释变量 ,以股权构成为解释变量 ,本文系统考察了股权结构对上市公司业绩的影响。在对行业、公司规模和宏观经济条件等因素加以控制后 ,使用来自电子电器、商业和公用事业三个行业上市公司的数据 ,我们的回归分析和假设检验表明法人股和流通股对企业业绩有正面影响、国有股有负面影响的预期只在竞争性较强的电子电器行业成立 ,在竞争性相对较弱的其他两个行业则不成立。这一研究发现的政策含义在于 ,为了使通过上市实现国有企业股权结构多元化的政策发挥所期望的作用 ,首先应尽量提高行业的竞争性。     

Expansions and contractions in Brazil, Colombia and Mexico: A view through nonlinear models

The study of asymmetric behavior of macroeconomic variables over business cycles has had a long tradition in economics. In this present work, we find evidence in favor of the hypothesis of having a STAR-type nonlinear asymmetric behavior of the economic activity, over the last two decades, in three Latin American countries: Brazil, Colombia, and Mexico. For Chile and Venezuela, the null hypothesis of a linear process could not be rejected under the method established by Granger and Teräsvirta [Granger, C.W.J., Teräsvirta, T., 1993. Modelling Nonlinear Relationships. Oxford University Press, New York]. Economic activity is proxied by monthly based industrial production indexes. Evidence of asymmetric behavior is also found according to the generalized impulse response functions analysis for the three countries.