国有商业银行与股份制商业银行脆弱性比较研究

近年来我国金融体系的稳定性问题日益突出。运用临界值法对我国国有商业银行和10家主要股份制商业银行的脆弱性程度进行的实证比较研究结果表明，国有商业银行体系的综合脆弱性指数远远大于股份制商业银行体系，尤其体现在不良贷款率这个指标上。因此．应积极构建我国银行体系安全网，确保银行系统的安全稳健运行。     

The optimal initial allocation of pollution permits: a relative performance approach

The initial allocation of pollution permits is an important aspect of emissions trading schemes. We generalize the analysis of Böhringer and Lange (2005, Eur Econ Rev 49(8): 2041–2055) to initial allocation mechanisms that are based on inter-firm relative performance comparisons (including grandfathering and auctions, as well as novel mechanisms). We show that using firms’ historical output for allocating permits is never optimal in a dynamic permit market setting, while using firms’ historical emissions is optimal only in closed trading systems and only for a narrow class of allocation mechanisms. Instead, it is possible to achieve social optimality by allocating permits based only on an external factor, which is independent of output and emissions. We then outline sufficient conditions for a socially optimal relative performance mechanism.     

Information-based contagion and the implications for financial fragility

This paper explores a global game model of information-based financial contagion. By revealing information on a common fundamental factor and thereby affecting the behavior of creditors, the failure of a single firm can trigger the failure of another firm. The model provides a unique equilibrium framework to assess the consequences of contagion and yields some hitherto unnoticed insights. While contagion increases the correlation among the financial failures of different firms, its impact on the incidence of failure is ambiguous. I consider an analytically tractable version of the model in which the effect on the ex ante failure probabilities is exactly zero. Moreover, the impact of contagion increases with the relevance of a common underlying fundamental, but is limited to firms near the brink of success or failure.     

Relative consumption, relative wealth and growth

In a growth model where individuals care about their social status measured both by consumption and wealth comparisons, we show that status comparison in wealth heightens economic growth, while status comparison in consumption may affect negatively economic growth.     

Stability,sequential rationality,and subgame consistency

In this paper we analyze dynamic strategic behavior by means of the idea of "stability." We develop a solution concept of "sequentially stable equilibrium (SSE)" that satisfies subgame consistency. All SSEs are characterized by the largest stable set that yields exactly all the backward induction outcomes. We also provide a refinement of the SSE. We compare the SSE and its refinement with some existing solution concepts in the literature We are grateful to the editor and two anonymous referees for very useful comments and suggestions that led to this revision. We thank Chih Chang, Yi-Chun Chen, Chenying Huang, Huiwen Koo, Man-Chung Ng, Shyh-fang Ueng, and Chun-Hsien Yeh for helpful comments and discussions. We also thank participants in seminars at Academia Sinica, National Dong Hwa University, and the Third Pan-Pacific Game Theory Conference. Financial support from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada (SSHRC), the National Science Council of Taiwan, and the Economic and Social Research Council of the UK is gratefully acknowledged. The usual disclaimer applies.     

Investing against the wind: contagion during the recent financial crisis

This article examines the effect of Warren Buffett’s investment in Goldman Sachs on 24 September 2008, during the subprime mortgage crisis. Although this event is arguably perceived to be the biggest expression of confidence in the financial market during the crisis, by conducting event studies, we do not find the major counterparties of Goldman Sachs displayed positive abnormal returns. Moreover, the abnormal return is not significantly related to the counterparty connection. We have similar findings on these financial institutions’ default probabilities using credit default swap.     

我国商业银行效率结构研究

本文采用随机前沿法(SFA)测算了1990—2003年我国商业银行的X-利润效率、规模效率、范围效率及其动态变化,然后分析了宏观因素、产权制度与市场结构对效率水平的影响程度和影响机制。实证检验发现,GDP增长率、固定资产投资增长率和货币供应量(M2)的增长率对X-利润效率水平产生正影响;CPI和以全部国有及规模以上非国有工业企业的销售利润率衡量的企业整体效益状况对X-利润效率水平产生了负影响;所有宏观变量中,固定资产投资增长率的影响最大。在面临相同的宏观经济环境下,国有商业银行和股份制商业银行的X-利润效率水平存在结构性差别,且依次递增;两类商业银行均存在一定程度的规模效率,国有商业银行在大多数年份里的规模效率好于股份制银行,从时间趋势来说,两类商业银行由于规模的扩大,规模经济效应正在逐步减弱且差距也在逐步缩小;国有银行几乎不存在范围效率,股份制银行存在一定程度的范围效率,但从时间趋势来看,范围效率逐步减弱。产权制度是造成这种差异的关键原因,市场竞争程度对商业银行效率也产生了非常重要的影响;且两者对商业银行效率的影响是一种互补关系而不是替代关系。最后提出了相应的对策和建议。     

多层次道德风险与小银行运营模式

本文运用信息经济学中的激励系统理论（incentive system theory）分析了小银行运营模式,揭示了该模式各组成要素之间的互补性及其如何被用以解决银行运营中的多层次道德风险问题,并与大银行（中小企业部）的运营模式进行了比较。主要结论及政策含义是：不同规模银行的运营模式之间不具有可复制性,大银行设立中小企业部（或子银行）并不能从根本上解决中小企业融资难的问题;小银行与存款人、贷款客户之间形成了相互链接、相互制衡的利益关系,其运营风险并没有想象中的大,放开民营资本进入银行业是风险可控的;应承认小银行在股权结构上适度集中及股东主要由当地（法）人组成的合理性,不宜一刀切地要求引入外地战略投资者。     

中国渐进改革成本与国有银行财务重组

中国渐进改革的平稳推进得益于新增改革成本能很快地被财政支付或通过国有银行转移,对渐进改革走势影响更大的是被转移至银行的存量成本。实证数据显示,国有银行财务重组中的不良资产处置过程客观上形成了对这一成本的发现机制,但现行的财务重组方案并没有对所有成本进行最终支付,而大量采取了“后摊”与“隐性负债”的处置方式,这是中国渐进式改革的特征体现,其结果是改革成本向国家财政与中央银行的再次转移。中央银行作为“政府的银行”承担改革成本有其现实的必要性和理论的可行性,但由此造成的估值损失应该及时进行确认和记录的会计操作,中央财政预算要反映央行因参与财务重组而导致的实际资本下降。     

论商业银行中小企业贷款承诺业务的完善

我国中小企业目前面临融资难的问题，贷款承诺业务有利于这一问题的解决。根据我国现实情况，笔者认为可以通过建立适合我国国情的融资担保、评级为一体的融资担保机构，对中小企业的分类采取不同的贷款承诺形式，降低经营成本，有效地解决中小企业贷款承诺业务中的障碍，就可以极大缓解中小企业目前面临融资难的问题。     

浅议我国商业银行中间业务的法律风险与防范对策

商业银行中间业务的开展对促进商业银行提高经营效益、降低银行风险，以及实现可持续发展等方面发挥了重要作用。然而现阶段我国商业银行发展中间业务时面临诸多法律风险，如立法上的缺陷、法律的滞后性等。因而，应积极制定有关法律、法规，适度监管，为商业银行中间业务的开展营造良好的法律环境。     

我国商业银行中间业务及服务收费的相关问题

大力发展中间业务,通过服务收费实现非利息收入持续增长,是商业银行收益结构由利差收入为主向非利息收入为主转变的必由之路.在我国商业银行中间业务快速发展的情况下.银行服务收费占收入比例过低的局面仍然没有得到有效改观.因此.规范引导商业银行服务收费行为.提高商业银行服务定价水平,将成为我国商业银行实现经营转型,全面提升市场竞争力的关键所在.     

Cass transversality condition and sequential asset bubbles

Summary. The objective of this paper is to illustrate the connection existing between the asymptotic value of a certain random series and the absence of asset pricing valuation bubbles in stochastic economies with sequential markets. This series, in turn, is closely related to the one proposed by Cass to characterize efficient accumulation paths in Solow models.Received: 3 June 2003, Revised: 3 March 2004, JEL Classification Numbers: C61, C62, D51, G12.A first draft of this paper was presented at the V Conference of the Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory, Ischia, Italy, 2001. I am grateful to S. Spear and an anonymous referee for their valuable comments. This research was partially supported by MIUR (Ministero dellIstruzione, Universitá e Ricerca).     

寡头垄断、风险竞争与中小银行的发展困境:2001-2006

金融市场开放和改革使我国中小银行得到了较快发展,但也逐步陷入了风险扩张而绩效下滑的困境中.运用基于Stackelberg模型构建的寡头垄断市场银行风险竞争模型来对中小银行发展困境进行的实证研究发现,在资金价格(存贷款利率)受到严格管制的垄断市场中,银行间的竞争将会导致银行体系风险水平与资产规模的不断扩张,而不是经营绩效的持续提升.要使中小银行摆脱发展困境并得到健康发展,必须在培育银行业专业化分工的同时逐渐打破银行体系的垄断格局,推进利率市场化,放开对资金价格的严格限制,使中小银行的非价格竞争劣势转变为价格竞争优势;同时加强对中小银行的监管,为其营造一个公平竞争的市场环境.     

新疆商业银行票据融资业务发展探讨

近年来,新疆商业银行的票据融资业务增长迅速,这其中既有新疆中小企业资本需求增加的因素,也有新疆商业银行拓宽中间业务的影响。在新疆票据融资业务快速增长的过程中存在着许多问题,如票据市场产品单一、融资性票据量大等,因此应增加票据品种,完善票据法规制度,促进新疆商业银行票据融资业务的发展。     

Rationalizability and equilibrium in N-person sequential bargaining

Summary. This paper deals with N-person sequential bargaining games with complete information. For N-person sequential bargaining games, uniqueness of the SPE has been obtained by allowing the players to exit with partial agreements. Adopting a non-equilibrium approach, we show that N-person sequential bargaining games with exit are solvable by a refinement of rationalizability for multi-stage games (trembling-hand rationalizability) whatever the impatience of the players. That is, once we adopt the non-equilibrium approach, the exit opportunity still fulfils its original aim: we achieve a unique solution by introducing the exit opportunity. Moreover, this unique solution is the unique SPE. Received: October 30, 1996; revised version: July 7, 1998     

四大商业银行差异化战略实施机制

差异化战略是四大商业银行的一项基本竞争战略,但远未达到预期的目标。本研究在四大商业银行差异化战略实施的背景、必要性和平台分析的前提下,概括了四大商业银行差异化的路径,归纳了四大商业银行差异化战略的基本策略,包括数据库建设、市场细分、产品差异化、服务差异化、分销渠道差异化、银行形象差异化、客户关系管理和差异化定价,研究认为四大商业银行差异化战略仅处于起步阶段,需要充分借鉴西方发达国家商业银行差异化战略实施的经验和技能,强调四大商业银行差异化战略实施的深化策略是优先在关键差异化策略上实现突破,进而在基础差异化策略上全面展开,最终提高银行的差异化绩效。同时,本研究指出了四大商业银行差异化战略的理论引导方向,即动态分析差异化的影响因素、引入西方银行的差异化技术和完善绩效考核理论体系。     

阿奇霉素序贯疗法治疗小儿肺炎支原体肺炎临床疗效观察

目的探讨阿奇霉素序贯疗法治疗MPP的临床价值及优越性。方法将86例MPP患儿分为观察组（45例）和对照组（41例）,对照组给予红霉素静脉滴注治疗,观察组给予阿奇霉素序贯疗法治疗,观察两组患儿临床症状及体征改善情况,并进行疗效评定。结果观察组治疗总有效率为97.78%,明显高于对照组的82.93%（P＜0.05）;观察组临床症状和体征消失时间均低于对照组（P＜0.05）;观察组不良反应发生率为13.33%,明显低于对照组的34.15%（P＜0.05）。结论阿奇霉素序贯疗法治疗MPP具有疗效好、见效快、不良反应少等优点,是目前治疗小儿MPP的一种首选方案。     

Human capital aggregation and relative wages across countries

Most of the growth accounting literature relies on an aggregate production function to determine the contribution of factors of production relative to that of total factor productivity (TFP) in explaining differences in incomes across countries. I show that the importance of TFP in accounting for cross-country income differences depends crucially on how skilled and unskilled labor are aggregated. Further, cross-country evidence on the relationship between relative wages and relative endowments of skilled and unskilled labor suggests that the two types of labor should not be aggregated into a single factor of production. Growth accounting decomposition using a commonly used nested-CES aggregate production function that allows skilled and unskilled labor to be used as separate factors of production results in a significantly greater role for TFP in accounting for income differences across countries than that found by past studies. The finding that different aggregate production functions lead to significantly different conclusions about the role of TFP in accounting for cross-country income differences calls for a more general approach to understanding such differences.