Farmer Decision‐Making with Conflicting Goals: A Recursive Strategic Programming Analysis

This paper concerns the analysis of farmers' goal trade‐offs using a series of representative dairying and beef/sheep farm models. The models employ an adaptive feedback structure and expectations model to track adjustment processes over a seven‐year planning horizon, 1991/92 to 1997/98. Model solutions, under a conventional profit maximising objective function, and using a weighted goal programming formulation, under a series of empirically specified alternative goal orientations, are examined and compared. The paper identifies significant variation among farm families in terms of ability to attain key goals concerning farm profitability, family consumption, farm investment, growth and cash flow. The results quantify the trade‐off between family consumption and farm investment/growth goals.     

The impact of perception and other factors on the adoption of agricultural technology in the Moret and Jiru Woreda (district) of Ethiopia

The objectives of this study arc to examine both the significance of the impact of farmers' perceptions regarding new technology for the adoption decision and how perceptions themselves are influenced by the decision to adopt new technology. The study is based on data from 96 wheat farms in the Moret and Jiru woreda (district) of Ethiopia. The probit approach is used to analyse the adoption decision, while the variables relevant to farmers' perceptions are modelled using the ordered probit methodology. A simultaneous equations model combining the probit and ordered probit approaches provides a useful approach to modelling the two-way relationship between perception and adoption. Variables such as farm size, farm income and soil type have a key role to play in the model. Perception is measured by eight different components and as there is a strong collinearity among these various measures, a principal components analysis is attempted to draw the best possible linear combination of variables.     

湖北省新型城镇化条件下农民收入增长研究

我国农民收入来源主要包括农业经营性收入、务工收入及其他收入。城镇化发展是农民增收的重要动力之一,十八大以来新型城镇化被提到一个新高度。新型城镇化要求把生态文明理念融入城镇化过程,实现集约、智能、绿色、低碳的发展目标。新型城镇化条件下,农民增收能否持续、高速的发展成为新的课题。文章对湖北省部分市(县)采取实地查勘、问卷调查与走访农户、搜集资料、逻辑分析的方法就湖北省新型城镇化条件下农民增收进行研究。研究结果表明:(1)新型城镇化促进农业现代化发展,提高农产品产值,减少农业产业链内耗,实现农民增收;(2)新型城镇构建农民市民化社会构架,提高了农民工资收入与社会福利收入,增加了农民收入;(3)新型城镇化改变发展模式,增加农民资产性收入与提升了农民生活品质,实现更高水平的增收。研究结论:新型城镇化是未来农民增收最主要的推动力。     

Community‐supported agriculture in the United States: Social,ecological, and economic benefits to farming

In the United States, there is a tremendous amount of interest in community‐supported agriculture (CSA) among farmers, consumers, activists, and policymakers. Despite the attention garnered by CSA and the resurgence of local agriculture, relatively few studies have examined the livelihood opportunities for farmers within local agriculture. This paper evaluates the livelihoods of CSA farmers from the farmers' perspective in the Connecticut River Valley of Massachusetts. Results indicate that although CSA farmers earn more farm income than other farms across the United States on average, they still earn far below the median national income and generally fail to earn a living wage. Despite these findings, CSA farmers stressed the importance of the broader social, ecological, and economic benefits to farming. Although these non‐market benefits are a significant source of well‐being from the CSA farmers' perspective, CSA has largely failed to provide adequate livelihoods for farmers to date.     

农户兼业化程度对农业保险偏好的影响机理与实证分析

目的 随着农业结构调整深入推进,农户的收入来源逐渐多元化,文章通过研究农户兼业化程度对不同类型农业保险偏好的影响,为针对性推广农业保险提供依据和参考。方法 以湖北、湖南、河南3省粮食主产区的732份农户调查数据为基础,运用Logit模型和多元Logit模型分析农户兼业化程度对保险种类偏好的影响,讨论种植规模在务农收入占比和保险种类选择之间的调节效应,以是否有固定非农工作将农户分为不同类型的兼业农户进行异质性分析。结果 （1）务农收入占比高的农户偏好传统的物化成本保险,务农收入占比低的农户更喜欢新型指数保险。（2）兼业化程度相同的情况下,大规模农户比小规模农户更愿意保成本、保产量。（3）不同类型的兼业农户保险偏好存在差异,有固定非农工作的兼业农户比没有固定工作的兼业农户更愿意选择新型指数保险。结论 有必要在务农收入占比高、种植规模大、没有固定非农收入的农户中推广传统的物化成本保险;在务农收入占比低、种植规模小、有固定非农收入的农户中推广新型指数保险。     

Contract farming,contract design and smallholder livelihoods*

Contract farming has gained in importance in many developing countries. Previous studies analysed effects of contracts on smallholder farmers’ welfare, yet mostly without considering that different types of contractual relationships exist. Here, we examine associations between contract farming and farm household income in the oil palm sector of Ghana, explicitly differentiating between two types of contracts, namely simple marketing contracts and more comprehensive resource-providing contracts. Moreover, we look at different income sources to better understand how both contracts are linked to farmers’ livelihood strategies. We use cross-sectional survey data and regression models. Issues of endogeneity are addressed through measuring farmers' willingness-to-participate in contracts and using this indicator as an additional covariate. Farmers with both types of contracts have significantly higher household incomes than farmers without a contract, yet with notable differences in terms of the income sources. Farmers with a marketing contract allocate more household labour to off-farm activities and thus have higher off-farm income. In contrast, farmers with a resource-providing contract have larger oil palm plantations and thus higher farm incomes. The findings suggest that the two contract types are associated with different livelihood strategies and that disaggregated analysis of different income sources is important to better understand possible underlying mechanisms.     

INFORMATION ON FARMERS‘ INCOMES: DATA FROM INLAND REVENUE SOURCES

The most commonly quoted information on UK farm incomes comes from the Farm Management Survey. However, this Survey does not embrace the income farmers receive from non-farm sources, and its coverage of very small farms is not good. For many income studies, an attractive alternative source of information, newly available, is the agricultural and horticultural subsets of the Survey of Personal Incomes, conducted annually by the Inland Revenue. This paper comments on the SPI results for 1978/79. While there are reservations about the classification employed and the income concept adopted, the SPI is nevertheless an important new source of data, covering income received by farming couples and individuals from self-employment, from employment and from investment. Overall, earned income constituted 83 per cent of the Total Income of farmers in 1978/79; business profits (including those of wives) formed less than two-thirds of the total, illustrating the importance of including non-farm sources in any assessment of farmers' income position. When classified by income size, agricultural incomes are seen to figure disproportionately high among the upper income groups of the community. The earnings of farmers' wives are discussed and the SPI income-distribution compared with that from the FMS. Ways of exploiting this newly-available data source are explored.     

黄土高原苹果优生区农户生计分化机制研究——基于不同地形分区的对比分析

[目的]以黄土高原苹果优生区长武县为例,从生计资本与生计策略两方面揭示各地形区农户生计分化状态,识别农户生计分化的影响因素,探究研究区农户生计分化机制。[方法]文章基于可持续生计理论,构建农户生计资本评价指标体系,分析各地形区农户生计资本现状,并通过Logistic回归模型识别农户生计分化的影响因素。[结果]（1）随着产业与种植结构的变化,务工主导型、苹果种植型以及兼业综合型生计策略逐步从传统农业型生计策略中分离出来,生计非粮化与非农化趋势明显;（2）地形区间农户生计资本差异显著,整体呈现塬区>梁区>沟区,兼业综合型>务工主导型>苹果种植型>传统农业型的特征;（3）受地形条件影响,不同分区间相同生计策略的影响因素存在差异,相同因子对同一生计策略的影响程度与方向亦存在差异。[结论]研究区内农户生计分化是多种因素共同作用的结果,产业结构调整与气候变化等外部扰动是农户生计分化的前提与基础,生计资本是农户生计分化的内在属性与驱动因素,地形条件决定生计资本因子影响的方向成为研究区农户生计分化的关键因素。     

农户社会资本与宅基地退出意愿——基于抗险能力的中介效应分析

[目的]将社会资本理论引入农户宅基地退出意愿问题研究,探究社会资本及各构成维度对农户宅基地退出意愿的影响和作用机制,以期为提升农户意愿提供参考。[方法]基于苏北地区沛县和丰县的共411份农户调研数据,构建农户社会资本测度指标体系,并运用Logit模型、中介效应模型实证研究了社会资本对农户宅基地退出意愿的影响及抗险能力的中介效应。[结果]（1）社会资本对农户的宅基地退出意愿具有显著的正向影响,社会资本越丰富的农户宅基地退出意愿越强;（2）各构成维度均显著影响农户宅基地退出意愿,且影响方向均为正,效用强度从大到小依次为社会规范（0.116）、社会网络（0.065）、社会参与（0.064）、社会信任（0.032）、社会声望（0.031）;(3)抗险能力在社会资本和各维度对农户宅基地退出意愿的影响过程中均具有中介效应,社会资本和各维度不仅可以直接影响农户的宅基地退出意愿,还可以通过抗险能力产生间接影响,但影响以直接效应为主。[结论]社会资本和抗险能力是影响农户宅基地退出意愿的重要因素,政府部门在宅基地退出工作推进中,应立足农户的社会属性,加大农户社会资本培育力度,完善风险分担机制,提高农户收入...     

社会信任、感知价值对农户秸秆还田技术采纳意愿的影响——基于鄂豫两省样本农户的实证

目的 研究揭示社会信任、感知价值对农户秸秆还田技术采纳意愿的影响机制和效应。方法 文章基于社会嵌入理论和感知价值理论,以秸秆还田为例,利用湖北、河南1 776份农户调查数据,采用结构方程模型（SEM）实证分析社会信任、感知价值对农户秸秆还田技术采纳意愿的影响,并探讨不同分化水平下农户采纳意愿的差异性。结果 （1）社会信任、感知利益对农户采纳意愿具有显著正向影响,而感知风险具有显著负向影响;（2）社会信任主要通过感知利益间接作用于农户秸秆还田技术采纳意愿,感知风险的中介作用不显著,其中介效应分为别为0.165和0.001;（3）从多群组分析结果来看,低水平分化和高垂直分化农户的社会信任对其秸秆还田技术采纳意愿的影响更强烈。结论 政府应构建农户高度信任的外部环境,提高农户多维度价值感知,针对不同分化水平的农户制定差异化宣传策略,以切实增强农户采纳秸秆还田技术的积极意愿,实现秸秆综合利用与生态保护的双重目标。     

THE FARM AS A FAMILY BUSINESS: A REVIEW

Although the great majority of UK farms are run as family businesses, the family dimension of these businesses is frequently neglected. There are nevertheless important inferences to be drawn from studying the farm family, its forms and functions, and the way that the family and the business interact. This calls for a multidisciplinary approach and the review attempts to draw together insights from industrial economics, social anthropology, history and rural sociology as they apply to the farm family business. It then relates these insights to considerations of the family development cycle, processes of inheritance and succession, roles of farmers' wives and multiple-job farming families. The literature review points to opposing tendencies within the population of farm businesses. Family forms of organisation and relationships may have become less relevant to farming at the lower end of the size scale but more relevant to the conduct of a successful large farm business.     

收入质量与农户宅基地退出意愿：一个“U”型关系——基于宁夏回族自治区的调研数据

目的 探究收入质量对农户宅基地退出意愿的影响,希望能找到二者的关系,并发现提高农户宅基地退出意愿的着力点,适度推动宅基地退出,从而达到土地节约集约利用的目的。方法 文章首先将农户的收入质量分为收入充足性、稳定性、结构性、成本性和知识性5个维度。其次,运用熵值法对收入质量各项指标进行赋权。再次,计算收入质量各个分维度的数值大小,进而通过求和得到每个农户的收入质量数值。最后,采用二元Logistic模型,实证研究了收入质量对农户宅基地退出意愿的影响。结果 （1）在经济发展较为落后的地区,农户宅基地退出意愿会随着收入质量的增长先下降后上升。（2）随着收入质量的增长,小规模农户宅基地退出意愿先于大规模农户迎来拐点。结论 收入质量与农户宅基地退出意愿两者之间是“Ｕ”型曲线关系,且收入质量对农户宅基地退出意愿的影响具有异质性。建议拓宽农户收入渠道,给予农户工作技能培训机会,持续推动农户增收,切实提升农户的收入质量,促进有意愿且有条件的人自愿、有偿退出宅基地。     

Farmers' participation in the Income Stabilisation Tool: Evidence from the apple sector in Italy

The Income Stabilisation Tool (IST), which was recently added to the European Common Agricultural Policy's risk management toolkit, is a mutual fund that aims at stabilising farmers' income. We investigate the drivers of farmers' participation in an IST for the apple sector in the Autonomous Province of Trento in Italy, which is the only region that has operationalised the IST in the European Union. Our analysis is based on a theoretical framework based on the Unified Theory of Use and Acceptance of Technology. Using a three-year panel dataset of 3268 farm households, we estimated a logit model with the Mundlak–Chamberlain procedure. Our results show that higher crop production specialisation, associated with greater risk exposure, favours participation in the IST. Similarly, previous experience with mutual funds increases the acceptance of the IST. The analysis also provides evidence of how the new tool interacts with existing on-farm protection strategies, leading to a discussion of the presence of adverse and advantageous selection effects. Our paper sheds light on farmers' acceptance of newly implemented sector-specific ISTs and generates better knowledge and understanding of lock-ins and levers that influence participation in such schemes, which are relevant to other EU regions or member states that are considering the introduction of ISTs.     

农民合作社减贫、增收效应与异质性分析基于中国西部贫困地区农户调研数据

目的 在脱贫攻坚视域中,农民合作社作为产业扶贫的重要载体,为乡村经济和社会发展提供动力,是农村地区反贫困合意、有效的组织化形态,对农民合作社减贫问题进行研究,具有重要的理论价值和现实意义。方法 文章利用2018年云南、贵州、陕西和甘肃4省7县1 393户农户的微观调研数据,采用分位数回归和倾向得分匹配法对农户参加农民合作社的增收效应进行了实证检验。结果 农民合作社可以有效改善农户家庭收入水平,参加农民合作社可以使农户家庭总收入平均提高38.04%;农民合作社对中高收入水平农户、非贫困农户、低学历农户的增收促进作用更为明显;另外,户主受教育年限、是否建档立卡、土地面积、村里面是否有农民合作社、人情往来支出对数、政府补贴津贴对数、是否参加专业培训等7个因素均提高了农户参加农民合作社的意愿,而户主年龄、学生数量、是否有外出务工人员等3个因素会降低农户参加农民合作社的意愿。结论 据此,应继续培育和发展农民合作社,提升农户参与农民合作社的意愿,强化农民合作社与贫困农户的利益联结,注重扶贫资源对于贫困农户获得的便利性。     

“非粮化”还是“趋粮化”：农地经营规模对种植结构的影响

目的 农地种植结构与中国粮食安全直接相关,2021年中央农村工作会议指出保证粮食安全要实打实地调整种植结构,因此有必要对农户的种植结构调整决策进行深入研究。方法 文章基于2016年中国劳动力动态调查数据（CLDS）,运用OLS回归模型与多元有序Logistic模型,实证分析农地经营规模对种植结构的影响。结果 （1）农地经营规模与种植结构存在“U”型关系,拐点为2.533hm²。当农地经营规模小于拐点时,规模扩大会引起种植结构“非粮化”;当农地经营规模超过拐点后,规模扩大会引起种植结构“趋粮化”。（2）分粮食功能区考察,农地经营规模与种植结构的“U”型关系仍然存在,但在不同粮食功能区产生了不同的种植结构调整效应。（3）地权稳定性对农地经营规模与种植结构调整的“U”型曲线关系具有调节效应。结论 提出发展农机服务市场、协调各区域粮食生产责任、引导农户签订权责明确的土地流转契约、增加政策性种粮补贴、完善农田基础设施建设等建议。研究发现有助于理解农地经营规模与种植结构调整之间的内在机制,确保农户种植行为与国家粮食安全战略相契合。     

THE INFLUENCE OF RISK AVERSION ON THE UPTAKE OF SET-ASIDE: A MOTAD AND CRP APPROACH

This paper applies MOTAD and CRP models to the farm set-aside decision and presents a framework for analysis which examines the influence of risk on the land-idling decision. The results suggest that set-aside payment at a rate of £180-£200 per hectare would be attractive only at relatively high levels of risk aversion on an East Anglian specialist cereal farm and with moderate risk aversion on a Northumberland mixed farm. However, at identical levels of risk aversion, the area set aside was greater on the East Anglian farm. A survey to ascertain farmers' risk: income weightings is suggested as a useful adjunct to this work.     

Climate-resilient practices and welfare impacts on rice-cultivating households in Vietnam: Does joint adoption of multiple practices matter?

Farmers have a long history of adjusting their production practices in response to changing production conditions. Using a multinomial endogenous treatment effects model that accounts for observable and unobservable heterogeneity, this study investigates the adoption and welfare impacts of climate-resilient practices on Vietnamese rice-cultivating households. We found evidence of clear and positive welfare impacts from the adoption of canal irrigation (CI) and the joint adoption of agricultural conservation practices (CP) and CI as the main adaptation strategies to increase water stress. More importantly, although farmers with access to CI systems obtained the highest returns, the joint adoption of multiple practices still had substantially high adoption rates and significantly positive effects on rice yield, rice revenue and household income. Our findings indicate that farms' and farmers' characteristics, market information and climatic conditions are generally the main factors driving rice farmers' decisions to adopt climate-resilient technologies, both individually and jointly. Follow-up policy interventions should focus on improving CI systems and promoting the joint adoption of climate-resilient technologies to improve rice farmers' well-being and enhance their resilience capacity to cope with incoming climatic uncertainty.     

Intervention bias in agricultural policy

This paper re-examines the motivation for government intervention in agriculture to support farm prices and incomes. A model is outlined in which the government has a preference for higher farm incomes but fails to provide farmers with the socially optimal level of price support, even when one accepts the government's income redistribution goals as a valid reflection of social preference. It is shown that agricultural policy has an intervention bias: government price supports generally are higher than would be socially optimal. The source of the intervention bias is a time inconsistency in optimal agricultural policy formation, caused by the government's inability to precommit to a rule for setting future price support levels. Simulation results indicate that in some circumstances the intervention bias in agricultural policy can be substantial.     

目标价格改革对新疆棉农收入的影响机理及实证研究——基于南疆四地州370个样本农户的实地调查

[目的]通过探讨目标价格改革对棉农收入的影响机理,揭示影响南疆四地州棉农增收的主要因素。[方法]从棉农角度出发,基于南疆四地州370个样本农户的实地调研数据,结合当地特有的自然地理、农业生产、社会经济条件以及目标价格政策实施状况,理论分析目标价格补贴对棉农增收的作用机理,并运用多元线形回归模型实证分析目标价格补贴政策等对棉农收入的作用方向和影响程度。[结果]户主受教育程度、是否外出务工、社会关系、棉花种植面积、县域经济发展水平和棉花销售价格等对棉农人均收入均存在显著影响。[结论]基于此,要避免将补贴化为主要的收入保障措施,继续加快土地流转,扩大棉农财产性收入来源,加快新型职业农民培育,发展农民职业教育,加快县域经济发展,多管齐下,破解制约南疆民族地区棉农增收难题。     

新疆新型农业经营主体空间分异测度与分析

[目的]新型农业经营主体,是新型农业经营体系的重要组成部分。对新疆主要新型农业经营主体,即农民专业合作社、农业产业化龙头企业和家庭农场发展的现状、空间分异规律进行系统分析,对推动新疆农业经营主体健康发展、制定扶持政策和缩小地区间差异具有重要指导意义。[方法]该研究采用泰勒指数法,以各地区农业人口数作为权数,分别运用各类新型农业经营主体的数量、平均经营收入两项指标从不同角度测度新疆经营主体空间分异现象。[结果](1)地带内部差异仍是构成规模总体差异的主要部分,且地带内部差异占总体差异的比重家庭农场最大(89%),龙头企业次之(70%),农民专业合作社最小(66%)。(2)2006年以来新疆农民专业合作社、龙头企业在南、北、东疆区域间的发展趋于平衡,但各区域内部发展不均衡的问题凸现出来。(3)新疆家庭农场平均经营能力地区间差异大于农民专业合作社的,且两类经营主体经营能力的空间分异明显大于规模的。(4)农业产业化龙头企业的经营能力最强,农民专业合作社居中,家庭农场最弱。各区域同类经营主体经营能力差距也很显著。南、北疆农民专业合作社经营能力较强,而东疆的家庭农场经营能力较强。[结论]目前新疆新型农业经营主体空间分布差异较大,各级政府必须加快推进各区域均衡发展。