谁将挑战美元

1976年以来,美元作为国际货币的作用逐渐减弱,一些新兴市场经济体的货币开始登上历史舞台。而美元作为国际货币的地位并没有发生直线下降,尤其是2010年以来,美元在各国中央银行外汇储备中的占比止跌企稳,在外汇市场交易中的占比也开始回升。目前来看,欧元和人民币均难以替代美元。但未来美元仍存在被其他货币超越和取代的可能。     

Optimal informed trading in the foreign exchange market

We formulate a market microstructure model of exchange determination that we employ to investigate the impact of informed trading on exchange rates and on foreign exchange (FX) market conditions. With our formulation, we show how strategic informed agents influence exchange rates via both the portfolio-balance and information effects. We outline the connection which exists between the private value of information, market efficiency, liquidity and exchange rate volatility. Our model is also consistent with recent empirical research on the micro-structure of FX markets.     

Heterogeneous real-time trading strategies in the foreign exchange market

The foreign exchange (FX) market is worldwide, but the dealers differ in their geographical locations (time zones), working hours, time horizons, home currencies, access to information,transaction costs, and other institutional constraints. The variety of time horizones is large: from intra-day dealers, who close their positions every evening, to long-term investors and central banks. Depending on the constraints, the different market participats need different strategies to reach their goal, which is usually maximizing the profit, or rather a utility function including risk. Different intra-day trading strategies can be studied only if high-density data are available. Oslen & Associates (O & A) has collected and analysed large amounts of FX quotes by market makers around the clock (up to 5000 non-equally spaced prices per day for the German mark against US$). Based on these data, a set of real-time intra-day trading models has been developed. These models give explicit trading recommendations under realistic constraints. They are allowed to trade only during the opening hours of a market, depending on the time zone and local holidays. The models have been running real-time for more than three years, thus leading to an ex ante test. The test results, obtained with a risk-sensitive performance measure, are presented. All these trading models are profitable, but they differ in their risk behaviour and dealing frequency. If a certain profitable intra-day algorithm is tested with different working hours, its success can considerably change. A systematic study shows that the best choice of working hours is usually when the most important markets for the particular FX rate are active. All the results demonstrate that the assumption of a homogeneous 24-hour FX market with identical dealers, following an identical ‘rational expectation’, is far from reality. To explain the market dynamics, a heterogeneous model of the market with different types of dealers is more appropriate.     

Financial intermediation and the role of price discrimination in the foreign exchange market

Foreign exchange trading is performed in opaque and decentralized markets. The two-tier market structure consisting of a customer segment and an interdealer segment to which only market makers have access gives rise to the possibility of price discrimination. We develop a theoretical pricing model that accounts for market-power considerations and analyze a database of the trades of a foreign exchange market maker. We find that the market maker generally exerts low bargaining power vis-á-vis customers. The dealer earns lower average spreads on trades with financial customers than commercial customers, even though the former are perceived to convey exchange-rate-relevant information.     

European foreign exchange market efficiency: Evidence based on crisis and noncrisis periods

This study investigates the impact on foreign exchange market efficiency of the 1992 European financial market crisis by studying precrisis, crisis, and postcrisis periods. Long-term relationships among European currency values are identified during the three periods, although the relationships are not stable during the precrisis and the postcrisis periods. These results may be due to one or more of the following: (1) market inefficiency, (2) a risk premium, or (3) common policy guidelines for European monetary system (EMS) members. Evidence of market inefficiency is strong. Forecasting results demonstrate better performance by an error correction model (ECM) than by a random walk model (RWM) for the British pound and German mark, while results for the French franc and Italian lira are mixed. Dominance tests using Granger causality indicate only weak German mark dominance both in the short and long run.     

U.S. and Latin American stock market linkages

This paper examines to what extent the Latin American equity markets of Argentina, Brazil, Chile and Mexico have become more integrated with the US equity market. We empirically measure integration by finding the dynamic conditional correlation (DCC) between each market and that in the U.S. using a DCC multivariate GARCH model. We then track how these correlations evolve over time using a smooth transition model which not only shows when greater integration first occurred but also how long it took these correlations to transition to their new levels. Our sample period stretches from December 30th, 1988 to March 26th, 2004. Results show an increase in the degree of co-movement between these countries’ equity returns and those in the U.S. although the magnitude and speed of these increases greatly varies across these four countries.     

Asymmetric foreign exchange risk exposure: Evidence from U.S. multinational firms

This paper examines how U.S. multinational firms are affected by foreign currency movements. In light of detailed exchange rate data, we find that 29% of our sample of 935 U.S. firms with real operations in foreign countries is significantly affected by currency movements between 1990 and 2001. Results show moreover that U.S. stock returns react asymmetrically to currency movements. By introducing nonlinearity in foreign currency risk exposure, we noticeably increase the precision and the significance of exposure estimates. We demonstrate moreover that asymmetries are more pronounced towards large versus small currency fluctuations than over depreciation and appreciation cycles.     

金融宏观调控与外汇管理市场化选择

该文论述了金融宏观调控与外汇管理市场化选择的关系,分析了在现阶段尽快实现外汇管理向市场化方向转变的重要性和迫切性,并对如何加快外汇管理的市场化改革,以推进人民币跨境业务发展和提高跨境资本流动监管的有效性进行了论证。     

The interrelatedness of global equity markets, money markets, and foreign exchange markets

This article investigates different aspects of global financial markets, specifically relationships among equity markets, money markets, and foreign exchange markets across countries. To represent the three major financial markets of the world, Japan is the proxy for Asia, Germany is the proxy for Europe, and the United States is the proxy for North America. Strong evidence exists that international money markets and international equity markets are becoming increasingly integrated over time. This article incorporates foreign exchange values as partial determinants of equity returns and money market returns and investigates the interactions among these three asset markets from a global perspective.     

Bid-ask bounce and speads in the foreign exchange futures market

This paper examines the intraday bid-ask bounce in Deutschemark and Japanese yen futures prices. The intraday Markovian bid-ask bounce process, which leads to a desirable equilibrium condition of reaching a bid or an ask transaction type with equal chances, is identified. A second-order Markov chain transition matrix model is used to derive a generalized estimator of bid-ask spreads in the foreign exchange futures market. It incorporates the conditional probabilities of a subsequent transaction being the same type as the current transaction's () and that of the next transaction being the same as the current type but different from the previous type (). The specification is {-Cov(P _t ,P _t+1 )/[(1–)(–)]}^1/2. The empirical results show that the average implied bid-ask spread is about $10, which is less than one tick's value of $12.50. It is also found that spreads are higher at the beginning and end of the trading day than the rest of the day, reflecting the uncertainty due to information flows and overnight inventory carrying costs, respectively.     

Do foreign purchases of U.S. stocks help the U.S. stock market?

This paper investigates the relationship between the U.S. S&P 500 stock market and purchases of U.S. corporation stocks by foreign investors. Estimations using monthly data from 1978:1 to 2008:7 under various methodologies show that, controlling for asset prices (interest rates and the yield curve) and inflation, purchases of U.S. stocks by foreign investors have a positive and statistically significant impact on the U.S. stock market performance. We also show that their relationship is time variant. In a global world, the demand-side variable captured by the foreign appetite for U.S. stocks attenuates the negative effects associated with the domestic forces.     

Predictability of nonlinear trading rules in the U.S. stock market

Most of the existing technical trading rules are linear in nature. This paper investigates the predictability of nonlinear time series model based trading strategies in the U.S. stock market. The performance of the nonlinear trading rule is compared with that of the linear model based rules. It is found that the self-exciting threshold autoregressive (SETAR) model based trading rules perform slightly better than the AR rules for the Dow Jones and Standard and Poor 500, while the AR rules perform slightly better in the NASDAQ market. Both the SETAR and the AR rules outperform the VMA rules. The results are confirmed by bootstrap simulations.     

Information and volatility links in the foreign exchange market

We apply the trading model of Fleming et al (1998 ). to a number of currency markets. The model posits that two markets can have common volatility structures as a result of receiving common information and from cross‐hedging activity where a position in one currency is used to hedge risk in a position taken in another. Our results imply that the model is effective in identifying common information flows and volatility spillovers in the currency markets and that some of these effects are lost when simply examining raw correlations. A series of specification tests of the 21 bivariate systems that are examined provides support for the trading model in the foreign exchange context.     

全球外汇衍生品交易的发展特点及启示

该文根据国际清算银行对全球外汇衍生品交易的调查统计情况,对全球外汇衍生品交易及主要交易货币的在岸与离岸外汇衍生品交易的发展特点进行了归纳,以期为国内外汇衍生品市场的发展提供借鉴。文章指出,结合本国汇率和资本项目管理体制改革逐步取消外汇衍生品交易的实需原则,有利于在维护金融稳定的前提下进一步发展本国的外汇衍生品市场。     

Conditional volatility persistence and volatility spillovers in the foreign exchange market

I investigate the magnitudes and determinants of volatility spillovers in the foreign exchange (FX) market, using realized measures of volatility and heterogeneous autoregressive (HAR) models. I confirm both meteor shower effects (i.e., inter-regional volatility spillovers) and heat wave effects (i.e., intra-regional volatility spillovers) in the FX market. Furthermore, I find that conditional volatility persistence is the dominant channel linking the changing market states of each region to future volatility and its spillovers. Market state variables contribute to more than half of the explanatory power in predicting conditional volatility persistence, with the model that calibrates volatility persistence and spillovers conditionally on market states performing statistically and economically better. The utilization of market state variables significantly extends our understanding of the economic mechanisms of volatility persistence and spillovers and sheds new light on econometric techniques for volatility modeling and forecasting.     

世界外汇储备结构概览及比较分析

该文通过对世界外汇储备货币结构和资产结构的比较分析,以及对主要国际储备货币汇率变动同外汇储备规模之间的对比关系分析,评述了世界外汇储备货币结构和资产结构的变动特点;同时结合个别国家的经验教训,就“去美元化”问题和“外汇储备投资多元化”问题进行了深入探讨。     

Macroeconomic announcements and price discovery in the foreign exchange market

This study shows that the dominance of the overlapping trading hours of London and New York in the price discovery of the EUR/USD and USD/JPY markets only applies on days with U.S. announcements. Different from Cai et al. (2008) and Wang and Yang (2011), we highlight the informational advantage of local traders at the arrival of macroeconomic announcements in the local market, and find that macroeconomic announcements affect the pattern of price discovery across different markets, consistent with Chen and Gau (2010) and Jiang et al. (2012). We also examine changes in information shares before and after the announcement. A significant increase in price discovery before the announcement suggests the possibility of information leakage, while enhanced price discovery efficacy after the announcement suggests that prices gradually adjust to new information, not just immediately respond to the arrival of announcements.     

Trading the foreign exchange market with technical analysis and Bayesian Statistics

In this study, the profitability of technical analysis and Bayesian Statistics in trading the EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and USD/JPY exchange rates are examined. For this purpose, seven thousand eight hundred forty-six technical rules are generated, and their profitability is assessed through a data snooping procedure. Then, the most promising rules are combined with a Naïve Bayes, a Relevance Vector Machine, a Dynamic Model Averaging, a Dynamic Model Selection and a Bayesian regularized Neural Network model. The findings show that technical analysis has value in foreign exchange trading, but the profit margins are small. On the other hand, Bayesian Statistics seems to increase the profitability of technical rules up to five times.     

U.S. real exchange rate fluctuations and relative price fluctuations

Traditional theory attributes fluctuations in real exchange rates to changes in the relative price of nontraded goods. This paper studies the relation between the United States’ bilateral real exchange rate and the associated bilateral relative price of nontraded goods for five of its most important trade relationships. We find that this relation depends crucially on the choice of price series used to measure relative prices and on the choice of trade partner. The relation is stronger when we measure relative prices using producer prices rather than consumer prices. The relation is stronger the more important is the trade relationship between the United States and a trade partner. Even in cases where there is a strong relation between the real exchange rate and the relative price of nontraded goods, however, a large fraction of real exchange rate fluctuations is due to deviations from the law of one price for traded goods.     

Volatility spillover in the foreign exchange market: the Indian experience

We find evidence of significant volatility co-movements and/or spillover from different financial markets to the forex market in India. Among a large number of variables examined, volatility spillovers from domestic stock, government securities, overnight index swap, Ted spread and international crude oil markets to the foreign exchange market are found to be significant. There is evidence of asymmetric reactions in the forex market volatility. Comparisons between pre-crisis and post-crisis volatility indicate that the reform measures and changes in financial markets microstructure during the crisis period had significant impact on volatility spillover. During the post-crisis period, the lagged volatility component that represents persistent or fundamental changes had significant spillover effect on forex volatility, rather than the temporary shocks component. There is evidence of a decline in the asymmetric response in the forex volatility during the post-crisis period in India.