THE IMPACT OF AGRICULTURAL EXTENSION: THE TRAINING AND VISIT SYSTEM IN INDIA

This article reviews the rationale for public sector involvementin the dissemination of technological information to farmers,concluding that free markets do not fully satisfy farmers' informationneeds, and that government support is justified. Agriculturalextension is a principal way that governments can disseminateinformation, and the World Bank is financing many extensionprojects throughout the developing world. One specific approachto extension adopted in many Bank extension projects is theTraining and Visit (T&V) system. Data from a Bank-sponsoredsurvey in northwest India and from monitoring and evaluationreports issued by several Indian states are used in this articleto evaluate T&V extension operations and their impact. Extensionagents' interaction with farmers is found to be more intensiveand more significant as a source of information in areas coveredby T&V extension than in areas with a different extensionsystem. The yield levels of farmers whose main source of informationwas the T&V extension agent are also shown to be higher.In one case study, the incremental investment in T&V extensionis shown to be likely to generate at least a 15 to 20 percentrate of return.      

Rural Poverty: Old Challenges in New Contexts

Poverty is still a predominantly rural phenomenon. However,the context of rural poverty has been changing across the world,with high growth in some economies and stagnation in others.Furthermore, increased openness in many economies has affectedthe specific role of agricultural growth for rural poverty reduction.This paper revisits an ‘old’ question: how doesgrowth and poverty reduction come about if most of the poorlive in rural areas and are dependent on agriculture? What isthe role of agricultural and rural development in this respect?Focusing on Sub-Saharan Africa, and using economic theory andthe available evidence, the author comes to the conclusion thatchanging contexts has meant that agricultural growth is onlycrucial as an engine for growth in particular settings, morespecifically in landlocked, resource-poor countries, which areoften also characterized by relatively low potential for agriculture.However, extensive market failures in key factor markets andlikely spatial effects give a remaining crucial role for ruraldevelopment policies, including focusing on agriculture, toassist the inclusion of the rural poor in growth and development.How to overcome these market failures remains a key issue forfurther research. JEL codes: O41, Q10, O55     

Impact of the Bank's rural development lending

Following the global food crisis of the early 1970s, the World Bank has placed a priority on funding agriculture and rural development projects. These projects have been funded with a view to raising the productivity of low-income groups. Projects aimed at increasing the incomes of rural poor must clearly identify the target group and be designed so that they will benefit directly. Some of these Bank-funded projects have been in the following areas: 1) irrigation; 2) fertilizer; 3) general rural development, e.g., road construction and rural electrification; 4) agricultural extension; 5) credit extension in rural areas; and 6) comprehensive projects. So far, the Bank programs seem to have exerted an influence on government development policies. Experience shows, however, that expansion of the income-employment sector is limited in scope. It is evident also that poverty-oriented programs must be longer-term than more conventional programs. Real success in this field will be measured in terms of community development and self-sufficiency.     

What Should the World Bank Think about the Washington Consensus?

The phrase "Washington Consensus" has become a familiar termin development policy circles in recent years, but it is nowused in several different senses, causing a great deal of confusion.In this article the author distinguishes between his originalmeaning as a summary of the lowest common denominator of policyadvice addressed by the Washington-based institutions (includingthe World Bank) and subsequent use of the term to signify neoliberalor market-fundamentalist policies. He argues that the latterpolicies could not be expected to provide an effective frameworkfor combating poverty but that the original advice is stillbroadly valid. The article discusses alternative ways of addressingthe confusion. It argues that any policy manifesto designedto eliminate poverty needs to go beyond the original versionbut concludes by cautioning that no consensus on a wider agendacurrently exists.      

Who is Not Poor? Dreaming of a World Truly Free of Poverty

When the World Bank dreams of "a world free of poverty," whatshould it be dreaming? In measuring global income or consumptionexpenditure poverty, the World Bank has widely adopted the $1a day standard as a lower bound. Because this standard is basedon poverty lines in the poorest countries, anyone with incomeor expenditures below this line will truly be poor. But thereis no consensus standard for the upper bound of the global povertyline: above what level of income or expenditures is someonetruly not poor? This article proposes that the World Bank computeits lower and upper bounds in a methodologically equivalentway, using the poverty lines of the poorest countries for thelower bound and the poverty lines of the richest countries forthe upper bound. The resulting upper bound global poverty linewould be 10 times higher than the current lower bound and atleast 5 times higher than the currently used alternative lowerbound of $2 a day. And in tracking progress toward a world freeof poverty, the World Bank should compute measures of globalpoverty using a variety of weights on the depth and intensityof poverty for a range of poverty lines between the global lowerand upper bounds. For instance, rather than trying to artificiallyforce the global population of 6.2 billion (a billion is 1,000million) into just two categories "poor" and "not poor," withthe new range of poverty lines the estimates would be that 1.3billion people are "destitute" (below $1 a day), another 1.6billion are in "extreme poverty" (above $1 a day but below $2dollar a day), and another 2.5 billion are in "global poverty"(above extreme poverty but below the upper bound poverty line).      

The World Bank and poverty

During the 1970s it was World Bank policy to use its funds to raise the productivity and living standards of the poor. It has increased its lending for sector and subsectors considered to offer the most direct benefits to the poor such as rural development, population, health, and nutrition. Projects with particular emphasis on poverty have benefitted large numbers of poor people and have had good economic rates of return. Lending for rural projects increased in the 1970s from US$2.6 billion in 1969-73 to over US$13 billion in 1978-81; rural development projects audited in 1979 benfitted 660 small farmers for every US$1 million loaned compared with 47 farmers/US$1 million in other agricultural projects. Some problems are: 1) low-risk technical packages appropriate for poor farmers in semi-arid rainfed areas are not readily available; 2) the Bank's rural development strategy seeks mainly to raise the production of small farms, but other aspects need to be emphasized; 3) domestic pricing and postharvest policies often undermine the success of projects aimed at the rural poor; and 4) success in rural development often rests on sociological and cultural factors, difficult areas that deserve more attention. For urban areas the Bank has strongly endorsed providing "sites and sources" instead of structures; since 1972, 52 Bank projects centered on urban shelter involving US$1.6 billion have been undertaken. Cost recovery is established at 66-95%. About 5% of Bank lending is for education and despite the importance of population, health, and nutrition, these areas absorb less than 1% of the Bank's total lending program. Only US$400 million in population loans were made to 13 countries in the 1970s and only recently have separate health projects been started. Emphasis for the 1980s must be on rural development, urban shelter, primary education, health, education, and population.     

REACHING THE RURAL POOR THROUGH PUBLIC EMPLOYMENT: Arguments, Evidence, and Lessons from South Asia

With the limited set of policy instruments typically avaiablein the rural sectors of developing countries, imperfect coverageof the poor and leakage ot the nonpoor must be expected fromeven the most well-intentioned poverty alleviation scheme. Oneway to reach the poor more effectively is to build incentivesfor self-selection into the scheme. Labor-intensive rural publicworks projects have the potential to reach and protect the poor,as well as to create and maintain rural infrastructure. Thelimited evidence for South Asia suggests that few nonpoor personswant to participate, and that both direct and indirect transferever, be rapidly dissipated by a badly concevided and executedproject; the details of how project are selected, designed,and financed are crucial to success in both the short and thelong run.      

WHAT MAKES RURAL FINANCE INSTITUTIONS SUCCESSFUL?

Providing affordable credit to the rural population has longbeen a prime component of development strategy. Governmentsand donors have sponsored and supported supply-led rural financeinstitutions both to improve growth and equity and to neutralizeor mitigate urban-biased macroeconomic policies. But becauseof high risks, heavy transaction costs, and mounting loan losses,many of the programs have drained state resources to littlepurpose, reaching only a small part of the rural populationand making little progress toward self-sustainability. There are, however, a few success stories. This article reviewsthe policies, modes of operation, incentives, and financialperformance of four publicly sponsored programs in Asia thatare widely perceived to be successful, to find out what economic,social, and institutional factors contributed to their success.      

The Evolution of the World Bank's Land Policy: Principles, Experience, and Future Challenges

This article examines the evolution of policy recommendationsconcerning rural land issues since the formulation of the WorldBank's "Land Reform Policy Paper" in 1975. That paper set outthree guiding principles: the desirability of owner-operatedfamily farms; the need for markets to permit land to be transferredto more productive users; and the importance of an egalitarianasset distribution. In the 25 years since that paper was published,these guiding principles have remained the same, but it is nowrecognized that communal tenure systems can be more cost-effectivethan formal title, that titling programs should be judged ontheir equity as well as their efficiency, that the potentialof land rental markets has often been severely underestimated,that land-sale markets enhance efficiency only if they are integratedinto a broader effort at developing rural factor markets, andthat land reform is more likely to result in a reduction ofpoverty if it harnesses (rather than undermines) the operationof land markets and is implemented in a decentralized fashion.Achieving land policies that incorporate these elements requiresa coherent legal and institutional framework together with greaterreliance on pilot programs to examine the applicability of interventionsunder local conditions.      

What Works in Fighting Diarrheal Diseases in Developing Countries? A Critical Review

The Millennium Development Goals call for reducing by half theproportion of people without sustainable access to safe drinkingwater. This goal was adopted in large part because clean waterwas seen as critical to fighting diarrheal disease, which kills2 million children annually. There is compelling evidence thatprovision of piped water and sanitation can substantially reducechild mortality. However, in dispersed rural settlements, providingcomplete piped water and sanitation infrastructure to householdsis expensive. Many poor countries have therefore focused insteadon providing community-level water infrastructure, such as wells.Various traditional child health interventions have been shownto be effective in fighting diarrhea. Among environmental interventions,handwashing and point-of-use water treatment both reduce diarrhea,although more needs to be learned about ways to encourage householdsto take up these behavior changes. In contrast, there is littleevidence that providing community-level rural water infrastructuresubstantially reduces diarrheal disease or that this infrastructurecan be effectively maintained. Investments in communal waterinfrastructure short of piped water may serve other needs, andmay reduce diarrhea in particular circumstances, but the casefor prioritizing communal infrastructure provision needs tobe made rather than assumed. JEL codes: Q56, Q52, O22     

AIDS and African Development

Because AIDS affects primarily the most productive age groupand is fatal and widespread, it will have a larger impact onAfrican development than other more common diseases. Infectionrates are higher in urban than in rural areas, and studies suggestthat they are highest among urban high-income, skilled men andtheir partners. Macroeconomic models show that the greater theinfection rate among educated workers and the greater the propensityto finance medical care out of savings, the more detrimentalis the impact of AIDS on the growth of per capita income. Regardlessof the macroeconomic effect, most households and businessesdirectly affected by AIDS will be economically worse off, atleast in the short run. It is not clear, however, what effectAIDS will have on poverty in Sub-Saharan Africa or on incomeinequality. Governments need to assess the potential economicimpact of AIDS, implement cost-effective programs to mitigatethe impact, and target prevention programs to the economic sectorsmost sensitive to HIV infection.      

Developing Countries and a New Round of WTO Negotiations

This article summarizes some of the results and findings emergingfrom an ongoing World Bank research and capacity-building projectthat focuses on the World Trade Organization (WTO) negotiatingagenda from a developing country perspective. Recent researchsuggests that the potential gains from further multilateralliberalization of trade remain very large. The payoffs associatedwith attempts to introduce substantive disciplines in the WTOon domestic regulatory regimes are much less certain. This suggeststhat the focus of current and future negotiations should beprimarily on the bread and butter of the multilateral tradingsystem—the progressive liberalization of barriers to tradein goods and services on a nondiscriminatory basis. In addition,priority should be given to ensuring that rules are consistentwith the development needs of poorer countries and to helpingdeveloping countries implement WTO obligations.      

Judicial Reform and Economic Development: A Survey of the Issues

Acknowledging the importance of sound judicial systems to goodgovernance and economic growth, the World Bank and several otherdonor organizations have funded judicial reform projects inmore than two dozen developing countries and transition economiesduring the past few years. Yet little is known about the actualeffect of judicial reform on economic performance or even aboutwhat elements constitute a sound reform project. This articlesurveys a wide range of current studies on judicial reform andfinds some surprising results.      

REFORM OF TRADE POLICY: Recent Evidence from Theory and Practice

In the 1980s many developing countries began to recognize thatrestrictive trade policies can constrain growth. To facilitatetrade and integration into the world economy, many countrieshave embarked on reform programs. This survey synthesizes theconclusions of the literature on trade policy reform with thoseof a recent study by the World Bank analyzing reforms in developingcountries, particularly those supported by adjustment lendingprograms. Its objective is to shed light on some of the questionsabout these programs to guide policymakers in the future. Thearticle reviews conditions in these countries before trade policyreforms were implemented and examines how much reform actuallytook place. It also examines the effects of the reforms on economicperformance and reviews the factors that constrained the reformprocess. The survey considers the most important issues in designingand implementing trade policy reforms and concludes that althoughpast reforms have had a positive impact, future programs shouldemphasize three elements: reducing the level of protection,maintaining macroeconomic stability, and accounting for theconflicts and complementarities with other policies.      

The Role of Long-Term Finance: Theory and Evidence

Improving the supply of long-term credit to industrial firmsis considered a priority for growth in developing countries.A World Bank multicountry study looks at whether a long-termcredit shortage exists and, if so, whether it has had an impacton investment, productivity, and growth. The study finds thateven after controlling for the characteristics of individualfirms,businesses in developing countries use significantly less long-termdebt than their counterparts in industrial countries. Researchersare able to explain the difference in debt composition betweenindustrial and developing countries by firm characteristics;by macroeconomic factors; and, most importantly, by financialdevelopment, government subsidies, and legal and institutionalfactors. The analysis concludes that long-term finance tends to be associatedwith higher productivity. An active stock market and an abilityto enter into long-term contracts also allow firms to grow atfaster rates than they could attain by relying on internal sourcesof funads and short-term credit alone. Importantly, althoughgovernment-subsidized credit markets have increased the long-termindebtedness of firms, there is no evidence that these subsidiesare associated with the ability of firms to grow faster. Indeed,in some cases subsidies are associated with lower productivity.      

新制度经济学视角：农业银行三农金融事业部制改革成效分析

农村金融供给不足的问题由来已久,农村信用社由于缺少有力竞争开始出现垄断迹象。始于2008年的农业银行三农金融事业部制改革逐渐展开并取得一定成效。本文拟从新制度经济学的视角,对山东省济南市农业银行三农金融事业部改革这一事件的过程和效果进行分析,以期寻找到大型银行支持三农发展的有效途径。     

WHAT DO WE KNOW ABOUT THE POLITICAL ECONOMY OF ECONOMIC POLICY REFORM?

The recent wave of democratization in developing countries andin formerly communist ones has sparked renewed interest in therelation between politics and economic adjustment. Adjustmentprograms, however well designed in a technical economic sense,are often politically difficult to launch and, once launched,to keep afloat. Success in implementing an adjustment programmay depend on a government's skill in generating political supportand holding off the opposition. This article explores the politicsof economic reform, drawing on country studies by politicalscientists and country specialists, the growing theoreticalliterature by economists, and the findings of a World Bank researchproject on the political economy of adjustment in new democracies.The article examines three broad clusters of variables: institutionalcharacteristics of the political system, aspects of the internaland external economy, and the design of the reform program.It also considers the relevance of political analysis for policymakersand for international financial institutions.      

What Have We Learned from a Decade of Manufacturing Enterprise Surveys in Africa?

In the early 1990s the World Bank launched the Regional Programon Enterprise Development (RPED) in several African countries,a key component of which was to collect data on manufacturingfirms. The data sets built by these and subsequent enterprisesurveys in Africa generated considerable research. This articlesurveys the research on the African business environment, focusingon risk, access to credit, labor, and infrastructure, and onhow firms organize themselves and do business. It reviews theresearch on enterprise performance, including enterprise growth,investment, and exports. The article concludes with a discussionof policy lessons.      

农村金融结构优化是否促进了农村经济增长——基于湖南省的实证研究

从金融机构结构、金融市场结构和金融空间结构看,湖南省农村信用社仍然是农村金融的主体,但是农村合作银行、小额贷款公司、农村保险公司等多种新型农村金融机构迅速发展,农村金融结构呈现多元化趋势,农业商业银行、村镇银行成为除农村信用社、政策性银行、中国农业银行涉农贷款三大主力外的有益补充,金融要素空间上出现“中部塌陷”特征。改进生产函数,构建多元回归模型实证分析显示,湖南省农村金融规模没有起到应有的促进农村经济增长的作用,金融机构组成结构的多元化、农村信贷市场结构的多元化有利于湖南农村经济增长,而金融要素从集聚向发散的空间结构转变不利于农村经济增长。     

HOW DO MARKET FAILURES JUSTIFY INTERVENTIONS IN RURAL CREDIT MARKETS?

Understanding of the economic causes and consequences of marketfailure in credit markets has progressed a great deal in recentyears. This article draws on these developments to appraisethe case for government intervention in rural financial marketsin developing countries and to discover whether the theoreticalfindings can be used to identify directives for policy. Before debating the when and how of intervention, the articledefines market failure, emphasizing the need to consider thefull array of constraints that combine to make a market workimperfectly. The various reasons for market failure are discussedand set in the context in which credit markets function in developingcountries. The article then looks at recurrent problems thatmay be cited as failures of the market justifying intervention.Among these problems are enforcement; imperfect information,especially adverse selection and moral hazard; the risk of bankruns; and the need for safeguards against the monopoly powerof some lenders. The review concludes with a discussion of interventions,focusing on the learning process that must take place for financialmarkets to operate effectively.