衡量房价合理回归标准的思考

房价合理回归就是要通过对房价的调控使其回到合理水平,它体现了中央政府对房价调控的决心和信心,反映了城镇居民的心声和期待。判断房价是否合理回归,一看房价是否与城镇居民收入相适应;二看房价是否与成本和合理利润相匹配。要促进房价合理回归,必须坚持房价调控政策不动摇,巩固房价调控成果;努力降低商品住房成本,制止开发商暴利行为;理顺收入分配关系,增加城镇居民收入;加大保障性住房建设力度,构建住房保障体系;抑制住房投机需求,维护市场秩序,以实现房价调控目标。     

高房价的成因与房产税改革构想

近年来我国房价大幅度上涨,居高不下的房价不仅给百姓生活带来的巨大压力,也给国民经济健康发展造成了极大的困扰,因此政府部门应对房价进行有效干预。房产税具有取得财政收入、调节房产收益、影响经济运行的功能,但现行房产税制却违背了税收量能负担原则、削弱了税收调节分配功能,应借鉴房产税改革试点城市的经验,加快房产税制改革的步伐,以促进房产市场价格回归理性,更好地保障房地产市场持续、健康有序发展。     

经济适用房、土地价格与住宅价格——基于我国29个省级面板数据的实证研究

本文采用省级面板数据,研究经济适用房、土地价格与住宅价格之间的关系。研究发现:(1)土地出让价格、经济适用房价格和住宅价格之间存在长期均衡关系,土地出让价格和经济适用房对住宅价格的影响力度存在区域性差异;(2)短期内,经济适用房的替代效应大于收入效应,其供给有利于平抑商品房价格的上涨趋势;长期内,经济适用房的收入效应大于替代效应,其供给会起到推高房价的作用;(3)土地价格对住宅价格的长、短期影响效应均为正,但影响力度存在区域差异。     

经济适用房的历史地位与改革方向

经济适用房曾被赋予了我国住房供应体系的主体的地位.五年多来,经济适应房建设取得了巨大的成效,也暴露出了严重的缺陷.本文从改革与发展两个角度研究了经济适用房的发展历程与成就,探讨了其内在缺陷,论证了在我国中低价位的商品房市场正在形成,并且在两年左右的时间内,低价商品房市场将与经济适用房市场现实地形成竞争.在此基础上,本文认为经济适用房作为我国住房体制改革的阶段性措施已初步完成了它的历史使命.随着客观条件的变化,经济适用房建设应逐步让位于普通的商品房市场.     

随机利率下住房反向抵押贷款的定价与应用

文章基于考虑老年人对养老金的需求不断增大,以及养老保障应具备抵御通货膨胀的能力等事实,运用精算法对传统的住房反向抵押贷款的定价模型进行了推广和改进,建立了联合随机利率下包含房价变动和房产折旧等影响因素的终身给付的住房反向抵押贷款定价模型,给出了多种支付方式下的定价公式及其近似公式,并通过一组实例验证了模型的正确性和合理性,为贷款机构制定住房反向抵押贷款价格提供了一定的依据。     

A Structuralist Inflation Curve

This paper presents a structuralist model of inflation and applies it to the US economy. The model uses a mark‐up rule to specify inflation as a function of income distribution and capacity utilization, as usual in structuralist macroeconomics, but it also includes inflation expectations, the government's inflation target and cost pressures from non‐labor inputs as explaining variables. The model shows how inflation and income distribution, measured by the wage share of income, are connected through an inflation curve in the long run.     

Housing Development and Urbanisation in China

Rapid urbanisation and rising income have led to a strong demand for housing in urban China. However, housing development has been distorted by speculation, income inequality and lack of government support for low‐cost houses. In recent years, house prices become so high, making the vast majority of urban residents unable to afford, whereas rich families are able to buy many and leave them vacant. Income inequality is a major cause for rising house prices, which, in turn, exaggerates income inequality further. This vicious relationship has caused social tension between the rich and the poor and unhappiness among the middle‐ and low‐income groups. This paper discusses the factors responsible for the housing bubble in China and recommends appropriate policies to resolve this problem.     

Fiscal policy and regional inflation in a currency union

Substantial attention has been devoted to inflation differentials within the European Monetary Union, including suggestions that inflation differentials are a policy issue for national governments. This paper investigates the ability of a region participating in a currency union to affect its inflation differential with respect to the union through fiscal policy. In a two-region general equilibrium model with traded and nontraded goods, lowering the labor income tax rate in response to positive inflation differentials succeeds in compressing inflation differentials. Such policies can lead to higher volatility of domestic inflation while leaving the volatility of real output roughly unchanged. Regional fiscal policies also have spill-over effects on the volatility of union-wide and foreign inflation in our model.     

Housing wealth effect in emerging economies

In this paper I estimate the impact of changes in real and financial wealth on private consumption for a panel of 17 emerging economies from Asia and Central and Eastern Europe. Households' consumption, income and the two measures of real and financial wealth – proxied by house and stock market prices – are found to be difference-stationary and co-integrated; by means of recent econometric techniques for heterogeneous panels, i.e. the pooled mean group estimator, inference is drawn about the long- and short-run relationships between the variables of interest. The main result of the analysis shows that both real and financial wealth positively affect households' consumption in the long-run, with the elasticity of housing wealth being larger than that of stock market wealth. Moreover, there is also a significant short-run adjustment from income, stock prices and house prices on consumption, i.e. consumption adjusts to its long-run relationship with lags. When the model is run for the two groups of countries separately, the long-run impact of an increase (decrease) in house prices is generally higher in Central and Eastern European economies with respect to Asian ones, which make them more vulnerable to further adverse housing market developments.     

韩国住房政策的历史演变及启示

韩国的住房政策具有较强的政府主导型特征,政府不仅对住房市场进行了积极的政策调控,而且还直接参与了住房建设。尤其对低收入阶层的住房问题,韩国政府采取了政府直接投资和建设的政策。这一政策为韩国于2002年实现100%的住房普及率做出了积极的贡献。借鉴韩国住房政策的成功经验,对我国住房保障体系的建设具有重要的现实意义。     

The Gravity Model Analysis of Bangladesh's Trade: A Panel Data Approach

The article applies generalized gravity models to analyze Bangladesh's bilateral trade pattern using the panel data estimation technique. The results reveal that Bangladesh's trade is positively determined by the size of the economies, per capita gross domestic product differential and openness of the trading countries. Bangladesh's exports are positively determined by its income, partner countries' total import demand and openness, but negatively determined by partner countries' income and domestic inflation. Bangladesh's imports are positively determined by income of trading countries and degree of openness of the partner countries and negatively determined by partner countries' inflation. Transportation costs affect Bangladesh's trade negatively.     

基于财政分权的地方住房保障财政供给能力实证研究

住房保障是政府的重要责任,受到政治、经济和社会多种因素影响,以财政分权因素为例,分析发现：我国分税制改革尚未形成激励地方政府自觉增加住房保障财政供给的机制,现行财政分权模式不利于增强地方政府住房保障供给能力。今后需要结合分税制改革,明确中央和地方各级政府的住房保障责任,并将其作为财政投入的依据,结合我国住房保障供给与城镇化进程、城镇贫困和低收入人群的住房保障需求,合理规划和制定住房保障政策,增加财政投入,提高供给水平。     

Cultural similarities and housing market linkage: evidence from OECD countries

The subprime crisis provoked a growing study on international housing market linkage. Nevertheless, the extant literature fails to explore housing price co-movements in terms of culture and a country’s responses (e.g. housing market conditions and government participation). Employing the databases on cultural similarities, housing market conditions and government participation in 18 OECD countries over 1970–2016, this article suggests that culture similarities affect house price co-movements via information dissemination efficiency and investment conduct consistency. In addition, housing supply elasticity and government participation are able to mitigate house price contagion. Hence, to withstand external shocks, countries should pay attention to the role of cultural similarities in housing price interdependence. Moreover, it is necessary to ensure that housing supply is resilient and improve government participation.     

Cultural similarities and housing market linkage: evidence from OECD countries

The subprime crisis provoked a growing study on international housing market linkage. Nevertheless, the extant literature fails to explore housing price co-movements in terms of culture and a country’s responses (e.g. housing market conditions and government participation). Employing the databases on cultural similarities, housing market conditions and government participation in 18 OECD countries over 1970–2016, this article suggests that culture similarities affect house price co-movements via information dissemination efficiency and investment conduct consistency. In addition, housing supply elasticity and government participation are able to mitigate house price contagion. Hence, to withstand external shocks, countries should pay attention to the role of cultural similarities in housing price interdependence. Moreover, it is necessary to ensure that housing supply is resilient and improve government participation.     

住宅价格长期稳定上涨的理论界限

在“住宅零空关”假设下,住宅的理论租金和理论价格均由宏观经济发展水平和住宅存量共同决定。合理的住宅租金上涨率等于国民收入增长率减住宅存量增长率。合理的住宅价格增长率则等于市场贴现率减去该时点住宅理论租金与住宅理论价格之比率,超过这个界限的住宅价格上涨均被看作含有泡沫成分。     

我国房地产价格与通货膨胀关系的实证分析

近年来,我国房地产等资产的价格高涨所引起的“资产泡沫型通货膨胀”现象比较明显。通过观察我国近年来房屋销售价格指数和居民消费价格指数的走势发现,房地产高涨与通货膨胀之间具有很大的联动作用。因此,研究房地产价格与通货膨胀的关系,寻找破解房地产价格高涨、缓解通货膨胀压力的方法,具有重要的学术研究价值和现实意义。本文利用Granger因果关系检验模型,验证了我国房地产价格与通货膨胀关系之间存在Granger因果关系,并围绕高房价是怎样影响通货膨胀的逻辑思路,提出破解高房价、缓解“资产泡沫型通货膨胀”压力的解决方法。     

The Home Purchase Sentiment Index: A New Housing Indicator

We built a home purchase sentiment index (HPSI) with consumers’ responses to questions about home buying and selling conditions, income gains and job concerns, and house price and mortgage rate expectations. The HPSI can help forecast mortgage originations and house prices, sales, and starts. Forecasting horse races during 2012–14 show the HPSI handily outperformed other sentiment indices. We show differences in the HPSI by income and by age groups. We also suggest other aspects of housing where survey-based indicators may help, such as demand by millennials or seniors, home owners’ moving, renters’ intentions, and mortgage refinancing, delinquency, or default rates.     

试析银行信贷对住房价格的调控作用

银行信贷活动能从供给和需求两个方面影响住房价格。信贷投向失当、信贷投量控制乏力和信贷对象筛选依据不充分,是造成近年来房价上涨过猛的信贷原因。要有效地调控住房价格,就必须调整住房建设项目贷款政策,用差别化的信贷政策引导住房需求,严格控制信贷投量,并强化信贷审查力度。     

房价上涨、通货膨胀与货币政策的选择

在房价上涨助推通货膨胀理论分析的基础上,采取VAR和条件均值模型对房价上涨是否助长了通货膨胀以及货币政策的切入时机进行实证分析。结果显示,房价上涨通过影响总需求对通货膨胀有正向推动作用,房价上涨超过5%的6个月后存款准备金率上调,超过10%的12个月后利率上调。对此,提出积极调控房价并适时调整货币政策的建议。     

我国房产税试点的经济伦理意蕴

上海和重庆试行的房产税政策体现了公平正义、社会责任、义利关系的经济伦理意蕴。首先，房产税有利于降低房价，调节收入分配差距，实现公平正义；其次，房产税可以稳定我国各级政府的税收来源，使其更好地承担社会责任；最后，通过房产税政策，有利于购房者形成理性的住房消费观，规范开发商的投机行为，杜绝各级政府权力寻租的发生。此外，社会法治环境的完善也是包括房地产市场在内诸多市场良性发展的重要保障。