Debt, taxes, and international equilibrium

This paper employs an extended Miller model to analyze capital structure decisions of individual firms in a two-country setting. Miller equilibria are generally not consistent with an international equilibrium if the tax subsidy of debt differs across countries. The most obvious reason for differential tax subsidies is differences between national corporate tax rates. We also identify differential tax subsidies of debt if inflation rates differ across countries. For both cases we examine the adjustment process from national equilibria to an international equilibrium without and with barriers to international investment. We derive the relationship between the equilibrium yields on debt and equity in the two countries and discuss the Fisher hypothesis that real returns do not depend upon inflation in a two-country Miller world.     

The Equity Share in New Issues and Aggregate Stock Returns

The share of equity issues in total new equity and debt issues is a strong predictor of U.S. stock market returns between 1928 and 1997. In particular, firms issue relatively more equity than debt just before periods of low market returns. The equity share in new issues has stable predictive power in both halves of the sample period and after controlling for other known predictors. We do not find support for efficient market explanations of the results. Instead, the fact that the equity share sometimes predicts significantly negative market returns suggests inefficiency and that firms time the market component of their returns when issuing securities.     

Nonfinancial Firms as Cross‐Market Arbitrageurs

I demonstrate that nonfinancial corporations act as cross‐market arbitrageurs in their own securities. Firms use one type of security to replace another in response to shifts in relative valuations, inducing negatively correlated financing flows in different markets. Net equity repurchases and net debt issuance both increase when expected excess returns on debt are particularly low, or when expected excess returns on equity are relatively high. Credit valuations affect equity financing as much as equity valuations do, and vice versa. Cross‐market corporate arbitrage is most prevalent among large, unconstrained firms, and helps account for aggregate financing patterns.     

The Impact of Trust-Preferred Issuance on Bank Default Risk and Cash Flow: Evidence from the Debt and Equity Securities Markets

Trust‐preferred stock is a debt‐equity hybrid that offers the tax deductibility of dividends but is treated as equity capital by bank regulators and rating agencies. The purpose of this paper is to examine whether holders of bank debt securities benefit from trust‐preferred issuance in the form of lower default premia and whether bank shareholders benefit from the tax deductibility of trust‐preferred dividends. Using daily returns surrounding the Federal Reserve's announcement that trust‐preferred securities would be included as a component of commercial banks' Tier I equity capital, we find evidence to support both hypotheses.     

Bank portfolio exposure to emerging markets and its effects on bank market value

This study estimates a model of banking company equity returns taking into consideration book value and market value measures of their exposure to emerging markets debt. In this estimation, general systematic market factors, such as the rate of return on the S&P500 stock index and yields on a constant maturity 5-year Treasury note, are held constant such that the exposure variables are accounting for effects due to banks’ exposure to emerging market debt. The results, although not uniform among banking companies, support the hypothesis that the extent of exposure to emerging market debt are factored into the valuation of banking company equity contemporaneously. The inclusion of a market value indicator adds to the explanation of equity returns of some banks. It is also clear that knowing the extent of the exposure on a book value basis is important information alone that may allow investors to take account of or evaluate the effects of changes in banking company equity valuation from LDC debt exposures. We also perform an event study for three major debt crises to determine whether the market recognizes the effects of these events on bank valuation. The event study results show that there is little information from identifying the time period of the crises on banking company equity returns. Explanations for this are that the information of these possible crises has been embedded in bank changes in exposure and that the market valuation of the emerging market debt is already accounted for by our model.     

Equity and debt issuance by firms violating GAAP

We examine security issuance in restated periods by firms that misreport financial statements and find that only a small per cent of such firms issues securities in the restated period. Investors are misled by mistakes made by firms issuing equity more so than other restating firms at the initial announcement of misreported earnings, but are not misled by mistakes made by debt‐issuing firms. Equity‐issuing firms that manage earnings to beat analyst expectations experience abnormally high returns in the restated period prior to security issuance. Firms that restated more reports and have higher pre‐mistake returns are more likely to issue equity. High leverage, firm size and number of restated periods are positively associated with the likelihood of debt issuance by restating firms.     

The long-run performance of firms that issue convertible debt: an empirical analysis of operating characteristics and analyst forecasts

Many firms issue hybrid securities, such as convertible debt, instead of standard securities like straight debt or common equity. Theoretical arguments suggest that convertible debt minimizes costs for firms facing high debt- and equity-related external financing costs. Theory also suggests that an appropriately designed convertible security provides efficient investment incentives. We show, however, that firms on average perform poorly following the issuance of convertible debt. The empirical evidence suggests that the efficient investment decisions predicted by theory are not in fact achieved by the actual design and issuance of convertible debt securities. An alternative interpretation of convertible debt offers is that investors ration the participation of some issuers in the seasoned equity market.     

Inflation Accounting Disclosures and Stock Price Adjustments: Some Canadian Results

This article tests for an association between security returns and anticipated and unanticipated inflation. Inflation accounting disclosures are used to group securities on the basis of their sensitivity to inflation. Nominal security returns and residual returns are independently regressed on the levels of anticipated and unanticipated inflation using a dummy variable model. Results support previous U.S. findings that investors do not seem to use these accounting disclosures in the selection of securities. The evidence indicates, however, that for firms “less affected” by inflation, there exists an association between residual returns and anticipated inflation.     

Implied Equity Duration: A New Measure of Equity Risk

Duration is an important and well-established risk characteristic for fixed income securities. We use recent developments in financial statement analysis research to construct a measure of duration for equity securities. We find that the standard empirical predictions and results for fixed income securities extend to equity securities. We show that stock price volatility and stock beta are both positively correlated with equity duration. Moreover, estimates of common shocks to expected equity returns extracted using our measure of equity duration capture a strong common factor in stock returns. Additional analysis shows that the book-to-market ratio provides a crude measure of equity duration and that our more refined measure of equity duration subsumes the Fama and French (1993) book-to-market factor in stock returns. Our research shows how structured financial statement analysis can be used to construct superior measures of equity security risk.     

Liquidity,the Value of the Firm,and Corporate Finance*

The theory of corporate finance has been based on the idea that a company's market value is determined mainly by just two variables: the company's expected aftertax operating cash flows or earnings, and the risk associated with producing them. The authors argue that there is another important factor affecting a company's value: the liquidity of its own securities, debt as well as equity. The paper supports this argument by reviewing the large and growing body of evidence showing that differences—and, perhaps even more important, sudden changes—in liquidity can have major effects on the pricing of corporate stocks and bonds or, equivalently, on investors' required returns for holding them. The authors also suggest that the liquidity of a company's securities can be managed by corporate policies and actions. For those companies whose value is likely to be increased by having more liquid securities—which is by no means true of all companies (for example, mature firms with little need for outside equity are likely to benefit from having more concentrated ownership and hence less liquidity)—management should consider actions such as reducing leverage and substituting dividends for stock repurchases as well as measures designed to increase the effectiveness of their disclosure and investor relations program and the size of their retail investor base.     

FINANCIAL STRUCTURE AND FINANCIAL STRATEGY

Even if the value of the firm is unaffected by its capital structure, managers may have reasons to choose a particular structure. The prices of the firm's securities reflect the “market's” assessment of the value and riskiness of the firm. Should managers disagree with the market's assessment of the firm's risk or value, they will also disagree about the relative returns on the firm's securities. Concern about shareholder welfare may, therefore, lead them to prefer a specific capital structure. If managers believe the market has underestimated the firm's value, they will prefer debt financing; if the market has overestimated risk, they will prefer equity; and, if managers disagree about both risk and value, they may prefer to finance using both debt and equity.     

Capital Gains, Dividend Yields, and Expected Inflation

One explanation for the negative relationship between short-horizon stock returns and inflation is that inflation proxies (inversely) for expected future real output. In this paper, I examine the possibility that inflation also proxies for variation in real price/dividend ratios (excess returns). I show that when the covariance between real price/dividend ratios and inflation is nonzero, the relationship between returns and expected inflation differs for the two components of returns: dividend yields and capital gains returns. My empirical evidence demonstrates that dividend yields and capital gains are related differently to expected inflation in U.S. and foreign markets.     

UNANTICIPATED INFLATION, TAXATION, AND COMMON STOCKS

This paper focuses on the effects of unanticipated inflation on the market value of equity in a system with corporation tax and historic cost depreciation. It is shown that there exists a unique combination of debt and equity under which inflation neutrality is obtained, Whether or not unanticipated inflation hurts or benefits the stockholders in a particular firm depends upon a number of conditions. These include the depreciation rate of its assets relative to the amortization rate of its debt. Finally, the present tax system is contrasted with a fully indexed system involving replacement cost depreciation and indexation     

Trust‐Preferred Securities and Insurer Financing Decisions

We analyze insurance holding company (IHC) issuance of trust‐preferred securities (TPS) from 1994 to 2013. We find that larger and more financially levered IHCs issued TPS in 1996 and 1997, as well as those that obtained financial strength ratings from A.M. Best. Abnormal stock price returns are positively related to financial distress costs, growth opportunities, and tax burden, but negatively related to size. Consistent with the pecking order theory, intent to use TPS proceeds to retire debt is positively related to abnormal stock returns, whereas intent to use proceeds to retire preferred equity is negatively related to abnormal stock returns.     

Information Content of Earnings and Earnings Components of Commercial Banks: Impact of SFAS No. 115

SFAS No. 115 modified classification of debt and equity securities held by firms and also modified the reporting format for unrealised gains/losses on security transactions (URGL). This study investigates whether implementation of SFAS No. 115 improved information content of earnings and earnings components of commercial banks. Improvement in the information content is measured by comparing the association between equity returns and earnings and earnings components of the post-adoption period of SFAS No. 115 with the pre-adoption period.The test results indicate that the association of equity returns with earnings components and aggregate earnings is significantly stronger in the post-adoption period compared to the pre-adoption period. The improvement is especially evident for the components of URGL and non-interest revenues. These results suggest that information provided by earnings components is considered more value relevant for investment decision after implementation of SFAS No. 115. Findings on non-interest revenues indicate that revenues from banking activities other than lending also play an important role in the commercial banks' profitability.     

SIMULTANEOUS DEBT AND EQUITY ISSUES AND CAPITAL STRUCTURE TARGETS

Numerous empirical studies find evidence that managers behave as if they pursue target debt ratios. A possible alternative to the use of conventional, separate issuances of debt and equity to effect desired adjustments toward a target ratio is the simultaneous issuance of such securities. We extend prior research on such issues by exploring their use in the pursuit of capital structure targets. We find that the issuance of securities in general and the use of simultaneous issues of debt and equity in particular are at least partially influenced by where a firm's capital structure is relative to the average position in its industry. Further, shareholders' reactions to the announced plan to issue and to the issuance of securities are influenced, in part, by whether the issue moves the firm toward or away from the average capital structure in the industry. We also find evidence that the infrequent use of simultaneous issues relative to unaccompanied debt and equity issues is explained by their comparative flotation costs.     

Adverse Selection,Investor Experience and Security Choice in Venture Capital Finance: Evidence from Germany

This article analyses 336 German venture capital transactions from 1990 to 2005 and seeks to determine why selected financial securities differ across deals. We find that a broad array of financial instruments is used, covering straight equity, mezzanine and debt‐like securities. Based on the chosen financial securities’ upside potential and downside protection characteristics, we provide an explanation for the differing use of these securities. Our results show that investors’ deal experience, adverse selection risks and economic prospects in the public equity market influence the selection of financial securities.     

Inflation Expectations and Risk Premiums in an Arbitrage‐Free Model of Nominal and Real Bond Yields

Differences between yields on comparable‐maturity U.S. Treasury nominal and real debt, the so‐called breakeven inflation (BEI) rates, are widely used indicators of inflation expectations. However, better measures of inflation expectations could be obtained by subtracting inflation risk premiums (IRP) from the BEI rates. We provide such decompositions using an affine arbitrage‐free model of the term structure that captures the pricing of both nominal and real Treasury securities. Our empirical results suggest that long‐term inflation expectations have been well anchored over the past few years, and IRP, although volatile, have been close to zero on average.     

The Asymmetric Response of Equity REIT Returns to Inflation

This paper posits that the failure of past studies to document a positive relationship between REIT (Real Estate Investment Trust) returns and inflation is an artifact of the empirical framework that has predominated in these studies. Applying a pooled estimation methodology to an expansive data set containing 195 publicly traded equity REITs for the period 1981–2002, the study documents a strong asymmetry in the response of equity REIT returns to inflation. Specifically, when expected and unexpected inflation are separated into positive and negative changes, results indicate that equity REIT returns rise in response to both increases and decreases in inflation. The evidence, which is partly contingent on the prevailing monetary policy environment, carries important policy implications for portfolio management and provides insights into the observed anomalous relationship between REITs and inflation.     

Using Corporate Inflation Protected Securities to Hedge Interest Rate Risk

In the first half of 2008, rising inflation became a concern, but by the fall the focus was on deflation. Such shifts in the outlook for inflation represent a significant risk for some companies, particularly those whose revenues and profits are negatively affected by increases in inflation and rates. For such companies, the use of long‐term fixed‐rate debt will provide at least a partial hedge against increased rates. Less widely appreciated is that even companies whose profits move up and down with inflation face considerable risk from fluctuations in interest rates. Conventional wisdom holds that floating‐rate debt hedges this risk. But this article argues that floating‐rate debt still leaves a company exposed to increases in real interest rates. Inflation‐sensitive companies such as utilities can use corporate inflation‐protected securities (CIPS) to hedge their real interest rate risk as well as inflation risk. In addition to its hedging benefits, CIPS also have the potential to reduce borrowing costs by satisfying growing investor demand for high‐quality securities that provide inflation protection (including demand sources like the recent restoration of French savings accounts to inflation).