东亚经济赶超过程中金融体系转型的理论阐释

本文以韩国为例,分析东亚经济赶超过程中金融体系的转型.文中运用一个经济模型解释经济赶超过程中韩国集中化银行体系的软预算约束与经济快速增长这一看起来似乎相互矛盾的情况,认为在信息技术革命迅速发展和外部经济环境深刻变化的条件下,集中化的金融体系已不再适应经济的发展,迫切需要向分散化的市场方向转变.     

中国城镇居民金融素养的性别差异——典型事实与影响因素

使用中国家庭追踪调查数据,对中国城镇居民金融素养性别差异的影响因素进行了理论分析和实证检验,并使用Blinder-Oaxaca分解方法将性别差异分解为禀赋效应、参数效应和交互效应。研究发现:中国城镇居民金融素养存在显著的性别差异,性别差异主要源于男性和女性在家庭收入和资产水平、受教育程度、认知能力和风险感知上的要素禀赋差异。相关政策既可以通过区别对待这些因素源头上的性别差异,也可以通过阻断这些因素影响金融素养的路径,来缓解金融素养的性别差异。通过金融教育项目改善女性在这些要素禀赋上的弱势,是缓解金融素养性别差异和改善女性长期金融福利的重要选择。     

Transition economies in the Middle East: the Syrian experience

There have been no in-depth studies of the post-socialist transition in the Middle East. Syria’s experience is a useful one to explore given its historically important role in the region and its distinctive characteristics. The Syrian economic transition, from the early 1990s to 2011, was in two phases: an incremental liberalisation phase and a transition to a social market economy phase. During both phases, Syrian policymakers showed a preference for a gradualist approach to economic transition, rather than a big-bang approach. This was facilitated by oil revenues and subsidies from the Gulf States. The Syrian experience therefore has its own distinct characteristics, as well as elements in common with the transitions in other post-socialist economies.     

Industrial Policy and the East German Productivity Puzzle

Catching-up of East German productivity to West German levels has completely faded out since the mid-1990s. The remaining productivity gap cannot be attributed to an inferior capital endowment or qualification deficiencies of the East German labor force. Instead, it appears to be the result of an inappropriate design of industrial policy which concentrated on the subsidization of physical capital and largely ignored the advance of human capital- and service-intensive industrial structures. East Germany will have to face another wave of painful structural adjustment when capital-intensive industries are no longer protected from competition by public subsidies.     

No Credit for Transition: European Institutions and German Unemployment

The Stability and Growth Pact, adopted by members of the European Union,imposes tight limits on government deficits. But since the collapse of Communism,Europe has been faced with the problems of economies in transition: and reunifiedGermany—the leading economy of the EU—combines a prosperous western stateand an eastern economy in the process of transition. In a model where unions play akey role in wage bargaining and transition imposes a substantial burden on thenational budget, we analyze the implications of balancing the budget for the path ofunemployment. Where high but temporary costs are financed by raising taxes onemployment to satisfy the Stability and Growth Pact, then the title is a misnomer:relative to a policy of `tax smoothing', the pact increases unemployment and slowsgrowth. In designing fiscal rules for Europe, the benefits of tax smoothing must beweighed in the balance along with the virtues of fiscal discipline.     

Foreign investors' activities in the context of East German privatisation: Motivations and strategies

4. Conclusions Privatisation in East Germany has not been a closed-shop event but has successfully set the stage for international integration of the East German economy. The degree of foreign participation, though fairly modest in the beginning, has risen considerably over the course of time. Foreign investors, who have proved to be sensitive both to market signals and to policy created incentives, will contribute a good deal to restructuring and modernising the East German economy. However, the importance of foreigners' participation has to be assessed in qualitative terms. Its main merit in privatisation has been to strengthen competition. In many cases, bidding among potential investors became more competitive when the Treuhand Agency succeeded in inviting foreigners to participate. However, investors' competition has been low in cases where maintaining old production sites was politically pre-determined. Political decisions to maintain production were motivated mainly by the need to secure employment. This policy has had a high cost which it has not been possible to shift to foreign investors — or to Germans — but which has had to be covered by the Treuhand Agency and other public bodies.     

Stress test for reforms: Transition and East Asian 'contagion'

Contagion from East Asia imposed a severe 'stress test' on the market-orientedreforms of transition economies. We find that the portfolio reallocations of investors differentiated sharply among these economies at the height of the East Asian turmoil, appearing clearly in the relative movements in interest rates and share prices. Those countries that appeared more vulnerable to contagion had large public or private sector imbalances and low reserve cover of short-term debt. The analysis, however, goes beyond macroeconomic and financial imbalances to link these weak fundamentals to inadequate structural and institutional reforms. We find that flaws in public finances together with weak enterprises and financial institutions were key underlying factors in the vulnerability to East Asian contagion. They were also key causes of the Russian crisis, which initiated a new round of contagion driven primarily by high exposures to Russian trade.     

Catching-up of East German Labour Productivity in the 1990s

We provide empirical evidence for exogenous and endogenous catching-up of East German labour productivity to West German levels. We argue that labour productivity in East Germany has caught up faster than has happened elsewhere. The sudden formation of the German Monetary Union was followed by large transfers to East Germany, migration of workers to West Germany, reorganization and privatization of East German firms. This has quickly led to a partial closing of the organizational, idea and object gaps that existed between East and West Germany. This paper analyses labour productivity in East and West Germany using both aggregate German data and unbalanced panel analysis of developments in East and West Germany. Factors affecting the organization of production, and especially privatization and 'foreign' firms, are found to be particularly important in this context.     

Dynamic adjustment and long-run equilibria: Panel data estimates for the East German states

The economic development in East Germany after unification shows both, success and failure. In the early nineties wages and productivity increased fast; later on catching up faded out. A central question from a policy viewpoint is whether this fading out indicates a reduction of the adjustment speed or an equilibrium gap. This points towards a stationarity analysis of differences between East and West Germany. Our paper presents panel data estimates for the East German states for wages, productivity, competitiveness and unemployment. The results reveal that the adjustment was fast, but the equilibrium gaps are large.     

Regional Disparities in Transition Economies: A Typology for East Germany and Poland

This article uses cluster analysis to construct a typology of regions for East Germany and Poland on the basis of indicators for economic capability and their determinants. The results show that, in both countries, the most capable regions are those with or in the vicinity of the largest agglomerations. Besides high income, low unemployment and population gains from migration, these regions have comparatively large stocks of qualified labour and participate in technical progress. Two regional types in particular could be established as problematic: (1) rural regions peripheral to the agglomerations and (2) old industrialised regions. Indicators of investment are not very well suited to indicating the future economic capability of regions under the circumstances of transformation.     

International Production and Distribution Networks in East Asia: Eighteen Facts,Mechanics, and Policy Implications*

International production/distribution networks in East Asia developed in the 1990s and after have distinctive features in their significance, extensiveness, and sophistication. This paper first lists “18 facts” on production/distribution networks in East Asia that have been identified by a number of studies using international trade data, microdata of Japanese multinational enterprises, and casual observations. It then presents a concept of two-dimensional fragmentation as a starting point of theoretically formalizing the phenomena of fragmentation and agglomeration. It finally discusses the policy environment in which the formation of production/distribution networks has been accelerated and policy implications of the existence of such networks for economic integration in East Asia.     

Wages and profits: A comment

Clark's (1979) model for the levels of aggregate wages and profits is respecified and reestimated using modern econometric techniques. One result is a more efficient estimate of the capital-labor substitution elasticity. In addition, the presence of very strong positive autocorrelation in one of the equations sheds doubt on Clark's assertion that a model for the levels of these variables is more appropriate than a model for their year-to-year changes.     

Wages and prices in the UK

This paper investigates the relationship between wages and prices in the UK using a VECM formulation and generalized impulse response functions and persistence profiles. Because of significant feedbacks, it finds that fluctuations in wage growth cannot be used directly to predict fluctuations in inflation.     

Minimum Wages and Employment: Reply

The results of my study (Leigh 2003, 2004) on the effect of minimum wages on employment have been brought into question by Watson (2004), which raises some potential methodological concerns. Careful reanalysis of the Western Australian minimum wage experiment demonstrates that this critique is not well founded. Further checks show that the results are robust to a number of alternative specifications, in addition to those presented in the original article.     

Private and Government Employment in the OECD: Productivities and Wages

This paper estimates the productivity of private and government employment for a panel of 23 OECD economies over the 1961–1992 period, and investigates their relation to the government/private wage ratio. The paper finds that (i) the elasticities of output with respect to private and government employment are statistically significantly different from each other; (ii) the marginal products of private and government employment are not statistically significantly different, which suggests that government employment is neither over- nor under-provided, and that shifting employment from one sector to the other is not likely to produce substantial output gains; and (iii) in most of the countries examined, government workers are overpaid in the sense that the government/private wage ratio exceeds the corresponding ratio of marginal products.
(J.E.L. E24, E62).     

Minimum Wages and Employment: Comment

Does increasing the minimum wage lead to employment losses? For many years most economists thought that the answer to this was a straightforward ‘yes’. However, research during the 1990s began to overturn this conventional wisdom and showed that increases in the minimum wage did not automatically lead to employment losses. A recent Australian study, by Leigh (2003), examined the impact of statutory minimum wages in Western Australia and reached conclusions which supported the conventional view. However, close scrutiny of Leigh's article shows that it is fundamentally flawed. Despite Leigh's efforts, it remains the case that we simply do not know a great deal about the employment impact of Australia's system of minimum wages.     

Expected job loss in East Germany shortly before German unification

We investigate expectations concerning future job loss in the former German Democratic Republic (East Germany) shortly before the economic, monetary and social union in July 1990. In order to model these expectations, we take detailed account of individual heterogeneity, the availability and interpretation of information, and the economic and social environment of the individual. Our data base is the Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP) East. We find that, with some exceptions, East Germans hold expectations comparable to those held by indivduals having experienced a market economy, which is surprising given the lack of such an economy in the previous German Democratic Republic.Since these expectations are only observed ordinally, an adequate estimation method is the ordinal logit model. The corresponding stochastic assumptions are tested extensively using pseudo-Lagrange multiplier tests against omitted variables, non-linearity, asymmetry of distribution and heterosedasticity. Furthermore, we apply Hausman tests to check the validity of the classification of the endogenous variable.