Before an Analyst Becomes an Analyst: Does Industry Experience Matter?

Using hand‐collected biographical information on financial analysts from 1983 to 2011, we find that analysts making forecasts on firms in industries related to their preanalyst experience have better forecast accuracy, evoke stronger market reactions to earning revisions, and are more likely to be named Institutional Investor all‐stars. Plausibly exogenous losses of analysts with related industry experience have real financial market implications—changes in firms’ information asymmetry and price reactions are significantly larger than those of other analysts. Overall, industry expertise acquired from preanalyst work experience is valuable to analysts, consistent with the emphasis placed on their industry knowledge by institutional investors.     

Changing Perceptions of the Role of the Company Auditor, 1840–1940

One advantage of studying history is to explain present practice or at least to help place current phenomena in perspective. This paper seeks to explore two related themes which have proved problematic from the earliest times of company auditing in the UK: the nature of the auditor's responsibility; and the public's perception of his role. The conventional view is that auditors were initially concerned mainly with fraud detection, and that it was not until the 1930s that greater emphasis was devoted to the verification of financial statements. This study suggests that statement verification was the primary audit concern in relation to public companies as early as the 1830s, though we acknowledge that later in the century more emphasis was placed on fraud detection. We therefore see the current debate over the auditor's responsibility as merely the latest movement in a continuing and fluctuating theme. We also show that the profession has encountered great difficulty in reconciling public expectations with the practicalities of auditing. General confusion over the role of the auditor has existed to such an extent that it has been difficult even for the profession to reach agreement on the main purpose of company auditing, and the message to be sent to the investing public. In these endeavours, the accounting profession was at the same time both helped and hindered by legal developments.     

Does the Management's Forecast of Merger Synergies Explain the Premium Paid,the Method of Payment,and Merger Motives?

I study a sample of 336 mergers and acquisitions (M&A) deals to investigate the effect of managements’ estimate of synergy on the reservation price and the payment method. I find that synergy does not explain the premium paid implying that it may have been announced to induce shareholders to endorse the deal. Acquiring firms are more likely to overpay if they have low growth potential, while the target firm is large, has higher premerger operating performance, and high growth potential. Acquirers may be serving their own self‐interests as they are more likely to exceed their reservation price if they receive low compensation and if entrenchment provisions are in place. I also find that these acquisitions lead to postmerger shareholders’ wealth destruction, which is more pronounced when acquirers overpay. I document that the greater the synergy and the acquirer firm‐specific overvaluation, the higher the likelihood of settling the deal with more shares.     

Do Managers Always Know Better? The Relative Accuracy of Management and Analyst Forecasts

We examine the relative accuracy of management and analyst forecasts of annual EPS. We predict and find that analysts’ information advantage resides at the macroeconomic level. They provide more accurate earnings forecasts than management when a firm's fortunes move in concert with macroeconomic factors such as Gross Domestic Product and energy costs. In contrast, we predict and find that management's information advantage resides at the firm level. Their forecasts are more accurate than analysts’ when management's actions, which affect reported earnings, are difficult to anticipate by outsiders, such as when the firm's inventories are abnormally high or the firm has excess capacity or is experiencing a loss. Although analysts are commonly viewed as industry specialists, we fail to find evidence that analysts have an information advantage over managers at the industry level. The two have comparable abilities to forecast earnings for firms with revenues or earnings that are more synchronous with their industries.     

Tax structure,size of government,and the extension of the voting franchise in Western Europe, 1860–1938

We study the consequences of the extension of the voting franchise for the size of (central) government and for the tax structure in ten western European countries, 1860–1938. The main hypothesis under investigation is that the impact of the franchise extension on the tax structure is conditional on tax collection costs. We find that the share of direct taxes (including the personal income tax) is positively affected by the franchise extension, but only if relative tax collection costs are below a given threshold. We use literacy as a proxy for the cost of levying a broad-based income tax. We also show that the gradual relaxation of income and wealth restrictions on the right to vote contributed to growth in total government spending and taxation.      

An analysis of the research contributions of accounting,organizations and society, 1976–1984

This paper evaluates the research contributions of Accounting, Organizations and Society (AOS) during the years 1976–1984. We begin by investigating whether AOS has achieved its research objectives as defined by its “aims and scope”. We then examine two major attributes of AOS articles, the foundation disciplines they draw upon and the research methods they employ. Next we use citation analysis to determine the impact AOS's research has had upon research published in the social sciences. Finally, we identify those AOS articles which have exerted the greatest impact on the social sciences.     

Perceptions of climate change among members of the House of Peoples’ Representatives,Ethiopia

Climate change has become an issue which touches upon all spheres of life. To combat the problem, understanding the perceptions of all that have stake in it provides with stronger ground for decision-making. Ethiopia is one those countries that are or going to be severely affected by climate change, the solution of which partly depends on how its key decision-makers perceive the problem. In light of this a questionnaire survey was conducted on 195 volunteering members of the House of People’s Representatives in Ethiopia. The results of data analysis reveal that most identified rainfall variability, declining hydrology and increasing temperature as manifestations of climate change, and emission reduction and forest protection as its key solutions.     

Expansion of commercial banking powers … or,universal banking is the cart,not the horse

This short essay deals with universal banking in an environment in which a government safety net (for example deposit insurance) results in a moral hazard problem for banks. It argues that universal banking significantly exacerbates the problem. Specifically, universal banking extends the distortion of incentives caused by moral hazard to other sectors of the economy.     

Exports,foreign direct investment,and the costs of corporate taxation

This paper develops a model of a monopolistically competitive industry with extensive and intensive investment and shows how these margins respond to changes in average and marginal corporate tax rates. Intensive investment refers to the size of a firm’s capital stock. Extensive investment refers to the firm’s production location and reflects the trade-off between exports and foreign direct investment as alternative modes of foreign market access. The paper derives comparative static effects of the corporate tax and shows how the cost of public funds depends on the measures of effective marginal and average tax rates and on the elasticities of extensive and intensive investment. The paper was presented in 2006 at the German public finance meeting in Giessen; the Institute for Advanced Studies in Vienna; the ESF/CEPR Workshop on Outsourcing, Migration and the European Economy in Rome; the University of St. Gallen; the Graduate Institute for International Studies in Geneva, and in 2007 at the International Monetary Fund in Washington, DC, the CESifo Area Conference in Public Sector Economics in Munich and the 63rd IIPF Congress in Warwick. I appreciate stimulating comments by Michael Devereux and seminar participants and, in particular, by the discussants Andreas Haufler and Nadine Riedl, an anonymous referee and the editor Richard Cornes.     

Model uncertainty,recalibration, and the emergence of delta–vega hedging

We study option pricing and hedging with uncertainty about a Black–Scholes reference model which is dynamically recalibrated to the market price of a liquidly traded vanilla option. For dynamic trading in the underlying asset and this vanilla option, delta–vega hedging is asymptotically optimal in the limit for small uncertainty aversion. The corresponding indifference price corrections are determined by the disparity between the vegas, gammas, vannas and volgas of the non-traded and the liquidly traded options.     

The Accounts of the Consett Iron Company, 1864–1914

This paper presents an analysis of the accounts of the Consett Iron Company for the years 1864 to 1914. This particular company has been chosen for analysis because of its economic significance during that period, and because of the high level of disclosure of accounting policies provided in its reports. The paper describes the process leading to the preparation of a standard set of accounts, including profit and loss appropriation account, balance sheet, and flow of funds statement. Particular emphasis is placed on identifying the extent to which capital expenditure was ‘hidden’ by being immediately written off against profit. The paper argues that the flow of funds approach is particularly useful in dealing with company accounts of this period because it removes the need to make assumptions about appropriate depreciation patterns.     

Did mega-regional trade agreements reshuffle the financial influence of the US,China, and Japan in ASEAN? Evidence from the volatility-spillover effects

The Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) and the succeeding Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) were widely viewed as trade agreements aiming at containing the influence of China and raising that of the US and Japan in Asia. This study utilizes the outward volatility-spillover effect of the equity market as a proxy for a country’s financial influence and analyzes whether the signing of the TPP and CPTPP reshuffled the financial influence of the US, China, and Japan in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). The study finds that the TPP and CPTPP did boost the financial influence of the US and Japan in some ASEAN countries; however, there is no evidence that they have reduced the financial influence of China in ASEAN.     

Shock around the clock—on the causal relations between international stock markets,the strength of causality and the intensity of shock transmission: an econometric analysis

This paper investigates empirically the interrelationships between the daily stock market returns of the Nikkei 225, DAX and Dow Jones Industrial index. In contrast to former work this paper uses the succession of the markets in time to form different econometric models. In this way it is possible to detect causality not only from the USA to foreign countries but in some cases vice versa. The observation period is October 1985 to October 1997. Analysis of the structural properties leads to the examination of four separated periods. Results for Hosoya’s measure of the strength of causality and impulse response analysis facilitate a dynamic analysis of the causal structure. Increasing influence from NYSE to foreign markets can be shown, whereas influence of the foreign markets on the Dow Jones is decreasing. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A note on the behaviour of the “tail” of the mixture-poisson distribution

Abstract

A mixture-Poisson distribution is defined by where U(x) is a distribution function concentrated on (0, ∞). This distribution has been applied as a model of the number of claims occurring in an insurance business during a certain period of time.     

Completeness,interconnectedness and distribution of interbank exposures—a parameterized analysis of the stability of financial networks

This paper assesses the impact of a certain structure of interbank exposures on the stability of a stylized financial system. Given a certain balance sheet structure of financial institutions, a large number of valid matrices of interbank exposures is created by a random generator. Assuming a certain loss given default, domino effects are simulated. The main results are, first, that financial stability depends not only on the completeness and interconnectedness of the network, but also on the distribution of interbank exposures within the system (measured by entropy). Second, looking at random graphs, the sign of the correlation between the degree of equality of the distribution of claims and financial stability depends on the connectivity of the financial system as well as on additional parameters that affect the vulnerability of the system to interbank contagion. Third, the more concentrated the assets are within a money center model, the less stable it is. Fourth, a money center model with asset concentration among core banks is less stable than a random graph with banks of homogeneous size.     

Coping with risk: analysis on the importance of integrating social perceptions on flood risk into management mechanisms – the case of the municipality of Águeda,Portugal

The paper reflects on how populations prone to flood risk perceive such hazards and the way this perception has or has not been incorporated into the measures and mechanisms of flood risk management. The frequent occurrence of flooding, as well as the population's vulnerability and exposure to this risk, shows that the municipality of Águeda is a paradigmatic case for analysis of these issues. Similar to the rest of the country, the municipality of Águeda has been neglecting the multidimensional nature of flood risk. The data collected present some disparity between the proposals and technical perspectives regarding the management and mitigation of flood risk and the perception of local populations. In addition, neither knowledge of social perception of flood risk nor of the local communities is being integrated in a substantial and pro‐active way, whether in the processes of policy‐making or in the implementation of these policies. Empirical evidence equally shows that there is a clear tendency towards acceptance and coping with flood risk by the population in the municipality of Águeda. This seems to be connected to the local populations' recognition that though it is impossible to eliminate risk, there are at the same time advantages to occupying the floodplains.     

Banks’ reserve management,transaction costs,and the timing of Federal Reserve intervention

We use daily data on bank reserves and overnight interest rates to document a striking pattern in the high-frequency behavior of the US market for federal funds: depository institutions tend to hold more reserves during the last few days of each “reserve maintenance period”, when the opportunity cost of holding reserves is typically highest. We then propose and analyze a model of the federal funds market where uncertain liquidity flows and transaction costs induce banks to delay trading and to bid up interest rates at the end of each maintenance period. In this context, the central bank’s interest-rate-smoothing policy causes a high supply of liquid funds to be associated with high interest rates around reserve-settlement days.