A MULTIPERIOD MEAN-VARIANCE MODEL OF OPTIMAL CAPITAL STRUCTURE

The continuing interest in the capital structure issue among financial researchers is evidenced by the stream of capital structure models that have appeared in the literature. Much of this research has used a risk-neutral and/or a single-period framework. In this paper, we develop a capital structure model for multiperiod firms and allow for the firm's cash flows to grow over time, for the firm to issue new debt, and for two types of bankruptcy costs to occur. The types of bankruptcy costs that occur are determined by the firm's uncertain operating cash flows and negotiations between the firm and creditors. Risk is priced via the Sharpe-Lintner capital asset pricing model. Multiperiod risk-priced models, we argue, realistically represent actual firms and are thus an important step toward the development of more testable and usable models of capital structure. We execute a demonstration example in which the value of the levered firm achieves a maximum and discuss the steps the firm would take to maximize shareholder wealth within this example. The example illustrates that the value of the firm passes through an interior optimum as the promised debt payment is increased. A simulation of the effect of changes in firm-specific parameters shows that the model exhibits expected and appealing relationships between these parameters and the value of the levered firm.     

ESTIMATION AND SELECTION BIAS IN MEAN-VARIANCE PORTFOLIO SELECTION

Much research has focused on the problem of selecting portfolios without the benefit of parametric measures of risk and return. In this paper, a Monte Carlo technique is used to isolate the extent and nature of the problems introduced by this practice. The technique is employed in the context of classical statistical methodology without permitting short sales. It is shown that using estimators of expected return and risk not only obscures parametric values, but also affects portfolio composition in the Markowitz framework. In this study, these two components of bias are isolated and measured.     

AN INVESTIGATION OF ALTERNATIVE ESTIMATORS OF EXPECTED RETURNS IN MEAN-VARIANCE ANALYSIS

In this paper I examine the out-of-sample performance of five mean-variance strategies using different models of expected returns within a U.K. industry asset-allocation framework between January 1970 and December 1991. The performance of the five strategies is evaluated with different measures. I find superior performance for the strategy that uses conditioning information to estimate expected returns. This consistently outperforms the two passive benchmarks and earns positive abnormal returns over the sample period regardless of how frequently the portfolio is revised and whether portfolio restrictions are imposed.     

ACCRUALS ACCOUNTING IN U.K. LOCAL GOVERNMENT: A HISTORICAL CONTEXT FOR CONTINUING CONTROVERSIES

Local authorities only adopt the accruals concept in a very narrow sense. Their financial accounting model can be called 'modified accruals', though it remains fundamentally different from best commercial practice. This paper explores the rationale for this unique model, using historical analysis. Because it has been used since before the First World War, and because the first decade of this century saw the only major public debate on local government accounting, the paper concentrates on this period. It was found that the essence of modified accruals is in the political nature of local government and control of it by central government.     

在利率市场化条件下构建商业银行的利率风险防范机制

利率风险是由于利率随市场规律波动而引起银行收益的变动。按照风险形成的原因 ,利率风险可以划分为缺口风险、基差风险、期权风险和贴水风险。利率市场化是我国金融管理体制的重大改革 ,它将推动商业银行加强集约化经营 ,加强成本核算 ,补充资本金 ,提高抗御风险的能力 ,为业务创新提供条件和动力。建立我国商业银行的利率风险防范机制要参照《巴塞尔协议》的有关原则 ,借鉴国际商业银行的成功经验 ,建立先进的利率信息系统、高效的利率管理机制和科学的利率风险管理模式 ,并要加快商业银行改革 ;管理利率风险的根本途径是发展金融工程 ,为此 ,商业银行应及早制订金融工程发展战略。