欧债危机:原因与影响

具有雄心勃勃欧洲建设计划的欧盟目前遇到了欧债危机这样的大坎儿,乃至欧元能否维系都遇到了挑战。那么,欧债危机何以发展到今天的程度?原因多多!请看本栏目文章《欧债危机:黑云压城城欲摧》。在全球化的今天,一方有危机,八方都会不同程度地受到影响。欧债危机虽然对中国直接冲击不大,但间接影响明显,欧债危机主要通过贸易途径、金融途径、非接触性传导等途径影响中国经济,请看本栏目文章《欧债危机影响中国经     

欧债危机专题

<正>2009年底爆发的欧洲主权债务危机,对欧元区经济造成重大冲击,并波及全球经济。受欧债危机拖累,欧元区至今仍然徘徊在复苏边缘,世界经济也面临着很多的不确定性。作为世界第二大经济体以及世界第一大贸易国,中国经济的运行时时受到欧债危机及危机背景下世界经济变动的影响,研究欧债危机发展演变的内在机理、研判欧债危机对世界经济以及中国经济可能的影响、了解各国对欧债危机的应对策略并为我所用,都是当前宏观经济分析与调控中迫切需要研究的课题。为此,国家自然科学基金委特别设立应急项目"欧洲主权债务危机的影响及对策研     

欧债危机：阴霾散去紫气东来

“欧猪五国”走向分化，系统风险阴霾散去从去年8月份开始，随着欧债问题的再次陡然升温，我们也对欧债问题进行了持续的跟踪、预判。时至今日，随着欧洲央行两轮长期债融资计划的实施以及希腊难题终获阶段性解决，我们认为虽然距离“欧猪五国”最终走出危机泥潭仍有相当长的路要走，但是对资本市场造成严重冲击的欧债危机却已经是阴霾散去。     

欧债危机中的CDS

自2009年底欧债危机爆发以来,尽管欧洲各国和IMF等国际组织采取了各种措施对问题国家进行“拯救”,但是欧债危机依然没有缓解。究其原因,除了欧元区制度设计存在缺陷,政治家们“各怀鬼胎”外,CDS在欧债危机中也扮演了重要角色,在一定程度上左右着危机演化的进程。     

欧债危机：回顾与展望

文章回顾了2012年欧债危机的形势变化,分析了在解决欧债危机的道路上欧盟已取得的有利因素以及仍然面临的阻碍,指出目前来看欧债危机最严重的压力阶段已基本过去,尽管一些深层因素远未解决,一些政经事件可能还会诱发短期性市场动荡,但欧洲列国应对债务危机的路线图日渐清晰,2013年开始欧洲经济有望从底部缓慢走出。新形势下,中欧经济合作将迎来更多的机遇,应当把握这种机遇。     

欧债危机：有坎坷无大碍

欧债危机情况严峻且复杂,但没有必要过分悲观。11月初．G20峰会顺利落幕和希腊放弃“公投”表明,欧债危机有坎坷,但无大碍。     

比欧债危机更危险的问题

欧债危机逐渐成为人们关注的焦点,但在欧债危机背后,人们忽略了一个更加重要的事实——欧洲经济基本面的恶化。单纯地解决欧债危机,而舍经济基本面问题于不顾,只会将欧债危机引向深入。因此,分析和考察欧洲经济基本面,并进行适当的结构改革,才是解决欧债危机的根本出路。     

比欧债危机更危险的问题

欧债危机逐渐成为人们关注的焦点．但在欧债危机背后，人们忽略了一个更加重要的事实——欧洲经济基本面的恶化。单纯地解决欧债危机．而舍经济基本面问题于不顾，只会将欧债危机引向深入。因此．分析和考察欧洲经济基本面，并进行适当的结构改革，才是解决欧债危机的根本出路。     

从欧债危机看中国债务情况

欧债危机愈演愈烈,将对全球经济产生重大影响。文章首先分析欧债危机产生的原因,并分析我国目前的债务情况及相关风险,然后将欧债危机与我国债务问题进行比较分析,最后进一步提出欧债危机对我国的启示。     

欧债危机的影响分析及前景展望

着重分析了欧债危机对全球经济的影响,并通过建立计量模型对欧债危机给我国出口的影响进行了实证分析,结果显示欧盟经济下滑以及欧元贬值对我国出口的影响比较显著。从欧债危机的前景看,短期内欧债危机难有实质性改观,欧元区核心国家进一步爆发债务危机的可能性仍较大。最后对欧债危机的解决对策进行了探讨。     

Variable Rate Debt Instruments and Corporate Debt Policy

Sustained high rate of inflation has led to the creation of debt instruments with variable interest rate. The availability of these debt instruments presents management with the problem of the choice of the optimal debt portfolio. This paper deals with this problem assuming a given, and optimal, debt to equity ratio. Given expected monetary value maximization, an efficient frontier is derived in terms of the expected net income and probability of bankruptcy, where net income is defined as operating income minus debt repayment. This efficient frontier is shown to be also mean-variance efficient. It is also shown that in most cases the optimal debt portfolio includes more than one debt instrument. In other words, the firm will avoid the policy of minimizing the expected cost of its debt repayments or the policy of minimizing the costs of bankruptcy. The optimal solution itself is affected by market variables like the relative expected cost of different debt instruments and by firm specific variables like the variability of its operating income stream, and the covariance between the operating income and the debt repayments.     

Debt Specialization

This paper examines debt structure using a new and comprehensive database on types of debt employed by public U.S. firms. We find that 85% of the sample firms borrow predominantly with one type of debt, and the degree of debt specialization varies widely across different subsamples—large rated firms tend to diversify across multiple debt types, while small unrated firms specialize in fewer types. We suggest several explanations for why debt specialization takes place, and show that firms employing few types of debt have higher bankruptcy costs, are more opaque, and lack access to some segments of the debt markets.     

Debt Dynamics

We develop a dynamic trade‐off model with endogenous choice of leverage, distributions, and real investment in the presence of a graduated corporate income tax, individual taxes on interest and corporate distributions, financial distress costs, and equity flotation costs. We explain several empirical findings inconsistent with the static trade‐off theory. We show there is no target leverage ratio, firms can be savers or heavily levered, leverage is path dependent, leverage is decreasing in lagged liquidity, and leverage varies negatively with an external finance weighted average Q. Using estimates of structural parameters, we find that simulated model moments match data moments.     

中国政府债务可持续性和债务风险动态评估研究

债务杠杆率和债务可持续性是评估债务风险的两个重要指标。我国目前面临高政府债务杠杆率、高赤字率及经济下行压力。本文通过对债务杠杆率计算方法的分解以及对债务可持续性的分析发现:提高政府部门的投资效率将是降低当前政府部门债务杠杆的一个有效手段;当前国际所通用的债务上限标准并不适用于我国。本文还通过构建SVAR模型,进一步对我国债务情况进行了实证分析,发现财政赤字率和经济增长率的变化在当期对债务杠杆率产生的影响较小,其影响主要发生在其后的两到三年。针对这一分析结果,本文提出了相应的政策建议。     

Asset Maturity, Debt Covenants, and Debt Maturity Choice

The existing research on debt‐maturity under asymmetric information has focused on the impact of differential information regarding asset quality on the debt maturity decision. This research has generally indicated the optimality of short‐term debt financing as a vehicle of mitigating the adverse selection problem. In this paper, I consider the impact of information asymmetry regarding the maturity structure of cash flows on the debt maturity decision. In this context, long‐term debt is generally the form of debt financing most effective in alleviating the adverse selection problem. I also show that costs of adverse selection may induce some mismatching of debt maturity and asset maturity in the presence of significant transaction costs.     

Drilling and Debt

This paper documents a previously unrecognized debt-related investment distortion. Using detailed project-level data for 69 firms in the oil and gas industry, we find that highly levered firms pull forward investment, completing projects early at the expense of long-run project returns and project value. This behavior is particularly pronounced prior to debt renegotiations. We test several channels that could explain this behavior and find evidence consistent with equity holders sacrificing long-run project returns to enhance collateral values and, by extension, mitigate lending frictions at debt renegotiations.     

政府管债技术论

政府的债务问题属于经济增长与发展中的问题,对债务进行管理,需要从经济增长与发展的大环境角度出发。经济的持续稳定增长,再加上有良好的财政状况,政府的债务不一定就对政府造成财政负担。     

Strategic Debt Service

When firms experience financial distress, equity holders may act strategically, forcing concessions from debtholders and paying less than the originally-contracted interest payments. This article incorporates strategic debt service in a standard, continuous time asset pricing model, developing simple closed-form expressions for debt and equity values. We find that strategic debt service can account for a substantial proportion of the premium on risky corporate debt. We analyze the efficiency implications of strategic debt service, showing that it can eliminate both direct bankruptcy costs and agency costs of debt.