Tourism development,energy consumption and Environmental Kuznets Curve: Trivariate analysis in the panel of developed and developing countries

The study investigates the relationship between economic growth, carbon dioxide emissions, tourism development, energy demand, domestic investment and health expenditures with an aim to test the validity of the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis in the panel of three diversified World's region including East Asia & Pacific, European Union and High income OECD and Non-OECD countries. The study covers the period of last nine years i.e. 2005–2013. The study used the principal component analysis (PCA) to construct tourism development index which is the amalgamation of number of tourists' arrivals, tourism receipts and international tourism expenditures. The results validate the inverted U-shaped relationship between carbon emissions and per capita income in the region. The results further substantiate the following causal relationships i.e. i) tourism-induced carbon emissions, ii) energy-induced emissions, iii) investment – induced emissions, iv) growth led tourism, v) investment led tourism and vi) health led tourism development in the region.     

Tourist arrivals,energy consumption and pollutant emissions in a developing economy–implications for sustainable tourism

Sustainable tourism management policies should aim at maximising economic benefits from tourist arrivals while minimising associated adverse impacts on the environment. This study assesses the short-run and long-run relationships between tourist arrivals, per capita economic output, emissions, energy consumption and capital formation, citing Nepal as a specific case study. We developed four hypotheses and tested them using time-series econometrics based on the autoregressive distributed lag model and Granger causality tests. The results provide strong evidence of an economy driven tourism sector where expansion in economic output leads to expansion in tourist arrivals. More tourist arrivals, in turn, generate positive impacts on gross capital formation. Energy consumption negatively affects tourist arrivals, calling for increased attention towards improving energy efficiency and energy diversity. We conclude that national policies to increase tourist arrivals should be integrated with national energy and environmental policies in order to facilitate the transition towards a sustainable tourism sector.     

Forecasting US Air Travelers to Europe,Caribbean and Asia

Travel and tourism are among the most important economic contributors to most, if not all, countries. According to the World Tourism Organization (WTO), the number of international arrivals showed remarkable growth, from 25 million international arrivals in 1950 to 699 million in 2000. This indicates an average annual growth rate of 7%. In the same period, tourism receipts recorded an average annual growth rate of 11%. In 2002, international tourism generated worldwide receipts of US$474 billion, corresponding to US$1.3 billion a day or US$675 per tourist arrival. In view of the important role that international tourism plays in the global economy, this research applied four time-series forecasting techniques to project the trend of US air travelers, a major source market, to Europe, Caribbean and Asia, the three leading outbound markets (second to Canada and Mexico) from the US in the period 2003–2005. Experimental outcomes reveal declining trends. This paper discusses the underlying factors for such trends. Lastly, this paper ends with a detailed discussion on policy implications.     

Impact of tourism on CO2 emission: evidence from Pakistan

This study investigates the carbon dioxide (CO₂) emission–tourist arrival–growth in Pakistan by taking time series data from the period of 1972 to 2013. The study applied three approaches of co-integration (autoregressive distributed lag bounds test, Johansen and Juselius and Gregory and Hansen structural break test) to confirm the valid long-run positive interaction between CO₂ emission and tourist arrivals. The robustness of cointegrating vectors is further checked using fully modified ordinary least square and dynamic ordinary least square tests and results validate the long-run coefficients. The results of variance decomposition method exhibit the uni-directional causality between CO₂ emission and tourist arrivals running from tourist arrival to CO₂ emission. It was therefore noted that policies which moderate the influence of tourism development to emission are necessary for reducing the harmful effect of tourist activities and also to increase the impact of tourism upon the economic growth. The study may guide policy-makers in formulating categorical energy and tourism development policies for sustainable growth for long periods.     

Troubled passage to India

India represents an interesting case of a country which, despite its size and its immense potential as a tourist destination, has seen relatively low levels of international tourist arrivals and receipts. In fact, growth in international arrivals and receipts in the country during the past decade has not kept pace with the global rates of increase. Two sets of interrelated factors have been found to be largely responsible for this poor performance of India's tourism sector. The first factor is the low prioritization of tourism in the hierarchy of development directions identified by the Government. As a consequence, key areas such as tourism infrastructure development, marketing and promotion, and manpower development have lagged behind the industry's requirements. The second factor relates to India's aviation policy, which has led to the lack of adequate and high quality air transport services into India. The paper will show how these factors have retarded the growth of the tourism industry in India and will offer some insights on how these problems could be addressed by the Government.     

境外旅游业碳排放研究综述

随着全球“低碳经济”热潮的掀起,旅游业作为减碳的重要部门,其碳排放问题成为全球关注的焦点之一.文章立足旅游碳排放视角,对国外关于旅游业三大主体碳排放的影响、旅游业碳排放的公众认知、旅游碳足迹测度、碳抵消目标及具体措施等研究进行了系统梳理,并据此构建了旅游业碳排放的研究框架,提出旅游碳足迹测度及碳减排等方面值得进一步探讨的问题,深入揭示了国外相关研究动态,并为我国旅游业低碳化发展提供一定的借鉴.     

绿色产业or黑色产业：旅游业碳排放统计边界的反思与重构

科学界定旅游业碳排放统计边界既是低碳旅游研究的难点,也是制定旅游业碳减排政策与措施的关键。已有研究在统计指标选取上多以借鉴和优化为主,计算结果难以相互佐证。文章基于经济学和法学相关领域溯源,逐一评价了现行统计指标,研究发现：（1）影响旅游业碳排放统计边界的主要因素是研究视角不同、统计口径混用,导致研究结果之间"横向不可比,纵向不可加";（2）"狭义"和"广义"统计边界的主要区别是后者在"污染者付费"的基础上兼顾"受益者负担"原则;（3）基于"属地责任原则",外部交通不属于旅游目的地碳源,而应计入"广义"的统计边界。研究指出：旅游业碳减排措施应明晰责任边界和外部性,兼顾经济收益和环境代价;在边界相对统一的前提下,不同研究对象的碳强度不同,旅游业是否为绿色产业应视具体情况而定。     

Assessing the importance of international tourism for the Turkish economy: A social accounting matrix analysis

The international tourism sector has grown rapidly in Turkey since the 1980s and Turkey ranks among the top ten countries in terms of tourist arrivals and receipts. Previous studies on international tourism in Turkey are partial equilibrium studies which emphasized the importance of the sector for foreign exchange earnings, employment creation, and economic growth. The social accounting matrix (SAM) modeling approach is superior to partial equilibrium analysis as it takes into account intersectoral linkages. This paper analyzes the contribution of international tourism to the Turkish economy using two SAMs for 1996 and 2002, respectively. Two analyses are conducted using the SAM impact model: (i) sectoral comparison of GDP elasticities, and (ii) SAM impact analysis of international tourism on output, value-added, and employment. The results show that the GDP elasticity of international tourism is relatively low and the impact of foreign tourist expenditures on domestic production, value-added (GDP), and employment in Turkey are modest. The results imply the possibility of leakage of foreign tourist expenditures out of the economy.     

The long-run impact of exchange rate regimes on international tourism flows

Notwithstanding the systematic inclusion of an exchange rate variable of some form in studies examining international tourism flows, hardly any research has been carried out to test for a possible exchange rate regime effect. Drawing from recent advances in exchange rate regime classifications, this paper begins to fill this gap by investigating the impact of exchange rate regimes on international tourism flows. The study employs a system generalized methods of moments (SYS-GMM) estimation for tourist arrivals on a panel of 27 Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and non OECD countries for the period 1980–2011. The results identify multiple exchange rate regime effects and support the importance of maintaining a relatively stable exchange rate to attract international tourist arrivals.     

Evolution of international tourist flows from 1995 to 2018: A network analysis perspective

Tourist arrivals and tourism revenues have been extensively studied to evaluate international tourist flows, whereas the structure and evolution of these flows have received less attention. Based on international tourist arrival data from 221 countries/regions during the period 1995–2018, this study applies network analysis to explore the structure and evolution of international tourist flows, and the roles and functions of countries/regions in the international tourist flow network. The results of this study reveal that the network density of international tourist flows is increasing. Countries/regions in Europe, East Asia and North America generally occupy a significantly important position within the international tourist flow network, especially Germany and China. Those geographically close countries/regions demonstrate the same or similar roles and positions in international tourism. This study has significant implications for tourist destination management and marketing.     

Examining the link between meetings,incentive, exhibitions,and conventions (MICE) and tourism demand using generalized methods of moments (GMM): the case of Singapore

ABSTRACT

This study investigates the impact of meetings, incentive, exhibitions, and conventions (MICE) on tourism demand in Singapore over a period of 10 years (2003–2012). Past studies have shown that MICE matters a great deal to host destinations but researchers have rarely conducted any empirical research to verify the significance of this sector to tourism demand. Our study intends to fill the gap by using Difference and System generalized methods of moments (GMM) estimators for dynamic panel models. Tourism demand is measured by tourist arrivals from the top 30 origins, and the influence of real income of the tourist generating country and real exchange rate is also examined. The GMM results show a significant positive relationship between tourism demand and MICE (with international meetings as proxies). Additionally, the findings reveal that tourism demand growth is significantly positive (negative) with respect to changes in income (relative prices). The coefficient of lagged tourist arrivals indicates a high level of habit persistence and revisiting.     

The impact of tourism developments on CO2 emissions: An advanced panel data estimation

Vulnerability and interaction between tourism and climate change are among the most important issues discussed recently. In this context, this study focuses primarily on how CO₂ emissions, the main source of global warming and climate change, react to tourism developments. To this end, the impact of tourism developments on CO₂ emissions in the most visited countries is examined from 1995 to 2014 by conducting the continuously updated fully modified (CUP-FM) and the continuously updated bias-corrected (CUP-BC) estimators. Empirical results indicate that tourism arrivals have an increasing effect on CO₂ emissions, while tourism receipts have a reducing effect on CO₂ emissions. Results also reveal a possible co-movement and causal relationship between tourism developments and CO₂ emissions in the long-run.     

Identifying a destination’s optimal tourist market mix: Does a superior portfolio model exist?

Extant tourism research has used various portfolio model types to determine optimal tourist market mixes which simultaneously maximize total tourist expenditure and minimise the instability of international inbound tourism demand. We analyse the three portfolio models that have been applied in the tourism literature: two varieties of a levels model (that use the level of tourist arrivals, or bed nights to quantify tourist activity) and a growth rates model (that deploys the growth in the level of tourist activity). Applying these models using per capita expenditure in four distinctively different destination countries (Australia, Greece, Japan, and USA), we demonstrate that the Levels Model 1 is superior to the Levels Model 2 and the Growth Rates Model. It produces solutions that provide noticeably higher tourist expenditure with less instability of international tourism demand than the status quo. Theoretical contributions and practical implications for tourism policy makers and destination marketers are discussed.     

Asymmetric effects of tourist arrivals on the hospitality industry

This study makes a unique contribution to the hospitality literature by examining the asymmetric effects of total tourist arrivals in six segments of tourist arrivals (pleasure, business, visiting relatives, conference, study, and others) on Taiwan’s hospitality industry. Regression test results confirm that the contribution of the overall tourist arrivals and both pleasure and visiting relatives segments to hospitality industry growth is not asymmetric, as it is found in periods of expansion and contraction. The beneficial effect of the business segment on hospitality industry growth is asymmetric, existing only in periods of business cycle expansion. However, the conference, study, and other segments make no significant contribution to hospitality industry growth. The study’s valuable policy implications offer guidance to Taiwan’s tourism authorities, hospitality business owners, and managers.     

综合国家距离对中国入境旅游的影响——基于CAGE距离框架的实证研究

入境旅游在旅游发展中具有重要战略地位,而我国入境旅游发展相对滞后,甚至影响到我国服务贸易的高质量发展。旅游具有异地性特征,现有研究往往从文化距离、行政距离、地理距离或经济距离等单一距离开展研究。然而,多种距离同时影响游客决策,单一距离模型降低了距离因素的解释力,同时纳入模型又会造成共线性问题,导致现有研究结论间存在矛盾,阻碍理论发展与应用。Ghemawat提出的国家距离框架基于多种距离形成评价总体国家距离的综合国家距离,得到普遍认可。文章基于国家距离框架,整合来自世界银行数据库、霍夫斯泰德文化维度官方数据、双边地理距离数据库、世界经济论坛等相关数据,形成2006—2018年我国55个客源国入境旅游的平衡面板数据,系统分析了综合国家距离对入境游客量的主效应、非线性影响,以及客源国互联网使用率的调节作用,得到如下结论:(1)综合国家距离是影响我国入境游客量的显著变量,距离对入境游的影响是文化距离、行政距离、地理距离和经济距离的复合效应;(2)综合国家距离与入境游客量之间呈正U形关系,综合国家距离可以是入境旅游的阻碍因素,也可以是促进因素,入境游客量随着综合国家距离增加而先减少后增加;(3)客源国互联网使用率没有弱化综合国家距离的影响,反而产生极化作用,极化了综合国家距离在拐点左侧的负影响和在拐点右侧的正影响。以上发现的主要价值为:(1)增进了对距离因素在国际旅游中作用的理解,提出影响入境游客量的综合国家距离变量;(2)识别出综合国家距离与入境游客量呈现正U形关系,证实综合国家距离是细分客源国市场的新变量;(3)揭示出客源国互联网使用率对综合国家距离产生的极化效应,突出了我国采用互联网传播目的地形象的必要性和重要性。     

The dynamics of tourism’s carbon footprint in Beijing,China

Abstract

Beijing is an important hub for global tourism, but the extent of tourism’s contribution to Beijing’s carbon footprint remains unclear. We integrated an environmentally extended multiregional input–output model and the tourism satellite account in a study to estimate the dynamics of Beijing’s tourism-related carbon footprint in the post-financial crisis period. Our findings indicate that from 2007 to 2012, whereas the carbon footprint of inbound tourists in Beijing steadily decreased, that of domestic tourists increased. The composition of carbon footprints for the consumption activities of inbound and domestic tourists differed substantially. We also traced the spatial distribution of carbon sources associated with tourism consumption in Beijing. In light of our findings, we offer recommendations to target the adoption of low-carbon consumption patterns by domestic tourists, and energy optimization of service suppliers by increasing energy use efficiency and the renewable energy ratio. In addition, we recommend that public and government should seek to lower energy costs and reduce carbon emissions throughout the life cycle of commodities. We conclude that the government and tourism authorities should actively promote carbon and wider environmental awareness, and that producers must seek to improve the efficiency of their energy use by reducing carbon emissions at source.     

全球气候变化背景下低碳旅游研究进展及可视化分析

低碳旅游研究是气候变化背景下旅游研究的前沿问题和关键领域。以Web of Science核心合集、CSSCI及CSCD数据库中关于低碳旅游的文献为基础,利用CiteSpace软件、Alluvial Generator程序、Excel统计功能进行国内外低碳旅游研究的可视化分析。结果表明：国外低碳旅游研究起步时间早,始于系统外部与旅游业相互作用视角,以生态环境和工程技术学科为基础,主要为了解决“碳中和”等现实问题,已形成固定的区域性合作网络;国外研究以定量研究为基本范式,其关键文献全部围绕旅游碳排放的测算,且已经形成了较完善的减碳体系。而国内低碳旅游研究与国外的快速发展时期相吻合,是从旅游业可持续发展角度开展研究,依附于旅游及经管类学科,尚未形成固定的合作网络;国内研究在概念理论的定性研究方面优于国外,但整体研究视角较为单一且未形成完整体系,其关键文献包含基础概念、理论体系、碳排放测算、影响因素分析等诸多方面。     

城市旅游业CO_2排放态势及旅游业低碳化发展模式

城市是旅游活动CO2排放的主要集中地。基于旅游者消费视角,文章以深圳市为例,对其2001~2011年旅游业碳足迹态势进行分析。结合脱钩理论和Kaya恒等式,以2011年为基期,模拟深圳市未来旅游业CO2排放量。研究表明:(1)深圳市近11年旅游业能源消费及CO2排放量呈逐步上升趋势;(2)旅游业能源消耗及CO2排放的变化规律与旅游业GDP、游客接待总量有着密切关系;(3)A模式惯性情景下2020年CO2排放将达到1578万t,为基期的1.92倍,与国家的承诺及旅游局的目标背道而驰;(4)B模式绝对脱钩情景下CO2排放增长为零,这是非常理想的模式,但"反增长计划"和"能源生产效率改进"两条道路都走不通;(5)C模式相对脱钩情景下CO2排放是基期的1.38倍,旅游业在维持适宜增长的同时能源消耗和CO2排放状况得到明显改善,C模式是既考虑发展权益又承担大国责任的适宜发展模式。文章最后指出,C模式的实现需要旅游产业发展战略由供给导向向需要导向转型,并采取能源替代、效率改进、技术研发、规制治理和社会创新等综合路径。     

北京冬奥会绿色低碳技术应用及其对低碳旅游的启示

北京冬奥会是中国提出"双碳"目标后的首个大型国际体育赛事,绿色办奥是北京冬奥会的举办理念之一。本文采用文献资料法和案例分析法,以北京冬奥会中碳减排技术与碳中和措施为研究导向,挖掘北京冬奥会绿色低碳技术的应用情况与经验,以及对低碳旅游发展的启示。研究表明：（1）北京冬奥会以"双碳"目标、可持续性理念与"两山"理论为指引,将碳减排技术与碳中和措施贯彻到赛前、赛时、赛后利用的全过程,为绿色低碳技术的转化与应用提供参考,并取得良好的社会效益、生态效益与经济效益。（2）北京冬奥会绿色低碳技术的应用对低碳旅游的可持续发展具有借鉴意义,本文从科学选址旅游项目、制定低碳旅游标准、高效利用现有设施、构建低碳能源体系、建立低碳交通体系、打造低碳产品体系、构建碳中和机制、鼓励游客绿色消费八个维度探讨低碳旅游发展的现实路径。     

离岸岛屿目的地旅游交通能耗与CO_2排放测算——以海口市为例

离岸岛屿目的地旅游交通能耗与排放的测算能更加清晰地反映旅游交通、乘飞机旅行造成的环境影响。国内现有的旅游业能耗与排放的测算几乎都使用的是国外5年甚至10年前的经验参数。文章采用自下而上法,最大限度地使用符合我国实际的各种交通方式能耗及排放强度的关键参数,并通过大量的实地调研,细化旅游交通组织,较为准确地测算了我国第二大岛海南岛首府海口市2011年旅游交通的能源消耗与CO2排放量。结果表明,2011年海口市旅游交通能耗为27.40PJ(皮焦,1皮焦等于1015焦),占当年全市总能耗的22.10%;旅游交通CO2排放总量为2.06Mt(兆吨,1兆吨等于106吨)。对于离岸岛屿旅游目的地而言,无烟产业的定论被打破,旅游业正在或已经成为海口市重点用能产业。离岸岛屿目的地旅游业为应对气候变化和节能减排,应设法延长游客的停留天数、减少进出往返的飞行次数;并在充分研究论证的基础上,适时考虑开征设立航空排放税、旅游环境税或生态补偿基金等。鉴于旅游交通等旅游能耗统计基础薄弱,建议组建专业化的旅游能源统计机构,切实加强旅游能耗统计管理。