ESTIMATING SOURCES OF FLUCTUATIONS IN THE AUSTRALIAN WOOL MARKET: AN APPLICATION OF VAR METHODS

Vector autoregression (VAR) methods are used to analyse the contribution of supply, demand and policy shocks to unpredictable fluctuations in the market for Australian wool. VAR procedures are compared with conventional structural econometric models as methods for decomposing sources of instability. While each has advantages and disadvantages, VAR procedures might be viewed as preferable when the underlying market structure is complex and uncertain, as it is in the case of wool. Based on the results obtained, demand shocks are the dominant source of uncertainty in the wool market in the absence of Australian Wool Corporation intervention, but intervention has blunted their effects, reducing market uncertainty and increasing the average level of prices and revenues.     

ON THE HIDDEN REVENUE EFFECTS OF WOOL PRICE STABILISATION IN AUSTRALIA: INITIAL RESULTS

A preliminary analysis of demand in eight major OECD wool-consuming countries is used to provide up-to-date estimates of price elasticities of demand for wool. Those elasticities are employed to calculate ex ante market prices, assuming no wool price stabilisation in Australia. The computed ex ante prices are used in a dynamic simulation to estimate demand and, hence, revenue from wool sales to the eight countries in the absence of reserve price operations in Australia. Based on the preferred semi-log demand curve, the variability of wool prices is estimated to have been reduced by 44 per cent, due to Australian intervention in the market up to 1977/78. However, price stabilisation is estimated to have lowered the revenue from Australian wool sales to the eight countries by S139m, or by 2 per cent, in the period up to 1977/78.     

COMBINATIONS OF BUFFER-STOCKS AND BUFFER-FUNDS FOR WOOL PRICE STABILISATION IN AUSTRALIA*

In this paper a preliminary analysis is presented of a combined buffer-fund and buffer-stock as an alternative to a pure buffer-fund or a pure buffer stock for stabilising wool prices. The alternatives analysed are designed so that each provides the same prices to producers as did the Reserve Price Scheme over the period of analysis. Least-cost combinations of policy instruments are derived. The results show that there is considerable potential for cost savings to be made by combining buffer-fund and buffer-stock instruments.     

WEAK SEPARABILITY AND A TEST FOR THE SPECIFICATION OF INCOME IN DEMAND MODELS WITH AN APPLICATION TO THE DEMAND FOR MEAT IN AUSTRALIA*

Most studies of the demand for meat in Australia have used some measure of total income or expenditure, but two recent studies have assumed weak separability of a meat group and used expenditure on the meat group instead. These specification differences are of interest to the extent that they affect the economic interpretation, goodness-of-fit, elasticity estimates, predictive performance or hypothesis tests in empirical demand equations. In this paper, non-nested hypothesis testing procedures are used to test the alternative specifications of the income variable and the hypothesis of separability. The results favour the use of the expenditure variable implied by separability but are mixed concerning whether separability holds.     

COORDINATING PRODUCTION AND DISPOSAL OF COMMODITY STOCKPILES WITH APPLICATION TO AUSTRALIA'S WOOL INDUSTRY

Following the dismantling of a price-support program, a central bureaucracy is left with a commodity stockpile to dispose. It happened with wheat and feed grains in the U.S. in 1986 and wool in Australia in 1991. It soon may happen in Europe with grains, manufactured dairy products and other commodities which have supported prices. Obvious policies include privatising the stockpile, disposing of the stockpile by a central bureaucracy and quarantining the stockpile from the market. Each policy imposes constraints on disposal based, perhaps, on judgments of political acceptability to producers and government. In this article, optimal rules for production and disposal are derived and solved and a new policy is proposed. Then the model is applied to the disposal of Australia's wool stockpile. Results show that centralised disposal will almost always be preferred to privatisation of the stockpile. Centralised disposal is also preferred to quarantining the stockpile if interest rates are high, but quarantining is preferred if interest rates are low. Centralised disposal and quarantining are not optimal, however. Optimal production and disposal combines the efficiency of privatisation with the market power of centralised disposal. To achieve this, the property rights to the stockpile can be redefined using payment-in-kind certificates and individual transferable entitlements. The payment-in-kind certificates assign ownership of the stockpile to individual producers who then make both production and disposal decisions. The individual transferable entitlements allow the industry to produce efficiently and extend market power from the central bureaucracy to producers. For the Australian wool stockpile, optimal production and disposal would benefit the industry by an estimated $2.7 billion.     

ESTIMATION OF A PRODUCTION FRONTIER MODEL: WITH APPLICATION TO THE PASTORAL ZONE OF EASTERN AUSTRALIA

This paper considers a statistical model for a production frontier that is consistent with the traditional (nonstochastic) definition of a production function given in microeconomic theory. Limiting cases of the model are the familiar average production function and an envelope production function. Maximum-likelihood estimators for the parameters of the model are defined. The three related models are applied in the estimation of a production frontier for the Pastoral Zone of Eastern Australia with use of data from the Australian Grazing Industry Survey.     

AN APPLICATION OF MARKOV CHAINS TO FARM TYPE STRUCTURAL DATA IN ENGLAND AND WALES

Markov Chain methods of projection are applied to farm type structural data derived from the returns in the Annual June Agricultural Census in England and Wales. Three sets of projections, using different assumptions, are made of the numbers of holdings by farm type in 1969 and of the movement of holdings between farm type during 1968/69. These are compared with the actual Census returns for 1969. Use of a four-year average transition probability matrix gives the best overall results on the basis of that comparison and this matirx was then used to project farm type structure in England and Wales for 1971 and 1973. These projections indicate that between June 1969 and June 1973 the number of all holdings with 275 or more standard man days (SMD) will decline; those classified as Mixed, Livestock, and Pigs and Poultry are likely to show the largest proportional declines. Some 50 per cent of holdings are likely to be below the 275 SMD limit. Since the assumptions made may not be fulfilled in every respect, it is unlikely that the outcome in 1971 and 1973 will be precisely as predicted, but the pattern and direction of the projections are likely to hold.     

MAPGIS在土地利用类型遥感动态监测中的应用

选用1994航片,1999年SPOT卫生作为信息源,用MAPGIS作为遥感数据处理的工具,对常熟市土地利用状况进行了动态监测,结果为5年耕地面积减少195hm^2,年均动态率-3.7%。随着地区经济的快速发展,土地利用变化显著,应用RS和GIS技术对其进行经常性的监测是很有必要的。     

SUBSTITUTION AND THE RELATIVE SCALE OF PROTECTION: AN APPLICATION TO LIVESTOCK PRODUCTS IN THE UNITED KINGDOM

This paper presents, first of all, estimates of the rate of effective protection for particular livestock production activities in the United Kingdom over the period 1966–79. These estimates are used to construct a Relative Scale of Protection. Secondly, the sensitivity of the calculated rates and the Relative Scale to the incorporation of non-zero substitution elasticities in the formula for effective protection is examined. The results suggest that the Relative Scale is comparatively unaffected by substitution. It may be concluded that the rate of effective protection remains a useful concept for the empirical analysis of agricultural protection.     

PRODUCTION RISK AND INPUT USE: PASTORAL ZONE OF EASTERN AUSTRALIA

Few attempts have been made to estimate production functions for the Australian grazing industries. The question of the nature of the effect of input levels on production risk has been broached even more rarely. Previous investigators had to employ models and methods of estimation which embody highly restrictive implicit assumptions about the nature of risk effects. A typical restrictive feature has been the implication that increasing input intensity leads to increasing risk. In this paper, a much less restrictive model and corresponding estimation techniques are brought to bear on individual farm data for 38 properties with 10 continuous years of production records. Perhaps not surprisingly, it is found that some inputs (especially those capital inputs which might normally be thought of as increasing the safety of production) tend to reduce risk.     

哈尔滨市耕地集约利用水平预测及障碍因子诊断

【目的】如何高效利用土地资源、提高耕地集约度是当前科学研究的主要问题,但如何科学预测耕地集约度则一直是研究难点。【方法】基于哈尔滨市耕地集约利用现状,运用熵权、变异系数组合赋权法、BP神经网络、障碍因子诊断法等揭示哈尔滨市耕地集约利用水平发展趋势及耕地集约利用影响因素,为耕地集约利用发展方向及提高耕地集约利用度提供理论依据。【结果】结果表明:(1)1985~2014年哈尔滨市耕地集约利用水平平均值为0.346 2,处于相对集约状态;2015~2024年哈尔滨市耕地集约利用水平呈稳定上升态势,耕地集约利用度均值为0.475,处于高度集约状态;1985~2024年耕地集约利用水平以相对平稳态势发展,且并未出现较大波动,40年间哈尔滨市耕地集约利用平均值达0.409 6,处于较集约状态。(2)从准则层指标障碍度来看,耕地产出效率和投入强度对耕地集约利用水平的影响较大,并且呈现不断上升的趋势,耕地产出效率和投入强度年均增长速率为8.69%、7.82%,耕地利用程度和耕地利用可持续性年均下降速率为4.86%、5.73%,耕地集约利用水平的主要障碍因子是灌溉指数、单位耕地面积农业从业人员、农业产值比、单位播种面积粮食产量等。【结论】运用BP神经网络对哈尔滨市耕地集约利用水平进行科学预测,用障碍因子诊断法诊断耕地集约利用障碍因子,能为研究哈尔滨市耕地集约利用发展趋势提供理论支撑。     

AN APPROACH TO THE ECONOMETRIC ESTIMATION OF ATTITUDES TO RISK IN AGRICULTURE: COMMENT

Bardsley and Harris (1987) test empirically the effects of changes In deterministic wealth and random income on the measure partial risk aversion. The paper, which is otherwise well written, failed to impose the relationship between the two effects and estimated them independently. Consequently, inconsistent estimates were derived for the elasticities of the measure of partial risk aversion with respect to wealth and to income. The purpose of this comment is to derive that relationship theoretically and to point out the resulting inconsistencies in the original paper.     

AN APPLICATION OF THE STAPLE THEORY TO SONORA, MEXICO*

The role of primary exports in the economic development of a country or region has been subject to much debate. The “staple theory” has been proposed as an explanation of the beneficial effect of primary exports on the economic development of Canada and the United States. However, one authority argues that the staple theory is applicable only to the special case of a new underpopulated country. This paper shows that primary exports have stimulated development in the state of Sonora, Mexico. Data showing the increase in primary production and exports between 1950 and 1960 are linked to the increase in manufacturing employment in industries producing inputs for primary production, industries processing primary products, and industries producing products to satisfy increases in final demand. The role of government policies, institutional arrangements, and the nature of the production functions for primary products are examined in an effort to determine the impact of primary exports on manufacturing activity. This study illustrates that the staple theory provides insight into the development or lack of development of all countries exporting primary products. L'IMPORTANCE DES EXPLOITATIONS DE BASE DANS LE DEVELOPPEMENT ECONOMQUE: ?APPLICATION DE LA “THEORIE DES DENREES PRINCIPALES” DANS ?ETAT DE SONORA AU MEXIQUE - Le rôle des exportations de base dans le développement économique ?un pays ou ?une région a fait le sujet de bien des débats, La “théorie des denrées principales” a été proposée comme une explication de ?effet avantageux des exportations de base sur le développement économique du Canada et des États-Unis. Toutefois, une autorité prétend que la théorie des denrées principales ne s'applique qu'au cas particulier ?un nouveau pays sous-peuplé. Le présent exposé démontre quelles exportations de baseont stimulilé développement de ?étal de Sonora au Mexique. Des données indiquant ?augmen tation de la production et des exportations de base entre 1950 et 1960 sont liées à?avance de ?emploi manufacturier dans les industries produisant des intrants pour la production de base, pour les industries qui préparent des produits de base et pour les industries qui produisent des marchandises pour satisfaire aux demandes accrues de produits finis. Le rôle des politique! gouvemementales, des accords institutionnels et la nature des fonctions de la production pour les produits de base sont examinés afin de déterminer ?effet des exportations de base sur ?activité manufacturière. Cette étude démontre que la théorie des denrées principales fournit un aperçu du développement ou du manque de développement des pays qui exponent des produits de base.     

纳米技术在渔业上的应用前景

本文结合渔业科技发展的实际对纳米、纳米技术和纳米材料进行扼要介绍,在此基础上对我国研发纳米技术促进渔业技术创新提出了三点政策建议。     

改进基层农发行信贷管理的几项政策建议

从2004年开始,国家全面放开粮食市场,财政补贴直补种粮农民,保护价收购政策将暂被搁置。在这种新的形势下,基层农发行支持国有粮食企业继续发挥粮食流通主渠道作用,搞好经营,需要修正和改进一些现行的信贷管理方式。 一、市场状态下现行信贷管理中的缺陷     

ECONOMETRIC MODELLING OF THE EUROPEAN COMMUNITY COMPOUND FEED SECTOR: AN APPLICATION TO FRANCE

This paper develops a model of the European Community compound feed sector capable of explaining demand for feed ingredients, and the output demand and prices for compound feeds. The adopted framework rests upon the use of duality theory to represent the optimising production decisions of compound feed firms. In addition, an appropriate methodology is suggested to capture the rapid expansion in the consumption of compound feeds in the European Community and their adoption by livestock producers. The model is then applied to the French compound-feed sector using annual time-series data stretching over the period 1962–1980.