我国职工退休年龄影响因素的实证研究

当前我国劳动力逐渐短缺,职工退休年龄直接关系到我国劳动力供给的数量和结构。使用2011年在广东省21个地市的问卷调查数据,研究影响职工退休年龄问题的影响因素。实证研究表明,工资、工龄对职工退休年龄的影响显著为正。养老金对男职工退休年龄的影响显著为负。机关事业单位职工的退休年龄更晚。教育年限对女职工的影响显著为正。已婚、...     

Retirement behavior and retirement plan designs: strategies to retain an aging workforce

Certain retirement and retiree health plan design features trigger different retirement behaviors among top performers and low performers and among workers of different wage levels. However, previous research has revealed little of these effects. Using a unique data set, this article shows how specific design features affect workers' retirement behavior, allowing employers to focus on those most likely to influence the most productive workers to delay retirement.     

Shifting responsibility to workers: the future of retirement adequacy in the United States

While many 401(k) participants at large companies can expect replacement of nearly 100% of preretirement income, not all workers participate in their 401(k) plan. Moreover, the authors show that even among participants, the extent of retirement preparedness depends on defined benefit (DB) plan coverage and retiree medical benefit generosity. Given recent trends in the elimination of DB plans and retiree medical subsidies and the voluntary nature of 401(k) participation, retirement income responsibility is increasingly shifting to workers. The authors discuss how employers might help workers meet their retirement income needs in this changing environment.     

Impact of Replacing a Defined Benefit Pension with a Defined Contribution Plan or a Cash Balance Plan

Abstract

Four pension plan conversions are examined to determine the impact on retirement benefits of workers. The study was based on interviews with top management, employee surveys, and actuarial analysis of retirement benefits under the old and new pension plans. In general, workers who leave the firm prior to the age of early retirement can expect increased benefits under the new defined contribution and cash balance plans, whereas older, more senior workers can expect to accrue smaller benefits after the plan conversions. Recognizing these potential adverse effects, the employers in our studies provided various types of transition benefits to existing workers or gave employees the choice of remaining in the old defined benefit plan. Employee surveys reveal that younger workers are more supportive of the new pension plans than are older workers. These case studies also indicate that communication by managements with their employees is very important to the successful implementation of plan conversions.     

Making Federal Pension Policy Work

Abstract

Millions of Americans retire while they are still productive. Of these, many will have the resources to enjoy all of their golden years. Unfortunately, many others will face economic hardships after they have exhausted their own resources but have become too frail to return to work. Part of the problem is that the current pension system is fraught with financial incentives that push ablebodied elderly workers into retirement just when they should instead be encouraged to remain in the workforce to accumulate additional retirement assets. This paper recommends a number of ways to change federal pension laws in order to encourage elderly workers to remain in the workforce. For example, this paper recommends toughening the penalty on premature distributions, repealing the minimum distribution rules, and repealing the exceptions to the Age Discrimination in Employment Act that permit retirement plans to provide early retirement incentives and subsidies.

This paper also considers whether the government should require that all retirement plans be neutral as to the timing of retirement. In an age-neutral world, workers would always accrue more benefits if they kept working. Consequently, more workers would remain in the workforce, accumulating additional assets for their eventual retirement.

Finally, this paper also considers how federal pension policy could help counteract the tendency of Americans to retire too early because they underestimate their life expectancies, overestimate their financial resources, and fail to understand the deleterious effects of inflation. In particular, this paper recommends that the government require that virtually all retirement plans pay at least a portion of their benefits in the form of an inflation-adjusted annuity.     

Public pensions and labor supply over the life cycle

In order to remain fiscally solvent, governments of many countries have reformed their public pension schemes to encourage labor supply at older ages. These reforms include reductions in the generosity of public pensions and reduced penalties for working past the normal retirement age. In this paper, we consider how reforms to public pension systems affect labor supply over the life cycle. We put the recent empirical evidence on the effect of government pensions on labor supply in a life cycle context, and we present evidence on the effectiveness of tax reforms for stimulating labor supply over the life cycle. Our main conclusion is that the labor supply of older workers is responsive to changes in retirement incentives. The labor supply of younger workers is less responsive. Thus the trend towards lower taxes on older workers in many developed countries should continue to fuel their trend towards later retirement.     

Forced retirement risk and portfolio choice

Current literature on the effect of labor income on portfolio choice overlooks that workers face a risk of being forced to retire before their planned retirement age. Using data from the Health and Retirement Study, this paper finds that the forced retirement risk is both significant and highly correlated with stock market fluctuations. Using a life-cycle portfolio choice model, this paper shows that forced retirement risk makes labor income near retirement stock-like. Therefore, contrary to conventional wisdom, those who are still working but near retirement should have a lower share of risky assets in their financial portfolios than retirees do.     

Sounds great, but what's in it for me? Helping employees understand their role in the retirement planning process

The communication of retirement plans by employers to their workers has greatly improved, but in many cases still falls short of getting employees to understand their roles in planning for their own retirement. The author states that a well-designed personalized retirement savings education program encourages employees to take ownership of their retirement plan. Three employee profiles are examined in the context of the personalized retirement education process.     

Worries and plans as individuals approach retirement

The primary objective of an employment-based retirement plan is to provide a secure and adequate income for workers throughout retirement. In the defined contribution (DC) framework, asset accumulation is a means to the end, but not the end. Drawing retirement income from savings and paying for health care expenses in retirement are the two issues that concern individuals the most as they approach retirement. This article examines the attitudes of near-retirees regarding these risks and their plans for managing them. The author discusses how DC plan design can have a major impact on how individuals convert their retirement savings to retirement income; differences in survey responses between those who have consulted a financial advisor or other financial professional and those who have not; and the role of trust in implementing advice.     

渐进式差异化退休年龄的决定机制、经验借鉴与政策建议

退休年龄本质上是劳动者在职期间的劳动贡献与退休后所享福利之间的均衡。公平、合理、科学的确定退休年龄,对劳动者在生命周期不同阶段(在职期间与退休之后)的福利具有十分重要的影响。借鉴我国台湾地区经验,结合大陆实际,以工作年限为基础,采用渐进式、差异化的退休年龄政策,即采取"95(99)=标准退休年龄+工作年限"的思路,在"95制"、"96制"、"97制"、"98制"和"99制"五个方案进行优选渐进,对不同类型劳动者(工种、受教育程度、性别等)应采取差异化的退休年龄政策。     

How Did the Elimination of the US Earnings Test above the Normal Retirement Age Affect Labour Supply Expectations?*

We look at the effect of the 2000 repeal of the earnings test above the normal retirement age on retirement expectations of workers in the Health and Retirement Study, aged 51 to 61 in 1992. For men, we find that those whose marginal wage rate increased when the earnings test was repealed, had the largest increase in the probability to work full-time past normal retirement age. We do not find significant evidence of effects of the repeal of the earnings test on the probability to work past age 62 or the expected claiming age. On the other hand, for those reaching the normal retirement age, deviations between the age at which Social Security benefits are actually claimed and the previously reported expected age are more negative in 2000 than in 1998. Since our calculations show that the tax introduced by the earnings test was small when accounting for actuarial benefit adjustments and differential mortality, our results suggest that although male workers form expectations in a way consistent with forward-looking behavior, they misperceive the complicated rules of the earnings test. Results for females suggest similar patterns but estimates are imprecise.     

How Behavioral Finance Can Inform Retirement Plan Design1

Several key lessons for pension design have emerged in the last decade from behavioral economics and finance research. This article analyzes the insights from this literature on how workers decide to save, manage their retirement investments, and draw down their assets in retirement. The aim is to understand how workers and retirees deviate from the rational, well‐informed agents that underpin economic theory, public policy, and often retirement plan design. The evidence suggests that many people save too little, others make poor investment decisions, and still others spend their accumulated assets too quickly in retirement. The “behavioral” reasons for such tendencies include overconfidence, limited self‐control, the overvaluation of the present at the expense of the future, susceptibility to “framing,” and an aversion to realizing losses. By shedding light on why people fail to achieve an ideal outcome on their own, this literature offers practical guidance to plan sponsors and policymakers who must design, regulate, and evaluate the institutions that help provide for economic security in old age. More specifically, the literature suggests that the plan design should be made automatic for the many individuals unwilling to exercise full control over their retirement savings choices. Recommended design features include automatic enrollment, scheduled annual savings increases, and default investment options or managed account programs that represent optimal portfolio choices.     

Affordable retirement: light at the end of the tunnel

Compared to previous studies, the 2004 Replacement Ratio Study from Aon Consulting/Georgia State University shows an increase in the amount of income today's workers need at retirement to maintain their preretirement standard of living. After describing the study's replacement ratio findings, the authors estimate lump sums needed at retirement and required adjustments for both nonincreasing annuities and retiree medical expenses. They then describe steps innovative plan sponsors can take to encourage participants to understand and undertake their responsibility to acquire the substantial personal savings needed for a comfortable retirement.     

Issues for Implementing Phased Retirement in Defined Benefit Plans

Abstract

U.S. society is aging. The nature of work has changed from work that requires physical strength to work based on knowledge. As a result, workers are beginning to phase into retirement rather than going directly from full-time work to full retirement. From a retirement income perspective, many final-average-pay defined benefit plans have features that make phased retirement difficult at best and detrimental at worst. U.S. pension law and regulations present barriers to phased retirement if the phased retiree wants to receive a portion of available pension benefits during phased retirement.

This paper examines private sector options to encourage phased retirement and to eliminate the disincentives that currently affect defined benefit plans. It offers alternative calculations of final average pay that do not penalize the part-time worker. It also demonstrates that the plan’s early retirement reduction and late retirement increase can be set to maintain actuarial equity throughout phased retirement. The paper presents benefit calculations with equal actuarial values for various payout patterns.

The paper discusses the coordination between phased retirement and subsidized early retirement. Finally, the paper notes some of the changes in ERISA that will be needed to facilitate phased retirement in defined benefit plans, especially for participants who want to receive pension distributions while working part time.     

Exploring the pension ‘X factor’ for generation Y men

In order to reduce state dependency in retirement, current UK pension policy automatically enrols employees into workplace pensions. A key component of success is preventing workers opting-out of the workplace scheme. However, Australian research examining auto-enrolment policy indicates that young men prioritise enjoying life over retirement saving. This article seeks to inform financial services marketing within the new pension auto-enrolment context through examining attitudes towards retirement and pensions among young men in the United Kingdom. Qualitative data is gathered from five dyadic interviews, thematic analysis reveals salient issues of widespread mistrust, negative perceptions of retirement and limited knowledge of auto-enrolment coupled with confidence in future earnings and a desire for greater control. The article concludes with implications for pensions communications planning.     

论我国不同地区职工养老金差异及对策

本文运用保险精算的知识,构建了养老保险基金平衡模型,研究工资水平、参保年龄和退休年龄等因素对职工退休后领取养老金的影响,找出其影响程度,并据此提出解决东、中、西部地区职工养老金差异一些建议和对策,以期为我国养老保险制度的发展和完善提供一些理论方面的借鉴。     

The Political Feasibility of Increasing the Retirement Age: Lessons from a Ballot on the Female Retirement Age

In 1998, the Swiss voters approved of an increase in the female retirement age within the public pension system from 62 to 64. The referendum, being on a single issue only, offers a unique opportunity to explore the political feasibility of pension reforms and to apply theoretical models of life-cycle decision making. Estimates carried out with municipality data suggest that the outcome of the vote conforms well with predictions drawn from a theoretical model. Young agents, elderly and—to a lesser extent—middle-aged men favor an increase in female retirement age, while middle-aged women strongly oppose it. Richer communities and those with a high proportion of self-employed or a low fraction of blue-collar workers are more likely to opt for a higher retirement age. Ideological preferences and regional differences also play a considerable role.     

Longevity Risk Management in Singapore's National Pension System

Although annuities are a theoretically appealing way to manage longevity risk, in the real world relatively few consumers purchase them at retirement. To counteract the possibility of retirees outliving their assets, Singapore's Central Provident Fund, a national defined contribution pension scheme, has recently mandated annuitization of workers’ retirement assets. More significantly, the government has entered the insurance market as a public‐sector provider for such annuities. This article evaluates the money's worth of life annuities and discusses the impact of the government mandate and its role as an annuity provider on the insurance market.     

金融危机对拉美国家私营养老金的影响及经验启示

2008年爆发的金融危机对全球经济产生了重要影响,也对拉美国家私营养老金制度的发展产生了巨大冲击。文章介绍了拉美国家私营养老金制度的改革路径和养老基金概况,从养老金资产价值、投资收益率、投资组合、雇员、制度覆盖面和缴费密度方面切入,分析了金融危机对拉美私营养老金制度的影响。在现状分析的基础上,得出了要保障私营养老金制度可持续运行的一些经验启示:构建多元化的混合型养老金体系,增强退休和养老金支付的灵活性,积极运用生命周期投资策略,实施多元化和分散化投资,以养老金长期收益作为投资目标,建立社会风险应急储备基金和政府担保机制,以及加强员工退休教育。     

Revisiting wage,earnings, and hours profiles

For the youngest cohorts whose entire working life can be observed, hours start falling much earlier than wages. Wages do not fall (if they fall at all) until one׳s late 60s. The data suggest that many workers start a smooth transition into retirement by working progressively fewer hours while still facing an upward-sloping wage profile. This pattern is not an artifact of staggered abrupt retirement or selection. This evidence imposes restrictions on dynamic models of the aggregate economy, and provide updated numerical profiles that can be readily used in quantitative macroeconomic analysis to incorporate this new pattern into aggregate models.