义利之辨:民国时期天津市小本借贷处成立之初的官商博弈

天津小本借贷处是天津市政府针对小本工商业者设立的借贷机构.由于缺少资金政府便向银行借贷.政府得到了银行贷款,银行让渡了会计和经理等重要岗位的人事权.在天津地方政府和天津商界的共谋之下,救国基金化为实业基金并在此基础上建立了市民银行,小本借贷处挂靠其下,由一个“官办商督”机构变成了“官督商办”的机构.政府与商界的博弈中,显示了国家和社会既有合作也存在矛盾,他们的合作与矛盾是社会经济系统中不同职能关系的反映,同时也表明小本借贷的成功需要在国家和社会之间建立稳定的信任关系.     

利而不害 为而不争——评联合国秘书长潘基文

联合围大会192个成员国代表于2011年6月21日一致通过了安全理事会对现任秘书长潘基文的连任推荐。在随后发表的就职演说中，潘基文援引中国古代哲学家老子“天之道，利而不害；圣人之道，为而不争”的名言，强调要将这种智慧应用到工作中，与各国一起共同应对当今世界的挑战。“利而不害、为而不争”是潘基文过去5年的工作作风，体现了潘基文的个人风格和他担任秘书长这一职位的特点，也将成为他今后5年的工作指南。     

高校建设中对成果转化的负面影响与对策

当前，高校界将教育体制和运行机制中不适应日益深化的经济、政治和科技体制改革的部分进行革新，开始了扩大规模，增强效益和提高办学档次的角逐上。实力雄厚的高校都在摩拳擦掌，奋力拚搏“２１”工程，实力一般的高校也都在谋求发展，争上新台阶。然而，任何事物都是一个相对稳定的“生态系统”，过分强调一个方面或不顾事物的内部规律与联系，必然会引发其他方面弊端的产生。在高校建设争上新台阶的大阴影下，本来就薄弱的科技成果转化工作，便受到了进一步的冲击。主要负面因素办学系统失衡，未形成有效积累和良性循环，导致成果转化缓…     

蓝天商厦成功的奥秘何在?——靠“三争”赢得高效益

<正> 在当前市场疲软的情况下,商业企业如何克服困难,扩大销售,提高经济效益?晋城市蓝天商厦靠“三争”获得高效益的做法,为商业企业提供了可资借鉴的宝贵经验。第一争:管理争严一是进货管理。他们在商品采购上坚持适时适量,根据季节变化,结合商品余缺,拟定进货品种和数量,保证大路商品不脱销断档,名优新产品及时购进。在进货上实行严格监控,建立了“进货档     

四联总处与战时西南地区的通货膨胀

抗日战争时期(简称“战时”)国统区的通货膨胀极为典型,并以西南地区为最甚。而国民政府的最高金融机构——四联总处的金融制度、金融服务与这一时期的通货膨胀有着最直接的联系,并对西南地区经济造成很大的影响。本文具体从四联总处的法币过量发行、反通货膨胀措施与失败,以及西南地区通货膨胀加剧在工农业经济方面的反映等方面展开论述。     

民企融资难问题的成因及对策

民营中小型企业,在直接和间接融资中的阻碍不外乎有以下几点：1、各大商业银行普遍存在对大企业“争贷”和对小企业“惜贷”的现象。民企融资活动中遇到的一个阻碍就是社会信用体系不全,与银行的信息不对称。尽管中央银行的信贷政策鼓励商业银行增加对中小企业的贷款,但出于安全性考虑,各商业银行往往集中力量抓大客户而不愿向小企业放贷,对大企业“争贷”和对小企业“借贷”的结果,     

论货殖家商争思想的孙子兵法渊源

货殖家 ,是先秦到西汉前期存在过的一个独立的学术思想流派。货殖家留下的思想资料主要集中在司马迁《史记·货殖列传》中 ,其主要代表人物是春秋战国之际的陶朱公和战国中期的白圭。货殖家商争思想在许多方面受兵家尤其是《孙子》的影响。货殖家商争思想与孙子兵法的联系 ,主要包括以下四个方面 :军争“任势”与商争“任时” ;“兵之情主速”与“趋时若猛兽挚 (鸷 )鸟之发” ;军争“取与观”的启示 ;“将帅五德”与“商才四品”。     

真水无香——访福建水泥老总盖小健

老子云，“上善若水，水利万物而不争”。孔子说过，水有“五德”，“流几百丈山间而不惧”，“浩大无尽”，利万物而不事张扬，真正的企业家总是让人想起古人赞颂水的品德。     

企业竞争优势源于顾客价值的经济学分析

军事战略的背景是战争，企业战略的背景是竞争。“竞争”之词，在郭象注《庄子·齐物论》中有解释，“并逐日竞，对辩日争”。并逐是在赛跑，而非对抗；对辩是面对面的争斗。据此“竞争”之意便有两说，既有竞之意，也有争之说。     

低噪声微表处混合料的配合比设计方法及应用

微表处技术在我国沥青路面养护中被广泛的应用,但普遍反映微表处比普通沥青路面的行车噪声大，影响了行车的舒适性和安全性，长期处于高分贝的环境中，容易使人的反应能力下降，心情紧张、烦躁，严重时会诱发交通事故，社会反映强烈，噪声问题一定程度上制约了微表处技术发展。如何根据交通噪声产生的机理及特点，控制、减少微表处噪声污染，是公路建设者值得深入研究的课题。本文主要对低噪声微表处混合料的配合比设计进行研究，其研究成果在安徽合安高速,合芜高速进行了应用，并取得了良好的效果。     

Evidence of a modest price decline in US broadband services

In this paper, we construct a consumer price index for broadband services in the United States using over 1500 service contracts offered by DSL and cable providers from 2004 through 2009. This exercise frames a range of open questions about measuring price changes in a manner that informs policy discussions about US broadband services. We employ approaches used commonly for constructing a consumer price index by using a mix of matched-model methods and hedonic price index estimations to adjust for qualitative improvements. We find a quality-adjusted price decline, but the evidence points towards a modest decline at most. Our estimates of the price decline range from 3% to 10% in quality-adjusted terms for the 5-years period, which is faster than the BLS estimates for the last 3 years. In contrast to other innovative industries that experience rapid price declines, such as computers or integrated circuits, the modest price decline for broadband services raises many questions.     

Staff engagement: it starts with the leader

Engagement can happen if you can take care of yourself first and respect the need for recovery times. It's very hard to find an engaged staff when the leader/manager is disengaged. Engagement is contagious. As leaders model engagement and connection, the staff will follow. Unfortunately, disengagement is also contagious and can create disastrous results.     

Estimating the effects of forward guidance in rational expectations models

Simulations of forward guidance in rational expectations models should be assessed using the “modest policy interventions” framework introduced by Eric Leeper and Tao Zha. That is, the estimated effects of a policy intervention should be considered reliable only if that intervention is unlikely to trigger a revision in private sector beliefs about the way that monetary policy will be conducted. I show how to constrain simulations of forward guidance to ensure that they are regarded as modest policy interventions and illustrate the technique using a medium-scale DSGE model estimated on US data. I find that many experiments that generate the large responses of macroeconomic variables deemed implausible by many economists – the so-called “forward guidance puzzle” – are not modest policy interventions. Those experiments should therefore be treated with caution, since they may prompt agents to believe that there has been a change in the monetary policy regime that is not accounted for within the model. More reliable results can be obtained by constraining the experiment to be a modest policy intervention. In the cases I study, the quantitative effects on macroeconomic variables are more plausible when this constraint is imposed.     

What do capital inflows do? Dissecting the transmission mechanism for Thailand, 1980–1996

This paper examines the effects of private financial (non-FDI) capital inflows in Thailand in the pre-crisis period (1980:I–1996:IV). Private capital inflows are found to be associated with higher asset prices, lower lending rates, surges in bank lending and domestic spending driven by higher investment, higher output, modest inflation, and modest real exchange rate appreciation. Inflows are also associated with a greater vulnerability to a liquidity crisis, but not with greater external solvency risk. Current account deficits are temporary, thus sustainable, as exports catch up with higher imports within two years. Consequently, the Thai crisis appears to be more of a liquidity crisis than an external solvency crisis.     

Modest macroeconomic effects of monetary policy shocks during the great moderation: An alternative interpretation

Cholesky-VAR impulse responses estimated with post-1984 U.S. data predict modest macroeconomic reactions to monetary policy shocks. We interpret this evidence by employing an estimated medium-scale DSGE model of the business cycle as a Data-Generating Process in a Monte Carlo exercise in which a Cholesky-VAR econometrician is asked to estimate the effects of an unexpected, temporary increase in the policy rate. Our structural DSGE model predicts conventional macroeconomic reactions to a policy shock. In contrast, our Monte Carlo VAR results replicate our evidence obtained with actual U.S. data. Hence, modest macroeconomic effects may very well be an artifact of Cholesky-VARs. A combination of supply and demand shocks may be behind the inability of Cholesky-VARs to replicate the actual macroeconomic responses. The difference in the VAR responses obtained with Great Inflation vs. Great Moderation data may be due to instabilities in the parameters related to households’ and firms’ programs, more than to a more aggressive systematic monetary policy. A Monte Carlo assessment of sign restrictions as an alternative identification strategy is also proposed.     

Policies to stimulate growth: should we invest in health or education?

Empirical studies in the literature on economic growth have focused on the affect of education and yet Knowles and Owen (1995, 1997) found health, proxied by life expectancy, to be highly statistically significant with education having a modest role. This study extends their model and employs variables that are more conducive to policy formulation: calorific intake and school enrolment ratios. Results suggest that reducing undernutrition would only make a modest contribution to economic growth while increasing enrolment ratios, especially secondary, has a positive and more significant effect. Policies to increase economic growth should favour investments in education over health.     

Why the money multiplier has remained persistently so low in the post-crisis United States?

The money multiplier collapsed in the USA in the wake of the Lehman crisis, and since then it remained at particularly low levels. The main reason for this collapse is to be found in the significant increase in banks’ excess reserves and the modest increase in deposits. The weak growth of deposits resulted from a contained growth of loans. Most scholars attribute the latter to the low propensity of banks to grant credit. Using quarterly data for the period 1991–2017 we estimate a demand for loans by firms and households. We show that the modest increase in deposits and the persistence of low levels of the US money multiplier has been due to the weak demand for loans by the private sector.     

PARTIAL PRIVATIZATION IN A MIXED DUOPOLY WITH AN R&D RIVALRY

This paper is the first to examine the incentive for partial privatization in a mixed duopoly with R&D rivalry. We show that because mixed duopolies engage in more R&D, the optimal extent of privatization is unambiguously reduced. Yet, this reduction is often very modest. Adopting the extent of privatization that would be optimal if one ignored the R&D rivalry routinely results in greater welfare than retaining a fully public firm and ignoring partial privatization. Only when R&D has an extremely low cost would it be preferable to ignore partial privatization.     

Assessing the impact of the 2004 Olympic Games on the Greek economy: A small macroeconometric model

This paper examines the impact of the Athens 2004 Olympic Games on the Greek economy. Using a small aggregate macroeconometric model we find evidence to support the view that the Olympics is an event that could successfully boost the economy of the host city by generating benefits that outweigh the preparation cost. Consistent with recent literature in this area, whilst the impact effects are quite strong during the preparation phase and the year the Games took place, the long-term economic legacy effects appear to be quite modest.     

The fundamental difficulty in basing macroeconomic policy on microeconomic theory

Microeconomic theory is the theory of individual choice. For macroeconomic problems to be analyzed and solutions proposed with microeconomic theory, such problems must be capable of being defined in individualistic terms. It is argued that individuals can never perceive truly social problems requiring collective action in a manner consistent with the requirements of microeconomic theory. Even reformulating microeconomic theory to allow for interpersonal comparisons of utility, individuals may not be able to perceive the nature of social concerns in a manner necessary to support individually motivated actions bringing forth a solution.