全要素生产率、投入替代与地区间的能源效率

本文通过对传统的能源效率指标进行分解,考察了1986—2010年间我国各地区能源效率及其影响因素的变化情况,得到以下结论:(1)能源效率变化的主要影响因素按贡献大小的排列分别是技术进步、投入替代变化与效率改善。总体上看,全要素生产率的作用要大于投入替代。技术效率变化与技术进步对能源效率的影响与我国的市场化改革进程存在密切关系;(2)尽管地区间"能源效率缺口"绝对量在逐年扩大,但表现出一定的追赶与收敛趋势。能源效率的地区结构差异表现出一定的地带性;(3)在能源效率变化的三个分解项中,投入替代变化的差异是影响地区间能源效率差异的首要因素。以上分析结果不仅有助于理解中国及各地区的能源效率及其影响因素的变化趋势,而且将为节能减排政策的制定与完善提供一定的参考依据。     

Technological Change in Australian Manufacturing

In the modern era, the extent and character of technical change features prominently in discussions of productivity growth and movements in the competitiveness of manufacturing. While technical change is pervasive in modern manufacturing, it occurs unevenly. In this study, technical change is estimated by fitting dual cost functions for each of 38 sectors of Australian manufacturing over the 32 year period, 1968–69 to 1999–2000. The estimates show that technical change is heavily labour-saving in all industries, but that the overall rate of change, as measured by a rate of cost diminution, and the degree of bias towards saving labour, rather than capital or material, varies substantially across industries.     

The Effect of Nominal Demand Shocks on Manufacturing Output: Evidence from Disaggregated Australian Data*

The menu costs model predicts that during times of rapid inflation firms are less likely to vary output in response to changes in nominal aggregate demand. This paper tests the proposition using a disaggregated sample of Australian three-digit ASIC manufacturing industries. The results show that a significant number of Australian industries exhibit behaviour that is consistent with this prediction. In addition, the results show that the variability of inflation and changes to the import penetration ratio also influence the response of output to nominal demand changes.     

Brookings on the Australian Economy*

This paper offers a review of two central issues of macroeconomic management, nominal wage determination and the relative roles for fiscal expansion and real wage restraint, discussed in the Brookings study of the Australian economy. Consideration is given to the book, The Australian Economy: A View from the North, edited by Richard E. Caves and Lawrence B. Krause, George Allen & Unwin, Sydney 1984, and to the January 1984 conference discussion.     

Cyclical and Competitive Influences on Pricing in Australian Manufacturing

Dynamic pricing equations are estimated using an error correction model, with data on a panel of 89 Australian manufacturing industries for the 14 years, 1971172 through 1984/85. The overall pattern is consistent with prices approximately following a fixed mark-up rule in low concentration industries, while the mark-up factor in high concentration industries is strongly pro-cyclical. Also, in high concentration industries that are heavily exposed to import competition, the mark-up factor increases with prices of foreign competing products and with the general price level for domestic manufactures.     

Australian Government Policy on Retirement Incomes*

Australia has evolved an unusual dual system of retirement incomes support. There is a means-tested flat rate age pension and a system of occupational superannuation receiving considerable tax concessions. The current system gives rise to four major problems. These are enumerated and possible options for reform discussed.     

The Cost of Monopoly in Australian Manufacturing

This article looks at the deadweight loss arising from monopoly elements in Australian manufacturing under various assumptions and its relationship with the level of concentration.     

The Determinants of Firm Profitability in Australian Manufacturing

This study provides new evidence on the determinants of the profitability of Australian manufacturing firms by analyzing a unique firm-level data set of firm performance over the period 1984-93. The panel nature of the data permits the estimation of dynamic profitability models over the business cycle, to test both the persistence and cyclicality of firm profitability. Econometric results suggest that lagged profitability is a significant determinant of current profit margins, and that industry concentration is positively related to firm profit margins. Also, profit margins are found to be procyciical in concentrated industries but counter-cyclical in less concentrated industries.     

A Regional Analysis of Technical Change in Australian Manufacturing

Manufacturing is an important sector to many Australian regional areas. Technical change is important to the economic performance of manufacturing and improvements in competitive advantage. In this paper, technical change in manufacturing is estimated for each of the Australian States using a cointegration framework, for the period 1954–55 to 1995–96. Regional differences in technical change are identified.     

The Impact of International Trade and Protection on Australian Manufacturing Employment

The labour market consequences of trade and protection have only recently come under the scrutiny of labour economists. This paper seeks to accomplish two things - to survey the recent research and to provide estimates of the effect that reductions in effective rates of assistance afforded to Australia's manufacturing industries have had on employment. Recent labour market developments reveal a downward trend in manufacturing employment levels. The declines appear to have been associated with lower levels of assistance. However, the estimates of the effect of lower levels of protection are generally small - about a one per cent reduction in employment for each ten per cent reduction in the effective rate of industry assistance. In addition, the manufacturing employment developments appear to be only weakly linked to real wage resistance. Overall, an overriding impression from the find ings presented in this paper is the strength of the structural adjustments ongoing in Australia     

Testing for Equilibrium in the Australian Wage Equation*

In this paper a range of unit root and cointegration tests are applied to the time-series variables most commonly found in the various specifications of the Australian wage equation. We find a contradiction between the standard Dickey-Fuller (DF) tests and the results from Johansen estimation regarding the order of integration. The conclusion we reach using tests developed by Perron (1989,1990) is that all the variables are trend stationary processes and that the cointegration framework is inappropriate in this case.     

The Pattern and Determinants of Intra-Industry Trade in Australian Manufacturing

This paper presents the pattern and determinants of intra-industry trade (IIT) in Australian manufacturing since the late 1970s. The results point to a sharp rise in IIT from the mid 1980s which appears to be linked with an outward-oriented policy. Industry-level analysis indicates that industries which experienced a sharp fall in protection are the industries with the higher levels of IIT. These include textiles, garments, rubber products, and machinery and equipment. An increasing trend in IIT suggests that the short-term adjustment costs associated with trade liberalisation are likely to be lower, and that liberalisation can proceed without huge short-term adjustment costs. Using a logit model the determinants of IIT are investigated. Results indicate that IIT is positively related to product differentiation and scale economies, and negatively related to the levels of protection and foreign ownership in the pre-liberalisation period. In the post-liberalisation period, however, scale economies explain the inter-industry variations in IIT. R&D intensity and close economic integration appear to have no impact on IIT regardless of the nature of the policy regime.     

The Duration of Industrial Disputes in Australian Mining and Manufacturing

Using a unique dispute-level database of industrial action in Australian mining and manufacturing industries, this paper investigates the determinants of the duration of industrial action. For the first time in the Australian literature, the duration of individual disputes is analysed within a hazard function framework that estimates conditional settlement probabilities over the duration of the dispute. Further, the analysis is conducted for both strikes and non-strike forms of industrial action such as bans on working overtime. A range of parametric and semi-parametric specifications are estimated in order to determine the sensitivity of the results to alternative econometric techniques. The duration of both strikes and work bans are found to be affected by a range of factors, including the state of the labour market, industry characteristics, past union experiences and the cause of the dispute. The conditional settlement rate of both strikes and bans are found to be upward sloping, implying that the longer that a dispute has already lasted, the more likely that it is to end. However, failing to control for unobserved heterogeneity results in bias toward declining conditional settlement rates.     

Profitability and Concentration in Australian Manufacturing Industries:A Reply

This brief note takes the adjusted profitability data series suggested by Leech and Grant, and shows that the weak and generally not strongly significant effect which concentration has on such profitability data (as shown by Leech and Grant) becomes even weaker and less significant when the model is more appropriately specified to include a capital-output variable.     

Sex Differences in Labour Turnover in the Australian Public Service*

This paper reports the use of a large data set of Australian government employees in an analysis of the influence of sex on voluntary labour turnover. Estimates derived from a conventional quit model are used to obtain ceteris paribus sex specific quit probabilities. These suggest that once other relevant variables are held constant, the expected quit differences between men and single women are significantly reduced. The analysis indicates clearly that the use of aggregate statistics may substantially exaggerate turnover differences attributable to sex.     

制造业中间投入服务化趋势分析——基于OECD99个国家的宏观实证

经济合作与发展组织（OECD）中9个国家的投入产出表样本数据分析显示，制造业中间投入出现服务化趋势，并且这种趋势在很大程度上是由于制造业对生产服务业依赖度的大幅上升所致，在资源与环境约束下进行工业化的中国，必须充分认识到这一趋势，重视服务业尤其是生产服务业的发展与利用，才能真正走上新型工业化之路。