BELIEFS AND VALUES IN AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS RESEARCH*

Attention is drawn to the values that are often kept hidden but condition what research agricultural economists do. It is pointed out that the economic theory, which guides most research, is not value free and that therefore the lack of debate about theory amongst Australian agricultural economists may be unhealthy. In a world with uncertainty, the research process is likened to learning, leading to a suggestion that Bayesian procedures provide a more satisfactory conceptual framework for the process of enquiry than does the conventional hypothesistesting approach. While difficulties in the practical applicability of Bayesian methods are understood, they do provide insights which permit some of the more inappropriate uses of hypothesis testing to be recognised. The view of research enquiry as learning also leads to an appreciation of the desirability of a more honest acceptance of the inherent subjectivity of the process. Finally, attention is drawn to the need for vigilance over professional standards in research.     

AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS IN THE DECADE AHEAD*

This paper critically examines the status and further contributions of the Agricultural Economics discipline. It focuses on how the discipline can develop further and contribute more effectively to overcoming some of the complex problems faced by society. Although the discipline is well developed and widely recognized, respected and supported, there are concerns about its members' abilities to adequately meet the demands and needs placed on them. It seems clear that there is a need for more agricultural economists, but it is also clear that primary emphasis must be placed on disciplinary excellence and adequacy. This prerequisite is basic to effective and relevant contributions of agricultural economists in leaching, research, public service, administration, and extension. It seems clear that many of the problems and issues agricultural economists are asked to help resolve will require a multidisciplinary approach, with many disciplines contributing their respective knowledge and skills. Facilitation of the co-ordination and integration of such collective effort may require the organization of appropriate new institutions. Society has a large investment in disciplines like ours and is demanding relevance and effectiveness and this is the challenge Cet article examine ?un point-de-vue critique ?état actuel et les contributions futures de la discipline de ?économie rurale. II se concentre sur le développe-ment de la discipline et comment elle peut aider plus efficacemenl a surmonler quelques problemes complexes qui confromenl la societé. Bien que la discipline soil bien developée, et bien quelle soil reconnue, respectée at appuyée par lous, on a exprimé des inquiétudes sur la capacityé de ses membres de répondre avec compétence aux exigences et aux besoins qu'ils rencontrent. Il semble clair qu'il existe un besoin pour plus ?economistes ruraux, mats il est clair égalemenl qu'on doit insister sur la qualité et la compétence dans la discipline. Cette condition préalable est essentielle pour produire des contributions efficaces et utiles de la part des économistes ruraux dans ?enseignement, les recherches, le service publique et ?administration. II semble clair que beaucoup des problemes et des questions que les économistes ruraux doivent aider a résoudre exigerant des méthodes inlerdiscip-linaires on plusieurs disciplines contriberont leurs connaissances et leur competence. Pour rendre plus facile la co-ordination et ?intégration de cet effort collectif il faudra peut-être le création de nouvelles institutions dans ce but. La societé a des placements importants dans les disciplines comme le nôire et demande pertinence et efftcacité. Voilà le déft     

UNCERTAINTY,IRREVERSIBILITY AND THE LOSS OF AGRICULTURAL LAND

In the past, evaluations of the transfer of agricultural land to other uses have generally failed to incorporate the issues of uncertainty and irreversibility into the analysis. This can lead to an overestimation of development values. The paper commences with a brief review of the approaches which have been adopted in the assessment of the loss of agricultural land. It is then demonstrated that uncertainty relating to the rate of change of agricultural values through time requires the adoption of a more conservative decision criterion in the evaluation of irreversible land use changes than would otherwise be applied. This is followed by a numerical example and sensitivity analysis. The paper concludes with a discussion of these results.     

TOWARD A FRAMEWORK FOR EVALUATING AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS RESEARCH*

Agricultural economists need to evaluate their own research priorities. The main difficulty in doing so is to value the types of information generated by economic research. Bayesian decision theory provides a framework for valuing information, and the results of selected studies using this methodology are collated. Most of the other determinants of research priorities can be encapsulated in a target return ratio measure. How such a framework might be used is illustrated by three 'hypotheticals'.