Micro-heterogeneity and aggregate productivity development in the German manufacturing sector

A decomposition of aggregate productivity growth of German manufacturing firms that pertain to 11 different industries at a roughly two-digit level observed over the period 1981–1998 is performed. Productivity is measured by a nonparametric frontier function approach. The decompositions of productivity allow for an explanation of the aggregate outcomes by the quantification of the effect of structural change and the contributions of entering and exiting firms. Our results show that these forces drive aggregate productivity to a considerable extent. Remarkably, the large productivity improvements after the German reunification are mainly driven by structural change.

国际贸易、自主研发与高技术产业生产率增长

本文采用DEA方法测算了我国省际高技术产业的生产率及其分解的技术效率和技术进步,并运用动态面板GMM方法对国际贸易、自主研发与高技术产业生产率增长的关系进行了实证检验。研究结果表明:1998-2009年间,高技术产业技术效率出现了下降趋势,但其生产率增长和技术进步显著。高技术产业快速发展的国际贸易并没有促进其生产率增长,生产率增长和技术进步主要来源于持续的自主研发,而立足于自主研发途径的技术吸收也促进了生产率增长和技术进步。因此,在研发设计新产品过程中,高技术产业应具备生产中间产品的能力,减少对中间产品进口的依赖。促进高技术产业生产率增长主要取决于研发投入,但在加大研发投入的同时,应注重通过管理和制度创新提升技术效率。     

服务业产业内贸易与中国服务贸易的国际竞争力初探

产业内贸易在某种程度上是发展中国家技术水平和经济增长的标志，其发展水平也是衡量一国外贸竞争力的标志。我国服务业产业内贸易水平低下，国际竞争力不强。切实采取措施，提高产业内贸易发展水平是提升服务业产业内贸易国际竞争力水平的重要手段。     

Decomposing productivity growth and divergence: an index number approach

We propose a cross-country productivity growth decomposition that allows us to quantify the industry-level contributors to an aggregate productivity growth differential. We deploy this cross-country decomposition to quantify—for the first time—the disaggregate contributors to the divergence in market sector productivity growth between Australia and New Zealand. The results suggest that large contributions to the divergence arise from differences in labour growth across the two countries and that cross-country structural differences are large, and generally act to reduce the divergence. Most of the industries are found to add to the divergence, with particularly large contributions coming from differences across the mining and wholesale trade industries. The views expressed in the paper are entirely my own, and do not necessarily reflect those of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. I would like to thank Les Oxley and Kevin Fox for useful comments on earlier drafts. All errors and omissions are my own.     

国际贸易、R&D溢出和生产率增长

本文采用6种计算外国R&D资本的方法和国际R&D溢出回归方法,首次就国际R&D溢出对中国工业行业的技术进步增长、技术效率增长和全要素生产率增长的影响作了实证分析。我们从这6种方法的比较中发现:当采用有缺陷的两种方法时,得到国际R&D溢出系数显著为负或者溢出系数为正,但不显著的结论;而采用其他的四种方法,能得到国际R&D溢出系数显著为正的结论。因此,从计算方法本身及其结论的比较来看,通过国际贸易渠道的R&D溢出促进了中国工业行业的技术进步、技术效率及全要素生产率增长的结论更可靠。同时发现在大部分情况下国内本行业R&D与其他行业R&D对行业技术进步、技术效率和全要素生产率的增长起阻碍作用。因此,加强与R&D投入比重较高的发达国家的国际贸易以及提高国内自身的R&D效率显得很有必要。     

Trade and productivity: Self-selection or learning-by-exporting in India

Recent literature tried to explain the Indian growth miracle in different ways, ranging from trade liberalization to industrial reforms. Using data on Indian manufacturing firms, this paper analyzes the relationship between firm's productivity and export market participation during 1991–2004. While it provides evidence of the self-selection hypothesis by showing that more productive firms become exporters, the results do not show that entry into export markets enhances productivity. The paper examines the explanation of self selection hypothesis for total factor productivity differences across 33,510 exporting and non-exporting firms. It uses propensity score matching to test the learning-by-exporting hypothesis. In line with the prediction of recent heterogeneous firm models of international trade, the main finding of the paper is: more productive firms become exporters but it is not the case that learning by exporting is a channel fuelling growth in Indian manufacturing.     

Vintage capital,market structure and productivity in an evolutionary model of industry growth

This paper examines the effects of inter-firm variation in vintage equipment replacement policies on industry productivity and structure using an evolutionary model based on Nelson-Winter. Traditional industry productivity measures assume a graduated replacement policy with low variation across firms in the average age of the capital stock. This approach allows for inter-firm policy variation. The first part reviews the neoclassical treatment of vintage capital investment; the second part outlines an evolutionary model of vintage replacement in the context of industry growth; and the third part presents results of simulation experiments focused on the relationship between vintage replacement patterns and industry productivity growth. Findings suggest that inter-firm differences in vintage capital investment policies may account for significant shifts in the rates of industry productivity growth and changes in market structure.     

Trade liberalization and capacity utilization: New evidence from the Turkish rubber industry

This study empirically tests the hypothesis that trade liberalization increases capacity utilization. It calculates capacity utilization for the Turkish rubber industry by using a production theory framework. More specifically, plant-level capacity utilization levels are calculated using a Generalized Leontief cost function system. Capacity utilization levels were low but improved when the trade regime shifted from a restrictive to a more liberalized one. The size and location of plants were two significant factors which created capacity utilization differences within the industry. However, capacity utilization levels appeared to improve primarily because of trade liberalization.Also, a scholar-in-residence, Department of Economics, Duke University. My particular thanks go to Patrick Conway, Marjorie McElroy, Edward Tower, participants of the International Economics Workshops at Duke University, and the anonymous referee for helpful suggestions. Any errors are mine.     

国际R&D溢出与生产率增长——基于APEC视角的动态面板数据分析

本文从服务贸易进口、FDI流入和生产率积聚效应等方面扩展了CH模型,并以APEC成员作为研究对象,运用动态面板数据模型和脉冲响应函教研究了全要素生产率、技术效率和技术进步的动态变化规律,得出了全要素生产率、技术效率和技术进步存在显著的积聚效应;本国R&D资本存量有助于提升技术效率,但是能否促进技术进步刖依赖于R&D投入强度;和通过服务贸易渠道获得的国际R&D溢出对全要素生产率和技术进步均有显著的促进作用等三个一般性结论.     

Trade liberalization and technical efficiency in the Indonesian chemicals industry

This article examines the impact of trade reform on technical efficiency on the Indonesian chemicals industry using firm-level panel data. The effects of trade reform on technical efficiency are analysed using a stochastic frontier approach. Two variables represent trade reform in this model: effective rate of protection (ERP) and import ratio (IMP). The findings of the present study suggest that both trade reform variables have significant effects on technical efficiency. The coefficient of ERP has a positive sign and is statistically significant, which means that an increase in ERP increases the inefficiency (or decreases the technical efficiency) of firms in the chemicals industry. The coefficient of IMP is negative and statistically significant, which represents the negative impact of IMP on technical inefficiency (or positive on technical efficiency). Thus, trade reform, a reduction in ERP or an increase in IMP, has an unambiguously positive effect on technical efficiency in the Indonesian chemicals industry.     

The impact of incentive regulation on productivity in the US telecommunications industry: A stochastic frontier approach

This paper investigates whether the substitution of price cap regulation (PCR) and other forms of incentive regulation for traditional rate of return regulation (RRR) has had a measurable effect on productivity growth in the US telecommunications industry. A stochastic frontier approach is employed to compute the efficiency change, technological progress, and productivity growth for 25 LECs over the 1988-1998 time periods. By examining the relationship between the change in productivity growth and regulatory regime variables and other control variables, we find that PCR has a significant and positive effect, both in contemporaneous and lagged specifications.     

The influence of Flexible Manufacturing Technology adoption on productivity of Malaysian manufacturing industry

This paper investigates the influence of the adoption of Flexible Manufacturing Technology (FMT) on the Total factor Productivity Growth (TFPG) of Malaysia Manufacturing Industry. The Principal Component Analysis has been adopted to extract the most appropriate underlying dimensions of FMT to use in place of the eight FMT variables owing to the potential multicollinearity. The study has been conducted within FMT intensively adopted 16 three-digit industries that encompass 50 five-digit industries covering the years 2000–2005. The results obtained from the two situations, one, including the industry fixed effects dummy variables and the other without these, are contrasted. It is established that the model that included the industry fixed effect dummy variables has a greater explanatory power. The two principal components that account for the greater variation in FMT show positive and moderately significant relationship with TFPG. The study provides sufficient evidence to conclude that FMT has a direct and moderately significant relationship with TFPG.     

人工智能对制造企业是否存在“生产率悖论”

在新一轮科技变革和产业革命背景下,人工智能已深度融入国民经济各产业,成为产业发展的重要驱动力。人工智能能否促进制造企业生产率提升,已成为新时代中国制造业高质量发展的关键。利用2015—2017年中国A股制造业上市公司相关数据,实证检验人工智能对制造企业生产率的影响,构建基于结构方程的多重中介效应模型,分析制造企业应用人工智能技术影响生产率的内在机制及路径。研究发现,人工智能提升了制造企业生产率;市场份额对人工智能与制造企业生产率的关系有显著负向调节作用;人工智能通过劳动力数量、物质资本使用效率和技术创新产出3种中介变量显著促进企业生产率提升,并通过人力资本使用效率和技术创新投入抑制企业生产率提升。     

Informality,innovation, and aggregate productivity growth

This paper investigates how the costs of innovation in the formal sector temper or magnify the impacts of traditional policy levers such as taxation on sectoral choice. I embed a decision whether to operate formally or informally into a richer, general equilibrium model. Formal firms are subject to taxation, but they can improve their productivity through process innovation. Informal firms can potentially avoid taxation, and their productivity is determined by productivity growth in the formal sector. I find that changing tax rates from 50% to 60% decreases formal‐sector participation by 20.9%; however, this percentage falls by 10% when the cost of innovation is lower in the formal sector. The model also illustrates how changes in tax policy affect total factor productivity growth by limiting both the number of formal‐sector firms and the intensity of innovation. These results indicate a potential mechanism to induce firms to operate formally or mitigate harmful impacts of necessary tax changes.     

Firm productivity and agglomeration economies: evidence from Egyptian data

This paper attempts to shed the light on the nexus between firms’ productivity and economies of agglomeration in Egypt. Using a large dataset of firms in 342 firms’ four-digit activities in 27 regions (62,108 firms), we introduce three measures of agglomeration which are urbanization or firm diversification measured by the number of firms by governorate, localization and specialization measured by the average productivity by governorate and sector (generating externalities and knowledge spillovers) and finally competition measured by the number of firm operating in the same governorate and the same sector. We find strong evidence for the existence of agglomeration in Egypt after controlling for firm age, location, economic activity and legal status. In the Egyptian context, productivity spillovers gained from agglomeration measures outweighed the negative effects of competition implied by congestion. The latter is chiefly due to the lack of good infrastructure. When regressions are run by firm size, location and activity, our main findings show first that micro and small firms are more likely to benefit from localization and diversification compared to medium and large firms. Service firms benefit more from high level of diversification while manufacturing firms gain more benefits from knowledge spillovers and specialization in Egypt.     

Link between innovation and productivity in Canadian manufacturing industries

Empirical studies commonly use research and development (R&D) to measure innovation and often find, especially in Canada, no strong link between productivity and innovation. In this article, we model innovation as an unobservable latent variable that underlies four indicators: R&D, patents, technology adoption, and skills. We find that these indicators are reasonably good measures of innovation for aggregate manufacturing. However, except for skills, the reliability of the indicators for innovation differs among individual industries. Our innovation indexes, based on the latent variable model, show that most manufacturing industries became more innovative over the 1980–1997 period. The pace of innovation in the electrical and electronic products industry accelerated during the 1990s. In addition, we show that the new measure of innovation has a positive and statistically significant impact on productivity. It takes from 1 to 3 years, depending on the industry, for innovation to generate an impact on productivity.     

基于贸易收支数据的美国贸易逆差与美元汇率相互关系研究

通过选择美国与中国、日本、加拿大、英国和欧元区11国等美国主要贸易伙伴的双边贸易数据作为样本,研究美国的双边贸易逆差与美元汇率之间的关系.实证分析表明,美国对主要贸易伙伴国的双边贸易收支与美元汇率没有实质性联系.美国逼迫其它货币升值没有也不能缓解美国的贸易逆差问题,同样,美国逼迫人民币升值也不能缓解美中双边贸易失衡问题.     

贸易统计差异与中美贸易平衡问题

本文研究发现(1)中美进出口计价方式不同和运输时滞导致双边贸易统计数据存在差异是自然的。(2)参照剔除香港转口毛利后中美贸易新估计值,1995—2003年美国对华出口低估年均在24%以上,从华进口高估年均在35%以上,而中国对美出口低估年均在20%以上,从美进口相对没变。(3)考虑服务贸易后,美中商品与服务贸易逆差估计值与中国对美贸易顺差新估计值已相当接近。上述结果得到IMF数据的证实。(4)外商在华直接投资增加会造成中国对美出口增加、对美贸易顺差增加。依据中美两国月度数据计量的结论是相一致的。这一结果证实中美贸易平衡问题已超越中美两国贸易范围而成为外商在华直接投资所引致的贸易逆差转移问题。剔除外资企业进出口贡献及贸易统计差异后,中国对美贸易估计值已非常趋近于美国对华贸易估计值。     

试论一般生产力到服务生产力的演进与测量

从一般生产力到服务生产力概念的演进是适应现实需要的产物，有其客观必然性；对生产力及服务生产力概念有一个较为清晰的界定，是服务生产力研究的前提；服务生产力的概念及其测量应综合考虑效率、效益、企业投入的资源以及顾客投入的资源等要素，其虽然从内涵等方面有别于传统生产力的概念，但也并未脱离基本的投入产出模式。     

Trade policy and productivity

Previous studies on the determinants of productivity emphasized the role of trade and institutions but omitted trade policy due to endogeneity concerns. This paper considers the role of one important element of trade policy: free trade agreements (FTAs). Based on recent work on the determinants of FTAs, we suggest an instrument which is based on the propensity to enter an FTA due to (exogenous) geographical characteristics. We find that differences in institutional quality and trade, due to variations in geography and trade policy, have a sizeable effect on productivity and can explain the huge variation in per capita income across countries.