Immigration and remittances in a two-country model of growth with labor market frictions

We present a North-South model with labor market frictions and labor migration to study the dynamic implications of workers mobility on employment, capital accumulation and welfare. In the baseline model, the Northern country is able to control immigration flows by setting a cap on the number of foreign workers. We find that, despite an increase in migration displaces native employment in the short-run, a permanent raise of the migration cap stimulates capital accumulation, improves labor market conditions and increases social welfare in the long run. In an extension of the model, we also test the long-run effects of a pro-employment protectionist policy consisting in imposing a distortionary tax on immigrant employment. We find that the protectionist policy in North, while increasing national welfare, damages the macroeconomic performance of the domestic economy and is not effective in improving native employment.     

The dynamic impact of immigration on natives' labor market outcomes: Evidence from Israel

This paper studies the short and medium run impact of highly skilled immigrants from the Former Soviet Union to Israel on natives' wages and employment. If immigrants are relatively good substitutes for native workers, the impact of immigration will be largest immediately upon the immigrants' arrival, and may become smaller as the labor market adjusts to the supply shock. Conversely, if immigrants upon arrival are poor substitutes for natives, the initial effect of immigration is small, and increases over time as immigrants acquire local labor market skills and compete with native workers. We empirically examine these alternative hypotheses using data from Israel between 1989 and 1999.We find that wages of both men and women are negatively correlated with the fraction of immigrants with little local experience in a labor market segment. A 10 percent increase in the share of immigrants lowers natives' wages in the short run by 1–3 percent, but this effect dissolves after 4–7 years. This result is robust to a variety of different segmentations of the labor market, to the inclusion of cohort effects, and to different dynamic structures in the residual term of the wage equation. On the other hand, we do not find any effect of immigration on employment, neither in the short nor in the medium run.     

The effect of immigration on unemployment in Europe: Does the core-periphery dualism matter?

The migrant crisis is one of the most challenging tasks the EU has ever faced. This paper uses a Panel Error Correction Model to assess the direction of the impact of immigration on domestic unemployment, in the short and in the long run, for a sample of 15 EU countries between 1997 and 2016. We test for different effects in core and periphery countries based on differences in macroeconomic fundamentals and labor market characteristics. In the long run, immigration is found to reduce unemployment in peripheral countries only, whereas in the short run, we find that immigration reduces unemployment for the whole sample. However, country-specific coefficients based on interactions with labour market characteristics indicate that short-run impacts are larger in Scandinavian and Anglo-Saxon countries. Conversely, Italy, Greece and Portugal show the smallest impacts. Our results suggest that negative sentiments toward immigration due to labour market competition are mostly unjustified.     

Nontraded Goods,Capital Taxes,and Temporary Immigration in a Small Open Economy

This paper extends the standard (one-good, two-factor) model of international capital and labor mobility by incorporating a nontraded good within a small capital-exporting, labor-importing country. It examines, from this country's perspective, the effects of capital taxes and temporary immigration on the nominal wage, and on welfare, and derives the optimal policy toward capital. It demonstrates, among other things, that (i) the optimal policy toward capital may be a tax on its domestic rate of return, depending on the factor intensity of the nontraded good and on the relationship between capital and labor in production, and (ii) the distinction between temporary and permanent immigration is important in evaluating its effects on various economic variables. [F20, F22]     

The macroeconomic impact of foreign labour influx into the industrialized nation state and the complementary policies

This paper makes a numerical assessment on the macroeconomic impact of foreign labor influx into the industrialized nation state allowing free trade in goods but imposing an immigration quota on labor, and then explores the complementary policies for the impact of foreign labor influx. One of the main findings is that immigration itself brings welfare gains only if prices are flexible, but a skill-biased intake policy can bring a much larger welfare gain. The complementary policy options to boost welfare gains by immigration increase are monetary expansion, adopting foreign components more, and influencing foreign demand for intermediate goods indirectly by inviting foreign direct investment. For these policies to cope, the destination country should try to correct the market structure so that prices can be flexible.     

The immigration surplus and the substitutability of immigrant and native labor: evidence from Spain

How immigration affects the labor market of the host country is a topic of major concern for many immigrant-receiving nations. Spain is no exception, as a consequence of the rapid increase in immigrant flows experienced over the past few decades. We assess the impact of immigration on Spanish natives’ incomes by estimating the net immigration surplus (IS) under the assumption of perfect and imperfect substitutabilities between immigrant and native labor of similar educational attainment. To address the imperfect substitutability between immigrant and native labor, we use information on the occupational distribution of immigrants and natives of similar educational attainment to learn about the equivalency of skilled immigrants to skilled and unskilled natives. The results show that the magnitude of the IS significantly rises with the degree of imperfect substitutability between immigrant and native labor.     

Migration Policy in a Small Open Economy with a Dual Labor Market

The paper uses a two–sector efficiency–wage model to analyze the consequences of immigration for a small open economy with a dual labor market. Immigrants are characterized by an (exogenous) return probability. Legal regulations impose preferential hiring of natives or "old" immigrants. As a result, there is sectoral segregation between natives and immigrants, leading to discrimination of the type equal pay for equal work,but unequal "work." In the short run (with sector–specific capital), immigration has a positive first–order impact on natives' welfare if migration policy favors segregation through high return rates or restrictive hiring practices ("guest–worker system"). In the long run, its effect is only determined by factor intensities (2 ¥ 2 model). Finally, the improved integration of migrants yields efficiency gains and improves aggregate welfare of all residents.     

Migration and labour markets in OECD countries: a panel cointegration approach

This article examines the interaction between immigration and the host labour market of 14 Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries using nonstationary panel data methodology. We estimate a trivariate Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) and derive causality tests to simultaneously assess the long- and short-term macroeconomic impact of newcomers on wages and unemployment levels in the host country. The results suggest that an increase of migrants is likely to increase wages in the destination countries in the short run but to increase them in the long run. There is no evidence of adverse effects on unemployment due to immigration in short and long-term except for Anglo-Saxon countries in the short term. Our findings also show that immigration is conditioned by levels of unemployment and wages especially in Anglo-Saxon countries.     

Immigration, Unemployment and Pensions

This paper examines the impact of immigration on a host country with welfare state arrangements that support both the unemployed and the elderly. It is shown that low‐skilled immigration increases the unemployment rate. Furthermore, it harms the low‐skilled native population and benefits the high‐skilled natives and pensioners. Nevertheless, as under competitive labor markets, immigration generates an unambiguous gain for the native population as a whole. However, in contrast to the findings under full employment, this gain can be dampened by an expansion of the pension system.     

Local Labor Supply Responses to Immigration

How natives adjust is central to an understanding of the impact of immigration in destination countries. Using detailed labor force data for Malaysia for 1990–2010, we provide estimates of native responses to immigration on multiple extensive margins and rare evidence for a developing country. Instrumental variable estimates show that increased immigration to a state causes substantial internal inward migration, consistent with the fact that immigration increases the demand for native workers. Relocating Malaysian workers are accompanied by their spouses (three‐quarters of whom are housewives) and children who attend school. We find that these effects are concentrated among middle‐ and lower‐skilled Malaysians.     

Controlling Illegal Immigration: Border Control vs. Domestic Enforcement

This paper presents a two-country general equilibrium model where international mobility of labor is prohibited. Illegal immigration nevertheless occurs. The probability of success at illegal immigration depends on resources allocated to border control and domestic enforcements. We examine the effects of switching resources form border control to domestic enforcement on illegal immigration and on welfare levels. We characterize the allocation of resources between the two methods of immigration control, that minimizes illegal immigration, and find that, starting from this allocation, moving resources from border control to domestic enforcement is unambiguously welfare improving for the destination country.

     

Welfare Effects of Immigration Policies in the Presence of Skilled,Unskilled Labor and Capital Mobility

This paper investigates the welfare consequences of immigration policies in a model with two types of labor, skilled and unskilled, and international capital mobility. The paper examines the effect of government policies, which change the immigration cost and cause immigration of one type of labor, on the welfare of natives, when the other types of labor and/or capital are also mobile. It is shown, for example, in the absence of capital mobility, if skilled and unskilled labor are highly complementary in production, then a decrease in the immigration cost of the net fiscal contributor skilled labor that causes its immigration, decreases the welfare of natives.     

我国农民工进城务工区域差异的实证分析

工业化对于一个国家经济腾飞的必然性,已经被西方发达国家的经验和道路所证实。在实现工业化的过程中,农村劳动力转移是世界各国都曾经或必将面对的课题。现阶段,我国农村劳动力转移突出地表现为农民工进城问题。文章采用第一手调查资料,从农户行为的微观角度研究了农民工进城的区域差异及其影响因素。分析显示:“沿海”和“内陆”农民工在进城动因和障碍、进城途径、进城费用和收入等方面既表现出一些共同的趋势和规律,也显示出一定的差异性。结合区域特点,制定相宜的政策,将加快我国劳动力转移的步伐。     

Changes in income distribution and welfare from greater immigration of unskilled workers

This paper considers the consequences of greater immigration of unskilled labor on income distribution and welfare in the receiving country. To address these issues, both the sending and receiving countries are represented in a static general equilibrium model which distinguishes between skilled and unskilled labor and which allows prices to be determined endogenously. In this framework an inflow of unskilled labor is likely to reduce wages of unskilled labor, but whether capital or skilled labor benefits depends upon demand elasticities, elasticities of substitution in production, and differences across countries in the productivity of unskilled labor. National welfare in the receiving country is likely to rise, to the extent that the relative price of importable goods falls, non-residents already in the country receive lower wages, immigrants receive lower wages than those paid to domestic workers, and immigrants cause little increased demand for public services and transfer programs.     

Concessional Amnesty and the Politics of Immigration Reforms

This paper establishes a political support model of immigration reforms. The analysis highlights the distinction between border enforcement and employer sanction measures in that the former can be more aptly characterized as an income transfer from employer to native labor interests, whereas the latter generates deadweight losses that are borne entirely by producers. We show that while amnesty may appear to run contrary to the original intent of the immigration reform, it may nevertheless facilitate rent capture by the politician by "wiping the slate clean" and reducing the deadweight loss of employer sanction measures.     

Public consumer goods, output-generated variable returns, and labor supply

This paper develops a simple general-equilibrium model of a closed economy. The economy under consideration produces two final goods, one private and one public, which are both produced with labor and an intermediate good under constant returns to scale. The intermediate good is produced by labor alone, and its production is subject to output-generated variable returns to scale. The public good can be interpreted as government spending on environmental quality, police protection, cultural activities, and publicly funded health care. The model is used to examine the impact of an exogenous change in labor supply on the size of the government, relative prices, and welfare. Within the context of the present study, an increase in labor supply can be attributed to either exogenous immigration or population growth. The model is also used to examine the relationship between the size of the country and the pattern of trade.     

Immigration vs. outsourcing: Effects on labor markets

Anti-globalizers are concerned, inter alia, with the effects on a developed country's real wage rate of legal or illegal immigration, as well as the outsourcing of labor-intensive activities abroad. Although a lowering of the wage rate may ensue, it is by no means a logical necessity. I show that either immigration or outsourcing of a labor-intensive fragment of production may serve to raise the wage rate of national labor in a developed country. As well, I point out how these two effects differ from each other.     

Social Security Policy and International Labor and Capital Mobility

This paper studies the connection between social security policy and international factor movements within a two-country overlapping-generations model with production. Incentives for factor movements emerge because one country relies on private savings while the other country operates a social security system. The pattern of migration depends on the steady-state capital–labor ratios compared with the Golden Rule capital–labor ratios. Incentives to migrate do not vanish in the long run and one country might empty out. Capital always moves to the social-security country. Without compensation neither labor nor capital mobility represents a Pareto improvement for the economy.     

Selective Immigration Policies and Wages Inequality

We quantify the overall impact of immigration on native wages in France from 1990 to 2010. Our short‐run simulations indicate that immigration has decreased native wages by 0.6%. We find on average no impact of immigration on wages in the long run. However, we show that the long‐run effects of immigration on wages are detrimental to high‐skilled native workers and benefits to low‐skilled native workers. Our structural estimation allows us to evaluate the impact of “selective” migration policies. In particular, we find that selective immigration policies toward highly educated workers reduce the wage dispersion of French native workers.     

IMMIGRATION UNEMPLOYMENT RELATIONSHIP: THE EVIDENCE FROM CANADA*

This paper examines the relationship between unemployment and immigration in Canada. The bi‐directional causality test finds no evidence of a significant effect of Canadian immigration on unemployment. Cointegration tests indicate that there is no observed increase in aggregate unemployment due to immigration in the long run. The results from the causality test based on the vector error correction model confirm that, in the short run, past unemployment does cause (less) immigration but not vice versa. There is also a long‐run positive relationship among per‐capita GDP, immigration rate and real wages. The results indicate that, in the short‐run, more immigration is possibly associated with attractive Canadian immigration policies, and in the long‐run, as the labour market adjusts, Canadian‐born workers are likely to benefit from increased migration.