THE SHIFT OF COST CURVES AND AGRICULTURAL RESEARCH BENEFITS

In the estimation of agricultural research benefits, so far the only procedure taking into account the conditions under which new technology is introduced has been the semi-empirical Lindner-Jarrett construction. The present paper describes quantitatively the effect of various factors on the benefit estimate: original cost curve, technical parameters (yield increase and implementation cost), willingness to adopt new technology, and the market mechanism. Numerical results are given from which it is concluded that empirical constructions are unsatisfactory and that some overestimation of research benefits in previous analyses may well have occurred.     

TAXATION,COST OF CAPITAL AND INVESTMENT IN AUSTRALIAN AGRICULTURE*

The concept and measurement of the cost of capital is developed to include particularly the role of taxation in investment behaviour. The relative importance of factors influencing investment in plant and machinery is examined for five sectors which make up the broadacre industry of Australia. It is shown that residual funds are important in determining plant and machinery investment, but not through the normally hypothesised channels. It is not the increased liquidity from increased income which raises investment, but the fall in the cost of capital, which is associated with the marginal rate of tax.     

GRANTS AND TAX RELIEFS AS INVESTMENT INCENTIVES*

This paper presents and applies a methodology designed to measure the extent of the investment incentives provided to U.K. farmers by the present tax system and the capital grants currently available. We identify and examine two aspects of these incentives, viz. enhanced profitability and increased financial feasibility, and investigate their sensitivity to changes in the rate of inflation and the marginal tax rate.     

CONSTANT-QUALITY PRICE INDICES FOR AGRICULTURAL INPUTS: TRACTORS AND FERTILISERS REVISITED

This paper employs the hedonic regression technique to construct constant-quality price indices and quality change indices for two agricultural inputs - tractors and fertilisers - over the period since World War II in the UK. The technique is described and related to productivity measurement in order to show its relevance for measuring price changes for inputs subject to technological improvement. Problems of application are discussed with reference to the two inputs. The constant-quality price indices derived for tractors and fertilisers are briefly compared with available ‘official’ price series     

UNCERTAINTY,IRREVERSIBILITY AND THE LOSS OF AGRICULTURAL LAND

In the past, evaluations of the transfer of agricultural land to other uses have generally failed to incorporate the issues of uncertainty and irreversibility into the analysis. This can lead to an overestimation of development values. The paper commences with a brief review of the approaches which have been adopted in the assessment of the loss of agricultural land. It is then demonstrated that uncertainty relating to the rate of change of agricultural values through time requires the adoption of a more conservative decision criterion in the evaluation of irreversible land use changes than would otherwise be applied. This is followed by a numerical example and sensitivity analysis. The paper concludes with a discussion of these results.     

A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF AGRICULTURAL TRACTOR INVESTMENT MODELS

An implicit rental price approach is used to analyse the determinants of farm tractor investment at the aggregate level. Three models, based on different assumed factor substitutabilities, are compared. Variations in the rental price of tractors appear to have less effect on demand than variations in factors affecting the profitability of the cropping enterprise as a whole. The implications for forecasting and for policy instruments, such as the investment allowance, are discussed.     

A QUARTERLY MODEL OF AGRICULTURAL INVESTMENT IN AUSTRALIA*

The aims of this study were (a) to attempt to develop a quarterly model to explain aggregate farm investment in Australia, and (b) to examine the concept of the implicit rental price of capital services as a method of taking account of taxation concessions in an investment equation.     

INPUTS,OUTPUTS AND PRODUCTIVITY CHANGE IN THE AUSTRALIAN SHEEP INDUSTRY

Tornqvist quantity indexes of output and input are computed for the period 1952/53 to 1976/77 from Australian Sheep Industry Survey data. The computation includes estimating the annual service flow from durable inputs. Total productivity in the sheep industry is estimated to have increased by 2.9 per cent per annum during this 25-year period. While the ratio of capital employed per unit of labour has increased, materials, services and livestock have been the inputs for which the quantity used has increased most rapidly. On the output side, there has been a move towards greater diversification with both crop and cattle enterprises on 'sheep properties' increasing in relative importance.     

谈企业的对外投资风险及其规避

文章针对企业普遍存在的投资成功率低,投资效益低的问题,进行了投资失误原因分析,提出了规避投资风险的想法与措施.     

UNCERTAINTY,IRREVERSIBILITY AND THE LOSS OF AGRICULTURAL LAND: A RECONSIDERATION

A previous article has discussed how the irreversible transfer of land from agricultural to urban uses should be addressed (Hodge, 1984). If the future value of land in either use is uncertain, some additional value should be placed on a decision which keeps future options open by retaining land in agriculture. It is argued that Hodge's estimates of the value, known as quasi-option value, are unsatisfactory, and revised estimates are provided. More fundamentally, the usefulness of quasi-option value as an operational concept is queried. It is better to solve irreversible decision problems under uncertainty as stochastic dynamic programming problems.     

THE AGRICULTURAL POTENTIALS OF CANADA'S RESOURCES AND TECHNOLOGY*

Canada's agricultural potential during the 1980's will be constrained by the availability and prices of productive agricultural land, water, energy, labour, and technology. Resources for further expansion of agricultural production are becoming increasingly scarce. Past expansions were made possible largely by the substitution of cheap fossil energy for expensive labour. Further expansion will necessitate new technology that is both energy saving and labour saving. A multifaceted program involving government, farmers, and other components of the food system is needed to achieve Canada's agricultural potentials. Agricultural expansions in the 1990's will depend first upon the success of the programs designed for the 1980's and second upon new scientific knowledge and technological adaptations. Without a massive and well coordinated effort to meet the needs of agriculture, Canada could become a food deficit nation before the end of this century. Le potentiel de ?Agriculture du Canada durant les 1980's va être contraint par la disponibilité et le pri.x de la terre, ?eau, ?energie, le travail et la technologie productive. Les ressources pour ?avancement de la production agricoie deviennent de plus en plus rare. Les expansions du passé ont été possible par la substitution de ?énergie fossile pour le travail dispendieux. Un autre anvancement va nécessiter une nouvelle technologie qui sauvera ?energie et le travail. Un programme qui comprend le gouvernement les fermiers et touts les autres constituents du système alimentaire est nécessaire si le Canada va achever son potential agricoie. Les expansions agricoles des 1990's vont depéndre premièrement du succès des programmes developpés pour les 1980's et deuxièment de nouvelles connaissances scientifique et de nouvelles adaptations technologigues. Sans un effort massif et sans un grand effort coordonné dans le domaine de ?agriculture, le Canada peut devenir un pays qui manque de la nourriture avant la fin du siècle.     

THE COMBINATION OF AGRICULTURAL OUTPUT AND INPUT PRICE INDICES

Measures of agricultural incomes, and of the industry's productivity, are often derived by combining measures of the aggregate values and volumes of the industry's outputs and inputs. Combinations of price indices are less common but some have been published by Eurostat and are described in this paper. They are of two basic forms, one indicating the net effect of changes in output prices and input prices on the industry's value added and the other indicating changes in the industry's terms of trade. The paper examines the role, construction and interpretation of these measures and offers some cautions about their interpretation in the context of CAP reform.     

INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION: THE SERVICES OF THE COMMONWEALTH BUREAU OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS

The need for an information service in agricultural economics and rural sociology is apparent from the quantity of publications. The Bureau has evolved in response to progressive recognition of this need and from earlier attempts to meet it. An information service must provide for awareness of contents of current publications, and for retrieval of information from accumulated stores. The Bureau's journal, World Agricultural Economics and Rural Sociology Abstracts (WAERSA), is designed to provide these services mainly by citation of classified literature together with abstracts and author, subject and geographical indexes. Classification and subject indexing raise conceptual problems which are being handled by empirical methods. A work flow line is designed to deal smoothy with current world publications. Review articles provide complementary information. Editors and authors can facilitate the work of the Bureau by attention to form and substance of primary publications. The present situation is hardly appropriate for use of computer-based services except possibly for inter-disciplinary linkages. It is hoped that the Bureau will eventually operate in conjunction with a comprehensive international library, around which research, teaching, editorial and information services will interact.     

THE EVOLUTION OF INFORMATION SOURCES AND THE USE OF INFORMATION-TECHNOLOGY IN AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS

The paper reviews developments in bibliograhical, statistical and market information sources over the last 25 years, particularly since the application of the computer to information processing and dissemination. It concentrates on bibliographical sources: the evolution of WAERSA from a quarterly abstract journal to a monthly one, now also accessible on-line, as well as discussing some of the other major bibliographical sources, notably the AGECON file on USDA's AGRICOLA (formerly the Bibliography of Agricultural Economics), FAO's AGRINDEX, a title-only service available as a monthly journal and on-line, the Bibliography on Agricultural Marketing from FAO's marketing division, and the information service provided by ESCA. Different methods of ‘packaging’ information are also mentioned, including regular profiles on particular topics (SDI), ‘state-of-the-arts’ reviews, and ‘start’ reports. The paucity of adequate source guides specially tailored to the needs of agricultural economists is discussed. Finally, the availability of farming and market information through videotex is described. A plea is made for greater co-operation between providers and users of information, better knowledge of and guides to sources, and for user education.     

农业地球化学综合调查与农业可持续发展

地质科学向农业渗透,是地质与农业共同发展的结合点.文章分析了开展农业地球化学综合调查的意义和农业地球化学综合调查工作的现状.就如何开展农业地球化学综合调查,文章作者提出了自己的看法和建议.